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I doubt these companies have the ability to spend money on upgrading their ships and private islands when they aren't operating.  They are just trying to survive at the moment.

The stock market is closed today, for Good Friday.  

I read it as it will be officially published on April 15, and the "DATES: This action is effective on [INSERT DATE OF PUBLICATION IN THE FEDERAL REGISTER]" (which they say earlier will be April 15.   

The big things:

  • Order is in effect for 100 days or until this has been downgraded from public health emergency

  • pages 5+ has the specific steps a line has to take, which include mitigation onboard, training, social distancing (on a cruise ship), sufficient ventilators onboard to not require US hospitalization, repatriation plans for passengers that cannot use commercial air flights or Coast Guard help.

  • They cannot disembark or re-embark cruise staff or passengers without Coast Guard approval until further notice.

The requirements to be allowed to sail before the removal of emergency status are brutal. I don't see any way anyone sails for 100 days or until the removal of emergency status, because the requirements are essentially impossible to achieve for a cruise ship.

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20 minutes ago, AGSLC5 said:

I just counted this would put us in July... I had a strong feeling when the Casino department put out offers for July and August that they figured that would be when we would be allowed to sail again. 

Exactly what I told my husband last week... My daughters graduation cruise isn’t looking good 

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I interpreted it to mean this new order superseded the previous order, so 100 days from today. 
Though the ban could be lifted early, that sounds like a logistical nightmare for the cruise lines to react to begin staffing ships and for passengers to arrange flights, schedule new vacation times from work, etc. on a shorter notice. It would seem that a firm “return to sail” date would be best for all.

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11 hours ago, Zambia-Zaire said:

June 21st would 100 days from March 14th.

Unclear when the 100 days starts to run.  It was set to be re-published in the Federal Register (re-starting the 100 days) but it seems that it has possibly been withdrawn (meaning they may be further revising it): 

Editorial Note: The agency has requested this document be withdrawn from publication after placement on public inspection. The document will remain on file through close of business on April 13, 2020. A copy of the agency's withdrawal letter is available for inspection at the Office of the Federal Register.

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/04/10/2020-07677/no-sail-order-and-suspension-of-further-embarkation-notice-of-modification-and-extension-and-other

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12 minutes ago, jticarruthers said:

I rolled my May cancellation to September ... not real confident in that timeframe but pretty sure anything before August is definitely cancelling and August is pretty questionable ...

I rolled my May cancellation to August, bringing me exactly 30 days past the end of the CDC's new 100 day no-sail ruling thru mid-July. We will see what the next couple months bring. I am SO glad I smartened up and used MEI for the first time during my last booking, definitely gonna need their help as we sort through these back to back cancellations 😞

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It will be interesting to see how the new start is handled since the expiration is fluid. 100 days is one of the options, but it can also end if the Secretary of Health and Human Services no longer declares a public health emergency or if the CDC Director rescinds or modifies the order. Do the cruise lines go ahead and cancel all cruises for 100 days? If the order is rescinded prior to the 100 days, how fast can they scramble to bring crew back and book those sailings? The order says crew cannot embark ships, so they it's not like they'll be ready day one. My $0.02 (and that's it's probably not worth that) is that once the order expires or is rescinded, they'll start to restaff and while doing so, they will try to fill the ships to the capacity allowed at that time. The first few sailings once they resume will most likely not be anywhere near full. Like I said, just my opinion/thoughts. 

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When do we all think the cruise lines will make a decision to cancel past 5/12?  Obviously, we the consumer(cruisers) know about the news the CDC has published.   I would think they would want us know ASAP.  Keeping us in the dark will only generate more questions for them to answer which they don't need!

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1 hour ago, danv3 said:

Unclear when the 100 days starts to run.  It was set to be re-published in the Federal Register (re-starting the 100 days) but it seems that it has possibly been withdrawn (meaning they may be further revising it): 

Editorial Note: The agency has requested this document be withdrawn from publication after placement on public inspection. The document will remain on file through close of business on April 13, 2020. A copy of the agency's withdrawal letter is available for inspection at the Office of the Federal Register.

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/04/10/2020-07677/no-sail-order-and-suspension-of-further-embarkation-notice-of-modification-and-extension-and-other

It's pretty clear to me...the order on March 14, 2020(the date of publication) is subject to modification & additional stipulated conditions, as set forth in this Order. The Order "shall continue" in operation.....

The March 14 Order is being renewed "to" not "from" the Operations Order, signed by the CDC Director. Lawyer speak, I know; but, that's how they writes things. To, From, Shall...key words; but, the bottomline for me: I'm just waiting for stipulation1.

On April 9, 2020, CDC renewed the No Sail Order and Other Measures Related to Operations Order signed by the CDC Director on March 14, 2020—subject to the modifications and additional stipulated conditions as set forth in this Order. This Order shall continue in operation until the earliest of (1) the expiration of the Secretary of Health and Human Services’ declaration that COVID-19 constitutes a public health emergency; (2) the CDC Director rescinds or modifies the order based on specific public health or other considerations; or (3) 100 days from the date of publication in the Federal Register.

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15 minutes ago, RBRSKI said:

When do we all think the cruise lines will make a decision to cancel past 5/12?  

I'm guessing the new dates of cancellation will be coming very soon...probably within the next couple of days. I don't see # 1 or #2 (above) changing so that leaves #3.

So the question is....does the 100 days start on April 9 or March 14 ?

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7 minutes ago, Zambia-Zaire said:

It's pretty clear to me...the order on March 14, 2020(the date of publication) is subject to modification & additional stipulated conditions, as set forth in this Order. The Order "shall continue" in operation.....

The March 14 Order is being renewed "to" not "from" the Operations Order, signed by the CDC Director. Lawyer speak, I know; but, that's how they writes things. To, From, Shall...key words; but, the bottomline for me: I'm just waiting for stipulation1.

On April 9, 2020, CDC renewed the No Sail Order and Other Measures Related to Operations Order signed by the CDC Director on March 14, 2020—subject to the modifications and additional stipulated conditions as set forth in this Order. This Order shall continue in operation until the earliest of (1) the expiration of the Secretary of Health and Human Services’ declaration that COVID-19 constitutes a public health emergency; (2) the CDC Director rescinds or modifies the order based on specific public health or other considerations; or (3) 100 days from the date of publication in the Federal Register.

 

Actually the more I read it, the more clear it gets.  The last paragraph of the order (on page 9 of the PDF) is pretty much dispositive.   It's 100 days from the publication of "this Order" in the Federal Register and that hasn't happened yet.  Best case, today is day 0 of the 100 days; more likely it's day -3.  

 

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But, at the end of the document it states:

"This order is effective upon publication in the Federal Register and shall continue in operation until the earliest of (1) the expiration of the Secretary of Health and Human Services’ declaration that COVID-19 constitutes a public health emergency; (2) the CDC Director rescinds or modifies the order based on specific public health or other considerations; or (3) 100 days from the date of publication in the Federal Register."

IMHO, the 100 days or earlier starts from the date of publication.

Mike

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28 minutes ago, danv3 said:

 

Actually the more I read it, the more clear it gets.  The last paragraph of the order (on page 9 of the PDF) is pretty much dispositive.   It's 100 days from the publication of "this Order" in the Federal Register and that hasn't happened yet.  Best case, today is day 0 of the 100 days; more likely it's day -3.  

 

Publication could take anywhere between 5-10 days. The last order was effective March 14 and published in the Federal Register on March 24.

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