Will cruising be put on pause again?

[Cakemeister]

I hope not. 

I was looking at South Africa and it took about three weeks for cases to peak after omicron started. (11-30 to 12-17, give or take). In the US, it looks like the current spike in cases started around 12/16, so we might have another week or two of awfully high case counts, then it will start going down. Of course, the demographics are different so the time span will be different.

covid-19 case count south africa - Google Search

covid-19 case count u.s.a - Google Search

[Vancity Cruiser]

On 12/31/2021 at 5:38 AM, AAD said:

Got the shows for 12/31 Symphony and looks pretty pared down…? 

 

 

Wow! That is an incredible bummer. I assume all the entertainment staff is in quarantine? I am on the next sailing of Symphony, hopefully they will be able to put on a show or two. My favourite thing about Oasis class ships is the amount of high quality nightly entertainment.

That being said, I understand the current cruising environment, and made the decision not to cancel. Therefore, I will not complain about lack of entertainment, port changes, protocols etc. I will not demand compensation for missed ports or lack of shows. Royal allows me to cancel up to 48 hours before the cruise and so the decision is on me, not them.

[MrMarc]

I think the CDC warning will prevent that from happening by lowering passanger counts and increasing the cruise lines vigilance.  It may also make people's expectations more reasonable.

[mrfrixx]

Cruising will be paused.  It's coming.  But not all of them.  Most likely ones in the U.S. will still operate, but too many European ports will close off, forcing them to add new stops, remove some, or relocate ships.   WIth the European season about to start and massive unrest and covid surge, you can expect cancellations.   I hope I'm wrong, but things are just getting started with Omicron or whatever varient they will come up with every few months.

[Wend]

On 12/30/2021 at 10:51 AM, CrznTxn said:

We have a cruise scheduled 01/09 and barring cancellation by the cruise industry we are going cruising. As of a few minutes ago the Bahamas cleared Freedom OTS to disembark on CoCo Cay so that conspiracy is now defunct. We will test as always, be careful in our events onboard and enjoy yet another cruise as we have since August. Flexibility and care is the name of the game now, onboard ship and at home. Even with additional protocols the cruises have been enjoyable and we cannot wait for the next ones.

We also have a cruise scheduled for 1/9. We just called Celebrity to cancel it. They gave us quite a hard time, not happy. Too many risks that can't be mitigated. Sure there are less than 1% of ppl getting sick on ships, but you can't social distance on a ship like at home. So chances are higher on getting the virus on the ship and going home with it. Also, the crew is getting sick, not the passengers. Let's not even start with the airlines, their ppl are sick too, another huge risk. We have to fly to our ports. Overall, it's a shitshow and you all are taking a huge risk. Ports, excursions cancelled, less crew. It really spoils the whole experience and we pay a lot for these cruises, I want #1 customer service.  If youre retired you can possibly get stuck on the ship, no worries. Miss ports, maybe, but not me. I pay for the whole experience not a stressful vacation. That's just me. TC

[twangster]

Omi's peak is estimated to be upon us shortly.  Calmer heads are starting to prevail in some governments.  Capacity on ships will fall because it always does in January.  Christmas and NYE peaks had really poor timing with Omi.  If Omi had hit in January the result would have been massively different for the cruise lines. 

Just really bad timing this time.   That doesn't mean there needs to be massive changes or even minor changes.  Follow the science as cruise lines have been.  Don't follow cable news and whatever you do don't use social media as an information source.

[Wend]

8 minutes ago, twangster said:

Omi's peak is estimated to be upon us shortly.  Calmer heads are starting to prevail in some governments.  Capacity on ships will fall because it always does in January.  Christmas and NYE peaks had really poor timing with Omi.  If Omi had hit in January the result would have been massively different for the cruise lines. 

Just really bad timing this time.   That doesn't mean there needs to be massive changes or even minor changes.  Follow the science as cruise lines have been.  Don't follow cable news and whatever you do don't use social media as an information source.

It is bad timing, our cruise was cancelled 2x and we cancelled our 1/9. Such a bummer, who wants to cancel a cruise? NOBODY! We just think it's too risky for us. 

[Wend]

On 12/30/2021 at 11:09 PM, RWDW1204 said:

As long as RC can provide food and drink (mainly alcohol), that's all the satisfactory service we need.

How about seating and service in dining, that'll go down as reported cases state that it's the crew getting sick! No thanks. I'll wait until spring. Have fun! TC

[twangster]

16 minutes ago, Wend said:

It is bad timing, our cruise was cancelled 2x and we cancelled our 1/9. Such a bummer, who wants to cancel a cruise? NOBODY! We just think it's too risky for us. 

Everyone needs to do what is right for them.  No judgement.  

[smokeybandit]

27 minutes ago, twangster said:

Omi's peak is estimated to be upon us shortly.  Calmer heads are starting to prevail in some governments.  Capacity on ships will fall because it always does in January.  Christmas and NYE peaks had really poor timing with Omi.  If Omi had hit in January the result would have been massively different for the cruise lines. 

Just really bad timing this time.   That doesn't mean there needs to be massive changes or even minor changes.  Follow the science as cruise lines have been.  Don't follow cable news and whatever you do don't use social media as an information source.

I think for the  long term benefit of the cruise industry, omicron hit at the perfect time. 

[JimnKathy]

On 12/30/2021 at 7:04 PM, twangster said:

Some of these countries have 20-30% vaccination rates. Many don't have very much of a health care system during good times.  

It's a symbiotic relationship.  Cruise ships need ports as much as ports need cruise ships.  

Yes, the pandemic sucks. 

Exactly.

The ports aren't closing down to be azzhats to the cruise industry...heck, their local economies get hammered terribly when they can't do business.

The challenge these 3rd World nations have is that their healthcare systems really struggle with all of the issues related to the pandemic.

From what can be surmised in my part of the country (West Tennessee), the Omicron variant is a minor issue for the fully-jabbed citizens who are otherwise healthy. It's mostly those who already have several co-morbidities AND who aren't vaxed who are experiencing anything other than minor cold symptoms requiring hospitalization.

While I could be wrong, I would be surprised if the worst of this pandemic isn't behind us by the end of January.

[Sstj]

3 hours ago, Wend said:

We also have a cruise scheduled for 1/9. We just called Celebrity to cancel it. They gave us quite a hard time, not happy. Too many risks that can't be mitigated. Sure there are less than 1% of ppl getting sick on ships, but you can't social distance on a ship like at home. So chances are higher on getting the virus on the ship and going home with it. Also, the crew is getting sick, not the passengers. Let's not even start with the airlines, their ppl are sick too, another huge risk. We have to fly to our ports. Overall, it's a shitshow and you all are taking a huge risk. Ports, excursions cancelled, less crew. It really spoils the whole experience and we pay a lot for these cruises, I want #1 customer service.  If youre retired you can possibly get stuck on the ship, no worries. Miss ports, maybe, but not me. I pay for the whole experience not a stressful vacation. That's just me. TC

Could not agree more. This is precisely why I canceled my 1/8 Symphony sailing. 

[Nancy L]

Did you get a future cruise credit or refund?  I am canceling mine in the morning.  They had better not give me a hard time. 

[Sstj]

7 hours ago, Nancy L said:

Did you get a future cruise credit or refund?  I am canceling mine in the morning.  They had better not give me a hard time. 

I booked with a TA and got a refund (including my non-refundable deposit), but I had to push pretty hard for it. I am done with the stress of cruising for a while. Good luck with yours and sorry to hear you’re canceling as well.

[Ray]

On 1/2/2022 at 10:35 PM, mrfrixx said:

 getting started with Omicron or whatever varient they will come up with every few months.

Newest one just discovered is variant IHU, comes from france 

[WhiteSoxFan]

IHU could be a big nothing burger.  First sequenced in early November weeks before Omicron.  It hasn't really taken off whereas Omicron obviously has.

[smokeybandit]

1 hour ago, Ray said:

Newest one just discovered is variant IHU, comes from france 

If time and money was unlimited, there'd be dozens and dozens of variants that get discovered.

[Ray]

14 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

If time and money was unlimited, there'd be dozens and dozens of variants that get discovered.

We ( the common people ) have been told by those in charge numerous times that covid is here to stay!

If it is then we just need to get on with life now!

Im not saying remove masks or social distancing as we still have a  responsibility to look after ourselves and others but we cant go on locking things down everytime someone sneezes! 

[Ampurp85]

1 hour ago, Ray said:

We ( the common people ) have been told by those in charge numerous times that covid is here to stay!

If it is then we just need to get on with life now!

Im not saying remove masks or social distancing as we still have a  responsibility to look after ourselves and others but we cant go on locking things down everytime someone sneezes! 

[PetraElise]

Not RC, but NCL has just cancelled two cruises due to covid positive crew members. One is already two days into an 11 night cruise, and the other was due to embark tomorrow.  Will be watching very closely ahead of our late January RC cruise, mostly to have a back up plan in case we get the “cruise cancelled” email AFTER we arrive across country to the departure city, like my friend who was supposed to be on Getaway tomorrow.  

[Vancity Cruiser]

25 minutes ago, PetraElise said:

Not RC, but NCL has just cancelled two cruises due to covid positive crew members. One is already two days into an 11 night cruise, and the other was due to embark tomorrow.  Will be watching very closely ahead of our late January RC cruise, mostly to have a back up plan in case we get the “cruise cancelled” email AFTER we arrive across country to the departure city, like my friend who was supposed to be on Getaway tomorrow.  

I just heard this as well. Really struggling with decision to get on a cross continent flight in 48 hours. I need to keep reminding myself that for every story we hear there are many more cruises going with no problems

[WAAAYTOOO]

I had not heard about any NCL cancelled cruises….but if true, there goes the nonsense about COVID coming onto cruise ships with the unvaxxed children ! 

[twangster]

On every ship is a Captain and a Staff Captain.  If those folks test positive they may not have a choice.  

NCL has a thin bench to start with.  

[Yesiamthere]

Could the cruise lines survive financially if they had to shut down again?  If CDC does try to shut them down I do believe that act would be the final push for people to take a major stand on all the stupidity of the last year.  I’m thinking that CDC will not do a major shut down because, hopefully, they learned from the government saying get vaccinated or lose your job.  They thought that would push everyone to get vaccinated, when in reality, nurses and assistant care givers quit instead of getting vaccinated. Now we have a shortage, which is the reason hospitals are at their limit.  Not due to space availability but staff shortages.  

[Kiwili]

On 1/1/2022 at 9:09 AM, Cakemeister said:

I hope not. 

I was looking at South Africa and it took about three weeks for cases to peak after omicron started. (11-30 to 12-17, give or take). In the US, it looks like the current spike in cases started around 12/16, so we might have another week or two of awfully high case counts, then it will start going down. Of course, the demographics are different so the time span will be different.

covid-19 case count south africa - Google Search

covid-19 case count u.s.a - Google Search

Keeping me hopeful that my 1/23 ABC cruise keeps !!

[gavin923]

14 minutes ago, Yesiamthere said:

Could the cruise lines survive financially if they had to shut down again?  If CDC does try to shut them down I do believe that act would be the final push for people to take a major stand on all the stupidity of the last year.  I’m thinking that CDC will not do a major shut down because, hopefully, they learned from the government saying get vaccinated or lose your job.  They thought that would push everyone to get vaccinated, when in reality, nurses and assistant care givers quit instead of getting vaccinated. Now we have a shortage, which is the reason hospitals are at their limit.  Not due to space availability but staff shortages.  

Same situation with the airlines. 

[BB1]

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but when Florida won their lawsuit against the CDC, didn't that establish that the CDC didn't have the authority to shut down the cruise industry. Maybe someone has that authority but i don't know who that is. If anyone knows, please enlighten me.

[Yesiamthere]

1 hour ago, BB1 said:

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but when Florida won their lawsuit against the CDC, didn't that establish that the CDC didn't have the authority to shut down the cruise industry. Maybe someone has that authority but i don't know who that is. If anyone knows, please enlighten me.

I’m totally confused too.  It seems like CDC has “power” to restrict cruising that will end on January 15th then their advice is just that - advice - a recommendation.  A positive for cruising is that the people on the cruise that have tested positive have little or no symptoms.  

[twangster]

The lawsuit technically isn't over (that I'm aware of).  It could play out in the court for years.  

Florida received an injunction that was challenged but ultimately survived.  An injunction is not a final ruling or outcome.

However the CDC could just as easily introduce new evidence or a different motion now with Omicron in play.  That might not be the proper terminology for their legal options.  Need lawyer types to comment.  

It's also possible the CDC recognizes that cruise ships represent the least of their worries right now.  When a high rise building is engulfed in flames it seems kind of pointless to make sure no one is parking in a dedicated parking spot.  Cruise ships represent such a tiny threat vector, a drop of water in an ocean of rain falling on the US right now.     

[Vancity Cruiser]

7 hours ago, PetraElise said:

Not RC, but NCL has just cancelled two cruises due to covid positive crew members. One is already two days into an 11 night cruise, and the other was due to embark tomorrow.  Will be watching very closely ahead of our late January RC cruise, mostly to have a back up plan in case we get the “cruise cancelled” email AFTER we arrive across country to the departure city, like my friend who was supposed to be on Getaway tomorrow.  

I’m hearing Norwegian Encore has turned around as well. Looking at cruise mapper it appears this is in fact true.

So that’s 3 NCL cruises cancelled or cut short

[smokeybandit]

Only 10 days until the CSO expires and cruise lines can use more current and up to date protocols than the archaic ones in the CSO

[Matt]

58 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Only 10 days until the CSO expires and cruise lines can use more current and up to date protocols than the archaic ones in the CSO

I don't know anymore than you, but in this current climate of Omicron, I don't see any protocols being rolled back until the spike ends and things start to calm down.

Pre-Omicron, I would have agreed that at least a few rules would have been relaxed.

[smokeybandit]

23 minutes ago, Matt said:

I don't know anymore than you, but in this current climate of Omicron, I don't see any protocols being rolled back until the spike ends and things start to calm down.

Pre-Omicron, I would have agreed that at least a few rules would have been relaxed.

That's just it. The CSO was written for the longer lifespan of old variants, not Omicron. Changing 14 day quarantines down to the CDC-recommended 5 will make a huge difference for crews. Focus on those who are actually sick ( which we've seen so far is very few) and stop testing people for post-cruise just because they're unvaccinated (especially in light of the evolution of vaccine effectiveness pivoting from prevention of disease to mitigation of severe disease).

 

At this point it's not about rolling back protocols, but adjusting them to meet the current climate of what covid has evolved into.

In another month or two once omicron wanes, then start rolling back protocols, especially the ones that really make no sense at all (like the strictness of AO)

[PG Cruiser]

It's sad to see some cruises being canceled or cut short due to COVID numbers with crew members.  I hope (selfishly) this all passes before the Wonder inaugural.

[mac66]

If the cruise lines can provide the service, entertainment and port stops we're paying for I'm all for continuing to cruise. If the service suffers and there is no entertainment and the ports are skipped then I'm out.   Our cruise in early Dec went well. We have one in Feb and one in March so it's wait and see what happens but then if they don't get canceled.

[PG Cruiser]

On 12/30/2021 at 1:50 PM, PG Cruiser said:

My original post is more from the vantage point of the cruise lines.  Will the cruise lines get to a point where they say, "This is too much trouble for us!"?

 

[cruisellama]

It’s critical for the crew to be healthy- especially the ops teams and hospitality teams.   If you can’t operate the ship, no point on having passengers.  This just happened to the QM2 in Barbados.  Too many crew positive to continue operation.  Until the severity of infection is a factor for continuance,  we’ll see this swirl.