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This morning, Royal's stock price (RCL) is down 78.04%. I am watching it today with an intention to buy. Is anyone looking at this with similar intentions?

The last letter has language that there is an intent to resume cruising on April 11, and like everyone else, am not sure where we will end up.

Does anyone have any thoughts?

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4 minutes ago, DunkelBierJay said:

This morning, Royal's stock price (RCL) is down 78.04%. I am watching it today with an intention to buy. Is anyone looking at this with similar intentions?

The last letter has language that there is an intent to resume cruising on April 11, and like everyone else, am not sure where we will end up.

Does anyone have any thoughts?

As bad as RCCL stock is doing, it's in a much better place than Carnival or Norwegian! 

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Just now, FManke said:

As bad as RCCL stock is doing, it's in a much better place than Carnival or Norwegian! 

Nah, 3 weeks ago RCL was around $130 and now it's at $24.  Carnival and Norwegian tended to be much lower to begin with (under $50.  Doug Parker would list the stock prices daily on his Cruise Radio News Podcast).  That's a much bigger overall loss.

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8 minutes ago, SpeedNoodles said:

I've been watching it for a week, and was to jump on it when it hit $26.  It did, then I realized I have NO idea how to go about doing it and closed my browser (the 2020 human version of the ostrich sticking it's head in the sand)

Just a few steps to get started. Open an account with TD Ameritrade, Schwab, Vanguard etc. Fund the account with an electronic transfer from your bank. Once all is confirmed buy the stock. I wish I would have waited to buy. I bought at the beginning of the month at $82, and $63. OUCH!!

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10 minutes ago, SpeedNoodles said:

Nah, 3 weeks ago RCL was around $130 and now it's at $24.  Carnival and Norwegian tended to be much lower to begin with (under $50.  Doug Parker would list the stock prices daily on his Cruise Radio News Podcast).  That's a much bigger overall loss.

I guess your right. I was thinking more about current stock pricing.

Why has RCCL been so hard hit then when they have so far been relatively unscathed by Covid-19, as compared to the other cruiselines? 

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5 minutes ago, Bean79 said:

Just a few steps to get started. Open an account with TD Ameritrade, Schwab, Vanguard etc. Fund the account with an electronic transfer from your bank. Once all is confirmed buy the stock.

@SpeedNoodles are you following all of this???  I got lost after "open an account", time to put my head back in the sand. lol

@Bean79..kidding, good tips.  Thank you.  Might look into it further now that I have some time off at home. ?

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1 minute ago, Lovetocruise2002 said:

@SpeedNoodles are you following all of this???  I got lost after "open an account", time to put my head back in the sand. lol

 

Back when I was a zoo keeper we had a White-Cheeked Gibbon we named "Bailey" who would get stressed out by various things.  We could tell when he was stressed because he'd put his arm/elbow up to his head and cover an ear.  I'm officially in "Bailey Mode".

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Just now, SpeedNoodles said:

Back when I was a zoo keeper we had a White-Cheeked Gibbon we named "Bailey" who would get stressed out by various things.  We could tell when he was stressed because he'd put his arm/elbow up to his head and cover an ear.  I'm officially in "Bailey Mode".

Did you have two others that covered their mouth and eyes?

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Just now, FManke said:

Did you have two others that covered their mouth and eyes?

I wish, that would have been hysterical.  We did have a Lion-Tailed Macaque who had a broken finger that he was never able to bend again, and when he held his hand up he'd essentially flip you off because it was the middle finger.  The high schoolers loved him.

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All jokes aside though, how many of you actually have 100 shares or more in Royal stock and is it worthwhile?  I've been trying to gather information and I will admit, this is one area that I don't really know anything about.  From initial research, it looks like the only real advantage is OBC and even that has a lot of restrictions if you read the fine print.  Any insight is much appreciated.

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9 minutes ago, Lovetocruise2002 said:

All jokes aside though, how many of you actually have 100 shares or more in Royal stock and is it worthwhile?  I've been trying to gather information and I will admit, this is one area that I don't really know anything about.  From initial research, it looks like the only real advantage is OBC and even that has a lot of restrictions if you read the fine print.  Any insight is much appreciated.

I have 101 shares as of March 6th LOL. I believe RCL can weather this storm and come out on top. It may take years to get back to the price I paid for the stock, but I am in it for the long haul. I think the OBC is a nice benefit as well as this stock historically paying you Dividends. I have read about some people not getting the OBC because their cruise was already deeply discounted. I am sure some of the Senior members of this board can enlighten us further.

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1 minute ago, TLowder said:

I plan to back up the truck when it reaches $5 per share and load up.

What are the benefits to being a shareholder?

How do you know it won't drop to $2 a share? Or are you willing to take the short term loss for the hopefully, eventual gains?

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25 minutes ago, SpeedNoodles said:

What happens if a stock drops to zero?  I don't know that that ever happens, but I don't know that it doesn't either.  

The stock would most likely be de-listed from the exchange (making it impossible to purchase through normal channels; I think the minimum price to stay listed on the NYSE is...what...$1?) well before it hit zero.

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The old adage goes - don’t try and catch a falling knife because it will cut you.

Wait until it stabilizes along support levels which it blew through all the support levels so there really isn’t any left. It’s in free fall with daily trading at five - six times its normal volume. That’s never a good sign on the falling side. Lots of sellers and few buyers around.

Be careful at the moment with money that you need. If it’s disposable income and you want to try, than by all means go for it.  We are not done with this situation and April 10th can come  and go quickly without resumption of cruises. Be wary if you are a new investor. 

I thought $30 was going to be a support level but it went right past and never stopped on it’s decline. 

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26 minutes ago, monctonguy said:

IF they announce longer delays to cruising..the stock will most likely plunge again...if I was a betting person..I would hold out as the chances of it going lower yet are pretty good..imho.

I haven't bought a single stock since my twenties when McDonnel Douglas bit me in the butt. Ever since, it's been mutual funds and leave it alone. With the buy opportunities now, especially in the cruise industry, my non-expert opinion on buying low and selling high is to follow @monctonguy's course and see what the announcements will be in a week or two and jump on it if they start cruising again...(insert typical disclaimer that this is not financial or investment advice, blah blah)...I am only tracking RCL and CCL As of this writing RCL is 80.72% down from the beginning of February and CCL is 79.31% down. With each refresh of the price, the number of shares I can buy goes up, and the potential profit if prices return to pre-virus levels is astounding.

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We had RCCL stock but when we divested out of the market in October 2019 (hallelujah !!!!!) we got rid of everything. We never tried to use it to get any OBC b/c by the time they loosened the rules for getting OBC we were already out of the market - or pretty close to that time.

Have we been tempted to get back in ?  NOPE.  We are as happy as 2 clams to be seeing our "safe" investments increasing every day rather than going down, down, down.  We both still have a little "funny money" in the market but it's less than 2% of my portfolio so I don't really care what happens there.  Trust me when I say...that the best decision I ever made in my entire life was to get out of the stock market last year.  Dan and I calculate that we would have lost more than a million dollars together if we had stayed.  Will it come back ?  Yes, I'm sure it will but I haven't got that kind of time !!  This is all the retirement money I will ever have.  If I had lost close to 30% (or more) of it in these past few weeks I would be devastated financially.  No cruise stocks for me !!!!

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Buying stock of a company particularly affected by a crisis while that crisis is still on-going and even in an upswing...does not seem like a wise decision to me unless you have the money to blow and feel like gambling.  Buying stock in a company because you like it much more than the average person is also not wise in my view (insert diversified portfolio lecture here).  

Just don’t want financial novices to see this thread and think this is normal investing behaviour or want to jump on the bandwagon to feel like part of the crowd. 

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OK, first off, while I work in the financial industry I am not a licensed broker or financial advisor! I'm just an IT guy who happens to have learned a decent amount about investing from my dad and my own experiences buying a handful of stocks over the last 20 years.

Secondly, @SpeedNoodles and @Lovetocruise2002, get ready to go beyond Bailey mode. ?

That said...

If you are serious about investing in Royal, understand that to hit that 100 share minimum for shareholder benefits you're still going to be spending about $2,200 at the current price of $22.03. That's definitely a lot better than the $11,300+ it was just a few short weeks ago, but that's still not pocket change. If getting the shareholder benefit is your only reason for buying, maybe reconsider because you'll have to take a LOT of cruises that actually pay you that benefit before you break even.

If you want to buy it because you love the company and think it's a good investment for the long term -- I'm talking at least 5 or even 10 years here, since that's always my minimum goal -- you'll want to read up on the company's financials and get some basic understanding of what's really going on under the hood. I just took a quick look at their annual SEC filing (called the 10-K, which was just published in February and covers through 12/31/19), and looked at their financials in particular (page 37 of the linked doc).

For me, I like that for the last 3 years at least they have had three times as much in assets (cash, investments, physical capital like the ships, etc.) vs liabilities (loans, credit lines, bonds issued, etc.). That tells me they are properly managing their finances, and the debt they have is being used to help expand the business and invest in ships / private islands / etc., rather than prop up their business or make it look better than it seems. That said, in comparison to Apple (the only individual stock I currently own), that's a lot of debt relative to assets; Apple for the longest time had zero long-term debt and almost no short-term debt; it's only in the last few years that they started issuing bonds and other debt instruments, and those are still a much smaller fraction of the total assets (which include a cash hoard that is just bananas).

The rest of the financial numbers looked good, too, although one thing surprised me -- It's been mentioned here a few times that the ticket bookings are basically break-even, and it's the on-board spending that drives actual profit. So I was really surprised to see that cruise fares are 75% of their income, while on-board spend is 25%. I would have expected the latter to be more like 35 or 40% if that's really the profit-driver. So I want to dig into that more and see if they break down how much profit comes off of each.

For me, this quick glance makes me think I might sell off some of my Apple stock (I bought it in 2000) and get a few hundred shares of Royal. But I want to dig deeper. I like their product from all three cruise lines, their leadership seems solid from what I've read over the last couple years, and the financials look good at a glance, but I still don't know RCL the company that well yet. Mistakes like the $18/night DBP "intern goof" and others that we've talked about here seem to happen with some disturbing regularity, and point to some possible issues that might make investing in them riskier than it already is, given the industry.

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1 minute ago, Lovetocruise2002 said:

And this is where I checked out...??

Back to checking prices...

Honestly that’s when I checked in. @JLMoran is speaking in-depth financial discussions and he makes a lot of sense. I am still monitoring but will stay on the sidelines and wait it out or look for stabilization. 

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33 minutes ago, Tim B. said:

Honestly that’s when I checked in. @JLMoran is speaking in-depth financial discussions and he makes a lot of sense. I am still monitoring but will stay on the sidelines and wait it out or look for stabilization. 

I was just kidding. There’s a long time running joke here that @JLMoran has a way with words.  No doubt that he has good insight. 
 

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1 hour ago, JLMoran said:

OK, first off, while I work in the financial industry I am not a licensed broker or financial advisor! I'm just an IT guy who happens to have learned a decent amount about investing from my dad and my own experiences buying a handful of stocks over the last 20 years.

Secondly, @SpeedNoodles and @Lovetocruise2002, get ready to go beyond Bailey mode. ?

That said...

If you are serious about investing in Royal, understand that to hit that 100 share minimum for shareholder benefits you're still going to be spending about $2,200 at the current price of $22.03. That's definitely a lot better than the $11,300+ it was just a few short weeks ago, but that's still not pocket change. If getting the shareholder benefit is your only reason for buying, maybe reconsider because you'll have to take a LOT of cruises that actually pay you that benefit before you break even.

If you want to buy it because you love the company and think it's a good investment for the long term -- I'm talking at least 5 or even 10 years here, since that's always my minimum goal -- you'll want to read up on the company's financials and get some basic understanding of what's really going on under the hood. I just took a quick look at their annual SEC filing (called the 10-K, which was just published in February and covers through 12/31/19), and looked at their financials in particular (page 37 of the linked doc).

For me, I like that for the last 3 years at least they have had three times as much in assets (cash, investments, physical capital like the ships, etc.) vs liabilities (loans, credit lines, bonds issued, etc.). That tells me they are properly managing their finances, and the debt they have is being used to help expand the business and invest in ships / private islands / etc., rather than prop up their business or make it look better than it seems. That said, in comparison to Apple (the only individual stock I currently own), that's a lot of debt relative to assets; Apple for the longest time had zero long-term debt and almost no short-term debt; it's only in the last few years that they started issuing bonds and other debt instruments, and those are still a much smaller fraction of the total assets (which include a cash hoard that is just bananas).

The rest of the financial numbers looked good, too, although one thing surprised me -- It's been mentioned here a few times that the ticket bookings are basically break-even, and it's the on-board spending that drives actual profit. So I was really surprised to see that cruise fares are 75% of their income, while on-board spend is 25%. I would have expected the latter to be more like 35 or 40% if that's really the profit-driver. So I want to dig into that more and see if they break down how much profit comes off of each.

For me, this quick glance makes me think I might sell off some of my Apple stock (I bought it in 2000) and get a few hundred shares of Royal. But I want to dig deeper. I like their product from all three cruise lines, their leadership seems solid from what I've read over the last couple years, and the financials look good at a glance, but I still don't know RCL the company that well yet. Mistakes like the $18/night DBP "intern goof" and others that we've talked about here seem to happen with some disturbing regularity, and point to some possible issues that might make investing in them riskier than it already is, given the industry.

Good information.   I’m trying to time the bottom like a lot here are.  This will be my first time purchasing individual stocks, except for employer company stocks.   I have been researching for a couple weeks now.  But I think it’s the time to get my feet wet. 

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7 minutes ago, Hutcherl said:

I’m trying to time the bottom like a lot here are.

Forgot to say this earlier. Don't try to time the bottom. You really can't, and as @loki007 said, it's going to take time to go back up anyway. IF you truly believe the price is going to keep going down for a bit, and you definitely want to buy the stock, then after setting up your brokerage account you can enter what's called a Limit Order, which is a standard type of stock order that every brokerage site offers.

Normally when you buy a stock, you're doing what's called a Market order -- buying it immediately at whatever the current price is. When you do a Limit order, you're changing it to say, "Don't actually buy this until the price is at or below the price I've specified." Normally, that just lasts for the day; if the price doesn't hit your mark then the order is canceled.

But you can also specify to keep the order in place until you cancel it (that is, mark it as "Good until Canceled"). That adds the rule, "If the price doesn't hit my mark today, keep this order open until it does hit my price, or I tell you to give up".

This combo is commonly used when the price is going down steadily; just pick a price (X) that you're comfortable buying it at, and don't worry about if it's going to be the bottom or not. If you think $15 is a good price to buy, make that your Limit Price and be ready for it never to reach that. If you won't buy for a penny over $10, set that to the price and take your chances on that level. As soon as the price reaches or goes below that level, the buy takes place.

Keep in mind that the price never changes by just a penny at a time, although most days the price doesn't change by more than a few cents at once. It could be $15.07 and then in the next second drop to $15.03, then back up $15.05, then down to $14.99. So if you set $15 as your threshold you might get it for exactly $15, but more likely it'll be for something like $14.97.

 

Market fun fact side note: There's another order type called a Stop order that's often used to make sure your investment doesn't go through a particular floor without automatically selling. It's like the opposite of a Limit order, in that you say "I want to sell X number of shares when the price is at or below $Y". Those can also be kept active until canceled, and a lot of investors use those to protect themselves from a sudden drop in the market.

I'm guessing that there's some portion of RCL investors that read the tea leaves about this pandemic and put in a lot of Stop orders to auto-sell their RCL when it dropped below marker values like $100, $80, $60, etc. In a free-falling market like this one, those Stop orders trigger so fast and sell off so much at once that they actually can make the situation worse for a time, artificially dropping the price like a rock depending on how many of those orders got triggered all at once.

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18 minutes ago, JLMoran said:

I'm guessing that there's some portion of RCL investors that read the tea leaves about this pandemic and put in a lot of Stop orders to auto-sell their RCL when it dropped below marker values like $100, $80, $60, etc. In a free-falling market like this one, those Stop orders trigger so fast and sell off so much at once that they actually can make the situation worse for a time, artificially dropping the price like a rock depending on how many of those orders got triggered all at once.

I'm a big believer that this greatly exacerbates the stock market decline in the hard hit sectors.  Investors often do this when they see something they know will impact a certain segment of the market.  Here it's a lot of travel companies that are taking a bit hit.  This increases the trading volume (flow) of a company and other investors that are paying attention to those trends will also jump in and sell.  It lessens the demand for the stock even more and lowers the price.

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JLMoran has a lot of great info here! I think we will know more when the boats start sailing again and the planes are packed! You might not buy at the bottom but you should be looking good 5 years later. Like it was mentioned steadily investing in Growth Stock Mutual funds is a safer investment over the long term. I only bought stock in RCL because I believe in the company, and its future outlook. I believe it will see more of it's profit from onboard sales and all the upcharges at CoCo Cay with the new areas they just opened up.

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