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Do you think RC will force passengers to take the vaccine in order to cruise?


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I hope that getting the vaccine is not a forced requirement in order to cruise.  I’ve started to hear how the vaccine has caused a reaction in some and I don’t want to take it until i see that ppl are not getting any dangerous reactions from it.   I don’t want to be forced to take a vaccine.  I don’t mind being tested, wearing masks, social distancing and extreme “washee, washee” but not forced to put something into my body that I don’t know how it will affect me in order to cruise.   Everyone is different so what may not do anything to some, may cause danger to others.

 

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I object to the use of the term "force".  "Require" is a much better term.  Since cruising is a voluntary activity, nobody's ever "forced" to do anything.

The news always takes the "doom and gloom" approach because it garners way more ratings than "things will be fine".   They always latch onto the worst case scenario discussions because it gets th

I am going to try a positive spin on this (with some less than positive "bits of data"): 1).  The Vaccines (and there will be many of them) are proving to be safe and extremely effective.  No amo

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Everyone on this message board understands and sympathizes with your concern.  In fact, all of us share it to one degree or other.

However, I believe that all cruise lines will require the vaccine at some point.

Some of my additional thoughts on the matter:

  • The cruise lines will be unable to require a vaccine until it is widely available to the public.  My guess, that will happen Late April or early May, but that's just a guess.
  • The cruise lines may not have a choice in the matter as it is could be a CDC requirement. Please note that some airlines are considering proof of vaccination before flying.
  • As we learn more about the vaccine, we'll probably be better able to predict who will react to badly to the vaccine.  The cruise lines will probably offer an exception to those passengers. (In fact, I don't see how they could avoid this!)
  • At least some legal scholars have opined that the cruise lines will have to offer full refunds to anyone who refuses to take the vaccine and cannot take a previously booked cruise.
  • I do not expect the vaccination requirement to be permanent. In 12-18 months, the virus will be effectively over and there vaccine will be a moot point.
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Given the public statements of cruise line executives - that the vaccine is The Game Changer... and that I think it's reasonable to assume many of the popular ports of call will require it, it's almost a certainty that it will be required to board a cruise.

That said, I think by the time the vaccines become available to the general public, there will be an established body of knowledge regarding each vaccine's common (and uncommon) side effects. 

 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, monctonguy said:

We will see...new strain shutting down airplane/travelers  all over the world to travelers from the UK...this is the norm......we will have to see if this is another yearly set-back......not a good sign for cruising if this doesnt get under control...vaccine or not.

I agree with this statement 100%!! I don't see anything moving till at least April/May 2021 and that is being hopeful. There hasn't been mock sailings as of yet and word has it that it won't being till late Jan/early Feb, if that, which means given the 60 day CDC requirement before sailings can be offered to passengers, takes this crisis into April/May. 2021 will be known as "COVID II - The Revival"!!

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48 minutes ago, monctonguy said:

News getting worse all around......for everything.

The news always takes the "doom and gloom" approach because it garners way more ratings than "things will be fine".  

They always latch onto the worst case scenario discussions because it gets them clicks/views.

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My question on the topic of requiring a COVID vaccine that I don’t think anyone has discussed….. If a COVID vaccine is required, then wouldn’t that open the door to requiring a whole host of other vaccines for communicable diseases?  It seems like a slippery slope for the cruise companies to try to manage. Cruise companies would be called on to require vaccinations for the flu, measles, mumps, meningitis, etc. next.

Interested to hear others opinions and thoughts.

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5 minutes ago, Koepper said:

My question on the topic of requiring a COVID vaccine that I don’t think anyone has discussed….. If a COVID vaccine is required, then wouldn’t that open the door to requiring a whole host of other vaccines for communicable diseases?  It seems like a slippery slope for the cruise companies to try to manage. Cruise companies would be called on to require vaccinations for the flu, measles, mumps, meningitis, etc. next.

Interested to hear others opinions and thoughts.

Most people in developed nations never encounter it when international travel is mainstream or between other developed nations.  When a citizen of certain countries travel internationally or you visit specific regions vaccinations are a common requirement to travel.

More importantly we don't know yet if current vaccines are neutralizing.   Does a vaccine "kill" the virus or does the vaccine simply turn someone into a asymptomatic carrier still capable of spreading the virus?  We know vaccines stop an individual from suffering from the worst symptoms and effects of the virus but we don't know if vaccines neutralize the virus on contact.  The data isn't in yet, the science hasn't been studied.  We don't know yet. 

Airlines face the same questions.  They fear that if a vaccine isn't neutralizing then a vaccine requirement to travel doesn't prevent spread or protect the destination area if that destination hasn't vaccinated their population.  If that's the case then travel still needs to be restricted.

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They have stated the a vaccine wont stop you from getting it or spreading it....so untill everyone has it..its never going to go away.....its not a vaccine IMHO like they have produced in the past.

 

If you have a measles vaccine or polio etc, you arent scared of getting or or giving it to ppl..thats the point of a vaccine. Seems not to be the case with this..

 

It's a mess....and with the  US saying it iwlll be fall of 2021 before they can vaccinate all those want want to be(which leaves about 40% of th epopulation NOT vaccinated).....its a disaster.

 

 

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2 hours ago, monctonguy said:

New Health Minister(not what you guys call them in the US but I am drawing a blank) for Biden said its probably going to be fall now before vaccines are wide-spread in the US.....

 

News getting worse all around......for everything.

I've got balance that against this article: https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/texas-news/texas-to-receive-620000-doses-in-second-week-of-covid-19-vaccine-distribution/2509383/

It says 620,000 doses in one week for Texas alone, which is enough for about 1.5% of the population.  Assuming that rate is typical for all of the states, and there is some increase in production as the year progresses, I'd suggest that Dr. Fauci is being pessimistic.

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5 hours ago, monctonguy said:

We will see...new strain shutting down airplane/travelers  all over the world to travelers from the UK...

The new strain of virus has the UK government is bricking it......

The rate it can spread is a lot quicker the OG strain, new strain also found in Italy, also no guarantee vaccine will work on new strain 

This is why we are going back into a lockdown on 26th if new strain takes hold our health service wont be able to cope! 

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6 minutes ago, princevaliantus said:

That's not a mock sailing from a U.S. port.

Ooops sorry didnt realise you meant from US port as you never said in post. And im pretty sure a sailing from anywhere in the world right now is a mock sailing and im certain those back in RC head office in Miami will be ensuring that the minimum recommendations laid down by CDC are in place on every ship no matter where it sails from. 

Also pretty sure RC will be relaying the results of the "not a mock sailing as its from singapore not US" to the relevant bodies in the US..

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20 minutes ago, Ray said:

Ooops sorry didnt realise you meant from US port as you never said in post. And im pretty sure a sailing from anywhere in the world right now is a mock sailing and im certain those back in RC head office in Miami will be ensuring that the minimum recommendations laid down by CDC are in place on every ship no matter where it sails from. 

Also pretty sure RC will be relaying the results of the "not a mock sailing as its from singapore not US" to the relevant bodies in the US..

The mock sailing MUST be out of a U.S. Port. Per CDC:

(a) As a condition of obtaining or retaining controlled free pratigue for conducting a simulated voyage, or obtaining and retaining a COVID-19 Conditional Sailing Certificate, a cruise ship operator must document the approval of all U.S. port and local health authorities where the ship intends to dock or make port during a simulated voyage or a restricted passenger voyage.

 

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While it is true as Twangster points out that the mRNA vaccines (the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines currently in circulation) won't "neutralize" SARS-CoV-2 no vaccine in history has been introduced with eradication as an absolute endpoint. Disease eradication is a result of limiting the pathogenicity of a virus until it is no longer capable of producing a disease, e.g., polio, TB.

If you read about such things, there are still polio and TB outbreaks that are a result of populations in sufficient scale not receiving polio or TB vaccines. Malaria is another example. The disease or pathogen seems to disappear until it reappears. There is no vaccine but it is preventable with widely employed mitigation measures and pharmaceutical prophylaxis. HIV is another - no vaccine but transmission is preventable with condum use and medications to reduce viral load in infected persons making them less likely to spread the disease. The cruise industry has laid out exactly how it intends to prevent and contain C-19 on its cruise ships if allowed to re-start cruising. That's a start. 

Think back to the WHO goal of "flattening the curve" articulated in February and March. The point of that was to keep hospitals and medical staff that were treating COVID-19 patients from being overwhelmed. It's a good thing to keep that in mind. The same thing applies with the current goal for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines with a slightly more ambitious goal. Keeping people out of the hospital altogether so that the disease that SARS-CoV-2 produces, C-19, is benign enough to be much like the common cold. That goal is entirely achievable with a vaccine just like it is with the Influenza vaccines that targets the H1N1 pathogen. The disappearance of the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen may ensue, it may not. That all depends on it's survival trajectory which is only now being studied.

Are we to expect the cruise lines to eradicate the virus on board it's ships for them to re-start cruising? Nope. he CDC asked the cruise lines to come up with protocols to reduce the risks that COVID would be introduced to shipboard life by passengers or crew and that if a case developed it could be adequately contained and the infected could be disembarked without causing undue burden on port facilities and local hospitals. They did that.  

This concept is important to understand as it relates to the question of whether cruise lines, upon resumption of revenue operations, will require vaccines to board a ship. I believe that they won't because they believe their layered approach is already pretty good. The cruise lines don't currently require immunizations for influenza or many other common pathogens still floating around out there. It is a passenger's responsibility to comply with local port of call immunizations should that passenger want to disembark in a local requiring specific immunizations to do so.

There is, however, a larger question that bears upon restarting at all let alone the question of requiring or not requiring a vaccine.  Will the CDC require the COVID pandemic to be at an end in the US before cruises can restart - vaccine or not? If so, when will the COVID pandemic be declared at an end? By definition, a pandemic ends when the virus responsible for it is no longer prevalent. Right now, although it varies by country, a community spread ends when prevalence is < 5%. Another way to look at that is the number of tests it takes to find 1 active COVID-19 case. Experts seem to think that if you're only finding 1 case in 150 to 200 tests administered, the virus is contained. 

The US has a long way to go before national prevalence rate is < 5% or we're only finding one C_19 case in every 150 or so tests. National prevalence is about 10% right now. Some states with very high prevalence rates skew the national average upward. New cases are running about one in every 50-90 tests nationally. In FL the state average is about 9% and in Broward County, home of Port Everglades, its between 6.5% and 8% most of the time. In Miami its close to the state average, in Orlando, closer to Broward Co.  I point this out to illustrate how the restart of cruising shouldn't be pegged on national but rather local prevalence rates, vaccine requirements or not. The CDC may stand on a national prevalence rate, though, now that a vaccine is available. Local numbers would be better indicators for a restart. Local numbers < 5% are probably achievable but it's going to take a while.  If we can get past the hysteria of the holiday surge, we're going to see numbers back under 5% in FL counties hosting cruise ports probably by mid-February, early March. Caribbean ports will be next and European ports will follow prevalence rates in US ports. I'd urge folks to watch these prevalence numbers by country, region, state and county then keep an eye on the mood of the CDC to find out when it's likely cruising will restart and when it does if there will be a vaccine mandate to board.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

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Some facts that pertain to recent posts: There is no causation between the latest SARS-CoV-2 variant named G164 and the increase in new COVID case numbers in the UK. There is a presumed relationship but it is not scientific fact. At present there is no concrete evidence that steps being taken within the EU to restrict UK access are going to provide significant PH benefit for the EU that will outweigh their enormous economic and social costs to the UK. There are some very readable articles about SARS-CoV-2 mutations, their usually benign and expected nature and that none of the nearly 4000 observed mutations including the most recent render vaccines ineffective. This is one of them:

https://www.jwatch.org/fw117348/2020/12/20/sars-cov-2-variants-uk-south-africa-cause-alarm

The individual on the United Airlines flight who allegedly had COVID-19, to my knowledge, has not been declared as having it. He is believed to have suffered cardiac arrest and because of unsubstantiated statements from passengers who witnessed his demise he is being presumed to have had COVID by United Airlines. The airlines and the CDC are working together to contact trace passengers who potentially came in contact with the deceased pending the release of information regarding his COVID status.   

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32 minutes ago, princevaliantus said:

a cruise ship operator must document the approval of all U.S. port and local health authorities where the ship intends to dock or make port during a simulated voyage or a restricted passenger voyage.

 

This section does not say mock sailings can only be from US, what it does say is 

 

If you want to sail be it a mock or restricted sailing from any US port then you have to get approval from the ports the ships plan to sail from or visit prior to sailing.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, JeffB said:

Will the CDC require the COVID pandemic to be at an end in the US before cruises can restart - vaccine or not? If so, when will the COVID pandemic be declared at an end?

Indeed a critical question but that is exactly what a CDC employee on the cruise ship task force has stated.  Full stop until the pandemic is over.  

13 minutes ago, JeffB said:

the restart of cruising shouldn't be pegged on national but rather local prevalence rates

Cruising by its very nature doesn't draw exclusively from one county.   People travel from many areas within a state crossing many local counties to get there.  Some fly to cruise.  If we have people coming from an area with higher prevalence traveling through areas to reach an area of low prevalence won't that contribute to spread and tend to increase prevalence in the local area where a cruise ship is home ported?  

Broward county alone won't put enough bodies on a ship to reach even reduced capacity figures, certainly not week after week.  Once cruising restarts even on a limited basis people will travel to cruise.  Some will be intrastate travel, some will be interstate travel.  The increased movement is not much different than Thanksgiving travel but on a lower scale.  There will be spread that results.  Won't the CDC consider this effect knowing it is powerless to stop domestic travel?

 

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