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JeffB last won the day on October 7

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  1. I think it is really hard to predict what RCL and Celebrity are going to do heading into March, 2021 and through the summer. The situation is terribly fluid. Some factors: If vaccines are actually distributed around 12/15/20 you're 10 weeks into distro by March 1st. There's ample evidence that the vaccines will be available on ever-enlarging scale. That is going to have a major impact on the cruising landscape. While, at first, who gets the vaccines will be limited in numbers and targeted, as production scales up - and when there is a huge market for a product companies will go out of the
  2. Celebrity is in the process of formalizing multiple changes involving 8-10n itineraries. I had an 11n/10n B2B that spanned most of March out of Fort Lauderdale. I had decided that booking was unlikely to sail in it's present configuration. So, I looked to see if the Equinox - the only ship from the RCG that is sailing the Caribbean during the traditional hurricane season (not sure about Silver Sea) was doing those two itineraries or something like them in August. Nope. Surprisingly, I was able to cancel the first leg of the B2B and rebook (same fare, different ship, same class but differe
  3. Try this ..... sort-of a combination of "this is not a personal attack against you" advice you got up thread and then lay out these facts on the table. Write them down and let your in-laws read them: What was described as a cruise line debacle in March 2020 by the press anxious to lay blame on the spread of the virus to something, accounted for < 0.05% of global COVID cases over the month of March. Italy, China and a few weeks later other countries in the EU followed by NYC were epic debacles where thousands of people not only got COVID but died in droves. 5 people died from COV
  4. Comments on my post above: First, we should dismiss the issues on Sea Dream if, as I have seen posted is true, that they weren't using the STS protocols. This just proves, yeah, we should be using those. On testing: I think from the Economist article above we can derive that RAPID Antigen tests aren't ideal for screening or surveillance given the basis upon which they are intended to be done for pre-boarding screening. The chance of a leaker who is infected getting through that process is fairly high. I have posted previously that it was my belief that RCL would be using RAPID RT/PCR
  5. I just reviewed an article in the Economist (paywalled) at another site and I'm going to post that review here and then comment about how it applies to the Sea Dream and by extension, the major lines planning to cruise from US ports or are already cruising in Europe and Asia. Finally, before we all go and watch CFB ....... another great article from the Economist. This one gets a little technical. I've touted testing here as a panacea in combating the spread of the virus. Experts agree it is but there are important caveats that I wasn't aware of in any kind of specific way. We know the RT
  6. I have a B2B, 10 & 11n, 2 slightly different southern Caribbean itineraries on Celebrity Reflection starting March 3rd. I'm with Twangster on this subject. We just don't know how RCG is going to play these. I'd like my chances of sailing if these were 4 & 5n B2Bs. I think WAAAYTOOO is thinking clearly in his view that keeping passengers in the bubble on a B2B has benefits to RCG in a whole lot of ways. So, maybe this cruise will go. I've been hopeful before only to get gut punched ..... I think I'm batting under .200 with my predictions to date. I've been wrong on guessing restart date
  7. After reading the CDC's document on their phased plan to resume cruise ship operations from US ports, a wordy and overly complex presentation that has more to do with justifying their actions than presenting a responsible plan, how testing is going to be done is a bit clearer but not yet crystal clear. Although I do not know which RAPID testing product RCG will use, I know that it will be a RAPID RT/PCR, diagnostic test not a RAPID antigen test. If you recall my post where I explained the differences in the three types of testing defined by the CDC (Diagnostic, Screening and Surveillance
  8. Not anything solid. I'm not telling you anything you probably don't know but hotels, airlines and cruise lines have developed sophisticated ways of optimizing profitability and logistics is key with the cruise lines having very large and complex logistics chains. I believe that high levels of efficiency in this aspect of the cruise line business, next to human resources, is hugely important. Making the logistics chain work efficiently and at the lowest costs is a focus for them. That's why I posted my comment about Celebrity's obsession with planning. How the cruise lines in general rela
  9. Not to be argumentative but, since we're speculating, I think RCL and Celebrity know with some level of certainty which cruises will sail and on what dates those sailings will occur. I can speak with some level of knowledge about Celebrity (1) becasue I'm interested in how a cruise gets planned and stocked for a voyage and (2) I've asked crew and Celebrity staff in the know about such things out of pure curiosity. The line is obsessive about planning, profitability of a cruise given load factors, logistics, port call arrangements and more. Of course there's some uncertainty but I would as
  10. A good step forward re C-19 testing. Keep in mind there are several categories of tests. This test is a Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT/PCR) or a molecular test. There are three ways to collect samples: (1) via a nasophayrngeal swab (the most uncomfortable), (2) A nasal swab (not terribly uncomfortable), (3) A saliva sample (spit in a collection pipette). Costco is offering #3. The RT/PCR test is the gold standard. It is a diagnostic test. All of them are subject to errors induced by collection or processing. I'm not a big fan of home administered tests when they are
  11. Two separate sailings of same ship - Costa Diadema per CruiseRadio article: The first sailing, upon re-entering Italian waters for a port call in Palermo and at the request of the Italian health authorities, all passengers and crew were tested. 7 passengers tested positive, all of them asymptomatic. I'm assuming these passengers debarked and were quarantined - that's not clear. Following that event, the crew was required to be tested again. When all received negative results, the second charter cruise was allowed to depart on October 12. https://cruiseradio.net/mediterranean-cruise
  12. Twangster, I may be wrong about this but I remember reading that on the cruise in question, there were no positives. The crew positives were on a Costa charter that sailed prior to that. It is my understanding that these positives were appropriately dealt with and authorities green lighted the charter we're talking about. Either way you're spot on regarding the unusual circumstance that Costa has to deal with vis-a-vis a potential closing by the Italians of the Italian - French boarder . These sort of complications highlight the difficulties cruise lines have operating in the COVID enviro
  13. Sailed Edge in January on a 7n Western Caribbean itinerary before "it." Tried to rebook for an Edge cruise in mid-march right after an 11n Reflection cruise. That got cancelled. We had also booked Apex for a Barcelona to Miami East bound translant that would have departed 10/22/20. That's been L&S'ed. Edge is a great cruise ship with a ton of innovative features, some a bit quirky for my tastes. We booked a deluxe inside cabin. The pricing makes this option a good one on these ships. We prefer OV on Millennium class and Balconies on Solstice class.....when they are discounted. Edge cl
  14. So what about politics and the NSO? They're in play. They're in play globally, in Europe, the UK and Asia. They involve the same arguments on both sides in most western democracies. They involve questions of government over-reach juxtaposed to the responsibility of governments to protect the public health/prevent disease spread. What's appropriate to carry out that objective and what's not. What makes sense and what doesn't. What are the costs v. the supposed public health benefits. It breaks down, in it's simplest and too often mischaracterized way, as a liberal v. conservative battle. I
  15. Great work Twangster .......... trying to make legal sense out of Maritime Law - a very specialized area of the law - or the NSO and what authority it is based on is difficult. There's been a couple of reasonable posts answering the question what is the NSO, who directed it, through what process will it expire or be extended and who makes that decision. Well, despite all the complexities interjected into this thread, a lot of it unnecessarily complicating answers to the pertinent questions, the bottom line is that the Executive directed the NSO. How did that come about? The president had
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