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More good news on the vaccine front


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I'm keeping this cruise-related, don't worry. CDC has confirmed (via a study of ~4,000 US essential workers who were monitored as they continued to work) that after two doses, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines both are 90% effective at preventing infection. And if you don't get infected, you can't spread the virus (not even asymptomatically).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/03/29/vaccine-effective-essential-workers-study/

Quote

The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines being deployed to fight the coronavirus pandemic are robustly effective in preventing infections in real-life conditions, according to a federal study released Monday that provides reassurance of protection for front-line workers in the United States.

In a study of about 4,000 health-care personnel, police, firefighters and other essential workers, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that the vaccines reduced the risk of infection by 80 percent after one shot. Protection increased to 90 percent following the second dose. The findings are consistent with clinical trial results and studies showing strong effectiveness in Israel and the United Kingdom, and in initial studies of health-care workers at the UT Southwestern Medical Center and in Southern California.

The CDC report is significant, experts said, because it analyzed how well the vaccines worked among a diverse group of front-line working-age adults whose jobs make them more likely to be exposed to the virus and to spread it.

The workers came from eight locations in six states — Arizona, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, Texas and Utah. They received vaccinations between mid-December, when the doses first became available, to mid-March, a 13-week period that included the deadly winter surge that was killing more than 3,000 people a day by January. The study is also one of the first to estimate vaccine effectiveness among participants against infection — rather than just monitoring for symptomatic cases — including infections that did not result in symptoms, according to the CDC.

Among 2,479 fully vaccinated people, just three had confirmed infections. Among 477 people who received one dose, eight infections were reported.

By comparison, among 994 people who were not vaccinated, 161 developed infections.

No deaths were reported.

...

The study is ongoing and researchers will share more details on the infections in people who were partly or fully vaccinated, known as “breakthrough infections.” Researchers are also studying whether people who became infected despite vaccination may have less severe or briefer illnesses and whether they shed a lower amount of virus for less time.

The article goes on to talk about the study design and logistical challenges it faced (e.g., having to negotiate with UPS and FedEx to get thousands of sample kits shipped out and sent back in every week), as well as other potential challenges (e.g., the comparatively small number of participants, and compliance of participants with properly taking their own nasal swabs and sending them in on time each week).

But this is great news for the ship's crews and the upcoming vaccine-mandated cruses. Crew members are probably breathing a huge collective sigh of relief as they learn about this. And with such great prevention of infection, a ship that has nothing but vaccinated crew and mostly vaccinated passengers (i.e., most kids on board won't be vaccinated) is effectively a community with true herd immunity. I would sincerely hope it would also allow for elimination of mask requirements while on board, at least while outside on the pool deck and other very well-ventilated areas. Heck, given the studies that proved the cruise lines' ventilation improvements truly blocked airborne spread of the virus across the ship, it might even allow for elimination of masks throughout.

That light just keeps getting brighter, and it's not an oncoming freight train. It's the sun rising on a cobalt blue sea, with a ship sailing serenely across the waters.

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The part that stood out to me in that article is that after one shot, there's already about 80% efficacy.  Great news for Canadians who have to wait 4 months between shots.  The plot thickens in Canada.  Just a few minutes ago, Health Canada recommended that AZ not be given to anyone younger than 55.  Maybe we can strike a new deal, Pfizer or Moderna in exchange to open Canadian ports? lol

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Part that stood out for me was the 90% effective....so 10% ineffective...and people still wonder why safety measures such as masks have to be worn.....because its not 100% .....but no doubt those who know best will still ask why when they have had vaccine ?

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This is as good a thread as any for me to ask this question.

 

With the vaccine being more plentiful and effective, it doesn't seem to me too far-fetched to think that 

the workers in the "tourist area" part of most ports can't be vaccinated, allowing passengers to at least

be able to walk around somewhere off ship.  We are hitting Falmouth in August and I love that separated

area - lots of things to do.  

 

Am I pipe-dreaming?   I know there are probably at least 1000 workers who are there, but would it be that

difficult to manage/maintain?   I don't mind staying onboard, but really want to get off for a little.  Not much

into ship-sponsored excursions.

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1 hour ago, Ray said:

Part that stood out for me was the 90% effective....so 10% ineffective...and people still wonder why safety measures such as masks have to be worn.....because its not 100% .....but no doubt those who know best will still ask why when they have had vaccine ?

We could get into a long argument and throw numbers around but I'm just going to go with what % is "good enough" ... nothing in life is 100%.

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46 minutes ago, Floski said:

This is as good a thread as any for me to ask this question.

 

With the vaccine being more plentiful and effective, it doesn't seem to me too far-fetched to think that 

the workers in the "tourist area" part of most ports can't be vaccinated, allowing passengers to at least

be able to walk around somewhere off ship.  We are hitting Falmouth in August and I love that separated

area - lots of things to do.  

 

Am I pipe-dreaming?   I know there are probably at least 1000 workers who are there, but would it be that

difficult to manage/maintain?   I don't mind staying onboard, but really want to get off for a little.  Not much

into ship-sponsored excursions.

Like with so much right now, the answer is most likely, “Yes. Eventually.”

Each island has to get supply. But the first-world countries all have first dibs due to pre-negotiated / pre-paid contracts. The US government has negotiated to send AZ vaccine to Canada and Mexico; I imagine that until it’s decided that there’s enough here / in the UK / in the EU to cover everyone in their own populations, island nations and other smaller governments will be similarly stuck waiting for handouts.

Places like St. Maarten or BVI may get supplies more quickly if they have arrangements with their “parent” government, but independent islands could be waiting for a fair while yet.

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This is honestly starting to read like a bad horror movie.  With vaccines cutting down numbers of hospitalizations and deaths they still only want to look at "case" numbers.

So glad I staggered my future sailings and have one that has nothing to do with US ports.

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1 hour ago, jticarruthers said:

We could get into a long argument and throw numbers around but I'm just going to go with what % is "good enough" ... nothing in life is 100%.

Wouldnt be a long argument...people ask and complain about the fact as to why RC are implementing the wearing of masks even when vaccine has been given...answer because its not 100% safe and they have to protect those that cruise....simple .....The End 

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This trial studied how many "essential workers" considered to be at high risk of exposure to persons infected with SARS2, by virtue of their line of work, actually became infected over varying times after vaccination. What's behind these 80% effective after the first dose and 90% after the second numbers?

3950 participants.

After the first dose of an mRNA vaccine, in a controlled for post vaccination times analysis before the second dose, eight participants tested + for COVID by PCR.

After the second dose, also in a controlled for times post vaccination analysis, 3 participants tested + for COVID by PCR

Let me reiterate that ....... 3 people out of 3950 got infected after their second vaccine dose > 14d. THREE. 

You have to read the study if this sort of thing interests you to understand how that data translates to the 80% and 90% numbers. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm?s_cid=mm7013e3_e&ACSTrackingID=USCDC_921-DM53321&ACSTrackingLabel=MMWR Early Release - Vol. 70%2C March 29%2C 2021&deliveryName=USCDC_921-DM53321 

The study did not evaluate whether or not the 8 participants that became infected were capable of transmitting the disease. In other studies that have looked at this it has been found that subjects who did become infected with SARS after becoming vaccinated had significantly lower viral loads. What that translates to is a lower likelihood an infected person can pass SARS2 on to an uninfected person. 

This trail data suggests that on a cruise ship having around 4000 passengers and crew on board, you might get 3 infections regardless of symptoms displayed by an infected person who might have boarded during the cruise. Given how the cruise lines have layered mitigation measures that include pre-boarding PCR testing, onboard surveillance (random rapid tests), ID and isolation of COVID + persons and contact tracing, the risk of a bad COVID outcome on a cruise ship is so small as to be negligible - the cruise lines want it that way and have done a remarkable job of insuring that will be the norm on all operating cruise ships.

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2 hours ago, Ray said:

Wouldnt be a long argument...people ask and complain about the fact as to why RC are implementing the wearing of masks even when vaccine has been given...answer because its not 100% safe and they have to protect those that cruise....simple .....The End 

I think you are misunderstanding how the 90% numbers are derived and how herd immunity works.  It means that if you are 100% exposed to the virus, you have less than a 10% chance of contracting it.  It makes the virus very unlikely to spread among vaccinated people - especially if they have been tested before getting on the ship.  Even if you did get it, it would not be a serious virus.

 

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14 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

There will be a small percentage of people who get covid with the vaccine. Just like there's a larger percentage of people who get the flu despite the vaccine. Really not a big deal scientifically, but surely will be made a big deal in the media.

Exactly.  The CDC will latch onto such events and use them to unscientifically support their actions.

 

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