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Domestic Cruises Unlikely to Resume This Year, Analysts Say


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The tone of the cruise industry is very interesting to me.  It seems to me that "woe is me" is the mantra.  Unfortunately, there are good reasons why cruises cannot operate now and probably will not operate for at least several more months.  That seems to fall on deaf ears in some circles.  Scholes makes the claim that the “The executive office wants to avoid anything that could raise Covid case numbers ahead of the November election.”  That would make sense on it's surface, but at the same time, there is a massive push from the Trump administration to have schools in regular session, which would cause an even more dramatic rise in COVID numbers.  That pretty much decimates Scholes' premise that the cruise lines are being used as a political chess piece. 

I do think the observation that they are not American companies and therefore not a priority for assistance is accurate, though.  But on that note, the cruise companies have avoided paying hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars in taxes and additional salaries that they would have had to pay as American companies over the years.  You can't have it both ways.

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7 minutes ago, TempoGL said:

The tone of the cruise industry is very interesting to me.  It seems to me that "woe is me" is the mantra.  Unfortunately, there are good reasons why cruises cannot operate now and probably will not operate for at least several more months.  That seems to fall on deaf ears in some circles.  Scholes makes the claim that the “The executive office wants to avoid anything that could raise Covid case numbers ahead of the November election.”  That would make sense on it's surface, but at the same time, there is a massive push from the Trump administration to have schools in regular session, which would cause an even more dramatic rise in COVID numbers.  That pretty much decimates Scholes' premise that the cruise lines are being used as a political chess piece. 

I do think the observation that they are not American companies and therefore not a priority for assistance is accurate, though.  But on that note, the cruise companies have avoided paying hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars in taxes and additional salaries that they would have had to pay as American companies over the years.  You can't have it both ways.

Piishaa!! Maybe in the U.S. of A., but over in Europe SeaDream and Hurtigruten have already begun sailing and have reported no issues as of yet (knock on wood).

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35 minutes ago, Ogilthorpe said:

Yet RCL stock is up 21.2% today 🤔

Could the 'experts' be wrong?

😮😮😮

Embracing the optimism ... for now 😁

I heard that stocks in general were up today due to good news from Moderna (vaccine testing).  But I only know  what I heard ... I actually know nothing, lol.

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41 minutes ago, Ogilthorpe said:

Yet RCL stock is up 21.2% today 🤔

Could the 'experts' be wrong?

😮😮😮

Embracing the optimism ... for now 😁

Just like the weather on a Caribbean island.  If you don't like it, just wait, it's gonna change.  

RCL stock isn't finished with the roller coaster ride.  On many roller coasters the wild and fast ride down and into a curve is always preceded by a climb to a peak.  

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3 minutes ago, Ampurp85 said:

This is a sort of bias article, so I choose not to trust this opinion.

 I'm so tired of these negative articles put out just so people click on them. Everybody's an expert, including me. Starting this December I have 4 cruises reserved thru April, 2022 and you know what? IMHO I'm going on them, nuff said.

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3 hours ago, SpeedNoodles said:

I heard that stocks in general were up today due to good news from Moderna (vaccine testing).  But I only know  what I heard ... I actually know nothing, lol.

Any positive news that potentially speeds up a vaccine deployment will make the airline, cruise and hotel stocks soar.

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On ‎7‎/‎16‎/‎2020 at 3:38 PM, Jjohnb said:

Take the investment firm analyst opinions with a grain of salt.  From having dealt with them first hand, some/many of them (like any profession) don't know half as much as they think they do and in many cases, no more than the rest of us should you choose to do your due diligence.

 

Its not that far of a stretch...I am not an investment advisor...but with the little knowledge I do have of what's going on, its not hard to say cruising wont resume this year....with the spike in cases in the Florida area(among others)....we are probably at least 4-8 weeks to get it back under control...and then they wont just open it all up....and then once they give the go ahead..I am guessing its a few weeks to get crew and everything back and up and running(remember, things don't instantly go back to normal at some point)…...

 

So yeah, almost August.....cases go down by late October…..keep it under control..get staff back and ships running again...not hard to see that being pushed to 2021 quite easily.

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8 minutes ago, monctonguy said:

Its not that far of a stretch...I am not an investment advisor...but with the little knowledge I do have of what's going on, its not hard to say cruising wont resume this year....with the spike in cases in the Florida area(among others)....we are probably at least 4-8 weeks to get it back under control...and then they wont just open it all up....and then once they give the go ahead..I am guessing its a few weeks to get crew and everything back and up and running(remember, things don't instantly go back to normal at some point)…...

 

So yeah, almost August.....cases go down by late October…..keep it under control..get staff back and ships running again...not hard to see that being pushed to 2021 quite easily.

Agreed.  On the news last night the outlook for a vaccine is promising but estimated to be widely available "in the spring".  If that proves to hold true a mid-2021 restart seems likely.  

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1 hour ago, monctonguy said:

Its not that far of a stretch...I am not an investment advisor...but with the little knowledge I do have of what's going on, its not hard to say cruising wont resume this year....with the spike in cases in the Florida area(among others)....we are probably at least 4-8 weeks to get it back under control...and then they wont just open it all up....and then once they give the go ahead..I am guessing its a few weeks to get crew and everything back and up and running(remember, things don't instantly go back to normal at some point)…...

 

So yeah, almost August.....cases go down by late October…..keep it under control..get staff back and ships running again...not hard to see that being pushed to 2021 quite easily.

And that is assuming that Florida actually does start to get the cases under control.  That seems far from a guarantee!  Waiting until 2021 seems almost a given at this point.  I am debating when to pull the trigger on buying Royal Caribbean stock...

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28 minutes ago, TempoGL said:

And that is assuming that Florida actually does start to get the cases under control.  That seems far from a guarantee!  Waiting until 2021 seems almost a given at this point.  I am debating when to pull the trigger on buying Royal Caribbean stock...

Well, we don't need Florida open in order to cruise. RCCL and others can leave out of New York or New Jersey since the numbers in these states are low. Can you hear this suggestion RCCL????

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