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Over/Under Guesstimates for Cruises Departing from American Ports


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I'm going to let some of my optimism return and say July 31st we could see a ship or two sailing.  Assuming a 5 week vaccination cycle and a few weeks post vaccination to get the ship/crew in shape, (re)trained, and ready for guests, that gives them a month to get the crew assembled/here for vaccination.

I wouldn't expect more than a couple sailing at first, but with ports already saying they're going to help with vaccinating the crew I think once the first couple ships sail the startup is going to be a lot faster than we'd expect.

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Crew vaccinations have started for at least some cruise lines. 6 weeks for those early crew to be fully inoculated,  so that's mid June. 

Since it will take some time to build up enough to crew the whole ship, I'm thinking  early to mid July 

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With the states/ports assisting in vaccination I don't think it's going to be an issue, they've got it down to a science.  The pod where I got mine was aiming for 1k/day and it's one of three in my small town.  University where I take some classes is partnered with the Walmart pharmacy there to offer weekend clinics to anyone in the community, initially they were maxing out appointments, now they're walk in.

I know in other parts of the world it's different, but here it feels like we're about half a step away from having people dressed as test tubes and syringes spinning arrows to get people driving by to stop in for a shot.  Adding a few thousand from cruise ships isn't going to be an issue.

I think the bigger hurdle right now will be getting the crew actually onto a ship, still think by the end of July we can see at least one ship sailing, if not a few.

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Right once the crews are stateside, getting them vaccinated isn't a big deal. But how quickly can they get them here based on the ongoing covid issues in other countries. Even the Philippines is having its worst covid surge so far (though it seems to be waning) and that would by far be a bad thing for crewing a ship.

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48 minutes ago, joshgates said:

I think the bigger hurdle right now will be getting the crew actually onto a ship, still think by the end of July we can see at least one ship sailing, if not a few.

I agree with this but think it will be earlier. Two reasons:

(1) The need for the cruise lines to start generating income is a significant drive of corporate plans and policy making on the mechanics of restarting. Getting crews back to ships is a routine evolution for them. The scale of the operation is just larger but the mechanics are tested and in place. 

(2) The actual numbers of ships that are going to pass through CDC's gates and start sailing in July, all things considered probably won't exceed 20% of all fleet capacity. That reduces the problems of (1) above and, I would think make the restarting, operation each line will be facing a lot simpler.

On the increase in infections within countries the lines rely on for labor, I've not dug into this as thoroughly as I might but it's been my experience from the start of the pandemic that reporting of it's impact has been exaggerated and can frequently be misleading. I think this is probably the case in both India and the Philippines. My thinking here rests on the belief that RCL, for example, would not have stopped crew members of Indian origin from returning to work without a careful analysis of labor needs given restart plans. They've matched labor needs with availability carefully, I think. They can get to what they need from Eastern Europe and Asia. 

I also think that there is a tendency to take national COVID data and apply it as if every region in the country is experiencing the same level of new cases. That is never the case. Regionality is the hallmark of SARS2. I suspect that is true in the Phillipines and probably in India although India is a different beast. Some of that behavior is explainable, a lot of it isn't. The bottom line is that the cruise lines, having measured labor needs v. availability will get what they need to restart at some lelel that they calculate will be profitable. At first, the margins will be small so that proof of concept is obtained. As we move forward into late summer and fall, I can see 20% capacity moving to 50% and then 75%.  

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This is as good of a place to put this than any on this forum. I've searched the literature for a graph that compares number of vaccines administered versus new cases, versus, new hospitalizations versus new deaths and haven't found one. The point it would make is how blitheringly obvious vaccines work in subduing SARS2 such that the virus will soon no longer be circulating at a rate exceeding 5% positivity among tested individuals.

Admittedly, collecting this kind of data and displaying it in the fashion I suggest has the potential to be misleading and subject to error. So, what's new. The CDC has been doing that anyway. Something like this would help change the narrative of predominantly negative messaging because ...... you can overlay in your mind's eye these two graphs and come to a similar conclusions as mine: The battle v. SARS2 is being wagged and won becasue of the miraculous success of vaccines. One noteworthy point from the graphs below: new cases took an uptick in mid-march and we started hearing dire consequences predictions of a 4th wave. It didn't happen. Vaccines? 

This should surprise no one. Recent history of disease caused by infection with viruses is replete with big wins for vaccines. What is a surprise is that PH officials haven't recognized that there appears to be a predictable endpoint because of the vaccines. At some point, not too far away, I would think, the likelihood of becoming infected from SARS2 and developing any symptoms let alone symptoms requiring hospitalization or worse causing death are remote. I could display a graph of weekly new hospitilizations and death but that would be even more startling.

If that is the case, why are PH officials so reluctant to tell vaccinated people they can resume pretty much normal activities by simply taking a few basic mitigation measures that the human race should have been taking all-along? It is that sort of guidance that I've been advocating for for months ..... tell us how to get safely back to normal recognizing that the risk of becoming infected with something is never going to be eliminated. At some point, that risk is acceptable and, IMO, we are very close to that.

I'm not an epidemiologist or virologist but modeling could reliably predict that date and we should be gradually moving toward it. Along with that should come concrete steps which entail the relaxation of most of the current level of mitigation measures being imposed by state and county governments.

7 DAY ROLLING AVERAGE WEEKELY VACCINATIONS

677803115_CaseNumbers.PNG.a9643365e35a8d5f261e952567f33165.PNG

SEVEN DAY AVERAGE WEEKELY NEW CASES

1423470340_CaseNumbers2.PNG.e395ef4492aa4d0d66693aed29729da0.PNG  

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I'm thinking that the all of Oasis and Quantum classes will definitely be sailing in reduced capacity by no later than 8/1 (could be sooner depending upon how well they roll out vaccines to crew members). I won't be surprised if most of the fleet isn't doing business by the end of August. But then again, I could be wrong about everything and am just throwing out Wild Azz Guesses (learned the WAG theory in MBA school while doing SWOT analysis on case projects 🙂 ) just to generate fun discussion. Happy Sailing (very soon) to All! 

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6 hours ago, JeffB said:

This is as good of a place to put this than any on this forum. I've searched the literature for a graph that compares number of vaccines administered versus new cases, versus, new hospitalizations versus new deaths and haven't found one. The point it would make is how blitheringly obvious vaccines work in subduing SARS2 such that the virus will soon no longer be circulating at a rate exceeding 5% positivity among tested individuals.

Admittedly, collecting this kind of data and displaying it in the fashion I suggest has the potential to be misleading and subject to error. So, what's new. The CDC has been doing that anyway. Something like this would help change the narrative of predominantly negative messaging because ...... you can overlay in your mind's eye these two graphs and come to a similar conclusions as mine: The battle v. SARS2 is being wagged and won becasue of the miraculous success of vaccines. One noteworthy point from the graphs below: new cases took an uptick in mid-march and we started hearing dire consequences predictions of a 4th wave. It didn't happen. Vaccines? 

This should surprise no one. Recent history of disease caused by infection with viruses is replete with big wins for vaccines. What is a surprise is that PH officials haven't recognized that there appears to be a predictable endpoint because of the vaccines. At some point, not too far away, I would think, the likelihood of becoming infected from SARS2 and developing any symptoms let alone symptoms requiring hospitalization or worse causing death are remote. I could display a graph of weekly new hospitilizations and death but that would be even more startling.

If that is the case, why are PH officials so reluctant to tell vaccinated people they can resume pretty much normal activities by simply taking a few basic mitigation measures that the human race should have been taking all-along? It is that sort of guidance that I've been advocating for for months ..... tell us how to get safely back to normal recognizing that the risk of becoming infected with something is never going to be eliminated. At some point, that risk is acceptable and, IMO, we are very close to that.

I'm not an epidemiologist or virologist but modeling could reliably predict that date and we should be gradually moving toward it. Along with that should come concrete steps which entail the relaxation of most of the current level of mitigation measures being imposed by state and county governments.

7 DAY ROLLING AVERAGE WEEKELY VACCINATIONS

677803115_CaseNumbers.PNG.a9643365e35a8d5f261e952567f33165.PNG

SEVEN DAY AVERAGE WEEKELY NEW CASES

1423470340_CaseNumbers2.PNG.e395ef4492aa4d0d66693aed29729da0.PNG  

We are seeing big drops in cases here in NY.   My county's positivity rate is 1.17 percent!  It was over 4 percent not long ago!  I don't think it will go away completely until more people get vaccinated.  I was reading early this week that there was an outbreak in Oregon in a rural area where very few people were vaccinated.

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10 minutes ago, mjb1127 said:

I was reading early this week that there was an outbreak in Oregon in a rural area where very few people were vaccinated.

Right. If it were not for the fact that influenza has essentially disappeared, not for the fact that the world experienced COVID, we'd be reporting on minor outbreaks of influenza in Oregon ..... that is an important distinction re SARS2. REGIONAL OUTBREAKS. Look at reports by state. Plenty are reporting no new cases or only limited numbers and within states the new cases are by counties. IOW .... REGIONAL. In FL, its the tri-county S. FL region with the most cases and even then, Broward, home of PEV and Miami, home of POM, the 7w rolling average decline in new cases, hospitalizations and deaths, even with vaccine rates dropping, is obvious.

Let's get back to work, socializing and cruising.

The MSM has got to stop reporting national stats

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15 hours ago, mjb1127 said:

We are seeing big drops in cases here in NY.   My county's positivity rate is 1.17 percent!  It was over 4 percent not long ago!  I don't think it will go away completely until more people get vaccinated.  I was reading early this week that there was an outbreak in Oregon in a rural area where very few people were vaccinated.

Our case counts and positivity rates have been consistently declining throughout Shelby County, TN since vaccine distribution began. The biggest challenge right now is getting more folks willing to be vaccinated at this point. We have TONS of vaccines available now with the remaining non-vaxxed folks being slow to act. Businesses are beginning to really open back up and you can just sense an enormous sigh of relief by everyone that better days are to come. 🙂

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28 minutes ago, UNCFanatik said:

Better question. When will Royal make a decision about July cruises? We are now in May with July Cruises in limbo and vacation dollars being held up. 
 

when do you think they will announce decision on July cruises? 

 

Once the CDC clarifies questions and concerns Royal can begin to look at each ship and determine a possible plan to restart.  When?  Don't know yet.  

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