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US cruises could restart soon with 'passenger voyages by mid-July,' CDC says


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9 minutes ago, LizzyBee23 said:

I listened to the entire VRBPAC meeting for the Pfizer EUA... I'm a huge nerd, had some free time back then, and was part of the Pfizer trial so had a vested interest in what they were discussing re: unblinding. There were pediatricians on the panel who voted against approval because of the language including 16 year olds, citing their belief that there is no pediatric emergency which could justify authorizing a vaccine under EUA for children.

And they may have a point.  According to The Economist a 15 year old male who tests positive for COVID-19 has under a .01% chance of death and a .6% chance of hospitalization.  

See how age and illnesses change the risk of dying from covid-19 | The Economist

 

But I don't want to drag this into covid politics, so I won't comment further.

 

 

 

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90 or so responses and I can't remember ever seeing as much negativity as I just have? We got what we want! Now there is an avalanche of overthought, baseless, "what ifs" and could be's and.... Were s

The CDC staff making up these requirements while they sat maskless in a bar must have been laughing their asses off.

Everyone is out of sorts with a year plus of no cruising.  Like kids who need a nap, we all just need a cruise before we will be back to ourselves.

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13 minutes ago, wordell1 said:

Even if approved, that leaves a lot of unvaccinated children that are probably already booked on Summer cruises.  

Well, that would be one way to cull the number of passengers to meet the other CDC requirements... 🙂

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7 minutes ago, karl_nj said:

And they may have a point.  According to The Economist a 15 year old male who tests positive for COVID-19 has under a .01% chance of death and a .6% chance of hospitalization.  

See how age and illnesses change the risk of dying from covid-19 | The Economist

 

But I don't want to drag this into covid politics, so I won't comment further.

 

 

 

I agree completely, and do think they have a point. The analysis that I think is relevant here wrt to kids cruising again is that you have two very risk-averse organizations coming to a head over this issue: FDA doesn't want to approve a vaccine for kids under EUA, and CDC is pushing for population vaccination levels that aren't achievable (especially without pediatric vaccines) to mitigate risk to their satisfaction (I think we can all agree that's an order of magnitude lower than what we find acceptable - signed someone who thinks it's criminal to cook a steak above med-rare).

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https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2021/04/29/royal-caribbean-talks-about-cdc-letter-and-what-it-means-kids

 

Both he and Mr. Fain cautioned the letter is new, and there are follow up questions to determine, but Bayley felt kids are not out of the question, "We really do have to sit, study and and discuss with the CDC and understand all of these these different nuances."

Mr. Bayley believes the age restriction for kids, which now stands at 16, will be lowered shortly, "We've been told that in the coming weeks and months that that age limit will likely drop to 12. And and we're encouraged by that."

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So what about kids below 11?

Mr. Bayley said that age range is not enormous, "obviously we carry a lot of kids 11 and under, but relatively speaking, as a percentage of our total guest counts, it's quite a small number. So we're not overly concerned with that."

 

What does that mean? Not concerned with the numbers of under 11 affecting the 95% threshold? Or not concerned if they have to ban those kids?

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10 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

So what about kids below 11?

Mr. Bayley said that age range is not enormous, "obviously we carry a lot of kids 11 and under, but relatively speaking, as a percentage of our total guest counts, it's quite a small number. So we're not overly concerned with that."

 

What does that mean? Not concerned with the numbers of under 11 affecting the 95% threshold? Or not concerned if they have to ban those kids?

I read it as they won't push it over the threshold, which seems true. I imagine the guidelines will be something like require everyone who can be to be vaccinated, otherwise they must show up with a doctor's note saying that they 1.) can't be vaccinated and 2.) are fit to sail. I can tell you that the number of doctors willing to write such a note will be infinitesimally small. That would reserve the remaining 5% for those that legitimately need an exception but are otherwise healthy and kids under 12. I don't share Mr. Bayley's or Mr. Fain's optimism that a vaccine will be approved for children under 16 in time for the summer, though.

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26 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

So what about kids below 11?

Mr. Bayley said that age range is not enormous, "obviously we carry a lot of kids 11 and under, but relatively speaking, as a percentage of our total guest counts, it's quite a small number. So we're not overly concerned with that."

 

What does that mean? Not concerned with the numbers of under 11 affecting the 95% threshold? Or not concerned if they have to ban those kids?

From an investor's perspective (since this was an investor call) it should have negligible impact on company financials.  

There will be some that take the comments out of context but it's important to remember the question and answers were with large investment firms seeking to understand how to advise investors about the potential of the company's financial performance.  

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9 hours ago, twangster said:

 

If they cancel a Florida cruise because not enough guests were vaccinated does that put them at odds with the Florida Governor DeSantis EO that says they can't require guests to be vaccinated?  Are they violating the Governor's EO simply by asking if a guest is vaccinated?

So many questions.

I live in Florida and I support Gov. DeSantis, but with him putting out that EO of businesses in Florida cant require guests, customers to show proof of vaccinations drives me crazy. With one breath he wants cruising to start, but with the other he is putting a road block in the way. 

I personally feel that cruise lines should not fall under that mandate and the Governor needs to make a clarification in that EO. 

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Cruise ship operators will also be allowed to enter into agreements with multiple ports instead of just one single port, as long as all local health authorities and all ports sign off.

 

I think this is a good idea and that it would actually speed up the process of getting sailing again. One agreement, multiple ports. 

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One possible outcome is to follow the NCL model.  100% vaccines, no kids if not vaccinated by then, through the extent of the CSO, currently until Nov. 1.

The CDC gives them a place to point the finger when guests object.  

I do believe more kids will become eligible for a vaccine at some point.  Until then, the CDC made us do it.  

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Comments on the CDC's "letter to the cruise lines."

Up thread a poster commented on the huge legal and liability issues attendant to this so called "letter."  I get the need for and the apparent occurrence of this "twice weekly" dialogue between the CDC and the cruise lines that produced a letter and a news report of it.

Having said that, cruise lines are going to want something in writing from the Feds. I don't know about you, but having the CDC put anything in writing is a pretty scary undertaking. Have you looked at their web-page that contains supposed COVID Public Health guidance? It is simply not possible to understand it with any clarity and it's been like that since February of 2020.

The news (and this "letter") is obviously good news. I still hold that the impending hearing of FL's law suit on May 12th is a factor, among several others, in the CDC's apparent relaxing portions of the CSO or redefining what has to happen before cruises can restart.

Still, I'm baffled by the CDC's apparent need to keep tight control of a restart in the current circumstance. It is blindingly obvious that vaccines are safe and effective in reducing the disease burden of COVID and preventing transmission of it.

The CDC could make things really simple by recommending that cruise lines vaccinate crew members and passengers to the levels they've now established before restarting cruise operations from US ports - a one liner eliminates all of the confusion that the CDC has created with the garbage that is the CSO and, now, their obvious wish to retain tight control over a business operation of which, lawfully, they should have no control.

I'm still holding out for the Judge hearing FL's law suit on May 12th to stick it to the CDC and impose an injunction that prevents enforcement of the CDC's CSO ..... that's the simplest way to make things simple. Applying the law to a given circumstance is usually like that.

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8 minutes ago, JeffB said:

I'm still holding out for the Judge hearing FL's law suit on May 12th to stick it to the CDC and impose an injunction that prevents enforcement of the CDC's CSO ..... that's the simplest way to make things simple. 

That's likely a worse case scenario for the cruise lines.

It puts them in a position of operating with no vaccine requirement which will lead to a case of COVID-19 at some point, or the illusion of a case and the media goes hysteric.  Even thought that alleged case will likely be mild and most likely not involve death, that doesn't matter.  The fact that the case can't actually be traced to the cruise won't matter.

The CDC imposed vaccination requirement gives them a cleaner and safer (from media hysterics) path forward.

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11 hours ago, CGTLH said:

 

  • CDC will update its testing and quarantine requirements for passengers and crew on sailings with paying passengers to align with the CDC's guidance for fully vaccinated people. So, for example, instead of taking a PCR lab test ahead of boarding vaccinated passengers can take a rapid antigen test upon embarkation.

I understand that the testing and quarantine requirements will better align with CDC's guidance for fully vaccinated people, but I am interested to see the mask mandates onboard. This week the CDC announced that fully vaccinated people do not have to wear a mask outdoors, unless in a large crowd. For instance, will the cruise lines allow people to sit by the pool without a mask on? Definitely a lot of things to figure out.

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7 minutes ago, twangster said:

That's likely a worse case scenario for the cruise lines.

It puts them in a position of operating with no vaccine requirement which will lead to a case of COVID-19 at some point, or the illusion of a case and the media goes hysteric.  Even thought that alleged case will likely be mild and most likely not involve death, that doesn't matter.  The fact that the case can't actually be traced to the cruise won't matter.

The CDC imposed vaccination requirement gives them a cleaner and safer (from media hysterics) path forward.

We need to stop making room for the media to do this... There should be no expectation that cruising is any safer than any other vacation. The truth is there will be COVID cases on cruise ships, vaccine requirement or not. 

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2 hours ago, twangster said:

From an investor's perspective (since this was an investor call) it should have negligible impact on company financials.  

There will be some that take the comments out of context but it's important to remember the question and answers were with large investment firms seeking to understand how to advise investors about the potential of the company's financial performance.  

From a big picture, business stand point....I completely understand and agree with them. 

From a personal, parent of a 9 and 5 year old stand point.....Im not sailing without my kids. I sure hope they make considerations for parents with smaller and smaller windows of opportunity to use our FCC. 

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7 minutes ago, SteveinSC said:

From a big picture, business stand point....I completely understand and agree with them. 

From a personal, parent of a 9 and 5 year old stand point.....Im not sailing without my kids. I sure hope they make considerations for parents with smaller and smaller windows of opportunity to use our FCC. 

I completely appreciate your perspective and understand your choice. If my kids were still kids I would be right there with you.

Cruise lines are dealing with the cards that are being dealt to them.  They want a royal flush but the best hand they have to play is a pair of deuces.  Staring at that pair of twos and wishing they were other cards isn't going to change the cards in their hand.

So they are going back to the dealer, in this case the CDC, and making sure they understand all the rules in the game to see if there is anyway to make it work.  

The outcome is not inevitable.  We need to wait until the CDC clarifies the rules of the game.

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14 minutes ago, 12thman said:

If any cruise line said passengers would need proof of vaccination that really doesn't mean anything, there are fake vaccine cards one can get. How would cruise lines enforce such a requirement?

They couldn't.

But I really don't think you'll see it (fake vaccine cards) too much on cruises.

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8 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

They couldn't.

But I really don't think you'll see it (fake vaccine cards) too much on cruises.

It only takes one person to have covid-19 and the cruise comes to an end in Singapore right now. Wouldn't be happy if paying thousands of dollars for my cruise and someone uses a fake vaccine card to get on then comes down with covid. You know the CDC will be all over that and shut down cruises as the media will be all over it. 

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