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LizzyBee23

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Everything posted by LizzyBee23

  1. I don't think that's paranoid... COVID isn't going to be eradicated, and thus if it follows typical cold/flu patterns we'll see higher case counts in the fall/winter. It shouldn't matter to us independently of hospitalizations and deaths, but the goalposts have been shifting tremendously and it could very well be what the CDC uses to justify another round of public health measures right before the holidays.
  2. I'm just happy to see the Navier-Stokes equation on a cruise forum. Edit: and used appropriately, since as far as I know, there's still a millennium prize out there for anyone who can solve it (meaning as far as we know, it's unsolvable).
  3. I, for the most part, agree with tiered distribution strategies orchestrated by the government... However, it should be rigorously . measured by the ability of the system to deliver on one metric and one metric alone: the number of shots delivered to a state successfully going into arms. Perhaps you make a small allowance for the fact that it is in some ways harder to reach the elderly and at risk people sitting in their homes who may struggle with making online appointments, but not much of one. If a state doesn't get 75 or 80% of the doses delivered to them in an arm within 7 days of deliver
  4. "Pfizer and BioNTech are planning to submit a Biologics License Application (BLA) during the first half of 2021 to secure full regulatory approval for BNT162b2," reads a statement emailed to Fox News. "Once filed, we expect the FDA to make a final decision in the second half of 2021."
  5. https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN28K2Z5
  6. I bet the full gamut of them initially... Interested to see how they (and we) respond to the inevitability of cases in board. Hopefully without hysteria.
  7. Ha! Same... The nurse laughed when I tried to hand it to her. I'll never forget that.
  8. Maybe Royal can start selling at-home beverage packages to help me subsidize the cost a bit!
  9. I'm going to buy a case of champagne and pop one every time a round of cancellations gets announced to try to trick my brain into thinking it's good news, at least temporarily.
  10. I think we agree, but Singapore has single digit cases of detected community transmission right now (maybe double digit, but you get my drift). It would be disingenuous to say "we have zero cases in Singapore because of these protocol" when it likely isn't causative. And like you said, we don't need it to be! I think the cruise lines obviously get this, but as members of the thinking public I think it's kind of our duty to pre-empt the idea that we're willing to wait for zero cases to claim victory... I see the notion that a single case (or even dozens of cases) will derail the return of cruis
  11. Sure, but we can't write the same criteria Singapore can today and expect to succeed, nor should we. Zero covid is not possible on land, why should it be required on the sea? I think a reasonable criteria would be just to make sure the ships aren't "accelerators". If they're not, and medical facilities on land and at sea can provide for the background level of disease, then get those "boats" *cringe* sailing.
  12. I'm not proving you wrong to be snarky, just to correct the misconception: https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idINKBN28K2Z5 It's easy to get confused about this... The efficacy trials have what you could call "no later than" dates associated with them to determine efficacy (which would only come into play if there were very few cases and the effect was hard to determine, ie the vaccine wasn't effective), and generally speaking companies will continue to collect safety data and anything else deemed relevant during that time even though it isn't necessary to gr
  13. An interesting question, but probably moot as the two vaccines being used in the US will probably have all of the data they need to file for full approval by April and May.
  14. It's also that Singapore has aggressively contained the virus and has a fraction of the incidence rate we do.
  15. My comment isn't about cruising in general so much as what states are doing in response to the CDC refusing to budge on guidelines. It is a quagmire for private businesses right now, even though there haven't been any big lawsuits yet.
  16. You're probably right, I think both of the outcomes are within the realm of reason. I think our perpetual election cycle also helps here... No one is going to want to run on ruining two Christmases in a row in 2022, and red states are starting to up the political pressure, having apparently been vindicated by falling case numbers (not commenting on whether that's right or wrong, just a note). Florida is also racing to pass an immunity bill through its legislature that would essentially render the CDC guidelines legally toothless within the state. If they continue to be so out of touch, it
  17. I don't know, I think we're a week or so removed from the the technical guidance being released, and I truly expect it to be underwhelming relative to what RC's healthy sail panel is already recommending. The fact that the CDC asked for details about RC's tracelet reads to me like they're copying their homework so to speak. I think things will move relatively quickly from that point. Also, the CSO expires at the end of October... There will be mounting political pressure for things to go back to normal before the holidays, no matter what the experts are calling for (not saying that to di
  18. Oh, I know. All you would need is a piece of white cardstock and a duplex printer. Our state has an easily accessible (by patients) registry, and there is a reporting requirement to the fed, though I don't know how much specific information they get versus just general demographic info.
  19. To add an anecdote @JeffB, conversations I've had with friends in my age group (mid 30's) who are close to the end of the line for vaccines have started to trend toward this doom and gloom version of the future and are approaching a nihilism that I don't share but do understand... Namely if it is really as bad as Fauci et. al. say with regard to variants, then why bother continuing with caution until their group comes up for vaccination. One friend of mine is particularly hung up on something Fauci said which boils down to "once we've got 80% of the population vaccinated we can talk start goin
  20. I believe yes, but I also think I'm pessimistic about a COVID free future, meaning in my view the virus is here to stay. The best vaccines (mRNA for now, though Sputnik and Novavax are close and may be just as good) seem to knock down OG COVID and the B117 variant by about 90% across the board (researchers have even started postulating this is the case for asymptomatic spread). Buuuuut, there is almost no feasible solution that gets the mRNA vaccines into every arm, and even so we know there are some variants they aren't as effective against. We also know the threshold for herd immunity i
  21. With the kicker being (as I understand it) "that the cruise lines can access" it.
  22. Those were symptomatic cases, so while amazing news it doesn't answer the question of to what degree asymptomatic spread is deterred. I think the only vaccine we have good info for is AZ, which IIRC showed no change in the rate of asymptomatic infection even while showing good reduction of symptomatic infection. Given most of the world is going to have to rely on that vaccine at least partially, I don't think we can be confident the vaccine (whoops, "virus") won't continue to spread. Just going to drop one more time that this is all still great news. Another exposure to a coronavirus does
  23. Mine was a one week course back in 2013, but that may have changed. I'm also not sure how it would work with a break in employment (meaning one of the workers let go from this facility is laid off, but willing to come back 6 months later). Would they have to re-up the background check or could the whole process be skipped? Either way, it's more involved than hiring someone to work at an ordinary warehouse for sure.
  24. Good catch... And I don't think it's something an ordinary supplier could step in and do, either. If they were the ones bringing supplies onboard or even just to port, I'm sure they had to have TWIC cards and all of the anti-terrorism training that comes with it. Won't be an easy resource to just turn back on if that's the case.
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