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Crew reconstitution? Will there be a change in strategy in how you bring them back?


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How will crews be reconstituted for the various classes of ships in these restart days?  With RCG committing to vaccinated crews, you to select from countries that have easier access to vaccinate, or does the line re-assemble crews with experience on their "home" ships and take on the task of contracting with one of the pharma companies?  We know RCL will have 2 Q class sailing and a Vision class.  Others to be announced we hope. 

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My understanding of the vaccines that they won't be available for private purchase, as there are so many countries needing to purchase, a backlog on production... and all the co-vax countries.  Everyone needs global vaccination as we're so interconnected. It was certainly frowned on by uk authorities when it came out that some wealthy individuals were paying huge sums to travel to the UAE to get vaccinated early.  Not sure how vaccines are going to be sourced by private corporates.

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1 hour ago, cruisellama said:

How will crews be reconstituted for the various classes of ships in these restart days?  With RCG committing to vaccinated crews, you to select from countries that have easier access to vaccinate, or does the line re-assemble crews with experience on their "home" ships and take on the task of contracting with one of the pharma companies?  We know RCL will have 2 Q class sailing and a Vision class.  Others to be announced we hope. 

Guess the only people who can answer this is the cruiselines themselves everything else is just guess work and outwith any of our control 

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1 hour ago, em.down.the.rabbit.hole said:

My understanding of the vaccines that they won't be available for private purchase, as there are so many countries needing to purchase, a backlog on production... and all the co-vax countries.  Everyone needs global vaccination as we're so interconnected. It was certainly frowned on by uk authorities when it came out that some wealthy individuals were paying huge sums to travel to the UAE to get vaccinated early.  Not sure how vaccines are going to be sourced by private corporates.

Hi we would like to offer you and your management team a free vacation ... we are going to need you to bring a couple hundred thousand of your vaccine doses with you though ...

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2 hours ago, em.down.the.rabbit.hole said:

My understanding of the vaccines that they won't be available for private purchase, as there are so many countries needing to purchase, a backlog on production... and all the co-vax countries.  Everyone needs global vaccination as we're so interconnected. It was certainly frowned on by uk authorities when it came out that some wealthy individuals were paying huge sums to travel to the UAE to get vaccinated early.  Not sure how vaccines are going to be sourced by private corporates.

Russia has stated the SputnikV is for sale on the open market to anyone with the funds to purchase. 

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33 minutes ago, twangster said:

The notion that money can't buy the vaccine before the masses around the world get the shot is noble but not realistic.  Rant all you want but rest assured private companies around the world are getting their hands on the vaccine.  

No doubt. Especially when that company can justify it by saying "we're helping out our employees whose countries are struggling to get the vaccine"

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Indonesia has already given the green light for private companies to purchase vaccine and distribute it to employees ( saves the government money) however even with permission getting their hands on it could be an issue.

Philippines has started its own roll out of the vaccine ! Hospital staff and government officials first

Guess its up to each individual country to set their own guidlines.

 

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If we really wanted the vaccine to be distributed with greater efficiency we would outsource it to private companies.  In some areas we kind of have by letting retailers do it.  

Who is to say our governments are getting it right?  Everyone in Congress was vaccinated very quickly "so they can demonstrate how safe it is".  So much for need based distribution or the most benefit to society.  Hogwash.    

I say we should do vaccination cruises in place of test cruises.  Want to go on a cruise?  No problem, but you need to be willing to get a shot in the arm during the cruise.  Then the cruise line can observe you for a few days before returning thousands to land vaccinated and ready for society to reopen.  Don't want it?  Then you are not eligible for a vaccination cruise.  Wait for general cruising to restart.

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If we really wanted the vaccine to be distributed with greater efficiency we would outsource it to private companies. 

This.

The joke on one of the forums I post at regularly suggested Amazon and that was mostly a serious "joke."

FL started out with a hospital system choice  for initial roll-out - that would be healthcare workers and first responders. That went pretty smoothly as the 5 large hospital systems in S. FL rolled out employee rosters and started scheduling shots internally based on supply. Pretty simple. Soon after as that group got their shots, they went for LTC residents and staff and enlisted CVS to administer doses on site. That worked pretty good. Within a month 95% of both of those groups among those that didn't refuse it (only about 20% and much lower than first thought) had gotten inoculated.

Then all hell broke lose. A mixture of hospital systems, retail pharmacies and public health agencies set up phone and web sites to sign up. If you were over 65, you get the shots. Phone lines and web sites crashed from demand. It was a mess for most of the month of February, especially the last week of January and the first two weeks of February. As supply increased, most of it went to the county public health departments, then retail pharmacies. Shifting to a state wide system to schedule shots helped to clean up the mess of diverse organizations scheduling and  giving shots. By the end of February, the PH system was working best to get you a shot. Well published and circulated numbers for your county health department were answered by a bot that took you though a simple questionnaire to determine eligibility. If you answered all the questions to the bots satisfaction, the bot came on and said, we will call you.

Calls by a human to offer a slot and sign up for it came in 3d to a week, no more. PH agencies were planning at most 72 hours in advance based on what they actually received at their front door. Retail pharmacies were hit and miss - you could sign-up on line or some times call and speak to a human. Most people I talk with have varied experiences signing up with a retail pharmacy even though hundreds of them are doing it- it's either surprisingly easy or I can't get through.

Right now there are probably 200 retail pharmacies in the state getting supplies - Publix, CVS, Kroger, Walmart and Target. Some retailers aren't using the supply they had planned for a day. When that happens, if you're lucky, you'll get called at 8pm or so and asked, "how quickly can you get here." Shots for over 50 with an MD note certifying that the patient getting the shot has a qualifying co-morbid condition started on 3/9 - Gov. Desantis says the Dr. decides what that is; if you have a shot appointment and a letter you get the shot no questions asked. All teachers and school employees over 50 are also eligible. Seems to be working with minor whines about whatever.

In 2w, anyone over 50 will be eligible. By mid April everyone over 16 should be eligible with all of those who don't refuse to be vaccinated with at least one shot before May first. That is nothing short of amazing.

BTW, as of 3/14, FL leads the nation at 30/100 getting shots. Illinois is a close second. If you assume 30% of a given population has already had COVID and has some level of immunity to it, that's 60% with immunity ..... or herd immunity in FL according to some experts. All you need to do is look at plunging death rates and hospitalizations to know vaccinations are working and working way better than expected to end the pandemic. State wide positivity rates are right around 5% (Broward Co., home of port Everglades has a positivity rate just over 4%. 7d average is a little over 5%. This means the virus isn't circulating by most accounts unless goal posts change and the CDC does that. 

Open FL cruise ports!!!! I can see with my own eyes what's going on in my state yet we hear our federal public health experts and our President preaching caution and having pessimistic outlooks going forward. I get it but the reality is that people who are vaccinated can pretty much do as they please with appropriate precautions in indoor congregate settings involving vaccinated and unvaccinated people.  Frustrating we are still waiting on  the CDC to see this. We should be getting back on cruise ships ASAP.  

   

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13 hours ago, JeffB said:

Shots for over 50 with an MD note certifying that the patient getting the shot has a qualifying co-morbid condition started on 3/9 - Gov. Desantis says the Dr. decides what that is; if you have a shot appointment and a letter you get the shot no questions asked. All teachers and school employees over 50 are also eligible. Seems to be working with minor whines about whatever.

That's great unless you don't have a history with a FL doctor.  If you move to FL it takes 6 months to get in to see a doctor for a new patient consult.  During the initial visit they won't do any business of a doctor,  anything else requires a new appointment.  To get the form filled out requires waiting an additional 3 to 6 months for another appointment, so 9 months after arriving. 

Florida may be open in general, except for it's doctors, which are decidedly not open for business as usual.  is It all reminds me of a scene in the movie "The Terminal".

do-you-have-an-appointment.thumb.jpg.90ccc190b535301cdc1bd617218d5d75.jpg

No appointment?  Come back in six months to make an appointment. 

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On 3/14/2021 at 8:26 PM, JeffB said:

BTW, as of 3/14, FL leads the nation at 30/100 getting shots. Illinois is a close second. If you assume 30% of a given population has already had COVID and has some level of immunity to it, that's 60% with immunity ..... or herd immunity in FL according to some experts.

The math doesn't quite work out... You are assuming that all the people who have already had covid (including those that have no idea that they did) are not getting the vaccine now.

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On 3/15/2021 at 11:04 PM, roundabout said:

The math doesn't quite work out... You are assuming that all the people who have already had covid (including those that have no idea that they did) are not getting the vaccine now.

Off-set by the assumed 25% that are anti-vaxers. It's a zero-sum game. In the end with 30% vaccinated and 30% immune by virtue of having had COVIDminus 25% of the FL's population who won't get the vaccine, you'll have 60% of that population immune ...... still herd immunity for that cohort.

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There's also a still undetermined portion of the population that has a pre-existing cross immunity to covid. Studies have suggested it being anywhere from 20-50%

Also though there's mixing between those vaccinated and those who had covid. And the same for those with a cross immunity, too.

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On 3/14/2021 at 3:29 PM, twangster said:

Who is to say our governments are getting it right?  Everyone in Congress was vaccinated very quickly "so they can demonstrate how safe it is".  So much for need based distribution or the most benefit to society.  Hogwash.    

Well Done Clapping GIF by MOODMAN - Find & Share on GIPHY

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I, for the most part, agree with tiered distribution strategies orchestrated by the government... However, it should be rigorously . measured by the ability of the system to deliver on one metric and one metric alone: the number of shots delivered to a state successfully going into arms. Perhaps you make a small allowance for the fact that it is in some ways harder to reach the elderly and at risk people sitting in their homes who may struggle with making online appointments, but not much of one. If a state doesn't get 75 or 80% of the doses delivered to them in an arm within 7 days of delivery, well, they've failed and should be required to open up vaccinations to more people until they can get things moving properly or let someone else take it over. I have faith in the government's ability to execute a plan if they can demonstrate that if is efficient... Otherwise, get out of the way.

The stories about arduous hurdles being put in place in some states when there are leftover doses in bottles makes my blood boil. You can intuit why those rules are in place: some state public health officials felt any system which carved out exceptions would be abused. And you know what? They're probably right to some degree, but at the end of the day that just doesn't matter. If one or two pharmacists out of ten open an extra vial of vaccine at the end of the day to get their friends and neighbors vaccinated, well, so what... 10 people who needed to be vaccinated got vaccinated, if a little out of order. If even half of the other doses that would have been disposed get used up it's worth it in my book... 4-5 more people vaccinated and a bit of gravy on top.

Corruption is bad, don't get me wrong, but most people will do the right thing and we can sort out the rest later.

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5 hours ago, LizzyBee23 said:

I, for the most part, agree with tiered distribution strategies orchestrated by the government... However, it should be rigorously . measured by the ability of the system to deliver on one metric and one metric alone: the number of shots delivered to a state successfully going into arms. Perhaps you make a small allowance for the fact that it is in some ways harder to reach the elderly and at risk people sitting in their homes who may struggle with making online appointments, but not much of one. If a state doesn't get 75 or 80% of the doses delivered to them in an arm within 7 days of delivery, well, they've failed and should be required to open up vaccinations to more people until they can get things moving properly or let someone else take it over. I have faith in the government's ability to execute a plan if they can demonstrate that if is efficient... Otherwise, get out of the way.

The stories about arduous hurdles being put in place in some states when there are leftover doses in bottles makes my blood boil. You can intuit why those rules are in place: some state public health officials felt any system which carved out exceptions would be abused. And you know what? They're probably right to some degree, but at the end of the day that just doesn't matter. If one or two pharmacists out of ten open an extra vial of vaccine at the end of the day to get their friends and neighbors vaccinated, well, so what... 10 people who needed to be vaccinated got vaccinated, if a little out of order. If even half of the other doses that would have been disposed get used up it's worth it in my book... 4-5 more people vaccinated and a bit of gravy on top.

Corruption is bad, don't get me wrong, but most people will do the right thing and we can sort out the rest later.

But do you think there Will be a change in strategy in how you bring them back? As per topic of post? 

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8 hours ago, LizzyBee23 said:

The stories about arduous hurdles being put in place in some states when there are leftover doses in bottles makes my blood boil.

Here in Eastern North Carolina the "hurdle" was this:

  • Thursday - a friend whose neighbor is involved with the mass vaccinations locally asked if we wanted to be put on a list to be called for leftover vaccine at the end of the day. We said yes.
  • Friday 4:39 p.m. - "Hi. If you can make it to the Convention Center by 5:00, you can get the J&J vaccine today."
  • Friday 4:57 p.m. - in the building.
  • Friday 5:03 p.m. - all paperwork done and shots in our arms.

 

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What I imagine will occur for re-crewing ships will be a matter of an HR exercise to match eligible crew with ship board positions for the next ship they want to sail.

There's lots of talk of "Royal should sail here next"  or "Royal should sail there next".  That's all well and good but Royal can only crew a ship as crew are able to reach the ship and crew can be or are vaccinated.  They can't fill every ship and every position overnight.

This problem of crewing the next ship or trying to plan which ship should be next and where is complicated by public health agencies that refuse to work with the industry. 

That's kind of like trying to buy a house when no mortgage lender will allow you to apply for a mortgage even though you are guaranteed to qualify.  You know your financial situation.  You believe you qualify.  You have a sizeable down payment.  You have a high paying stable job.  Your problem isn't the ability to qualify for a mortgage, your problem is the lenders aren't answering the phone, responding to emails and their websites are blank or unchanged.   You know the home you want to buy, you know when you need to move, but you are stuck in limbo waiting for a lender to take your phone call.  The lights are on but nobody's home.

That makes it very challenging to commit to the next ship and port where you are going to send resources.

Singapore and Israel are example of what occurs when governments work with industry.   Cruise lines can play the game when they know what sport they are playing and where the goal posts are. 

It's really hard to build a team when you don't know what sport is going to be allowed to be played on the field.  

In an ideal world cruise lines would have a clear path to restarting.  That doesn't exist today so it makes the job of bringing crew back incredibly difficult.

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9 hours ago, twangster said:

This problem of crewing the next ship or trying to plan which ship should be next and where is complicated by public health agencies that refuse to work with the industry. 

That's kind of like trying to buy a house when no mortgage lender will allow you to apply for a mortgage even though you are guaranteed to qualify.  You know your financial situation.  You believe you qualify.  You have a sizeable down payment.  You have a high paying stable job.  Your problem isn't the ability to qualify for a mortgage, your problem is the lenders aren't answering the phone, responding to emails and their websites are blank or unchanged.   You know the home you want to buy, you know when you need to move, but you are stuck in limbo waiting for a lender to take your phone call.  The lights are on but nobody's home.

That makes it very challenging to commit to the next ship and port where you are going to send resources.

Singapore and Israel are example of what occurs when governments work with industry.   Cruise lines can play the game when they know what sport they are playing and where the goal posts are. 

It's really hard to build a team when you don't know what sport is going to be allowed to be played on the field.  

In an ideal world cruise lines would have a clear path to restarting.  That doesn't exist today so it makes the job of bringing crew back incredibly difficult.

@twangster As usual, you hit the nail on the head with this analogy.

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11 hours ago, twangster said:

What I imagine will occur for re-crewing ships will be a matter of an HR exercise to match eligible crew with ship board positions for the next ship they want to sail.

There's lots of talk of "Royal should sail here next"  or "Royal should sail there next".  That's all well and good but Royal can only crew a ship as crew are able to reach the ship and crew can be or are vaccinated.  They can't fill every ship and every position overnight.

This problem of crewing the next ship or trying to plan which ship should be next and where is complicated by public health agencies that refuse to work with the industry. 

That's kind of like trying to buy a house when no mortgage lender will allow you to apply for a mortgage even though you are guaranteed to qualify.  You know your financial situation.  You believe you qualify.  You have a sizeable down payment.  You have a high paying stable job.  Your problem isn't the ability to qualify for a mortgage, your problem is the lenders aren't answering the phone, responding to emails and their websites are blank or unchanged.   You know the home you want to buy, you know when you need to move, but you are stuck in limbo waiting for a lender to take your phone call.  The lights are on but nobody's home.

That makes it very challenging to commit to the next ship and port where you are going to send resources.

Singapore and Israel are example of what occurs when governments work with industry.   Cruise lines can play the game when they know what sport they are playing and where the goal posts are. 

It's really hard to build a team when you don't know what sport is going to be allowed to be played on the field.  

In an ideal world cruise lines would have a clear path to restarting.  That doesn't exist today so it makes the job of bringing crew back incredibly difficult.

Excellent points. I wonder if efforts are already underway to staff a second ship homeporting in Nassau....

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