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With the new Vaccine information when it will be possible to cruise normally


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I am missing cruising , so I decided to try and check the numbers with the new vaccine news.

Few things we already now : 

1. Pfizer can produce up to 100 Million vaccine until the end of the year and around 1.2 B during 2021.
2. Each one require to get two portions of the vaccine in 28 days.
3. The Pfizer vaccine require to be kept in -94 f 
4. Moderna  vaccine is similar to the Pfizer one , both are based on RNA.

Assumptions : 

1. Moderna will announce soon on the test results its expected to be more and less like Pfizer.
2. Moderna will be able to produce more and less the same numbers of vaccine portions but their issue will be with shipments (Pfizer invested in special freezing systems)
3. Not all the vaccine portion will go to the US , I estimate 50% of it will go to other countries per agreements unless the US government will force them to first distribute it only in the US.
4. First only the first responders and medical workers will  get the vaccine , later teachers , people with health risk and then the public population.
5. Some expert say you need to have 60% of the people vaccine to get the herd effect some says 90%

I have created this graph which shows the ability to give vaccine to the US population with the assumption of 10% better production of the vaccine every month and 5% better ability to distribute it .

On the graph you can see : 

1. Pfizer only (50% to the US).

2. Pfizer and Moderna.

3. Pfizer Moderna and a non freeze vaccine (based on regular vaccine system).

4. All the 3 if the US decide to keep all vaccine portion in the US for the first year.
I did not took the 90% success factor in but you can estimate it will have a one month effect 

I also added the 60 and 90 % of the US population so you can see when in theory the herd effect happens  , when the horizontal lines cross with the other lines its the month we should have the herd effect.

As you can see best case scenario is April 2021 (all three vaccine are available and kept in the US) worse case scenario Jan 2022   (Only Pfizer is available and only half is kept in the US)

Sorry for the small graph , I failed to add the bigger picture for some reason by I had a BMP file with the same.

2139356274_Vaccinepredications55.thumb.jpg.2c1d6b95d8ca0051161cc3186e62e20d.jpg

 

 
 
                                               
                                                 
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This is how the CDC cruise ship task force interprets that graph...  

Vaccine news (spoiler they are working 🙂 ) Another research was published iin Israel , this time with population of  1.2 Million  , 600 K of people that got the second shot already and 600 withou

Key thing I've come to learn and understand about the J&J vaccine over the weekend is that, while it's only 49%-72% effective (depending on the region you're looking at and how widespread variants

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i am hoping sooner than later.  But, I am not going to hold my breath.  With all the negative coverage cruise ships get, which is BS IMO, they will have to have to keep tighter rules longer.  I hope I am wrong, but the cruise lines need to show they are taking it even more serious than other parts of the travel industry. All because of the "petri dish" comparison that is used.

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Probably late summer or fall of 2021. I work in the healthcare industry and we anticipate getting vaccine before the end of the year but the first doses will be earmarked for healthcare workers and essential personnel. I wouldn't think we would  start vaccinating the public until sometime in spring of 2021 and even then each person will need 2 shots / 3 weeks apart so it will take some time. 

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15 minutes ago, loki007 said:

Probably late summer or fall of 2021. I work in the healthcare industry and we anticipate getting vaccine before the end of the year but the first doses will be earmarked for healthcare workers and essential personnel. I wouldn't think we would  start vaccinating the public until sometime in spring of 2021 and even then each person will need 2 shots / 3 weeks apart so it will take some time. 

 I agree,  The most complicate thing will be the -94f the vaccine need to be kept during shipment and for sure also how many people would agree to take the vaccine .

i do hope to here good news from Moderna soon and even more from one of the companies their vaccine require only 1 shots and need to be kept in normal fridge temperature. 

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  • Traveler changed the title to With the new Vaccine information when it will be possible to cruise normally

So many unknowns with the potential vaccines.  Potential side effects are not fully understood yet.  That makes it very difficult to predict the future.

My poorly educated guess thinks that if vaccines are commonly available by the summer of 2021 it will take a few months to see the results on paper or in charts but at that point we are entering the fall where we know the virus trends upward so the vaccine may only stabilize the charts into a flat line with many refusing to take a vaccine.

Other concerns such as how long does the vaccine protect you?  Is a second dose months later just as effective?  

What if the virus morphs into another variation and the vaccines become ineffective?

What does winter 2021-2022 look like if the vaccine has reached the end of it's expected protection period and the virus has morphed into something else?

My SWAG at an answer:

Best case scenario is that all 2021 cruises are all pandemic style, wear a mask, take only cruise ship excursions type cruises.

Best case scenario will see 2022 cruises starting to ease up pandemic mitigation protocols on board. 

Worst case scenario involves the anti-vaxxers keeping numbers trending up through the winter of 2021-2022 so that 2022 cruises can't let up with mitigation protocols.

I'm hoping 2023 will be a fully normal cruise year on whatever cruise lines have survived by that point.

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1 hour ago, twangster said:

My poorly educated guess thinks that if vaccines are commonly available by the summer of 2021 it will take a few months to see the results on paper or in charts but at that point we are entering the fall where we know the virus trends upward so the vaccine may only stabilize the charts into a flat line with many refusing to take a vaccine.

I tend to agree. I'm hoping by spring it begins hitting the masses.

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46 minutes ago, Matt said:

I tend to agree. I'm hoping by spring it begins hitting the masses.

Make sense as long as the FDA will approve it by the end of the year. Most of the companies already took the risk and started to produce the vaccine getting ready to the time they will get the approval. The issue is that even if it's 90% success I would still like to take a cruise knowing the other got the vaccine also so incase I am in the 10% I will be still safe.

Regarding the virus mutation , if the successful vaccine will be the mRNA time as Pfizer and Moderna it will be easier to change the vaccine and adjust it to the mutation. 

Regarding the effect time of the virus , since most of the phase two which includes enough people , started around July we will have much more information around May June.

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It is a fascinating time to live down the street from the Pfizer campus.

As you read/hear about the vaccine, please keep in mind that the efficacy rate of 90% will likely change as the next set of trial data is released.  The figure can go up or down - so don't be be surprised if you start hearing different information about Pfizer's vaccine.  The 90% is based on about 90 people in the trial still catching the virus.  The next threshold is when about 160 people in the trial catch it.  This data point may have already been reached yet no results released to the public - idk.

Rollout will be very interesting to watch.  DH & I have already wondered if the first shipments that roll out from Kalamazoo will be under cover of darkness or even with an escort of some sort.  What we know for sure is that the scientists at Pfizer and the other biotech firms work for the good of all.  As the vaccines are given the go ahead, they will be shared from the beginning with other nations - as they should be - imho.

Personally, we do not expect any vaccine to be available to us until June 2021 at the earliest.  I would rather be surprised that progress is "ahead of schedule" than face another full year of death by a thousand cuts for anything we plan for next year be it business or cruising.  We fully expect our 2021 cruise to be cancelled.  If we can jump on a boat later in 2021 that's great, otherwise we will just look forward to our 2022 cruise.

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On 11/15/2020 at 12:42 AM, ptod said:

It is a fascinating time to live down the street from the Pfizer campus.

As you read/hear about the vaccine, please keep in mind that the efficacy rate of 90% will likely change as the next set of trial data is released.  The figure can go up or down - so don't be be surprised if you start hearing different information about Pfizer's vaccine.  The 90% is based on about 90 people in the trial still catching the virus.  The next threshold is when about 160 people in the trial catch it.  This data point may have already been reached yet no results released to the public - idk.

Rollout will be very interesting to watch.  DH & I have already wondered if the first shipments that roll out from Kalamazoo will be under cover of darkness or even with an escort of some sort.  What we know for sure is that the scientists at Pfizer and the other biotech firms work for the good of all.  As the vaccines are given the go ahead, they will be shared from the beginning with other nations - as they should be - imho.

Personally, we do not expect any vaccine to be available to us until June 2021 at the earliest.  I would rather be surprised that progress is "ahead of schedule" than face another full year of death by a thousand cuts for anything we plan for next year be it business or cruising.  We fully expect our 2021 cruise to be cancelled.  If we can jump on a boat later in 2021 that's great, otherwise we will just look forward to our 2022 cruise.

You are raising good points , that is why I estimated only 50% of the production will go to the US.

Moderna just announced 94.5 success in their vaccine test , so Pfizer is not the only player now.

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Here are the numbers from Moderna test (from CNN)

n Moderna's trial, 15,000 study participants were given a placebo, which is a shot of saline that has no effect. Over several months, 90 of them developed Covid-19, with 11 developing severe forms of the disease.
 
Another 15,000 participants were given the vaccine, and only five of them developed Covid-19. None of the five became severely ill.
 
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Better news and results that Pfizer right now...this one seems like it would be much easier to distribute as well based on the fact it doesn't need to be kept at extreme cold temps!

 

Thanks to "operation warp speed" it appears things may get better sooner than was reasonably expected.......cruising in fall 2021 will hopefully be a reality!

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4 minutes ago, monctonguy said:

Better news and results that Pfizer right now...this one seems like it would be much easier to distribute as well based on the fact it doesn't need to be kept at extreme cold temps!

 

Thanks to "operation warp speed" it appears things may get better sooner than was reasonably expected.......cruising in fall 2021 will hopefully be a reality!

As far as I understand Moderna vaccine is based on the same method as Pfizer and will require to be ship under the same conditions more and less, but still a good news 

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No...not in the article I read...2-8 degrees it has to be kept at and good for up to 30 days at a time..not -80 degrees to be kept at...if true, thats a HUGE advantage and game changer

 

A key advantage of Moderna's vaccine is that it does not need ultra-cold storage like Pfizer's, making it easier to distribute. Moderna expects it to be stable at normal fridge temperatures of 2 to 8 degrees Celsius (36 to 48°F) for 30 days and it can be stored for up to 6 months at -20C.

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21 minutes ago, monctonguy said:

No...not in the article I read...2-8 degrees it has to be kept at and good for up to 30 days at a time..not -80 degrees to be kept at...if true, thats a HUGE advantage and game changer

 

A key advantage of Moderna's vaccine is that it does not need ultra-cold storage like Pfizer's, making it easier to distribute. Moderna expects it to be stable at normal fridge temperatures of 2 to 8 degrees Celsius (36 to 48°F) for 30 days and it can be stored for up to 6 months at -20C.

Yes, I see it now also in the CNN article "

Moderna's vaccine can be kept at minus 20 degrees Celsius. Other vaccines, such as the one against chickenpox, need to be kept at that temperature.
 
That means Moderna's vaccine can be kept in "a readily available freezer that is available in most doctors' offices and pharmacies," Zacks said. "We leverage infrastructure that already exists for other"
 
For some reason some other sites give different information 
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Pfizer just announced on the final results of the stage 3 trails and the numbers are even better 95% (94% for the age of 65 +) .

Best on the results they are going to ask for emergency FDA approval.

I will not be surprised if now Moderna will come with final results of 95.5 🙂  

Anyway good news.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/18/health/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-safety/index.html

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1 hour ago, Traveler said:

Pfizer just announced on the final results of the stage 3 trails and the numbers are even better 95% (94% for the age of 65 +) .

Best on the results they are going to ask for emergency FDA approval.

I will not be surprised if now Moderna will come with final results of 95.5 🙂  

Anyway good news.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/18/health/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-safety/index.html

Definitely very good news. But we do need to keep a few caveats in mind. This one is probably the biggest:

Quote

"Based on current projections, the companies expect to produce globally up to 50 million vaccine doses in 2020 and up to 1.3 billion doses in 2021," they said.

That initial 50 million will be earmarked first for healthcare workers -- doctors, nurses, EMTs, hospital employees like X-Ray / CT scan / other imaging techs, other hospital employees like the sanitation crews who might come into contact with exposed individuals, etc. -- and other front-line workers like police (who are often the ones who initially respond to 911 calls for medical help).

After that first critical group is immunized, then the second group in line gets protected -- essential workers like grocery store employees and other must-be-open jobs, elderly in nursing homes, and other ultra-high-risk individuals.

Third group is those who are not in the above, but still have medical conditions that put them at higher risk (asthma, heart conditions, clotting disorders, etc.)

I forget the criteria for fourth vs fifth groups, but suffice to say that it's going to take a long time to get everyone on planet Earth vaccinated. If they can only make "up to" 1.3 billion doses in 2021, that's only a bit over 1/6 of the total population. Granted, that 1/6 will also likely overlap a lot with the most populous countries on earth, but China alone had 1.4 billion people as of 2019.

We'll have to see what the production capacity of Moderna's vaccine is expected to be to get a real sense of how fast we can get the bulk of the world's population immunized, but even if it's exactly the same, we're talking about 3 years to get everyone protected, assuming these remain the two best vaccine options and none of the others currently in trials show similar effectiveness. And in the meantime, we have to keep an eye out for mutations in the virus and continue working to avoid flare-ups in regions that haven't yet reached herd immunity levels.

 

But in further good news: Initial research of immune response in recovered patients (yet to be peer-reviewed) is starting to indicate that the immune system does indeed produce the expected long-lived response. Once acquired, immunity may well last for years like with any other disease. Initial reports of short-lived immunity were based on the lack of antibodies after a few months, even though antibodies are naturally short-lived. Now they're tracking the presence of B-Cells (which make fresh antibodies) and T-Cells (which find and kill infected cells) and measure how long those are lasting. And it's looking like our immune systems are indeed working normally, as long as you get through the hell of fighting off the disease.

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