CDC Conditional Sailing Order

[mattymay]

2 hours ago, princevaliantus said:

NOW, the big questions if when flying into a state, let's say Florida for this example:

- Do we fly in the same day and straight onto the boat?

- Can we fly in a day prior and would this affect any mandatory quarantine regulations?

- Flying back home from Florida, do we have to quarantine once we fly back into our home state considering Florida is on many banned state lists?

There are lots of questions yet to be answered and address by either the cruise line and/or State agencies.

Unless you live in the right place most people won't be cruising anyways. Fix the actual issue and eradicate the virus. Only then will cruising resume to normal.

[ErinD]

I'm ready!!!!

[Cmaccullen]

3 hours ago, twangster said:

If the U.S. in general would adopt half of the mitigation protocols proposed by cruise ships it would go a long way to getting the situation under control.  

The cruise industry has an opportunity to show America how to open and operate successfully despite a pandemic.  

Besides, the biggest elephant in the room may have left the building in a few months.  

How to show America how to open? Lol

[twangster]

2 hours ago, Cmaccullen said:

How to show America how to open? Lol

If cruises can operate with minimum impact just think how we could scale that experience to open America.  Or we could just open America and not give a hoot.  

[Matt]

[cruisellama]

19 hours ago, RBRSKI said:

Brilliant!!!!

Wondered about the B2B model.  Have one in June and have concerns as it's out of Italy.

[RBRSKI]

Good Morning,

Reading some of these headlines on "Cruise Industry News":

Port Traffic To Be Limited, Cruise Lines Will Need Housing Agreements

CDC Drops No Sail Order For Framework For Conditional Sailing Order

I believe all of these requirements are fair and call me crazy, I would hope with the time not sailing these cruise lines have already thought and delveopled plans very similar.  

Now the big question,  Will the CDC drag their feet scheduling these inspections and give the cruise industry a quick response!!!!  Oh God, it's the government, we are doomed  !  LOL

[RBRSKI]

Me again!

I know no date is set in stone, but I have to say I wake this morning with HOPE!!!!   With everything going on,  it truly puts a smile on our families face with the good news we received yesterday.

[twangster]

3 minutes ago, RBRSKI said:

Me again!

I know no date is set in stone, but I have to say I wake this morning with HOPE!!!!   With everything going on,  it truly puts a smile on our family with the good news we received yesterday.

Plus it's fun to watch the Port of Miami webcams with greater interest now!

https://youtu.be/xuoy96nMcUk

https://youtu.be/d11qKztvBAM

[ErinD]

I'm so ready!!!

[jticarruthers]

21 hours ago, RBRSKI said:

Where do I sign up to be a test cruiser?  I can be at Port Everglades in 20 minutes

4 hours for me but i can go on 5 minutes notice

[RBRSKI]

48 minutes ago, twangster said:

Plus it's fun to watch the Port of Miami webcams with greater interest now!

https://youtu.be/xuoy96nMcUk

https://youtu.be/d11qKztvBAM

I think I saw the skeleton crew dancing on the top decks with the news from yesterday!

[RBRSKI]

Can't we stay a little positive!  

[RBRSKI]

I totally understand but any positive News now a days is better then the crap we have endured over the last few months!

[twangster]

The restart will be a process.  That has never been in question. 

The process has begun!  

[MrMarc]

I would think at least 30 days to get the test cruises in, gather and analyze the data and get the testing capabilities in place, then file the paperwork and wait for 60 days.  Using this time table the earliest payed passenger cruises could start would be February.

[Lovetocruise2002]

2 hours ago, RBRSKI said:

Can't we stay a little positive!  

Or at least refrain from posting the same negativity on multiple threads. 

[RBRSKI]

1 hour ago, Lovetocruise2002 said:

Or at least refrain from posting the same negativity on multiple threads. 

I don't think I said anything negative?

[Lovetocruise2002]

4 minutes ago, RBRSKI said:

I don't think I said anything negative?

No, you did not. 

[mattymay]

6 hours ago, twangster said:

The restart will be a process.  That has never been in question. 

The process has begun!  

[pezzy669]

Still have my fingers crossed for my 12/17 cruise out of Tampa (Brilliance of the Seas) - RCL still has it for sale on their site.  

The 60 day timeline to submit plans and get approval I guess could cause some confusion among folks not working for the cruise lines.  For all we know they may have been working behind the scenes this whole time and have already done everything and requested necessary approvals to sail. 

Here is to hoping for the best!     

[twangster]

No cruise line knows how quickly the CDC will do their part to grant approvals at milestones.  Cruise lines won't want to cancel future cruises prematurely and have to issue refunds and more FCC however it is certain that some additional cancellations are coming. 

Government is rarely known for being efficient and timely.  We all hope for the best but prepare for the worst.  

Cruise lines don't have all the answers.  They are hoping like we are but they don't know when the first passenger cruise will sail anymore than we do.  

The restart will start slow and small but it is on the horizon for the coming months. 

[JeffB]

Not to be argumentative but, since we're speculating, I think RCL and Celebrity know with some level of certainty which cruises will sail and on what dates those sailings will occur.

I can speak with some level of knowledge about Celebrity (1) becasue I'm interested in how a cruise gets planned and stocked for a voyage and (2) I've asked crew and Celebrity staff in the know about such things out of pure curiosity. The line is obsessive about planning, profitability of a cruise given load factors, logistics, port call arrangements and more. Of course there's some uncertainty but I would assume they have a gated plan for each cruise with a threshold of events checked. If the gate isn't made (i.e., not enough tasks checked off) it's going to get cancelled. As each cruise passes through a gate, it will move closer to actually sailing.

I also tend to think that selected individuals within RCG, sometime in October after the Pence intervention, knew that the no-sail-order was going to be lifted on 10/30, knew they could start non-rev proof of concept sailings in November and revenue sailings in December. Therefore plans were submitted to the CDC to affect these practice cruises under the cover of the CDC's guidance for crew only manned cruise ships (The Red, Yellow and Green thing).

I'm going to make a WAG ....... the first revenue cruise will start on or about the second week of December. Never mind that I might be influenced in this WAG by my booking on Celebrity Millennium out of Miami, 5N sailing on 12/28.  

[PG Cruiser]

On 10/31/2020 at 1:24 PM, RBRSKI said:

Can't we stay a little positive!  

Staying positive these days is not very acceptable... COVID positive, that is.

Just kidding

[cruisellama]

1 hour ago, JeffB said:

Not to be argumentative but, since we're speculating, I think RCL and Celebrity know with some level of certainty which cruises will sail and on what dates those sailings will occur.

I can speak with some level of knowledge about Celebrity (1) becasue I'm interested in how a cruise gets planned and stocked for a voyage and (2) I've asked crew and Celebrity staff in the know about such things out of pure curiosity. The line is obsessive about planning, profitability of a cruise given load factors, logistics, port call arrangements and more. Of course there's some uncertainty but I would assume they have a gated plan for each cruise with a threshold of events checked. If the gate isn't made (i.e., not enough tasks checked off) it's going to get cancelled. As each cruise passes through a gate, it will move closer to actually sailing.

I also tend to think that selected individuals within RCG, sometime in October after the Pence intervention, knew that the no-sail-order was going to be lifted on 10/30, knew they could start non-rev proof of concept sailings in November and revenue sailings in December. Therefore plans were submitted to the CDC to affect these practice cruises under the cover of the CDC's guidance for crew only manned cruise ships (The Red, Yellow and Green thing).

I'm going to make a WAG ....... the first revenue cruise will start on or about the second week of December. Never mind that I might be influenced in this WAG by my booking on Celebrity Millennium out of Miami, 5N sailing on 12/28.  

Like your train of thought.  Just to swerve into your second paragraph - I was in a conversation with a Celebrity Beverage director and asked if RCL and Celebrity had a common supply chain for provisioning.   I was very surprised when he said no -they had their own logistic supply chains. I find that hard to believe from a cost savings (efficiency) perspective. Do you have any insight into supply chain commonality between the family members?

[JeffB]

10 hours ago, cruisellama said:

Do you have any insight into supply chain commonality between the family members?

Not anything solid. I'm not telling you anything you probably don't know but hotels, airlines and cruise lines have developed sophisticated ways of optimizing profitability and logistics is key with the cruise lines having very large and complex logistics chains. I believe that high levels of efficiency in this aspect of the cruise line business, next to human resources, is hugely important. Making the logistics chain work efficiently and at the lowest costs is a focus for them. 

That's why I posted my comment about Celebrity's obsession with planning. How the cruise lines in general relaunch revenue operations is going to be key to profitability going forward. Screw this up, have it be less efficient and more costly than is absolutely necessary, will create drag on profits ...... that is not what these companies need after 9 months of bottom line disaster.

[JB1082]

On 10/30/2020 at 3:08 PM, nate91 said:

I agree. As much as we'd love to see the testing schedule and know every little detail, those may not be released. All we're likely to see is which cruises they plan to sail, at least in early December. They seem to be trying to cancel cruises about a month out, so I'm guessing the next week will let us know which ships they are likely to start with.

I do however, think that they *could* be ready for paying customers on December 1st (staying optimistic). They have a lot of these requirements laid out already with the Healthy Sail Panel, and I assume that they are ready to go at implementing these. Due to having multiple ships, they could do something like:

First week of November: Gather crew, prepare plans, do testing and quarantining that hasn't already been completed as well as training.

Second week of November: Run "test cruises" that don't leave the port with crew members as staff and as guests. This could be a 3/4 night in Miami and a 7 night in FLL. 

Third week of November: Have same two ships do another test cruise, but leave the dock, visit Cococay and follow all requirements.

Fourth week of November: Repeat of third week, ensure all protocols are working, tweak plans if necessary, cancel more cruises or add more cruises depending on demand and CDC.

First week of December: Cruises start.

 

Obviously just an idea. But I could see it working.

In theory the above makes sense...My biggest question for Royal and other cruise lines is how do they procure and execute all the PCR tests needed to comply with the order?

[princevaliantus]

8 minutes ago, JB1082 said:

In theory the above makes sense...My biggest question for Royal and other cruise lines is how do they procure and execute all the PCR tests needed to comply with the order?

How else you ask?? They will most likely pass along the cost to their loyal cruisers and stock pile all the test/medical equipment they need to battle this awful virus.

[JB1082]

3 minutes ago, princevaliantus said:

How else you ask?? They will most likely pass along the cost to their loyal cruisers and stock pile all the test/medical equipment they need to battle this awful virus.

The costs I get - I'm more wondering how do they actually do it - like is CVS going to pop-up at the Pier?

[princevaliantus]

4 minutes ago, JB1082 said:

The costs I get - I'm more wondering how do they actually do it - like is CVS going to pop-up at the Pier?

It will be done sometime during the check-in process inside the terminal. This is something and/or the logistics that all cruise lines need to work on and accommodate an area inside the terminal for these test and pending results as no boarding will be done until the individual passenger and/or all passengers in a given family or group come back with negative results. Then, and only then, can you/they board.

[jticarruthers]

On 10/31/2020 at 12:25 PM, jticarruthers said:

4 hours for me but i can go on 5 minutes notice

Expanding on this, I just let my boss know i am taking the rest of the year as PTO "just in case" ... I will begrudgingly report to work on days when I don't get called in to volunteer as an unpaid intern on a cruise though.

[cruisellama]

2 hours ago, JeffB said:

Not anything solid. I'm not telling you anything you probably don't know but hotels, airlines and cruise lines have developed sophisticated ways of optimizing profitability and logistics is key with the cruise lines having very large and complex logistics chains. I believe that high levels of efficiency in this aspect of the cruise line business, next to human resources, is hugely important. Making the logistics chain work efficiently and at the lowest costs is a focus for them. 

That's why I posted my comment about Celebrity's obsession with planning. How the cruise lines in general relaunch revenue operations is going to be key to profitability going forward. Screw this up, have it be less efficient and more costly than is absolutely necessary, will create drag on profits ...... that is not what these companies need after 9 months of bottom line disaster.

With the depression in fuel cost due to lockdowns, there's some opportunity to pick up some margin in fuel cost if they can only get back to cruising.  

[jaullram]

I read the order (I am not lawyer), but it looks like cruise lines need to 1st meet all of the CDCs requirements in the order then 2nd, apply to the CDC a request (30 days prior) to conduct a simulated voyage (page 27, footnote 17) and then after those sailing(s), 3rd apply to the CDC a request (60 days prior) to begin conditional sailings (page 28, footnote 18).  I think that the application for conditional sailings has to be after the simulated sailings occur because page 29, part 8, says that the cruise lines need to certify that they are in compliance with all of the other requirements in the framework (which I believe, includes having simulated cruises). If that is the case, I unfortunately, don't see how sailings will begin until February or March at the earliest.  Hopefully Royal will announce something as I can't wait to get back on the open seas!!!

[twangster]

51 minutes ago, jaullram said:

I read the order (I am not lawyer), but it looks like cruise lines need to 1st meet all of the CDCs requirements in the order then 2nd, apply to the CDC a request (30 days prior) to conduct a simulated voyage (page 27, footnote 17) and then after those sailing(s), 3rd apply to the CDC a request (60 days prior) to begin conditional sailings (page 28, footnote 18).  I think that the application for conditional sailings has to be after the simulated sailings occur because page 29, part 8, says that the cruise lines need to certify that they are in compliance with all of the other requirements in the framework (which I believe, includes having simulated cruises). If that is the case, I unfortunately, don't see how sailings will begin until February or March at the earliest.  Hopefully Royal will announce something as I can't wait to get back on the open seas!!!

Words in the order have meaning without question.  In places it seems there is suggestion that 60 days is ideal but not an absolute hard number unless a ship has been outside of U.S. water and comes to the U.S. from somewhere else.

The bottom line is that we can all over-analyze the placement and use of words in the order but at the end of the day there are milestones to complete that will progress as the CDC sees fit.  No one including any cruise line can predict how the CDC will respond as milestones are reached.  

One cruise line or ship may get there is X days, another cruise line or ship may get there in Y days.

Only time will tell and that may frustrate some people when cruise lines don't cancel cruises to their liking.

[JLMoran]

@cruisellama, I can believe that RCL and X have separate suppliers for their logistics operations simply due to the differences in what each line will be ordering, both in terms of quality and specific choices.

Look at the bars, for example. X is known for having a surprisingly good set of craft beer options, a wine selection that actually gets split into "regular" and "premium" tiers for their drink packages (along with those beers), and things like a huge selection of scotch whiskeys and other premium liquors. Royal, not so much; bulk domestic beer with a couple of bulk imports, some well-known relatively bulk wines along with a modest selection of mid-tier options, and "well" spirits with the common brands available.

The dining on X is known for being as good in the MDR as any specialty venue on Royal, and specialty venues a cut above that; whereas Royal's MDR is more at the level of "fair to middling" and the specialty places are akin to higher-end chain venues on land (with CK being the notable exception in my experience; I'm guessing they approach X's MDR). That'll partly be due to differences in the chefs employed, their skills levels, etc. But also in large part to freshness of ingredients, use of higher-quality cuts of meat, fresh-caught fish vs. farmed, and so on.

Different suppliers can meet the needs of one better than the other. So X will use suppliers known for reliably high quality and premium selection, while Royal goes with the more typical bulk supplier. Maybe not so much with things like romaine lettuce, butter, or eggs; unless X is doing things like buying certified organic while Royal doesn't. But for those other aspects it's totally believable.

[twangster]

18 hours ago, JeffB said:

Not to be argumentative but, since we're speculating, I think RCL and Celebrity know with some level of certainty which cruises will sail and on what dates those sailings will occur.

I'm not so sure.   The CDC hasn't changed it's position on cruise ships.  The CDC does not them want sailing with passengers.

The CDC was directed not to extend the NSO.  Okay fine.  So they came up with the CSO where they have numerous checkpoints they need to approve on a ship by ship basis.  If anything they have strengthened their grasp on cruise ships and have taken it from yes or no on a global basis to finite control on a ship by ship basis with elusive verbiage and no clear path forward.  

As this game starts to play out not only can the CDC "move the goalposts" but they can change the sport being played on the field mid-game.  Cruise lines show up with a football team ready to play only to discover at half time it's now a lacrosse game and they lose.

I think the CDC is buying time hoping for a new administration that will accept their findings without interference.  

As a result I don't think cruise lines know what ship will be allowed to sail or when.  

[Tanner]

8 hours ago, twangster said:

I'm not so sure.   The CDC hasn't changed it's position on cruise ships.  The CDC does not them want sailing with passengers.

The CDC was directed not to extend the NSO.  Okay fine.  So they came up with the CSO where they have numerous checkpoints they need to approve on a ship by ship basis.  If anything they have strengthened their grasp on cruise ships and have taken it from yes or no on a global basis to finite control on a ship by ship basis with elusive verbiage and no clear path forward.  

As this game starts to play out not only can the CDC "move the goalposts" but they can change the sport being played on the field mid-game.  Cruise lines show up with a football team ready to play only to discover at half time it's now a lacrosse game and they lose.

I think the CDC is buying time hoping for a new administration that will accept their findings without interference.  

As a result I don't think cruise lines know what ship will be allowed to sail or when.  

So true.  I just posted this on the facebook page:

the biggest lack of clarity is in terms of what will be considered "cruising safely." Will the CDC view one case of Covid-19, a statistical "outbreak", or failure to adhere to meet the standards as the end all be all. Clearly, not following rules will result in one line being shut down but will it shut down the industry? Will one "outbreak" on one ship out of 10 mean anything for a particular cruise line? Is one Covid case too much for the CDC? None of this has been made clear and this is problematic. Trying to kick a field goal with moving goal posts is impossible. I think these things need to be set out in advance in a very clear manner so passengers, cruise lines, and other industry partners understand what is at stake.

[cruisellama]

37 minutes ago, Tanner said:

So true.  I just this on the facebook page:

the biggest lack of clarity is in terms of what will be considered "cruising safely." Will the CDC view one case of Covid-19, a statistical "outbreak", or failure to adhere to meet the standards as the end all be all. Clearly, not following rules will result in one line being shut down but will it shut down the industry? Will one "outbreak" on one ship out of 10 mean anything for a particular cruise line? Is one Covid case too much for the CDC? None of this has been made clear and this is problematic. Trying to kick a field goal with moving goal posts is impossible. I think these things need to be set out in advance in a very clear manner so passengers, cruise lines, and other industry partners understand what is at stake.

Deliberate ambiguity allows for control.

[nate91]

5 minutes ago, cruisellama said:

Deliberate ambiguity allows for control.

Well stated. And the changing goalposts that a few have mentioned. I refrain from politics here, but the fact remains that much of this cruise shutdown and pandemic in general, has become more politicized than a health related situation should be. I have seen many organizations, governmental or otherwise, use this as an opportunity to gain more power, and I'm afraid the CDC is one of the organizations that sees the pandemic as allowing them to have broader powers than they had before 2020.

[mattymay]

Control the virus, then the CDC has no say.