Getting Reluctant

[Al Horner]

I've got two cruises booked (rebooked from previous cruises). One on May 2nd, 2021 on the Liberty of the Seas and one in July 2021 on a Celebrity ship. Neither are paid off. Normally, I pay my cruises off as early as possible. Now, I don't want to pay them off until the last possible minute. The May 2nd cruise has phenomenal perks due to being canceled (by RCL) and rescheduled twice. I thought the May 2nd cruise would be safe but now it's beginning to look there's a real possibility they won't be sailing by then. I am really tired of rebooking but I hate to lose those perks. I love cruising but I'm just not sure it's ever going to come back. 

[USFFrank]

Just like almost everyone else on this board I hate it too. I was supposed to be on Oasis of the Seas next month. I just rescheduled my Carnival cruise for the second time. All I can say is you just gotta keep waiting. Contrary to what the media and the cruise haters may say, progress is being made and we will be back.

[JLMoran]

Cruising will definitely come back, the only question is how long it will take. The CDC's latest move has effectively guaranteed that even if sailing resumes in limited form in 2021, so many people are going to be turned off by the prospect due to CDC fear-mongering that it could take several years for it to return to its prior levels in the US.

But if you're looking at cruising "across the pond", things are still working out over there as far as how the various governments are treating the industry and how the new protocols are proving themselves.

My forecast at this point (which you can imagine is about as reliable as me forecasting the weather for the next 5 days) is that cruising worldwide is still going to be in shambles until July / Aug 2021. That's about how long it'll take for vaccines to become widely distributed and a good portion of the population to get them. Starting around then, I'm guessing that cruising everywhere but the US is likely to pick back up rapidly; but don't be surprised if you have to show proof of vaccination no matter where you are coming from (including, and maybe especially, for US residents unless we get our infection rate back down Real Fast Now). International travel in general will probably require that for several years, while we wait to see if Covid mutates and whether the vaccines are good for life (like Measles vaccines) or if people will need a booster shot after some period.

Cruising out of the US has just been shot and left to die by the CDC. I don't see that coming back to normal levels for at least 5 years now, thanks to their interference. @Matt's article/commentary about this sums up my own anger pretty well. I don't care what the procedural / political / governmental reasons are for their treatment of cruising vs. air travel, it's complete BS.

[twangster]

The 2021 restart should be enough to stem the losses for most cruise lines.  It should keep them around long enough to reach a future date when things will be closer to the old normal.  However 2021 won't be a banner year.  Look towards 2022 and 2023 for cruising to be back in concept but perhaps not at the same prices we used to enjoy.

[jticarruthers]

37 minutes ago, twangster said:

The 2021 restart should be enough to stem the losses for most cruise lines.  It should keep them around long enough to reach a future date when things will be closer to the old normal.  However 2021 won't be a banner year.  Look towards 2022 and 2023 for cruising to be back in concept but perhaps not at the same prices we used to enjoy.

I dont see a 2021 restart as guaranteed .. by the time the cruise lines meet the CDC's "latest" standard and without political pressure from above i suspect those standards are going to continue to morph, it may very well be 2022.

[FionaMG]

3 hours ago, JLMoran said:

My forecast at this point is that cruising worldwide is still going to be in shambles until July / Aug 2021.

I'm inclined to agree with you. I'm hoping our Harmony cruise will actually happen in September 2021 but not counting on it. Luckily that was purchased as refundable so I will still be able to switch it to something further down the line but I'd really hate to lose the amazing price I got it at.

[monctonguy]

Yeah...we had hoped to book a 2nd one for 2021 for double points..to Bermuda...but the prices are now double what they were a couple weeks ago...and we are Covid weary and tired of it all...so fingers crossed for our Nov 2021 cruise to work out but thats it at this point.

 

As I stated here before..I suspect June is when we start to see cruising resume on a small scale in the US..I think by the fall things should be much more easier and dare I say somewhat back to normalcy......but that can all change very quickly.....

 

 

[RBRSKI]

Royal needs a PLAN “B” desperately. Why are they waiting for the US government.  Start in a foreign port for example Nassau.   Ships already dock occasionally in US Port for what reason . I don’t know but restart stocking ships with US supplies move ship to locations that will allow embarkation.  

[CruisinForABruisin]

1 hour ago, RBRSKI said:

Royal needs a PLAN “B” desperately. Why are they waiting for the US government.  Start in a foreign port for example Nassau.   Ships already dock occasionally in US Port for what reason . I don’t know but restart stocking ships with US supplies move ship to locations that will allow embarkation.  

And what country is gonna allow the people on those ships back in after the sailing is over?

[RBRSKI]

4 minutes ago, CruisinForABruisin said:

And what country is gonna allow the people on those ships back in after the sailing is over?

The smart ones who need their economy stimulated.  I believe they can do it in a safe matter. Keep our ports shut down and see what cruise lines will figure out how to make it happen elsewhere   Although I don’t think they wil Lose many but all inclusive resorts will see an increase  

 

[CruisinForABruisin]

23 minutes ago, RBRSKI said:

The smart ones who need their economy stimulated.  I believe they can do it in a safe matter. Keep our ports shut down and see what cruise lines will figure out how to make it happen elsewhere   Although I don’t think they wil Lose many but all inclusive resorts will see an increase  

 

Not going to happen

[RBRSKI]

5 minutes ago, CruisinForABruisin said:

Not going to happen

Time will tell and we shall see!

[Jill]

On 11/25/2020 at 4:42 PM, RBRSKI said:

Time will tell and we shall see!

The supply chain is not there on islands. Everything is shipped into these islands making those items super expensive. The infrastructure is simply not there and no one has the money to put such infrastructure there.  Cruise terminals that accommodate thousands of people are not going to happen. 

[twangster]

It's a catch 22.  

Cruise ships can't sail while the virus spreads so quickly.  It doesn't matter what home port they use, the SeaDream experience teaches us that no government wants to deal with any quantity of cases regardless if it's 5 or 500 cases.  

Cruise ships will only sail in any measurable way once the pandemic is over.  The virus may still be around just not in pandemic levels of infections.  Once we reach that point ships will be sailing from America.

Finding some crafty way around the CDC restrictions doesn't accomplish anything because no government is going to want ships with sick people to return.  Cruising won't be back until the opportunity for spread is very low.   

[RBRSKI]

Royal should be announcing any day now that cruises suspended until 2/1/21!  

[PaulRC]

I think they are waiting to see what happens with the Quantum OTS out of Singapore If they cancel and the stock takes a hit then the QOTS has to return with COVID issues that would be a second hit to close together.  If QOTS goes good and they cancel the Jan cruises it will be less of an impact of the stock price. If QOFS comes back bad then the canceling of the JAN cruises would look like they are linked to that event and again the hit would be less then 2 individual events.  That's what I would do anyway.

[RBRSKI]

The Singapore Cruises could go without one hitch, our Government doesn't give a hoot!  Our government has it in for the cruise industry!   Did you see the airports this weekend!  The cruise lines have in place better social distancing guidelines then airport and airline operations.  How about flying on two of the us major airlines  that pack people into those thin flying metal tubes without the center seat occupied.  Please give me a break!  

[PaulRC]

6 minutes ago, RBRSKI said:

Our government has it in for the cruise industry! 

I agree you on this and I think it has to do with where they registered there ships.  The USA gets no taxes or less from  them because they are all done overseas.

[RBRSKI]

6 minutes ago, PaulRC said:

I agree you on this and I think it has to do with where they registered there ships.  The USA gets no taxes or less from  them because they are all done overseas.

Thank You for having some common sense feed back, it is well welcomed!!!!

[Andy & Sheryl Unwin]

We have a simple method on this.  Next year we have 2 cruises booked, one in Feb 21, the other in Sep 21.  If all goes well, we can enjoy both, if not then we can leapfrog them with Lift n Shift to the following year. 

The Feb 21 is already paid for, so it simply leapfrogs the september 21 sailing and goes to Feb 22. We would have had to pay the final funds on the september sailing at the end of june anyway. 

So, with these 2 cruises positioned to be able to play leapfrog, we can just keep doing that until the day we are able to walk up the gangway again.

I dont see any of the major lines in general, nor Royal in particular going bust.  So as it was money we would have spent anyway, its simply in reserve.

[RBRSKI]

A headline from the WWW,    "The CDC May Require Full Ship Quarantine for Single Positive Case". 

How many curve balls from the US Government will it take before the cruise lines start with Plan "B" for new embarkation locations?

[Matt]

51 minutes ago, RBRSKI said:

How many curve balls from the US Government will it take before the cruise lines start with Plan "B" for new embarkation locations?

It wont happen. US is too big of a market to try to circumvent. They have no choice from a business perspective but to work with it.

[PaulRC]

48 minutes ago, RBRSKI said:

How many curve balls from the US Government will it take before the cruise lines start with Plan "B" for new embarkation locations?

US cruisers are to profitable for them to not sail from here.  Not saying the US is the most profitable I have no idea but even if it is 25% of thee revenue stream there is not way they will be able to give that up. Maybe in the short term they would but long term never.   And of the US passengers only a small percent would fly over seas to cruise imho.  They will have to play ball no matter how dumb the CDC is being. 

[twangster]

3 minutes ago, Matt said:

It wont happen. US is too big of a market to try to circumvent. They have no choice from a business perspective but to work with it.

Agreed.  They can't scale small islands to what cruising from America looks like and at the end of the day a few die hards might accept the additional cost and inconvenience of boarding in the Caribbean or Bahamas but it won't be accepted by the masses. 

[loki007]

On 11/25/2020 at 9:12 AM, kontraxed said:

I've got two cruises booked (rebooked from previous cruises). One on May 2nd, 2021 on the Liberty of the Seas and one in July 2021 on a Celebrity ship. Neither are paid off. Normally, I pay my cruises off as early as possible. Now, I don't want to pay them off until the last possible minute. The May 2nd cruise has phenomenal perks due to being canceled (by RCL) and rescheduled twice. I thought the May 2nd cruise would be safe but now it's beginning to look there's a real possibility they won't be sailing by then. I am really tired of rebooking but I hate to lose those perks. I love cruising but I'm just not sure it's ever going to come back. 

my December cruise was cancelled by RC and I decided on the full refund vs. the 125% credit. I'll cruise again when I don't have to wear a mask. thinking 2022 as it will take most of 2021 to get people vaccinated sufficiently. 

 

[RBRSKI]

With the amount of money the cruise lines are hemorrhaging on a monthly basis 

Money that they have been able to secure in the past will eventually dry up

And the CDC with unrealistic guidelines that will be pushed further into 2021

Cruise companies have to come up with Plan "B" not including US ports!

And I beg to differ,  MANY American's will find a way to the ships!!!!  You are under estimating the power of cruising and Caribbean ports that can support embarkation days.

If Royal was able to generate over 100,000 applicants for test cruises, I would think a survey of those same 100,000 people, many would say they would travel via air if able to cruise sooner.

[RBRSKI]

NCL just Cxld thru end of February. We need a Plan “B”.   

[CruisinForABruisin]

12 minutes ago, RBRSKI said:

NCL just Cxld thru end of February. We need a Plan “B”.   

"We". Just sit back and relax. You're not making any decisions, and they are scouring internet boards for solutions on how to handle a pandemic. Cruising will return, worrying about it won't bring it back any faster.

[RBRSKI]

7 minutes ago, CruisinForABruisin said:

"We". Just sit back and relax. You're not making any decisions, and they are scouring internet boards for solutions on how to handle a pandemic. Cruising will return, worrying about it won't bring it back any faster.

While I respect your OPINION on how you will handle this situation by just “sitting back and relaxing”. It makes me feel a little better sharing my ideas.  I hope they are reading the boards for some suggestions.  Sometimes a perspective from the outside will help solve problems or show a different approach. I like thinking outside the box and not let people or things tell me how to think. 

[CruisinForABruisin]

27 minutes ago, RBRSKI said:

While I respect your OPINION on how you will handle this situation by just “sitting back and relaxing”. It makes me feel a little better sharing my ideas.  I hope they are reading the boards for some suggestions.  Sometimes a perspective from the outside will help solve problems or show a different approach. I like thinking outside the box and not let people or things tell me how to think. 

Scientists>>>>>>>>>...>>>>>>>>random people on internet boards.

[cruisellama]

On 12/1/2020 at 10:32 AM, RBRSKI said:

With the amount of money the cruise lines are hemorrhaging on a monthly basis 

Money that they have been able to secure in the past will eventually dry up

And the CDC with unrealistic guidelines that will be pushed further into 2021

Cruise companies have to come up with Plan "B" not including US ports!

And I beg to differ,  MANY American's will find a way to the ships!!!!  You are under estimating the power of cruising and Caribbean ports that can support embarkation days.

If Royal was able to generate over 100,000 applicants for test cruises, I would think a survey of those same 100,000 people, many would say they would travel via air if able to cruise sooner.

  I can get on-board with  your point, but I don't have a warm fuzzy non-US ports would accept US citizens without a quarantine period or vaccine verification.  So just booking a flight to a non-US port might not be practical.   Now hearing it may not be until Q3 '21 before a majority of Americans have an opportunity for vaccine.   Going to be a cash issue for the lines if something doesn't help relieve pressure.  Just collecting deposits isn't going to cut it.

[Andy & Sheryl Unwin]

On 11/30/2020 at 4:31 PM, Andy & Sheryl Unwin said:

We have a simple method on this.  Next year we have 2 cruises booked, one in Feb 21, the other in Sep 21.  If all goes well, we can enjoy both, if not then we can leapfrog them with Lift n Shift to the following year. 

The Feb 21 is already paid for, so it simply leapfrogs the september 21 sailing and goes to Feb 22. We would have had to pay the final funds on the september sailing at the end of june anyway. 

So, with these 2 cruises positioned to be able to play leapfrog, we can just keep doing that until the day we are able to walk up the gangway again.

I dont see any of the major lines in general, nor Royal in particular going bust.  So as it was money we would have spent anyway, its simply in reserve.

So, the game is afoot. Our Feb 2021 sailing is cancelled, so that will leapfrog over the September 2021 sailing and land in somewhere in Feb 2022. Likely will take a FCC on this one.

[JLMoran]

37 minutes ago, cruisellama said:

Going to be a cash issue for the lines if something doesn't help relieve pressure.  Just collecting deposits isn't going to cut it.

Just because they can't sail from the US doesn't mean they can't sail from anywhere. Enough precedent has been set at this point over in Europe that I'm quite confident there will be regular sailings in much of 2021 out of Europe and Asia; just none carrying US residents for a time.

I know the US is a lucrative region for all the cruise companies, but all they have to start doing in the very short term is dramatically slow the fiscal bleeding. Getting regular sailings going again out of EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Asia) should go a long way with that, as they get a good chunk of their ships back to breaking even at worst, and ideally making a small profit per sailing. Then it's just the ones being kept near the US for eventual restart that will be the big money bleeders.

Long as that's enough to keep them going until the end of '21, they can get back to normal operations in '22. Just don't lose that ID bracelet / proof of vaccination card / whatever is handed out as proof you're no longer vulnerable.

[twangster]

13 minutes ago, JLMoran said:

Just because they can't sail from the US doesn't mean they can't sail from anywhere. Enough precedent has been set at this point over in Europe that I'm quite confident there will be regular sailings in much of 2021 out of Europe and Asia; just none carrying US residents for a time.

I know the US is a lucrative region for all the cruise companies, but all they have to start doing in the very short term is dramatically slow the fiscal bleeding. Getting regular sailings going again out of EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Asia) should go a long way with that, as they get a good chunk of their ships back to breaking even at worst, and ideally making a small profit per sailing. Then it's just the ones being kept near the US for eventual restart that will be the big money bleeders.

Long as that's enough to keep them going until the end of '21, they can get back to normal operations in '22. Just don't lose that ID bracelet / proof of vaccination card / whatever is handed out as proof you're no longer vulnerable.

The Royal Caribbean Group has over 50 ships.  Even if 10 of them were running at reduced capacity somewhere those ships might break even but the other 40 ships blowing bubbles in the ocean for another year will quickly drain any cash reserves and loans dry.   If your family has a six figure combined income but now both people are working part time in retail it doesn't matter how much is in the bank, you'll quickly run through any cash reserves.  Vaccines are game changers but it they do drag into Q3 for general availability and numbers don't trend downward until 2022 we will likely see some pretty drastic actions taken such as fleets reduced significantly.     

[JLMoran]

14 minutes ago, twangster said:

The Royal Caribbean Group has over 50 ships.  Even if 10 of them were running at reduced capacity somewhere those ships might break even but the other 40 ships blowing bubbles in the ocean for another year will quickly drain any cash reserves and loans dry.

Maybe I'm operating on a bad assumption, but shouldn't they be able to run at least half of them at reduced capacity across the lines in EMEA?

[RBRSKI]

Put on hold an All Inclusive in Ocho Rios today for Spring Break, it's breaking my heart!  And I have NO PROBLEM following these rules!!!!

'Currently all residents of the USA who are 12 years of age or over, are required to obtain and present a negative COVID-19 PCR or Antigen test result to check in for a flight. Test must be made by a certified institution at least 10 days before traveling to Jamaica. For more information on requirements please refer to https://www.visitjamaica.com/travelauthorization/

 

Hey Matt, I have a question about signing into the Blog, Why do I have to click "remember me" in order to sign in?

 

[Matt]

13 hours ago, RBRSKI said:

Hey Matt, I have a question about signing into the Blog, Why do I have to click "remember me" in order to sign in?

You don't need to click that.  Remember me means the site places a cookie in your browser so you don't have to re-sign in later after you close your browser.

[twangster]

19 hours ago, JLMoran said:

Maybe I'm operating on a bad assumption, but shouldn't they be able to run at least half of them at reduced capacity across the lines in EMEA?

Ships that have sailed in Europe during the pandemic on a very limited basis are flagged in Europe. No Royal ship is flagged in an EU member state. 

Here in America it doesn't take long for the PVSA to become well known to cruise ship guests and why itineraries are made the way they are.  However...Europe has cabotage laws as well.  The PVSA and Jones Act represent America's cabotage laws for passengers and cargo but 91% of UN member states and 80% of the world's coastlines are subject to cabotage laws.  

Royal is restricted to operating cruises that conform to cabotage laws everywhere around the world.   

Royal can't home port ships in Greece for example while TUI with EU flagged ships can.  Royal can visit Greece on a cruise but they can't home port ships there.  Because Greece is made up of so many islands they have a lot of passenger traffic volume on ferries that are almost entirely flagged in Greece.  To protect that industry they have very strict cabotage laws but being an EU member state there are some exceptions for EU flagged ships.

That's just one example.  International maritime law is very complex.

So while it's easy to think only the US has cabotage laws (the PVSA) there are laws around the world that impact what cruise lines can do based on the flag they fly (registration).   The result is that Royal can't start operating cruises anywhere it wants to.

Europe is also struggling with the virus and cruising for the most part is being throttled as the pandemic goes up and down.   

Put it all together and there is no magic "just send ships somewhere and the masses will cruise on them".  

[RBRSKI]

On 12/3/2020 at 9:34 AM, Matt said:

You don't need to click that.  Remember me means the site places a cookie in your browser so you don't have to re-sign in later after you close your browser.

The only way I can post is to click it.  

[JLMoran]

27 minutes ago, RBRSKI said:

The only way I can post is to click it.  

Do you have some kind of tracking blocker or other privacy extension installed? Ghostery, 1Blocker, something else? Those will block all tracking cookies and sometimes even the comment libraries used by sites.

If you have one of them installed, try white-listing the site and see if that makes it work any better for actually remembering you / keeping you logged in.