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33 minutes ago, beccaball said:

I'm surprised at the amount of negative nancy's....or Realistic RIchards..... lol

My cruise is March 21, 2021..... I'm fully expecting to be on Oasis.....

 

I'm not one to usually be pessimistic. I've always tried to be an optimist.... but do you all truly think that full fleet won't be operating by spring? I understand not in November and December....but I'm still 6 months from my cruise..... I figured they would have worked out all the kinks by then.

 

But again,.... maybe Im just optimistic???

HONESTLY, not trying to be negative....just trying to be realistic, keep myself grounded, and following the bread crumbs to get some sort of an idea of what could possibly happen. If youre looking at where we are now, when cruising may start, and what they have told us will happen when it does...it leads ME to think theyre going to scrap or alter the existing schedule for a while. Theyve said it will be a slow process, not all ships will sail, and those that do will be on "short" sailings. Who defines what short is? 10 day sailings, I think are definitely out. Is 7 short? not when compared to 3,4, and 5 day sailings. I think that is what they would start with.  I would think, in order to maximize the amount of people cruising, since they are reducing capacity, they will use the larger ships for short (3,4,5 day) sailings involving the private islands....then over time (months) they will begin stretching itineraries and bringing more ships into the fold.  

I suspect, those of us booked on the ships that are sailing, will receive some sort of option when all this shakes out. Something to the effect of "your itinerary has changed, so we would like to offer you the CHOICE to stay on the sailing, or receive FCC".  I dont think theyd want to completely scrap the guest list and rebook all the way.  They already have a head start.  

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One short sailing that could potentially open up is Bermuda, since (with Royal, at least) that's always been a 5-night sailing with just the one port stop. I know they started those 7-night sailings on Empress, but that ship is way too small to make doing that itinerary viable, at least going by the cruise line comments about keeping it to larger / newer / freshly updated ships. Freedom has the route at the moment, and I think she's big enough to make it work in addition to being freshly refurbished / AMPlified. But there are definitely two sizable hurdles to get past:

  • NJ / NY have to agree to reopen ports. Not happening until we're in Stage 4, as I understand it; so far Stage 3 seems to be working OK, so it's possible we'll get to that point by the time the Bermuda season returns in '21
  • Bermuda has to agree to reopen not just to tourists, but specifically to cruise ships.

Since Royal Navy Dockyard can only berth 2 ships on any given day, and access to most places of interest is by the ferries or buses, I'm trying to think of ways they'd make it work. Maybe something like:

  • Limit access to one ship a day
  • Possibly disallow overnight stays; this would decrease the appeal of the trip, not to mention make it harder for the different NY/NJ-based cruise lines to all get a chance to visit (max 3 lines per week)
  • Max the ship size at Freedom class, or maybe even Navigator class (with Adventure put back up here), so ~3,000-4,000 passengers
  • Limit access to places like Horseshoe Beach to X passengers for the day, to keep crowds down and isolate them to a specific section; and only ship-hosted excursions can go there
  • In place of the public ferries, passengers use the ship's tender boats to get to Hamilton and St. George's (no idea if that's feasible, but what else are they going to do when those ferries are needed as actual commuting vessels by the locals?), and again these are cruise-hosted excursions where passengers can't just wander around.
  • No use of the pink buses
  • Dining in towns or at the Dockyard allowed at outdoor seating restaurants only (not exactly an issue there, although that could be slightly challenging for places like The Frog and Onion Pub)
  • Greatly reduced max occupancy at the craft stores, art galleries, etc.

If they do this, and we see that things are well under control in the first quarter of '21, I would strongly consider making a third trip there with my wife in summer or fall. But it would definitely be a last-minute kind of booking; no way am I going to plan on booking a trip there before I see that they've reopened and NJ's port has as well.

 

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26 minutes ago, ehw51 said:

Has anyone heard if Bermuda has come up with any guidelines from their own Ministry of tourism. We would definitely enjoy Bermuda again, but agree would not book till we saw the entire package. 

Bermuda has been open to air travel since July 1, 2020 and their tourism site has a full set of requirements and guidelines for travelers who want to visit the island. (link is to a tourism update press release, which says it's dated today but the content reads like it's the same as what was likely posted initially in July)

So they clearly have guidelines in place that will cover smaller tourist loads. But I haven't been able to find anything related to cruise-based tourist traffic.

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7 hours ago, beccaball said:

I'm surprised at the amount of negative nancy's....or Realistic RIchards..... lol

My cruise is March 21, 2021..... I'm fully expecting to be on Oasis.....

 

I'm not one to usually be pessimistic. I've always tried to be an optimist.... but do you all truly think that full fleet won't be operating by spring? I understand not in November and December....but I'm still 6 months from my cruise..... I figured they would have worked out all the kinks by then.

 

But again,.... maybe Im just optimistic???

I admire your optimism, however, it’s still entirely possible that your March cruise will be axed along with all of 2021. Consider if cruising starts back up (best case now with crew mobilization could be 12/1) and despite all the COVID19 mitigation’s in place someone (either crew or guest) spreads the virus on a sailing...... At that point I believe the proverbial fat lady will be singing goodbye 2021. 

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1 hour ago, tonyfsu21 said:

I admire your optimism, however, it’s still entirely possible that your March cruise will be axed along with all of 2021. Consider if cruising starts back up (best case now with crew mobilization could be 12/1) and despite all the COVID19 mitigation’s in place someone (either crew or guest) spreads the virus on a sailing...... At that point I believe the proverbial fat lady will be singing goodbye 2021. 

I would agree with what everyone else here has been saying about the mitigations -- the point is not to get to absolutely zero spread; the point is to minimize spread as much as humanly possible. So if a passenger or crew member contracts the virus and spreads it to one or even a handful out of 2,000 passengers (very rough guess, and based on a Navigator- or Freedom-class ship at ~50% capacity), with confirmation of no further spread to the remaining passengers 2 weeks after debarkation, then that should still be considered a success and the fat lady should not be singing (unless it's the finale song of triumph over adversity).

The only point at which the fat lady should be singing a finale of lamentation and rage is if that passenger or crew member ends up infecting over 5% of the ship (my arbitrary number, which in my scenario would mean over 100 passengers). That would be a horribly damning sign of failure in my book, because the ship was worse than current US guidelines for determining re-openings and overall safe levels.

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Damn... now i am starting to feel bummed.  I have been booking things in the planner and researching things for my trip in May 2021 , i really didnt think that this date would be in question... have already changed the booking 3 times 😞  I guess I will keep my plans as they are... and if they cancel us, i will have a plan B for 4th quarter 2021 or early 2022 in mind ...and just roll with whatever happens...

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