CDC Conditional Sailing Order

[cruisellama]

This was an incredibly vibrant (and I think interesting)  industry - I'm incredulous on how its being gutted.

[Lovetocruise2002]

11 minutes ago, mattymay said:

Control the virus, then the CDC has no say.

 

^^^This!^^^ 

[bretts173]

1 hour ago, mattymay said:

Control the virus, then the CDC has no say.

 

Yes, and to me it seems the number one inhibitor to controlling the virus is freedom of movement. Lockdowns work in controlling the virus but cripple the economy at the same time. Plus the greater opposition to the lockdowns result in a lockdown that lasts longer and is less effective.

Who knows where the balance needs to be.

[BarbieBell]

This morning I see on RCI page that cruises are now suspended through December 31, 2020. After reading the CDC protocol I suppose it will take a while to satisfy those requirements. Twangster, I appreciate you’re solid updates and insight into the world of cruising and let’s all hope 2021 is a good and safe year for cruising. 

[twangster]

49 minutes ago, BarbieBell said:

This morning I see on RCI page that cruises are now suspended through December 31, 2020. After reading the CDC protocol I suppose it will take a while to satisfy those requirements. Twangster, I appreciate you’re solid updates and insight into the world of cruising and let’s all hope 2021 is a good and safe year for cruising. 

Indeed and more cruises in early 2021 may cancel simply because the restart will begin with a very limited number of ships.  For guests not booked on one of them, they may find their cruise is cancelled. 

Twenty six ships in the fleet, one or two will begin to sail at some point "sooner".   That leaves twenty four ships not sailing until some later time after that.  So there will be more cancellations coming.  

This will be a process but we will get through it.  

[cruisellama]

4 hours ago, twangster said:

Indeed and more cruises in early 2021 may cancel simply because the restart will begin with a very limited number of ships.  For guests not booked on one of them, they may find their cruise is cancelled. 

Twenty six ships in the fleet, one or two will begin to sail at some point "sooner".   That leaves twenty four ships not sailing until some later time after that.  So there will be more cancellations coming.  

This will be a process but we will get through it.  

Right on..   Q4 is another write-off, they wouldn't sufficiently move the needle in Dec, might as well use the time to prepare for a safe,  but limited restart.

 

[twangster]

I was just looking at Grandeur cruises remaining on the website.  Only one, Jan. 2, 2021 is 7 nights or shorter which is a condition of the CDC's CSO.  She has nothing on the calendar beyond March and nothing else currently available for Grandeur satisfies the CSO.  I can't see Royal making Grandeur an initial start up ship.  

This ship may have sailed her last Royal cruise.  The CSO may be the end of her unless Royal comes up with a new plan for her.

[mattymay]

Trying not to be negative.. I want to get back to the US as much as anyone, but with a 100,000 new daily cases, how is the CDC going to justify letting these ships sail? Correct me if I am wrong, but it’s worse than when the original no sail order was put in place? And if they do allow real passengers, well this framework could have been put in place from the beginning.

[twangster]

1 hour ago, mattymay said:

Trying not to be negative.. I want to get back to the US as much as anyone, but with a 100,000 new daily cases, how is the CDC going to let these ships sail? Correct me if I am wrong, but it’s worse than when the original no sail order was put in place?

They won't.  That's the point of the CSO.  

The milestones have yet to be detailed to the point that any cruise line can determine what they actually need to do.  That will take 30 - 60 days.  Then cruise lines can continue to progress towards the first step of many in the CDC qualification process.  That will be in 60 - 90 day window.  Then the CDC will be under a new administration that will support them.  

The CDC will drag its feet and allow ships to advance toward CSO certification at a snail's pace.   It will just so happen that the CDC will allow cruise ships to sail once the pandemic numbers are down - at some future time.   2021?  Perhaps.  2022?  2025? 2030?  Only time will tell when the CDC will let cruise ships sail.   

[JLMoran]

32 minutes ago, twangster said:

They won't.  That's the point of the CSO.  

The milestones have yet to be detailed to the point that any cruise line can determine what they actually need to do.  That will take 30 - 60 days.  Then cruise lines can continue to progress towards the first step of many in the CDC qualification process.  That will be in 60 - 90 day windows.  Then the CDC will be under a new administration that will support them.  

The CDC will drags its feet and allow ships to advance toward CSO certification at a snail's pace.   It will just so happen that the CDC will allow cruise ships to sail once the pandemic numbers are down - at some future time.   2021?  Perhaps.  2022?  2025? 2030?  Only time will tell when the CDC will let cruise ships sail.   

Thank goodness the CDC doesn't have any control over cruise ship operations in any place outside the US. Hopefully by late 2021 / early 2022 there will be a widely available and effective vaccine, and US citizens will be allowed to travel to Europe, Asia, Australia / New Zealand, or countries for cruises and vacations as long as they have proof of vaccination.

[steverk]

On 11/2/2020 at 12:35 PM, twangster said:

I think the CDC is buying time hoping for a new administration that will accept their findings without interference.  

 

Looking at the election results, it appears that CDC will have a different administration.

I could see the new administration flexing their muscles and locking down everything they can. 

On the other hand, I could see the tone of COVID reporting in the American media taking a radically different tone (i.e. "look how far we've come.  Deaths and cases are down by X number of cases).  If this happens, the new administration may open things up even though nothing has fundamentally changed, but people will feel better about it.

We shall see how this plays out.

Always remember the ancient Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times!"

[cruisellama]

22 hours ago, twangster said:

They won't.  That's the point of the CSO.  

The milestones have yet to be detailed to the point that any cruise line can determine what they actually need to do.  That will take 30 - 60 days.  Then cruise lines can continue to progress towards the first step of many in the CDC qualification process.  That will be in 60 - 90 day window.  Then the CDC will be under a new administration that will support them.  

The CDC will drag its feet and allow ships to advance toward CSO certification at a snail's pace.   It will just so happen that the CDC will allow cruise ships to sail once the pandemic numbers are down - at some future time.   2021?  Perhaps.  2022?  2025? 2030?  Only time will tell when the CDC will let cruise ships sail.   

Will there be an industry beyond 2021 if no sailing?  Maybe non-US operations can keep things afloat, but a lot of US port cities who support the industry would feel the sting.

[twangster]

12 minutes ago, cruisellama said:

Will there be an industry beyond 2021 if no sailing?  Maybe non-US operations can keep things afloat, but a lot of US port cities who support the industry would feel the sting.

Yes there will be a cruise industry after the pandemic in my opinion.  I don't see the entire industry disappearing.  The pandemic has caused massive disruptions to many lives, economies and industries around the world.  Like there have been airlines that have disappeared we have seen some cruise lines disappear.  The impact to the cruise industry may not be over yet.  Only time will tell but the sting isn't over, the virus didn't disappear on Nov. 4th as some projected it would.  

[MuttMutt]

Well a little bit of good information.  Looks like some conditional provisions have been met.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/crew-disembarkations-commercial-travel.html

 

Currently Grandeur of the Seas is the only ship marked as "Red"

Personally I see the timeline for stuff to be something to the effect of having all the facilities and such onboard and in order by the end of December, then being allowed to do some "test" sailings in early to mid January.  Not sure from what I have read but I am thinking the CDC will require each ship to go through a test and do simulations where all crew have the ability to deal with the simulation directly and not just observe.  Then the 60 day window starts which would kill everything till at least mid March if not further with the new administration in the drivers seat.  

 

Then again with the new admin in place I can see attempts at forcing nationwide shelter orders in place.  IMHO that will cause a major revolt and some things could change even more drastically after that.

[twangster]

19 hours ago, MuttMutt said:

Well a little bit of good information.  Looks like some conditional provisions have been met.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/crew-disembarkations-commercial-travel.html

 

I think this requirement has been established for many months.  It has been the mechanism that allows crew to be coming and going through the U.S. over the past several months.  You may recall a big flap in the spring when some cruise line CEO's didn't immediately sign the acknowledgement that held them responsible for any misstep.

While it's relevant in the sense that they can't move crew without the signed acknowledgments, this marking of ship green or red pre-dates the CSO.  

[mworkman]

On 11/2/2020 at 1:35 PM, twangster said:

I think the CDC is buying time hoping for a new administration that will accept their findings without interference.  

It doesn't look good with the new administrations plan.

Biden's plan says it will be used as more of a "dial" approach that will determine the risk of spread using evidence-based guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Biden on Monday is slated to announce his coronavirus task force, which will be headed by Vivek Murthy, the former U.S. surgeon general, and David Kessler, the former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration.

In addition, another member of the task force expected to play a key role will be Dr. Zeke Emanuel, an adviser to Biden and the architect of the Affordable Care Act. Emanuel told MarketWatch in an interview that it could be as late as November 2021 before the United States will be able to get out of the pandemic.

[princevaliantus]

5 minutes ago, mworkman said:

It doesn't look good with the new administrations plan.

Biden's plan says it will be used as more of a "dial" approach that will determine the risk of spread using evidence-based guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Biden on Monday is slated to announce his coronavirus task force, which will be headed by Vivek Murthy, the former U.S. surgeon general, and David Kessler, the former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration.

In addition, another member of the task force expected to play a key role will be Dr. Zeke Emanuel, an adviser to Biden and the architect of the Affordable Care Act. Emanuel told MarketWatch in an interview that it could be as late as November 2021 before the United States will be able to get out of the pandemic.

Doesn't mean we can't sail safely with protocols in place.

[mworkman]

19 minutes ago, princevaliantus said:

Doesn't mean we can't sail safely with protocols in place.

Don't expect those protocols to remain in place, there only there because the current administration limited the CDC's authority at this time.

[twangster]

9 hours ago, princevaliantus said:

Doesn't mean we can't sail safely with protocols in place.

Doubt the new protocols were scientifically based on the numbers in play today.  

In the good news column, actual reports of a real vaccine look promising.

[mattymay]

Vaccine is the only way out now for the mighty USA! 

[MuttMutt]

Well technically there are two ways to inoculate with a virus.  One is exposure and the other is through a vaccine.  For thousands of years it was all done with exposure.  But I do hope that an effective vaccine is released and readily available.  The readily available is the part I think is going to surprise most people as it will be going to lawmakers and people in places of power along with healthcare workers and first responders before the rest of us.

[twangster]

2 hours ago, MuttMutt said:

One is exposure and the other is through a vaccine. 

Yes but it's unknown if exposure provides immunity of if immunity is short lived.  There are reports of individuals having been infected twice months apart.

[MuttMutt]

True but it could be similar to other viruses where it may take a couple exposures to stick. From my perusing information all of the vaccines require multiple doses to be effective. After that point it should be at the very least a short mild illness or complete prevention. 

[mattymay]

Roughly 250,000 deaths from 10 million cases. So you are looking at 8+ million deaths by the time it's swept through the entire population.

A few days ago it was 100,000 new cases, now it's 200,000. What will the number be by the time the new administration takes over? That man sounds like he's going to shut things down, so the higher this goes the harder it's going to be for the cruise lines. Can't see a way out other than vaccine. 

[twangster]

16 minutes ago, mattymay said:

Roughly 250,000 deaths from 10 million cases. So you are looking at 8+ million deaths by the time it's swept through the entire population.

A few days ago it was 100,000 new cases, now it's 200,000. What will the number be by the time the new administration takes over? That man sounds like he's going to shut things down, so the higher this goes the harder it's going to be for the cruise lines. Can't see a way out other than vaccine. 

Some assumptions in that extrapolation but I don't disagree a vaccine has the potential to be a game changer.  

[mattymay]

9 minutes ago, twangster said:

Some assumptions in that extrapolation but I don't disagree a vaccine has the potential to be a game changer.  

What? 100% based on science and facts! 

[mattymay]

https://cruiseradio.net/carnival-axes-longer-cruises-through-october-2021/

A sign of things to come for Royal Caribbean as well?

[twangster]

38 minutes ago, mattymay said:

https://cruiseradio.net/carnival-axes-longer-cruises-through-october-2021/

A sign of things to come for Royal Caribbean as well?

Possibly.  The CSO sort of suggests they can't sail or "offer" longer cruises.   It makes me wonder if Carnival interpreted that to mean advertising a cruise for booking over 7 days is a violation.

[TXcruzer]

12 hours ago, MuttMutt said:

True but it could be similar to other viruses where it may take a couple exposures to stick. From my perusing information all of the vaccines require multiple doses to be effective. After that point it should be at the very least a short mild illness or complete prevention. 

The Johnson and Johnson vaccine will be single shot 

[mworkman]

Rumor has it that the CDC is working hard on establishing No Sail Order again! Effectively immediately, using the numbers published by the media currently today, lasting for 6 more months.  Only time will tell..does published Pharma vaccine hold off that order..who knows?

 

 

[twangster]

1 hour ago, mworkman said:

Rumor has it that the CDC is working hard on establishing No Sail Order again! Effectively immediately, using the numbers published by the media currently today, lasting for 6 more months.  Only time will tell..does published Pharma vaccine hold off that order..who knows?

SilverSea cancelled all sailings worldwide until March a couple days ago. 

Winter is coming and the dead aren't wearing masks.

(Game of Thrones reference)   

[cruisellama]

It's setting up to be a grim outlook for sailing in 2021.  Hmm start cancelling and getting refunds, or just keep moving FCC forward??   Getting wary about having too much $$ exposure without a path to start sailing.

[cruisellama]

On 11/11/2020 at 1:49 AM, mattymay said:

https://cruiseradio.net/carnival-axes-longer-cruises-through-october-2021/

A sign of things to come for Royal Caribbean as well?

Heard that little gem of a story earlier - they're not going to be the only ones.  

[Mike.s]

1 hour ago, cruisellama said:

It's setting up to be a grim outlook for sailing in 2021.  Hmm start cancelling and getting refunds, or just keep moving FCC forward??   Getting wary about having too much $$ exposure without a path to start sailing.

So it's not just me who is thinking along those lines. Not sure what protection we have should our FCC suddenly become worthless

[twangster]

I've cancelled all of my refundable cruises and requested refunds.  I have too many FCC now and with Royal cancelling another Star Class cruise on me that had FCC in play the early indication is they won't re-issue the FCC.  They already did this to me once but my TA was able to escalate it as a "one time" exception.  

My advice is ask for refunds.  FCC is fools gold.  They can and will cancel your FCC if your cruise cancels.  Poof, it's gone, just like that.  

Avoid FCC at all cost.  Don't be tempted by the 125% FCC carrot they may dangle in front of you.  Carrots are great for donkeys, don't let them make you into an *ss.  

[Ray]

On Friday, a letter signed by Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Rep. Doris Matsui (D-CA) called on the CDC to reinstate its no-sail order for cruise ships and reverse efforts to restart the industry's US operations.

The letter cites the outbreak aboard SeaDream 1.

[twangster]

19 minutes ago, Ray said:

On Friday, a letter signed by Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Rep. Doris Matsui (D-CA) called on the CDC to reinstate its no-sail order for cruise ships and reverse efforts to restart the industry's US operations.

The letter cites the outbreak aboard SeaDream 1.

As much as I hate to say it cruises should not sail until the numbers are way down.  

The CDC is right to stop ships from sailing with the numbers skyrocketing out of control.  

A cruise ship ban through the end of May wouldn't be unreasonable and avoids the cruises line forcing people to make final payments only to cancel cruises a few weeks later while keeping their money for another 3 months.

This is an ugly situation we have put ourselves into but it's time to face the reality of the situation.   

[USFFrank]

3 hours ago, twangster said:

As much as I hate to say it cruises should not sail until the numbers are way down.  

The CDC is right to stop ships from sailing with the numbers skyrocketing out of control.  

A cruise ship ban through the end of May wouldn't be unreasonable and avoids the cruises line forcing people to make final payments only to cancel cruises a few weeks later while keeping their money for another 3 months.

This is an ugly situation we have put ourselves into but it's time to face the reality of the situation.   

 Tell that to the 20,000+ who want to go on a test cruise. As much as I don't want to say it, this is purely political. Wouldn't surprise me if these 2 were never even near a cruise ship.

 https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2020/11/13/us-senators-ask-cdc-bring-back-the-no-sail-order-cruise-ship-ban

[gi333]

They should just give refunds. I am canceling my March 2021 cruise. I am forced to take a fcc that I will probably never use by expiry date. That is theft. 

[mattymay]

If cruising is not going to start for awhile in the US, couldn't they send an Oasis or two to some other region's that are doing better with the virus? Asia for example. At least get some money flowing through the door, and some possible good news stories.