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Just my opinion..

Cruise stocks are taking a beating and with no good news, they are being downgraded, rated down, targets set lower etc.
I believed all along that if there is no light at the end of the tunnel by fall, then cruise companies will reach a point of 'concern', or significant decision point.
We have covid numbers spiking in the south, FL may start to see the same highs as NY. The CDC is silent and I can't imagine they are going to allow anything with these covid numbers.

And further cancellations past September and the new provisional date would be?  January? 

I love cruising, I just can't see any good news coming any time soon..    Will Europe open up for Europeans?  Will Aus/NZ open up for locals?  Middle East cruises?

Someone cheer me up and give me some good news or belief that cruising will start in Oct!

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If Florida would have followed New York's example, they would not be in the predicament they are in now. New York was the highest and now is the lowest state in numbers as WE New Yorker's listened and were directed by a great Governor who got us through the rough time. The Governor in New York wants the ports open again but that is not his call.

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18 minutes ago, princevaliantus said:

Well, Florida will be paying the piper soon enough. That uptick is troubling but what's even worse is the economic impact to businesses, families and the cruising industry as the ports of Florida won't open up if those numbers don't start going down.

Agreed, I wish the number didn't trend the way it has over the last couple days!  Bad for our ports!  

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Even though Florida is spiking, it’s the 20-30 age group seeing the most cases. ICU Hospitalizations in my area (Jacksonville) are at a whooping 14. Roughly 35% of cases are asymptomatic. Big spikes in agricultural areas. 
 

The media wants you to believe the narrative that we are all hooked up to ventilators and dying in Florida. That is simply not the case. You have to dig into the numbers to see what’s going on. Our deaths continue to decline. 

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46 minutes ago, Jill said:

Even though Florida is spiking, it’s the 20-30 age group seeing the most cases.

Our deaths continue to decline.

Be that as it may, spiking case numbers in any age group indicates that spread is occuring.  Fatal or not will take much longer to determine.  Hopefully it remains to be non-fatal spread.  

The reporting of deaths is impacting the way data is shaped.  It many cases they aren't tallied on weekends which skews Monday numbers higher week after week.  Being that its Wednesday as I write this the Tuesday numbers haven't posted yet but the Sunday no reporting effect can be seen week after week followed by the weekly Monday spikes.  All those troughs are Sundays, the following spikes are Mondays.

850984171_FloridaCVJune242020.jpeg.bf1b74c4b07a43086c22beff8ffb82df.jpeg

All we can really glean from this data is that it's too early to declare anything.  We can't declare the numbers are falling, we can't declare they are raising either.  In two or three weeks time we'll know better what the impact of events that took place a month or more earlier were.  

If we've reached the point where our at risk have already died off the numbers will display that in the long run.   Then we can more fully reopen and infected individuals just have to deal with a nasty virus with flu like impacts times ten, but non-fatal.  Then cruising can commence, once the numbers show that our most weak or at risk are already gone.  This is basically what our approach has become.  Right or wrong will be for the history books to decide.

What's not clear is where can we cruise when we reach the point that cruising resumes?  If nations in the Caribbean haven't seen their at risk already die off then maybe they won't want ships full of spreaders coming to their country.  It might be less fatal for us at that point, but fatal spread for them.

No one can predict where we'll be in October based on our current methodology.  We'll know in December how we looked in October.

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6 minutes ago, Scrumps said:

It's a cascade effect though. Those under 30's who may be asymptomatic in their thousands and not filling hospital beds, but they likely will pass onto others who will end up in a bed. That is what happened in NY. The death rate increased later on and kept increasing as the new case numbers went down. 

Exactly.  The spread we see in the form of cases today will drive death rates that are observed weeks later. 

Only time will tell if spread today equates to more deaths in the weeks that are coming.  Hindsight will remain to be 20-20.    

The answer will be known a month from now. 

Spread among younger people observed mid-June led to:

  • No change in the death rate
  • An increase in the death rate
  • A decrease in the death rate

We'll be able to make the correct statement a month from now.

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2 hours ago, Jill said:

 

The media wants you to believe the narrative that we are all hooked up to ventilators and dying in Florida. That is simply not the case. You have to dig into the numbers to see what’s going on. Our deaths continue to decline. 

What media is this? I watch mainstream media (among others) and I was also under the impression that the numbers were high but the death numbers were low.

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I think people seem to be confusing Fox/MSN news with all mainstream media. My local CBS, NBC, ABC, and WGN news always says infection rates, not deaths. I think the deaths are bad but the infection numbers are worse and that's what we should be focusing on. A case that requires hospitalization isn't really a case that the general public should be worried about. Asymptomatic cases means people out and about spreading the virus....which can and will affect each person who contacts it differently.

A rise in infections now means that possibly come Oct, there might be some herd immunity. Also look at how people are reacting to the virus now: a huge chunk think its nothing more than a hoax, another chunk says it is nothing but the flu, and another chunk is heading precautions. I see no reason why the CDC will extend the ban, even if a second wave occurs. The CDC has nothing to say because the ban is not over and the cruise lines aren't in motion.

I don't get all the doom and gloom now, there was never anything to say the ban would be lifted early. I think the CLIA decided since the ban ended closer to August and the lines needed time to do thing properly, they would give themselves extra time. It doesn't mean the cruise season is over this year, to me it means they understand that with a social virus like this, things cannot be rushed.

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The COVID-19 death rate is absolute.  Accuracy only varies based on accurate reporting.

The COVID-19 case rate is relative.  Accuracy is unknown.

Areas that do more testing will yield better accuracy in their results but even so overall testing rates are low so the results are not truly indicative of anything.  Until very recently testing was effectively limited to people who were suspected of being infected.

If you ask the police how many people fail a breathalyzer test at a DUI checkpoint the "positive" rate as a percentage of number tested is pretty high.  That's because they don't test people who they don't suspect might yield a positive test. 

Without testing large numbers of people on a random basis we really have no idea how pervasive or prevalent the virus really is.  They can only guess based on low sample counts.  Low sample counts means low accuracy.

Death is irrefutable.  Absent of large scale testing availability with a sound plan to execute that testing the rate of death is a better indication of the progression of the virus.

If people aren't dying it wouldn't matter, it would be like a common cold but with stronger symptoms.  Until the death rate drops to pre-CV19 numbers it's hard to see the CDC changing course.  It's hard to see another country open its borders if more cases will yield more death.  

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Airports are starting to bring in instant testing that you can pay for to avoid 2 week quarantine. I think this is going to be the only way cruising restarts any time soon. The logistics of it and the reliability of the tests need work though.  I said 2 months ago I believed that is where all the cruise companies should be jointly putting their money right now.

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@Scrumps I always assumed that any cruises this year would have instant testing involved....that and mask. Also lets be real there is no restarting anytime before the 16th of September for RCCI and Oct 1st-ish for the other lines. By the time this comes around the test should have a higher than 85% reliability score.

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8 hours ago, Jill said:

Even though Florida is spiking, it’s the 20-30 age group seeing the most cases. ICU Hospitalizations in my area (Jacksonville) are at a whooping 14. Roughly 35% of cases are asymptomatic. Big spikes in agricultural areas. 
 

The media wants you to believe the narrative that we are all hooked up to ventilators and dying in Florida. That is simply not the case. You have to dig into the numbers to see what’s going on. Our deaths continue to decline. 

Great post...^

Here's my opinion laced rant....

Everyone freaks out when the news reports infections, but never talk about the net effect in the same articles. The numbers I pulled this morning show the percentage of cases and deaths to population...I gather that there is more testing in the US than anywhere else....based on reports I've read (buried deep in main stream media, and easier to find with independent media)....numbers of cases are reported as being inflated for financial reasons such as if someone dies of a heart attack or accident and is infected, the death is attributed to COVID (who knows how accurate that it -- no one is trusting the experts anymore because of goal post moving, changing the story, and what appears to be outright guessing...everyone has seen the reports about nursing homes in certain states that are putting restrictions on people from Florida. They are focusing on cases and not mortality. Big difference.

The second shows the European CDCs trend line for deaths. I wish it showed per capita...but, I suspect far, far more people have been infected and were never tested. There was the viral video of the two California doctors who postulated that 70-80 million people could have had it based on what they were seeing in their clinic as opposed to the medical statisticians who always get quoted with scare numbers and ended up being wrong with their mitigation numbers by several times. I think they  were talking about 500,000 deaths in the beginning...and the numbers that are getting reported are a fraction of it.

not to minimize anyone's direct negative experiences with this, but the numbers don't justify the response, in my opinion.

How many people remember the beginning when people were saying they feared the response more than the disease? I certainly did. That seems to be bearing fruit. Call me whatever you like, but something is going on with how power in the US is exerted on the people and on companies such as Royal. Something needs to happen.

Sorry, like everyone else, I am fed up with this...we have done our part, and no one is listening except the choir.

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Early on the explosion of cases in New England dominated the charts for the country.  The New England region accounted for the bulk of the peak observed in March and April and that set the scale for all charts.  With the scale set to accommodate New England the rest of the country becomes background noise in the graphs early on. 

Since that time the New England region has largely got the situation under better control and they have trended downward.  Given that this region defined the scale of the charts for the nation, the decline makes it look like all of the US has the situation under control at least in terms of deaths.

I've drawn red lines on these charts to split them roughly in half.  The first two months on the left, the next two months on the right.

The death rate nationwide:

1219388622_DeathsUS.jpeg.805b1c17778797e06df36e90376174f2.jpeg

Clearly we are losing less people now compared to earlier on.  That's the good news.  But...

Looking at new cases on a daily basis nationwide:

1990778144_newcasesusjune242020.jpeg.1d1d15867318ee13c5cb611cd28f2d76.jpeg

The results are different than the death chart, new cases are not trending down like deaths are.  Why?

Looking at New York and New Jersey they alone accounted for a significant number of the news cases to the left of the red line. When you add the surrounding New England states they are the lion share of the numbers left of the red line. 

Looking at New York and New Jersey:

1422422101_NewcasesNY.jpeg.4ae0d2bfcd3ebb52433b6bab6f0e5514.jpeg

1423012027_NewcasesNJ.jpeg.1822dc10d8a6cc92f25721e40da7821b.jpeg

The most populated states in America are California, Texas and Florida followed by New York.  Looking at these other states in the early days over the first two months we see their new case counts were very low left of the red line.

1765890443_NewcasesCA.jpeg.c43ef73d465b802d3fb0514645db932a.jpeg

1705750765_newcasesTX.jpeg.8cdac440a13081ec2db449dc3d40d29e.jpeg

1389773543_NewcasesFL.jpeg.3cef34d38c870b514eaa48b9626940b4.jpeg

To the left of the red line these states each were accounting for 10% of what was occuring in New York alone but they all have larger populations than New York.  You can see why they thought it was safe to open based on the scale set by the extreme numbers in New England.

Looking to the right of the red line you see where the measures taken in New England allowed them to get the virus under better control. The number of new cases in New England to the right of the red line is 1/2 to 1/3 of what it was to the left of the red line earlier on.  

Looking at the other most populous states the reverse is true.  These states are now seeing double to triple the new cases to the right of the red line compared to what they experienced left of the red line.

It has been said that more testing will result in more cases detected.  New York state has some of the highest testing rates in the country.  The number of tests done in New York far exceeds what other states have accomplished.  If more testing is supposed to result in more cases, why has New York significantly reduced new cases over time while testing at a higher rate over the same time period?

Looking again at the new cases on a country wide basis:

1185091655_newcasesusjune242020.jpeg.063c3fd8b8ef34c2afc2a24e2001a1e0.jpeg

While New England was responsible for the bulk of what we saw early on left of the red line, other states are now responsible for the results we see to the right of the red line.  New England has become background noise in the data.  This illustrates why you have to be careful looking at nationwide results and applying them to individual regions or states.

Looking at the time since Memorial Day we know that case detection lags 7 to 14 days.  As many states moved to open over Memorial Day we are just now beginning to see the effects.  While it is too early to draw conclusions, it has the appearance that new cases in the US are trending upward since Memorial Day but looking at New England this trend isn't coming from that area.

What concerns me is that deaths lag behind case detection.  infected will take a week or more to reach the point they feel symptoms and more time before they need a ventilator and they often spend weeks on ventilators before they succumb.  With new cases appearing to trend upward since Memorial Day it's hard to imagine that deaths will not follow in the coming weeks or months.  

The virus hasn't been defeated.  It has not been cured.  There is no vaccine today.  Everyone who is at risk hasn't been eliminated yet.  It's illogical to conclude that increasing new cases today won't result in increased deaths in the coming weeks.  Only time will tell.

The problem for the cruise industry is that they tend to home port ships in populated states.  Florida and Texas have the highest number of embarkations.  New Jersey, New York and California follow closely if not for Royal Caribbean they are significant states for other cruise line embarkations.  

The three most populous states and the most cruise embarking states are trending upward in new cases right now.  These states are not flattening the curve.  Far from it we've yet to see where or when these states will peak.   If deaths follow new cases as they always have I suspect they are far from ready to think about starting cruising for a very long time.  

The declines observed in New England occurred over a two month span after the peak.  We don't know where these other states are on their climb towards their peak.  Are they a month away from the peak or two months away from the peak?  We don't know yet.  However if the overall process takes four months to settle down the numbers like it did in New England then we are looking at October before these states are where New York is today and New York is nowhere close to declaring it's time to allow ships to sail.   

The death chart above loosely follows New England new cases.  With New England in better control they are effectively out of play right now.  Where the national charts go from here will now be driven by the results of other states as they would have all along if New England didn't experience the initial surge that it did.

It's going to be a long road ahead.  As tired of all this as we may be, we've only started on the journey.  

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I never pay attention to the infection rate as it is influenced by how much testing has been done.  I only look at the  hospitalization and death rate. When hospitals start to lean toward being overwhelmed, it's a problem.  If 100% of the population was infected but nobody ended up in the hospital, well, who cares?   But the states who refused to take this seriously are experiencing overwhelmed hospitals.  Those who did/are simply aren't.  The "media" that I pay attention to are the doctors and nurses who are friends of mine who live around the country and who are dealing with this stuff.

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21 hours ago, Jill said:

Even though Florida is spiking, it’s the 20-30 age group seeing the most cases. ICU Hospitalizations in my area (Jacksonville) are at a whooping 14. Roughly 35% of cases are asymptomatic. Big spikes in agricultural areas. 
 

The media wants you to believe the narrative that we are all hooked up to ventilators and dying in Florida. That is simply not the case. You have to dig into the numbers to see what’s going on. Our deaths continue to decline. 

Sometimes it's a loosing battle on some of these topics!  The sky is falling for some of these people!   We ALL base our thoughts on what we read, listen and see.  To be fair, we all have a right to see the positive and negative things in life,  no matter where we get the info!   LOL

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Worrying about being infected with covid is like worrying about being struck by lighting. People say what are the odds of dying? So nothing to worry about. Unless you end up being the unlucky one to die. But that's life, so let's all get back and cruise. What have we got to lose? What could happen on a floating petri dish? Ya the ship might put you off in a foreign port, if you are sick. They would rather abandon you, than being denied entry into a port and the  ship being quarantined.  Don't want any bad PR. But hey, it will only add more fun to your vacation. 

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16 minutes ago, Let's cruise! Diamond Plus said:

Worrying about being infected with covid is like worrying about being struck by lighting. People say what are the odds of dying? So nothing to worry about. Unless you end up being the unlucky one to die. But that's life, so let's all get back and cruise. What have we got to lose? What could happen on a floating petri dish? Ya the ship might put you off in a foreign port, if you are sick. They would rather abandon you, than being denied entry into a port and the  ship being quarantined.  Don't want any bad PR. But hey, it will only add more fun to your vacation. 

I'd rather die from covid, than be hit with the hospital bills we see in America...

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18 minutes ago, CruisinForABruisin said:

I'd rather die from covid, than be hit with the hospital bills we see in America...

The living will still get hit with the bill.  The dead won't pay their bills so the living will end up picking it up in the form of higher rates.  Next taxes will increase.  States gotta make up their budget shortfalls and the feds gotta cover those trillions spent.  COVID-19 - the gift that keeps on giving year after year.

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On 6/24/2020 at 11:03 AM, princevaliantus said:

If Florida would have followed New York's example, they would not be in the predicament they are in now. New York was the highest and now is the lowest state in numbers as WE New Yorker's listened and were directed by a great Governor who got us through the rough time. The Governor in New York wants the ports open again but that is not his call.

No words.  I don't want to get in trouble on the site, so I will try to temper this, but WE folks in Florida don't need the folks in New York to give us a lecture on what we should have done.  I have been in my house 98% of the time since March, with numbers no where near what NY experienced.  You may recall when things got bad in NY there were tons of flights of people leaving NY and coming here.  You can have your Governor too.

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2 minutes ago, gatorskin76 said:

No words.  I don't want to get in trouble on the site, so I will try to temper this, but WE folks in Florida don't need the folks in New York to give us a lecture on what we should have done.  I have been in my house 98% of the time since March, with numbers no where near what NY experienced.  You may recall when things got bad in NY there were tons of flights of people leaving NY and coming here.  You can have your Governor too.

Definitely not having a battle with someone who is truly unarmed!!

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