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F1guynz

Message from Head of Carnival Australia but Applicable to all Cruise Lines

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I have attached a link to an update from Carnival Australia regarding the state of the industry in Australia and the demonising of the cruise business there.

i think it is just as applicable to RCI as the world goes into panic mode and seeks to find someone to blame. Earlier this week P&O Explorer whose home port is Sydney was ordered out of harbour even without any cases of Covid-19 ever being reported on the ship.

i don’t see the cruise season down under restarting until at least the end of 2021.

I think RCI will postpone their plans for Lelepa until a future date.

i also think they will delay the construction of Icon class ships because in the present climate, they will have too many ships for the number of destinations they will be able to serve.

I hope we can get back to some sense of normality in the near future as I just want to go for a cruise.
 

 


Pacific Explorer expelled from its home port.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/carnival-cruises-boss-slams-decision-to-force-pacific-explorer-ship-off-shores/news-story/c432abd92c774a03db15490128be5253

 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, F1guynz said:

I have attached a link to an update from Carnival Australia regarding the state of the industry in Australia and the demonising of the cruise business there.

i think it is just as applicable to RCI as the world goes into panic mode and seeks to find someone to blame. Earlier this week P&O Explorer whose home port is Sydney was ordered out of harbour even without any cases of Covid-19 ever being reported on the ship.

i don’t see the cruise season down under restarting until at least the end of 2021.

I think RCI will postpone their plans for Lelepa until a future date.

i also think they will delay the construction of Icon class ships because in the present climate, they will have too many ships for the number of destinations they will be able to serve.

I hope we can get back to some sense of normality in the near future as I just want to go for a cruise.
 

 


Pacific Explorer expelled from its home port.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/carnival-cruises-boss-slams-decision-to-force-pacific-explorer-ship-off-shores/news-story/c432abd92c774a03db15490128be5253

 

 

 

The end of 2021???? That's 20 months, approximately. I think that is most definitely an exaggeration.  Australia has been in the cruising business for years and like the rest of us are dedicated to continue cruising and they will be up and running much sooner.

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New Zealand is expecting to have border restriction for the next 12-18 months which will prevent ships from coming here. Australia and New Zealand usually have similar policies so I suspect this will limit the viability of cruising.

the South Pacific will not allow cruises for the foreseeable future so I don’t think it would be no cruises at the end of this year. The season only goes through to April so I don’t think there will be shorted season.

there is also a lot of animosity towards the cruise industry at the moment due to the Ruby Princess causing the indirect infection of over 600 people.

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Cruising will surely be back in at least some capacity before the end of 2021. Barring some unforeseen issue.

I do think it will take years to get back to levels of prosperity they enjoyed before the virus. Something I have learned though is that people who love cruising swear by it no matter what. So the loyalist will be ready to cruise.. They have been ready since the cruises got cancelled.

The issue may come with first time cruise goers for a few years but that should come back once there is a Covid 19 vaccine and/or other preventive measures. 
 

What I’m really curious about is which company will be the first to allow passengers back on to cruise. Because those first few cruises will set the tone. The media would have a field day if cruising resumes and there is outbreak. 

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8 minutes ago, J-Fitz said:

Cruising will surely be back in at least some capacity before the end of 2021. Barring some unforeseen issue.

I do think it will take years to get back to levels of prosperity they enjoyed before the virus. Something I have learned though is that people who love cruising swear by it no matter what. So the loyalist will be ready to cruise.. They have been ready since the cruises got cancelled.

The issue may come with first time cruise goers for a few years but that should come back once there is a Covid 19 vaccine and/or other preventive measures. 
 

What I’m really curious about is which company will be the first to allow passengers back on to cruise. Because those first few cruises will set the tone. The media would have a field day if cruising resumes and there is outbreak. 

And each company need to be very careful with that , because if they star to early and there is outbreak it will be almost like end of cruising for long, long time. 

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I also thinking cruising in general before the end of this year. I am referring to Australia/NZ which has a 7 month cruise season (Oct-Apr) and I just don’t think they will cruise here again until next year.

i hope I am wrong as we have 3 cruises booked but with 2 weeks isolation in each country (if it is still in place) it will make cruising impractical.

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Very unfortunate.  If only China had been more open about this virus early, the impact to the cruise industry might have been greatly diminished.  

Glad I made it down under and to New Zealand on a cruise when I did, right as this was beginning to explode.  

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39 minutes ago, F1guynz said:

I also thinking cruising in general before the end of this year. I am referring to Australia/NZ which has a 7 month cruise season (Oct-Apr) and I just don’t think they will cruise here again until next year.

i hope I am wrong as we have 3 cruises booked but with 2 weeks isolation in each country (if it is still in place) it will make cruising impractical.

The 7 month season only applies to some cruise lines.

It will most likely be Carnival (which was starting it's first year round cruising with Carnival Splendor this year), or P&O that make the first move if cruising is to restarted before October.

RCI have the benefit in this region of seeing what plays out with other cruise lines before committing to their season starting in October.

I also wonder if they will now change their plans to bring Quantum here after it's Alaska season in 2021. 

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I agree largely with F1guynz. It's hard to see cruising starting anytime in at least the next 12 months.  Australia is essentially in lockdown and the public is being primed to expect this to remain for a good 6 months. After that, it will be a softly softly approach to re-opening society, with the possibility of retreating again if secondary outbreaks occur.

I'm seeing a lot of posts on these boards about cruisers optimistic about their August cruise, or their September cruise, or whenever. I don't see that as realistic. Not even close. It makes me wonder if the messaging in North America from the authorities is not as urgent as down here?

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2 hours ago, F1guynz said:

I have attached a link to an update from Carnival Australia regarding the state of the industry in Australia and the demonising of the cruise business there.

i think it is just as applicable to RCI as the world goes into panic mode and seeks to find someone to blame. Earlier this week P&O Explorer whose home port is Sydney was ordered out of harbour even without any cases of Covid-19 ever being reported on the ship.
Pacific Explorer expelled from its home port.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/carnival-cruises-boss-slams-decision-to-force-pacific-explorer-ship-off-shores/news-story/c432abd92c774a03db15490128be5253

 

 

 

This is basically thanks to the Ruby Princess debacle.

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10 hours ago, KWofPerth said:

It makes me wonder if the messaging in North America from the authorities is not as urgent as down here?

I think the U.S. messaging is very focused on the next few weeks to months with little mention or messaging about life 3 - 24 months away.  The focus is on the coming hump with hopefully low hundreds of thousands dead.  

If you read between the main headlines you can come to the conclusion by yourself that this virus will still be with us 18 - 24 months from now when hopefully a vaccine will start to become available but the media is so focused on the White House briefings that they aren't mentioning the long range outlook or very much at all about life after June.  The media up here is historically split along political lines and that remains evident in the coverage most are providing of the virus.  The media spends so much energy dissecting every word of the near daily White House briefings to support their left or right political views that they aren't thinking independently enough to address life 12 months from now.

Consequently there is hope of cruising in June or July up here while I personally think the probability of that is pretty low.  I think Royal has figured it out otherwise they wouldn't have secured several billion in backup loans to get through it.  You don't need 3 billion in loans to get through 3 or 4 months.

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12 hours ago, twangster said:

If only China had been more open about this virus early, the impact to the cruise industry might have been greatly diminished.  

 

I strongly disagree.

You can't blame China if you also did not heed the advice from South Korea and the excellent job that was done there.

 

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I agree, you can´t blame China. Our own govt downplayed it, South Korea was yelling about it early and seemed to do a good job. It looks like the Pacific cruises are more in jeopardy long term as of now.

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19 hours ago, twangster said:

Glad I made it down under and to New Zealand on a cruise when I did

I am glad you got to enjoy your time down in this part of the world. 

We were only on a cruise 5 weeks ago, that seems like a lifetime ago. The virus was just something on the news in the background. Now we are locked down in our homes for the next 4 weeks trying to break the chain of infection.

i am working from home but really look forward to the day when I can return to the office.

We were also due to get married next month but have had to postpone the wedding until next year.

Stay healthy twangster and everyone else in our online community.

 

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50 minutes ago, F1guynz said:

I am glad you got to enjoy your time down in this part of the world. 

We were only on a cruise 5 weeks ago, that seems like a lifetime ago. The virus was just something on the news in the background. Now we are locked down in our homes for the next 4 weeks trying to break the chain of infection.

i am working from home but really look forward to the day when I can return to the office.

We were also due to get married next month but have had to postpone the wedding until next year.

Stay healthy twangster and everyone else in our online community.

 

Sorry to hear you've had to reschedule the wedding but such is life in these crazy times.

Stay well and congratulations on your upcoming wedding!

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7 hours ago, bobroo said:

I strongly disagree.

You can't blame China if you also did not heed the advice from South Korea and the excellent job that was done there.

 

 

2 hours ago, ehw51 said:

I agree, you can´t blame China. Our own govt downplayed it, South Korea was yelling about it early and seemed to do a good job. It looks like the Pacific cruises are more in jeopardy long term as of now.

Early on China claimed it wasn't spreading human to human.  If that news had been corrected earlier compared to letting the world (including South Korea) find out once community spread was common place and in full force places like Europe and the North America may have been spared a significant amount of what it has gone through.  

It's not just the US that was slow to react.  The slow reaction was founded in reports coming from China in the early days.  

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Can totally blame China.

For not only lying and covering up the virus, but for their disgusting practices that cause these kinds of things in the first place.

It's no surprise that doctors who tried to let the world know what was happening went '"missing".

Back to the topic. Carnival now face a criminal investigation 

https://7news.com.au/travel/coronavirus/coronavirus-in-australia-criminal-investigation-to-be-launched-in-ruby-princess-cruise-ship-debacle-c-957415

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It seems odd to only single out the cruise industry when aeroplanes were flying people in with Covid-19 all the time, that is where most cases in NZ originated from. Should they be criminally liable for any deaths as a result of Covid-19 as well?

 

 

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2 hours ago, F1guynz said:

It seems odd to only single out the cruise industry when aeroplanes were flying people in with Covid-19 all the time, that is where most cases in NZ originated from. Should they be criminally liable for any deaths as a result of Covid-19 as well?

 

 

I personally know two individuals that flew BACK INTO the US on "aeroplanes" into MAJOR airports (Dulles and San Francisco) from other countries (Honduras and Japan) AFTER the ban on non-US Citizens went into effect (they are both US Citizens so were allowed to come home) and when they both landed there was NO ONE to check those coming off the planes.

They just walked off AS usual and got their luggage and went home. Walked through customs with no questions, no temp taking, no "where have you been?" or "how do you feel?"

Nada. Zip. Zilch.

My friend that came from Japan was shocked. They had expected to be screened getting off the plane before or during customs.

From what I am hearing on the ground, cruise ships sound 1000% safer to travel via than planes.

The airlines are doing zero screening or checking of anyone from what I am hearing.

 

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2 hours ago, F1guynz said:

It seems odd to only single out the cruise industry when aeroplanes were flying people in with Covid-19 all the time, that is where most cases in NZ originated from. Should they be criminally liable for any deaths as a result of Covid-19 as well?

Airplanes, trains and buses don't have medical teams on them who are required to report illness on board.  Neither do grocery stores, churches, schools or sports stadiums.

It's difficult to track the movements of someone who flew domestically but stood in a line to get a coffee with someone who just got off a plane from China.  Three minutes in that line in close proximity they now touch the credit card machine right after that passenger from China and now they have it without even knowing.  Next they board a plane for a short flight within their country and by the time the plane lands 6 more are infected.  

On a cruise ship every visit to the medical center is logged and documented.  Upon arriving from being away a ship is asked about any health issues and they are required to report it.  A local ferry boat might see one infected person board and 20 minute later there are dozens of infected COVID-19 passengers but no one knows it so it goes unreported.   Some of those now go to church or school or a grocery store but no one knows so it goes unreported.

The fact is that community spread was occurring as passengers boarded cruise ships around the world but nobody knew it at the time.  Guests unknowingly brought it on board a cruise ship but they caught COVID-19 on land and introduced it to the ship - the ship didn't make the virus out of thin air.  At that same moment community spread was occurring at hundreds of social gatherings from school to church to bars to neighborhood card games but there is no way to capture that and document it like there is on a cruise ship.

The media can't report that which is undocumented yet we all now know was occurring.  It's unproven theory even though it's accepted within the scientific community.  Hard counts in documented reports from ship medical logs are facts that are easily picked up by the media.  "Seventeen guests with flu like symptoms" is a hard fact that a journalist can write an entire story around.  

Banning churches and school would be a hard sell for any free society to accept so they quietly get included in stay at home policies.  Calling out and banning a luxury vacation industry is an easier sell that makes it look like governments are doing something despite the fact that it doesn't really do anything at this point and those same stay at home policies already cover the cruise industry.

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12 minutes ago, twangster said:

Airplanes, trains and buses don't have medical teams on them who are required to report illness on board.  Neither do grocery stores, churches, schools or sports stadiums.

It's difficult to track the movements of someone who flew domestically but stood in a line to get a coffee with someone who just got off a plane from China.  Three minutes in that line in close proximity they now touch the credit card machine right after that passenger from China and now they have it without even knowing.  Next they board a plane for a short flight within their country and by the time the plane lands 6 more are infected.  

On a cruise ship every visit to the medical center is logged and documented.  Upon arriving from being away a ship is asked about any health issues and they are required to report it.  A local ferry boat might see one infected person board and 20 minute later there are dozens of infected COVID-19 passengers but no one knows it so it goes unreported.   Some of those now go to church or school or a grocery store but no one knows so it goes unreported.

The fact is that community spread was occurring as passengers boarded cruise ships around the world but nobody knew it at the time.  Guests unknowingly brought it on board a cruise ship but they caught COVID-19 on land and introduced it to the ship - the ship didn't make the virus out of thin air.  At that same moment community spread was occurring at hundreds of social gatherings from school to church to bars to neighborhood card games but there is no way to capture that and document it like there is on a cruise ship.

The media can't report that which is undocumented yet we all now know was occurring.  It's unproven theory even though it's accepted within the scientific community.  Hard counts in documented reports from ship medical logs are facts that are easily picked up by the media.  "Seventeen guests with flu like symptoms" is a hard fact that a journalist can write an entire story around.  

Banning churches and school would be a hard sell for any free society to accept so they quietly get included in stay at home policies.  Calling out and banning a luxury vacation industry is an easier sell that makes it look like governments are doing something despite the fact that it doesn't really do anything at this point and those same stay at home policies already cover the cruise industry.

 

@twangster I wish I could hug you, this post is absolutely spot on!!!

 

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One major difference with Australia is how isolated our population is to start with.

This is one of the few times it is good to live in one of the most isolated cities in the world (Perth). Western Australia has closed it's borders to the rest of the country, and other states are doing the same. With a bit of luck, this could mean that Australia can actually get ahead of the virus very quickly.

New Zealand was even quicker to act, and also has a good chance to get on top of it as well.

Once we have a period where there are no cases of Covid 19 in either country, cruises may well start up again. If other parts of the world are not allowing cruises, but Australia and NZ are, it won't take long for ships to get here. Considering how long it takes a ship to reach places like Sydney or Melbourne from another part of the world, a 14 day quarantine period for the crew is simple. Obviously the cruises would only be for people already in Australia or NZ, but at least there could be a chance.

 

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On 4/5/2020 at 12:01 AM, mattymay said:

Interesting that there is a criminal investigation regarding how guests got off the ship, but not one that addresses how guests were allowed to board the ship in Sydney with the virus.  

To focus exclusively on debarkation while ignoring that guests who didn't know they were infected were able to board the ship seems like it's not going to lead to a thorough and complete investigation.  

When I left Australia mid-February they reviewed my passport for any indication of travel to China but that was it.  It seems odd to expend so many resources to look at one event on a cruise ship while ignoring all the other avenues of spread that was occurring before and during the same period.  Why were people allowed to get off airplanes or trains that had the virus or flu like symptoms? 

On the way to the ship those same infected guests did infect others in the Sydney area.  Taxi drivers, hotel employees, bus drivers, OPT terminal workers, etc.  Community spread in the Sydney area was occurring as the ship was boarding.

Why wasn't a lockdown or other actions taken by the government ordered earlier that would have prevented ill guests from boarding the ship in the first place?  The obvious answer is that hindsight is 20-20. 

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1 hour ago, twangster said:

Interesting that there is a criminal investigation regarding how guests got off the ship,  

I agree...is it not protocol for the ship to inform the port authority of any ill passengers, regardless of the nature of the illness(be it Noroviru, common cold, flu etc)...how could they not know; and yet approve the disembarkment of passengers...otherwise, the port authority would have turn the ship around, correct?

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I thought there were situations where the ship was required to advise the port of onboard illness.  I can’t remember the actual percentages, but I do believe that if there are X percentage of guests and/or crew suffering from flu-like symptoms, the ship must alert the port prior to entering.  I know this has been the case for norovirus in the past.

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