hurricane

[Bonnen]

what's the chances of being in a hurricane or a tropical storm going to the western Caribbean end of sept?

[Traveling Mike]

Being in the hurricane, almost none.  The ships watch the weather and take the ships around bad weather.  Your ports of call could change based on the weather.  The season is June 1 through November 30 and normally peaks in August and September.  Just understand in September you might have different ports than what were there when you booked the cruise.

[Gadget Hackwrench]

14 minutes ago, Bonnen said:

what's the chances of being in a hurricane or a tropical storm going to the western Caribbean end of sept?

Let me get my crystal ball out...

In the Atlantic, there are indications that tropical activity could start to pick up more notably in the next 10 days.

Weather models predict more aggressive tropical waves rolling off the coast of Africa and propagating west through Main Development Region aka Hurricane Alley. Hurricane Alley is a belt of tropical Atlantic that sometimes churns out long-lived powerful storms one after another.

There are several factors aid storm formation. Wind shear may decrease which allows for better vertical development of a storm. Dust from the Sahara can also thwart storm formation. That may permit some tropical systems to sprout, particularly as the oceans continue to warm.

The Gulf of Mexico could also become increasingly favorable for potential storms toward the end of August; the Gulf of Mexico is running about a half-degree to a degree above average in terms of sea surface temperature and I predict this will continue through August and all the way through September into October.

I should add that weather reports sometimes have errors. I personally regret one forecast I provided to the crew of the SS Minnow. Poor Gilligan and the Skipper

[Traveling Mike]

11 minutes ago, Gadget Hackwrench said:

I provided to the crew of the SS Minnow. Poor Gilligan and the Skipper

You gave Gilligan an adventure of a lifetime.  

[Bowen]

I was going to say something regarding the month and lack of activity, but now I've jinxed it and should never have typed this.

[tonyfsu21]

1 hour ago, Bonnen said:

what's the chances of being in a hurricane or a tropical storm going to the western Caribbean end of sept?

Same as it always is…. Possible. I do t think the meteorologists on this forum can predict the next hurricane. I would say book it. 

[mistertomatohead]

1 hour ago, Bonnen said:

what's the chances of being in a hurricane or a tropical storm going to the western Caribbean end of sept?

What's your concern? Cancellation? Itinerary changes (skipped or changed ports, reduced time at port, etc.)? Rough seas? Rain ruining excursions or that beach day? Delayed/cancelled flights? No compensation when things change?

A lot can happen. It is the peak of the season. I guess you can expect rain. I don't know about rough seas when the ship is going around storms. I don't know what the cruises have done in the past as far as compensation. It seems they don't provide any if they skip a port. Maybe I'm wrong. I'm guessing cruises should be really cheap during this time so you get what you pay for.

[Bonnen]

22 minutes ago, mistertomatohead said:

What's your concern? Cancellation? Itinerary changes (skipped or changed ports, reduced time at port, etc.)? Rough seas? Rain ruining excursions or that beach day? Delayed/cancelled flights? No compensation when things change?

A lot can happen. It is the peak of the season. I guess you can expect rain. I don't know about rough seas when the ship is going around storms. I don't know what the cruises have done in the past as far as compensation. It seems they don't provide any if they skip a port. Maybe I'm wrong. I'm guessing cruises should be really cheap during this time so you get what you pay for.

no concerns, just was asking what the possibility of being in a hurricane or tropical storm was. that's why they have whiskey on board right?

[ChessE4]

In Sept 2019 hurricane hit Florida on way to NC, and we were able to depart Wilmingron  the day after landfall.  Cocoa Beach was open and not crowded. Lots of shells. Great cruise with calm seas.

[ellcee]

It’s called hurricane season for a reason. As stated above the ships usually know their way around it. Some years we get a lot some years we don’t get very much. You really can’t know until the week ahead and even that means nothing. Last year we left a small island for the island we live on because there was supposed to be an awful hurricane. We got home, some rain and wind. No big deal though we were evacuated from the first island. Other years we’ve had little warning and had huge hurricanes which wiped out our power. You really never know. 

[BrianB]

I always prepare for a change of itinerary during hurricane season. Especially if there is a storm forming a week or so before the departure date. If I have a cruise booked from NJ going south to the Bahamas or even east to Bermuda, I always make sure to pack some warm things in the event the ship’s itinerary is changed to New England/Canada.

[twangster]

Hurricanes are like stock.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

September 10 is the historical peak of hurricane season AND tropical storms which can also put a damper on a cruise without reaching hurricane strength.

 NOAA:

 

So what does that mean?  Nothing, so far.

No one knows what Mother Nature has planned for us in September 2022, or October 2022, or November 2022.

[smokeybandit]

The chances of a western gulf hurricane in September are higher than most months, but the odds of having a cruise interrupted by a storm are always very low

[Matt]

In short, if there's a storm, your ship is going somewhere else: https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2020/03/30/what-know-about-cruising-during-hurricane-season-the-caribbean

[tjcruisers]

We cruised many times around then and never had an issue that couldn't be worked out. It is a cheaper time to sail so it's definitely worth any risk. One time a tropical storm was moving in on the day at Coca Cay. They just called everybody back in and moved elsewhere. The only one that really concerned me was on our Oasis cruise in 2015. The national hurricane center was tracking tropical storm Erika. It was suppose to hit Fort Lauderdale as hurricane the night our cruise was leaving leaving. The managed to get everybody on board well ahead of time and we left early (kind of remember getting an email asking us to get to the port as early as possible). Also they closed the parking lot beside the terminal and everybody had to park in parking garage on level 3 or above (had shuttles to back tot he terminal). They are organized and have everything planned out and under control.

[Reigert2008]

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center.  I keep an eye on this throughout hurricane center both for “fun” and for vacation hiccups.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[AshleyDillo]

I have had a sailing altered for a storm before. As long as you can be flexible it isn't that big of a deal. Royal isn't going to put their ships in danger, but if you are dead set on making a particular port stop, that could definitely be threatened. But that can also happen on any cruise for a non-related reason. 

The one storm altered cruise I had effectively resulted in a free cruise for me with the combo of FCC and OBC that we received for the shortened cruise. Again, flexibility is key because we had to change flights on the fly and other accommodations to make it work.

[WAYNO]

We were impacted by Hurricane Dorian.  The skipper sped ahead and around the impacted area to minimize our exposure, getting us back to home port 12 hours early.   He made up for it by giving us a world class trip up the Hudson River. 

 

As rough as the ocean was, the ship remained quite comfortable.

[CharmMicah68]

First cruise....Majesty of the Seas....Honeymoon, Aug 1992.  Yep, you guessed it.  We got back to Miami the DAY Hurricane Andrew hit.  Back then, no cell phones, no internet, no fast info.....It was REAL!  Basically, get off the ship and GO, GO, GO!  Now THAT is how you launch a marriage and endear your in-laws to you.....  

[AandD]

[AshleyDillo]

4 hours ago, WAYNO said:

We were impacted by Hurricane Dorian.

Dorian was the one that impacted us.  Kept us on our toes until the last minute trying to figure out where she was going to land in Florida.  It ended up that Port Everglades was closed and our embarkation was pushed back a couple of days while the folks on the ship had their sailing extended for a few days.  Got me really familiar with understanding how travel insurance actually works and in our situation we didn't have to use it at all fortunately.  Travel insurance doesn't allow you much extra flexibility either when dealing with storms if you read the policies closely -- i.e. you can't proactively do something and incur any additional costs to avoid a claim and expect insurance to cover those costs.

[need2cruz]

I was on a land vacation in Cancun in November of 2009, when a hurricane came to our resort.  It made the trip awful.  While we were stuck in our room unable to do anything at the all -inclusive resort, we watched the weather channel on tv.  They were talking about the "poor cruise passengers" unable to dock there and how they were diverting them to Jamaica instead.  I was convinced from that moment on, cruising was a much better vacation because the ship will just divert you to another place.