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Call It: First Cruise Sails.......????


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8 minutes ago, CJS2766 said:

Will we have any 7 night or longer cruise in 2021 or will we have to wait until 2022 for those?--They will have 7 nights, but no longer

I also should have asked, if cruising does resume lets say by September, will ports be closed or will it be RC excusrions only??--Ports will be open by September

One other thing: I believe all passengers over 16 will need to prove vaccination.  That's important for your second question.

As always, these are just guesses!

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There is no way the US CDC would follow that rational line of thinking 😂   Official statement would read.... Just because tens of thousands of people have successfully and safely cruise

If using “Price is Right” rules (going past/over disqualifies) my guess for U.S. departure is July 1. 

I think you mean yy% because in the time it took to write this the CDC has already moved the goalposts 3 times.

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15 minutes ago, Curt From Canada said:

My guess is December 1, 2020.  I am not 100% certain, but I think a Quantum Class ship sailing from a part of the world that is impossible for me to get to.

😉

Sorry, I know everyone is upset (me too), but it is Friday afternoon and I am feeling "punchy".  90 minutes to Martini Time!

Curt from Canada

You mean 2021?

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2 hours ago, CJS2766 said:

Another question then?? Will we have any 7 night or longer cruise in 2021 or will we have to wait until 2022 for those? If that happens, I guess my 7 night this Oct will go bye bye!!! DO you think that it will be 3 days cruising only??

I have a B2B on Allure starting October 17th.  They are two 7-day cruises for a total of 14 days.  I'm thinking one of those will go but I might cancel the other one if Allure starts on October 1st.  Otherwise, I think there will be some cruise departing the US by August 1st.

I think Allure has a good chance of starting sooner rather than later because the stops are Nassau and the private islands mostly. I'm hoping she starts by July 1st so I can evaluate things before the final payment date.

I will say July 15th .... final answer.

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24 minutes ago, Vancity Cruiser said:

Let me translate Canadian sarcasm....Curt is referencing the Quantum which started sailing December 2020

Just so Quantum is back by August ... 2022 I mean.   Do you think Canada might be willing to allow Alaska cruises by then?

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This is such a complicated question to even make an educated guess. So many variables, not the least of which is the arbitrariness of the CDC. They have a huge hang-up on congregate settings being cauldrons of disease spread. Well, they are and always have been. What the CDC seems to be missing is that while they live in a status-quo state regarding infectiouos disease, everything with regard to COVID is changing faster than they can keep up.

So, the answer to the question is then a two step one:

(1) When the CDC gets a dose of reality. Look, the observational evidence is overwhelming that adequate protections from SARS-2 spread among vaccinated people exists to the point where they should realize that SARS-2 is rapidly approaching the nuisance stage that bugs like Norovirus, seasonal influenza and cruise cough have lived in for years. Vaccinated people can congregate ..... period, full stop...... using the same hygiene protocols most people adhere to to keep from getting sick. Moreover, this is not a zero risk proposition. You might get sick, you might get COVID, but if you're vaccinated you aren't going to get seriously ill.   

(2) When the "technicals" of complying with the CDC's Safe to Sail requirements that the cruise lines say they are waiting for to be in receipt of any day now (right!) are in their hands and we see test cruises happening from FL and TX ports.

Has anyone been able to collate the date on which the majors have avoided cancelling cruises in either June or July? Gut based guess in June is Friday the 11th-Sunday the 13th or in July, the  3rd - 5th. 3-5d cruises would be most likely to start on those dates, possibly 7d itineraries under the right circumstances. The tea leaves say passengers wishing to board will have to have proof of vaccination, possibly proof of previous infection by PCR and recovery by Anti-Body testing.

A June start-up for revenue cruises requires the CDC to green light test cruises by mid April and then, cruise ships, in small numbers getting approved/certified safe to sail in around 6w time following that. Lots of things have to fall into place but, it's possible barring any vaccine delivery hic-ups or politization of decisions involving the safety of properly adapted congregate settings like baseball stadiums, indoor concerts and yep, cruise ships. But, it's going to be slow going. A single COVID case on a cruise ship in the testing and certification phase or on subsequent revenue sailings will up-set the entire apple cart.

In other words restarting cruising from US ports is really hard. While I'm optimistic it could happen as early as June, so many potential pit-falls. 

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1 hour ago, Mike.s said:

Early August, UK cruises start, end of August short cruises to Co Co Cay, 2022, normality returns, hopefully.

Late July hopefully as I'm on the 24th sailing...got everything crossed.  Although, on Tips for Travellers love stream on YouTube (today) there was rumours from crew on-board RCL ships that they are crewing up for June sailings

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25 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

The cruise lines would have to be able to do test cruises this month in order to be doing revenue cruises in June.

Not in UK as the suggestion is that test cruises have been done courtesy of MSC in Italy, proving that protocols can work.  In the US I think each cruise line needs to do test cruises...

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1 hour ago, em.down.the.rabbit.hole said:

Not in UK as the suggestion is that test cruises have been done courtesy of MSC in Italy, proving that protocols can work.  In the US I think each cruise line needs to do test cruises...

There is no way the US CDC would follow that rational line of thinking 😂

 

Official statement would read....

Just because tens of thousands of people have successfully and safely cruised since last fall and through the “second wave” on multiple cruise lines does not mean it is safe to resume. If we allow this we at the CDC will no longer feel important and we cannot let this happen.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 3/13/2021 at 12:47 PM, Vancity Cruiser said:

Official statement would read....

Just because tens of thousands of people have successfully and safely cruised since last fall and through the “second wave” on multiple cruise lines does not mean it is safe to resume. If we allow this we at the CDC will no longer feel important and we cannot let this happen.

With all the announcements made since this post the statement will have to be amended to hundreds of thousands (potentially even millions by the time they realize that they are in fact the ones holding up the entire industry) have successfully and safely sailed.

Seriously though, how long can the CDC ignore the facts of successful sailings? Even “non vaccinated” cruises are operating safely with testing and other protocols in place.

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14 minutes ago, Vancity Cruiser said:

Seriously though, how long can the CDC ignore the facts of successful sailings? Even “non vaccinated” cruises are operating safely with testing and other protocols in place.

Perhaps they think vaccines don't work as well as we all hope.  It's the only plausible explanation.  

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1 hour ago, twangster said:

Perhaps they think vaccines don't work as well as we all hope.  It's the only plausible explanation.  

Saw this today that in a "real world study" that both Pfizer and Moderna show to be 90% effective.  This would probably take into account at least some of the variants.  Report was from the CDC, so maybe this will affect future plans.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-29/pfizer-moderna-vaccines-prevent-infections-in-real-world-study

*Edit: i forgot the link to the article!

 

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21 minutes ago, twangster said:

Perhaps they think vaccines don't work as well as we all hope.  It's the only plausible explanation.  

Politically-driven agencies are much like cruise ships. They can't just put the brakes on and stop.  Look at the recent school guidance change from 6 feet to 3 feet. The CDC directory said last summer that 3 feet was fine, but it 9 months later to actually make that their formal guidance.

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43 minutes ago, twangster said:

Perhaps they think vaccines don't work as well as we all hope.  It's the only plausible explanation.  

hmm..no...really?!

Here in Canada I think we know that..there has been no relaxation or rule changes for vaccinated people at all.(One vaccine I wont name isn't acceptable for Nurses here in Canada, hmm)

 

Still wear a mask, social distance..and you can still get it and give it even when vaccinatted....so why would cruises or anything start based on that.

 

Case #'s going up and down is a natural progression or  a virus..happened last summer with NO vaccines so.....

 

I feel its a long wait yet for cruising.....date wise...? Well it depends, are we talking back to normal cruising or full fleet or relaxed protocols when cruising again or?

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