POLL: Will you sail on a cruise before there is a COVID-19 vaccine?

[monctonguy]

On ‎5‎/‎16‎/‎2020 at 7:26 PM, Cmblueyes said:

Do you think the ports will open on July 1 like they originally stated? We're supposed to do a Gulf of Alaska from Seward at the beginning of September. I'm optimistically hopeful. 

In Canada I am guessing not.....sounds like out east here that probably the whole summer they will be closed. Not sure about Westen Canada for Alaskan cruises.

[alamode123]

being a solo cruiser, the main enjoyment I have (other than the ultimate dining plan) is interacting with others. Until social distancing isn't needed, I'm postponing travel.

[bossdog421]

I'm already booked in September and have no plans on changing it unless they cancel it. If i could go earlier i would.

 

As for the discussion of masks. I wouldn't say it's a deal breaker at all but i wouldn't be happy if they were required everywhere. It just doesnt work. Dining? Pool / spa? Open air decks? Kids club? I think a compromise would be requiring them when attending shows where its much closer quarters for long periods of time. If there is any mask requirement good luck enforcing it, half the people that are wearing them now aren't wearing them properly which defeats a lot of the purpose.

 

Temp checks are fine. If they have some sort of rapid testing i'd be fine with getting that done too (multiple times if needed). Spacing chairs out a bit inside and out would help too. Little things like that would at least provide some peace of mind. I'd feel comfortable without any of that too.

 

I'm around this virus a lot, and the first month or so was without the "proper" ppe. Proper hygiene and common sense go a long way (yeah i know more is needed but my point remains).  Unfortunately both of those seem to be hard to come by when you are dealing with the masses. There will always be a risk.

 

Edit: Didn't realize i already posted in this thread. I need a vacation lol... Oh well, the first post wasn't this detailed.

[KJ1231]

We were blessed that my 81yo other with emphysema and in a nursing home had the virus and never had more than a fever. She is doing great now.

My wife and son both had it - were in bed for a couple days and then fine.

In 59 years I got one flu shot and got the flu. Will never get another......

I won't sail if I have to wear a mask.... with all the eating and drinking (non-alcohol) I'd need one with a motion detector that would remove it as a water bottle, glass, straw, fork or spoon approached.

[deep1]

I am not an anti vaxer by any means... I don't really like the stuff they mix in that cocktail but neither here or there. If I had to make a guess, they may never get a real vaccine for this one. Like Herpes or HIV or Sars  or Mers... These things mutate so quick that its near impossible to keep up with it as it changes... You have that then you also have a lot of these viruses just run their course... If I hear 1918 again I will likely create new expletives not yet part of the English language... 1918 was a flu, how many times do we have to hear "this is not a flu" ... Can't have it both ways...  So many unknowns. What I do know is that I would far prefer sitting on a balcony counting flying fish than playing armchair immunologist...

 

[twangster]

Flu vaccines are stated to be around 40% to 60% effective.  Each year different vaccines are developed.  Flu season is typically comprised of at least two major types each peaking at different times - they have their own unique epidemiology.   Most of us just call it "the flu" but there are many variations impacting different groups of people differently.  For the U.S. we have grown to accept that somewhere around 40,000 of us will die each year from the flu.  Many people are cavalier regarding the flu and spreading it.  They may know they have something more than a common cold but off they go riding public transportation, going to work, going to school, going shopping, going to church, going on an airplane, going on a cruise and in doing so, spreading the flu.

I suspect we will reach something like this with COVID-19.  Like "the flu" it will mutate over time.  Eventually there may be some sort of herd immunity against the more common variations.  There are promising signs that a vaccine will be forthcoming but like "the flu" (as if there is only one flu) no single vaccine may protect us from all variations and vaccines most likely won't be 100% effective.  Each year different vaccines may be required.  Like "the flu" we may grow to accept that each year a number of us will die from COVID-19 variations.

In 1918 the second wave of the flu was particularly impactful.  There was a world war going and that took precedence over the science that the flu would spread.  In the era of 1918 that world had known a lot of infectious diseases.  Going back hundreds of years it was common during times of disease for an arriving ship to be quarantined before allowing anyone to step on land.  They may not have understood a virus or be able to view it under a microscope but in the 14th century ships were at times placed under quarantine upon arrival.   They did understand the concept of social distancing and isolation as a means to stop a virus from spreading even if they didn't understand the virus itself.  Note though they didn't stop ships from sailing, commerce took precedence.  It's easy to imagine in 1918 they simply didn't know what might occur but they did know and science did predict what the outcome might be.  The world chose to ignore the science because there was a war to win and so they continued to move troops around the world, spreading the virus and exposing different regions to new flu variations.  

It's too early to know if we are repeating history.  Science is telling us the second wave is coming.  Some are choosing to ignore it and are prioritizing a return to normal.  Only time will tell if the second wave will look like it did in 1918.   Perhaps the second wave will be nothing and cruising can restart in the midst of the second wave of COVID-19 or perhaps the loss rate for those impacted by the second wave can be acceptable to society because keeping the economy shutdown is not considered by many as a long term viable option.  In that event I just hope the cruise or travel industry in general isn't singled out and vilified because society collectively decided to bravely move forward and reopen.   

Keeping the travel industry shutdown will save lives but at what cost?  Eventually companies will be forced to close.  Hertz just filed for bankruptcy.  Hopefully they can navigate through bankruptcy and survive.  If we don't restart the travel industry soon more companies will fail including some cruise lines.  That means restarting the travel industry before a vaccine is developed, produced and distributed to the masses.  If the cruise and travel industry is to survive society must be willing to accept the risks by restarting before a vaccine is commonly available to everyone.  In so doing society must not turn around and blame the travel industry when some lives are lost as if no one knew that was a possibility.

[L454S]

1 hour ago, twangster said:

Flu vaccines are stated to be around 40% to 60% effective.  Each year different vaccines are developed.  Flu season is typically comprised of at least two major types each peaking at different times - they have their own unique epidemiology.   Most of us just call it "the flu" but there are many variations impacting different groups of people differently.  For the U.S. we have grown to accept that somewhere around 40,000 of us will die each year from the flu.  Many people are cavalier regarding the flu and spreading it.  They may know they have something more than a common cold but off they go riding public transportation, going to work, going to school, going shopping, going to church, going on an airplane, going on a cruise and in doing so, spreading the flu.

I suspect we will reach something like this with COVID-19.  Like "the flu" it will mutate over time.  Eventually there may be some sort of herd immunity against the more common variations.  There are promising signs that a vaccine will be forthcoming but like "the flu" (as if there is only one flu) no single vaccine may protect us from all variations and vaccines most likely won't be 100% effective.  Each year different vaccines may be required.  Like "the flu" we may grow to accept that each year a number of us will die from COVID-19 variations.

In 1918 the second wave of the flu was particularly impactful.  There was a world war going and that took precedence over the science that the flu would spread.  In the era of 1918 that world had known a lot of infectious diseases.  Going back hundreds of years it was common during times of disease for an arriving ship to be quarantined before allowing anyone to step on land.  They may not have understood a virus or be able to view it under a microscope but in the 14th century ships were at times placed under quarantine upon arrival.   They did understand the concept of social distancing and isolation as a means to stop a virus from spreading even if they didn't understand the virus itself.  Note though they didn't stop ships from sailing, commerce took precedence.  It's easy to imagine in 1918 they simply didn't know what might occur but they did know and science did predict what the outcome might be.  The world chose to ignore the science because there was a war to win and so they continued to move troops around the world, spreading the virus and exposing different regions to new flu variations.  

It's too early to know if we are repeating history.  Science is telling us the second wave is coming.  Some are choosing to ignore it and are prioritizing a return to normal.  Only time will tell if the second wave will look like it did in 1918.   Perhaps the second wave will be nothing and cruising can restart in the midst of the second wave of COVID-19 or perhaps the loss rate for those impacted by the second wave can be acceptable to society because keeping the economy shutdown is not considered by many as a long term viable option.  In that event I just hope the cruise or travel industry in general isn't singled out and vilified because society collectively decided to bravely move forward and reopen.   

Keeping the travel industry shutdown will save lives but at what cost?  Eventually companies will be forced to close.  Hertz just filed for bankruptcy.  Hopefully they can navigate through bankruptcy and survive.  If we don't restart the travel industry soon more companies will fail including some cruise lines.  That means restarting the travel industry before a vaccine is developed, produced and distributed to the masses.  If the cruise and travel industry is to survive society must be willing to accept the risks by restarting before a vaccine is commonly available to everyone.  In so doing society must not turn around and blame the travel industry when some lives are lost as if no one knew that was a possibility.

It's not just the travel industries, keeping things shut down will have deep impacts on many segments and varieties of businesses both small and large.

Even restaurants can't survive at 25% or 50%.

I agree that it is just another SLIGHT risk we take when living our lives. I am OK with that. Lots of other things I can concern myself with.

[twangster]

1 hour ago, L454S said:

It's not just the travel industries, keeping things shut down will have deep impacts on many segments and varieties of businesses both small and large.

Even restaurants can't survive at 25% or 50%.

I agree that it is just another SLIGHT risk we take when living our lives. I am OK with that. Lots of other things I can concern myself with.

Absolutely, but given this is a travel forum I tried to stay on point and related to the cruise industry.  Unfortunately the media paints the cruise industry with a very different brush compared to other industries and that will be a factor reopening travel. 

By CDC statistics cruise ships account for 1% of norovirus outbreaks.  Schools and daycare account for 6% and land based restaurants 22% of all norovirus outbreaks yet the media have labeled noro as the "cruise ship virus".   By the statistics it would be more accurate to call noro the "highschool virus" or the "fast food virus" yet the media ignores statistics and blames the cruise industry.  

Clearly restaurants have been acknowledged to represent a significant risk in spreading COVID-19 which is why they were some of the first businesses to be shut down.  Yet cruise ships have fared much worse in COVID-19 press coverage over restaurants.  

As all businesses look to restart many of those businesses don't have to worry about slanted and unfair media coverage waiting for a single infection.  Right now, this weekend someone has already been infected with the virus in a restaurant that just reopened.  You won't read about that in the news.  When cruise ships start sailing the first claim of an infection on a ship, regardless if the infection was actually on the ship or not, will be broadcast around the world.  

Business must reopen and we all must accept the consequences.  People will die.  Travel businesses must reopen too and people will die.  In both cases most people will live through the infection but there are some that will die.  Loosely following noro trends we know more people will be infected from land based restaurant exposures compared to travel exposures so we all need to keep that in mind when the media lose their minds upon the first claim of a ship infection.

[RCIfan1912]

The UK is instituting a 14 day quarantine for anyone flying in. I believe this starts June 8th. With stuff like this forget about cruises good God only knows how long. I mean if you can't fly without losing 14 days, you can't sail without losing 14 days. No one wants to sail if they need 14 days after the cruise to quarantine. No one wants to fly either if they need 14 days to quarantine. 

I'll try and find a link to the article I just read and post it. Came directly from Boris Johnson. 

[RCIfan1912]

See if this link works. 

https://simpleflying.com/uk-to-enforce-14-day-quarantine-on-all-inbound-passengers/

[Ampurp85]

@RCIfan1912 I have a friend who live in Aberdeen, he said they believe that will be in effect until 2021. As they have a bunch of reopening plans on the table and they are between 15-18 months. So at least until the end of the year I doubt any Transatlantic and European cruises will commence.

@twangster I totally agree which is why when cruising begins they will have to be one hundred percent on point. Universal has signs that will be posted saying "get Coronavirus at your own risk." There is no way any cruise company could get away with that because they have already been label a hotbox of disease and a floating petridish. I have seen tons of videos of people going to newly opened restaurants and not following the procedures, literally coughing on people as an insult. None of the restaurants have received bad press, instead it turns into something political. As cruise lines are the low man down, they cannot afford any more negative press.

[NEbluebird]

We will cruise before they have a vaccine.  I feel there are some people who are enjoying this country being shut down but not us. 

[bretts173]

On 5/24/2020 at 3:23 AM, RCIfan1912 said:

The UK is instituting a 14 day quarantine for anyone flying in. I believe this starts June 8th. With stuff like this forget about cruises good God only knows how long. I mean if you can't fly without losing 14 days, you can't sail without losing 14 days. No one wants to sail if they need 14 days after the cruise to quarantine. No one wants to fly either if they need 14 days to quarantine. 

I'll try and find a link to the article I just read and post it. Came directly from Boris Johnson. 

This is such a different perspective when yo compare different countries. Australia and NZ have had the 14 day enforced hotel quarantine in place for a couple of months. Both countries have virtually eradicated the community spread of cases apart from one state in Australia yet there are still many cases from those in Quarantine that have arrived from overseas. This has stopped the exponential spread of the virus. The issue now is that they cant afford to lift these restrictions for overseas visitors when they have made great progress. NZ have virtually gone back to normal life (apart from the travel issue) while Australia will probably be close by the end of the month. 

The plans are now underway for a travel bubble between Aus and NZ as well as the South Pacific which would not require quarantine from those areas. 

[Andrew72681]

5 minutes ago, bretts173 said:

This is such a different perspective when yo compare different countries. Australia and NZ have had the 14 day enforced hotel quarantine in place for a couple of months. Both countries have virtually eradicated the community spread of cases apart from one state in Australia yet there are still many cases from those in Quarantine that have arrived from overseas. This has stopped the exponential spread of the virus. The issue now is that they cant afford to lift these restrictions for overseas visitors when they have made great progress. NZ have virtually gone back to normal life (apart from the travel issue) while Australia will probably be close by the end of the month. 

The plans are now underway for a travel bubble between Aus and NZ as well as the South Pacific which would not require quarantine from those areas. 

Social distancing is much easier there in NZ. There’s only one stat needed The population density of New Zealand is 46 people per square mile. New York City is 27,547. Even their largest city Auckland is 1,210 or roughly 4 percent of New York City. 

[Ampurp85]

@NEbluebird The country was never shut down, it was partially opened. Not being able to do anything like in China for fear of jail or death, is shut down. I know of speakeasy's in my home town of Chicago. My mother works for a grocery chain, she has continued working her regular schedule.

That being said America as a whole won't get to zero cases because of peoples lack of empathy, narcissism, and autonomy. Some parts of the UK are getting down to single digits too, yet Georgia and Florida have seen their highest cases yet. I am glad things are reopening but loath the fact that people want to rush back to normal. This is a social disease with a ton of unknown variables. RCCI or any line cannot afford any negative press, all it takes is a possible case of Covid to set everything back.

[bretts173]

1 hour ago, Andrew72681 said:

Social distancing is much easier there in NZ. There’s only one stat needed The population density of New Zealand is 46 people per square mile. New York City is 27,547. Even their largest city Auckland is 1,210 or roughly 4 percent of New York City. 

Total misuse of statistics.  Even though the total pop density of Auckland is 1200 the fact is 90% of that population live in 30% of the area. Same as Australia, big country but 95% of the people live in 5% of the country. Sydney and Melbourne only have a smaller population than NYC.

The urban density of Auckland is more than 6000 per SQ Mile. 

 

 

[Ampurp85]

Also NYC is filthy, not just because they have no alleys. A bunch of people, in their own world, with questionable hygiene......It is a virus's dream.

[bretts173]

But it's not New York that really stands out. It's places like Georgia and Florida where the cases are on the rise again. 

 

[ellcee]

8 hours ago, Ampurp85 said:

Also NYC is filthy, not just because they have no alleys. A bunch of people, in their own world, with questionable hygiene......It is a virus's dream.

It is but the curve was flattened there and the cases are way down. Not sure what's gonna happen after the protests though.

[Andrew72681]

8 hours ago, bretts173 said:

Total misuse of statistics.  Even though the total pop density of Auckland is 1200 the fact is 90% of that population live in 30% of the area. Same as Australia, big country but 95% of the people live in 5% of the country. Sydney and Melbourne only have a smaller population than NYC.

The urban density of Auckland is more than 6000 per SQ Mile. 

 

 

Even if you go with that method of just measuring the core you get the exact same phenomenon with Manhattan. That 27k per square mile includes the further out reaches of Queens, Brooklyn, the Bronx, and Staten Island. The population density of Manahattan (1.2M people in 22.82 sq mi) is 74k. 12.3x of Auckland. 

[bretts173]

11 minutes ago, Andrew72681 said:

Even if you go with that method of just measuring the core you get the exact same phenomenon with Manhattan. That 27k per square mile includes the further out reaches of Queens, Brooklyn, the Bronx, and Staten Island. The population density of Manahattan (1.2M people in 22.82 sq mi) is 74k. 12.3x of Auckland. 

yes this can explain New York. What about the rest of the country. Arkansas has a highre infection rate than Aust and NZ combined with a total population less than sydney.

 

Sydney is more densely populated than Chicago, Seattle and Los Angeles but recent comparisons have painted the opposite picture by measuring Sydney the wrong way.

Australia is one of the most sparsely populated places on the planet if it is simply divided evenly by land area to give about three people each a square kilometre. But the reality is that residents of Potts Point, Ultimo and Chippendale shared the land around them with more than 15,000 people per square kilometre in 2016.

[Andrew72681]

2 minutes ago, bretts173 said:

yes this can explain New York. What about the rest of the country. Arkansas has a highre infection rate than Aust and NZ combined with a total population less than sydney.

 

Sydney is more densely populated than Chicago, Seattle and Los Angeles but recent comparisons have painted the opposite picture by measuring Sydney the wrong way.

Australia is one of the most sparsely populated places on the planet if it is simply divided evenly by land area to give about three people each a square kilometre. But the reality is that residents of Potts Point, Ultimo and Chippendale shared the land around them with more than 15,000 people per square kilometre in 2016.

Arkansas like many of the other hardest hit areas has the 7th highest poverty rate in the US. If you remove Bentonville/Rogers (where Walmart and reared company’s executive salaries bring the number up) it would be even worse. 
 

[Ampurp85]

Well it comes down to a lot of factors, NYC was hard hit but they socially distanced and followed protocols. Places like Ark, FL. etc never really followed social distancing or had a true stay in place order. If I remember correctly GA had a shelter in place for less than three weeks. So these places never flatten the curve....... they probably didn't have too many cases in the beginning because they aren't tourist hub. They cared more about livelihood, then lives. So they didn't test much, opened up quickly and then fudged (I recall them moving the dates around to make it seem like infections had lessen) the result. Now that they received more funding to test, they do, and therefore all of the numbers are going up....also they are  50/50 on mask and social distancing protocols. I just read how they expect the US to have 200,000 deaths by Sept because people have decided its over, when it isn't.