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Another Cancellation Round Forthcoming??


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We are in phase 2a.  Phase 2b is the simulated voyages.  CSO introduced: Oct. 2020. CSO phase 2a details provided: Apr. 2021. I'm sure the phase 2a approvals leading to phase 2b simulat

Maybe Canada can get their shipments.  I'm sure Canada will pay their bill.

Given the CDC’s lack of common sense, NCL decided to play to the CDC’s own guidance that vaccinated people can gather with very little risk. They decided not to muddy the waters by including children

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My state (KY) just opened up appointments today to people age 16 and older, and I think we've been behind a lot of other states.  Listening to our Governor today and there are a lot of available appointments across the state.  I think we are quickly reaching the point where supply may outpace demand in some areas. 

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23 minutes ago, TXcruzer said:

Yes sir, TX wide open for vaccine appointments.  The state received 2.5 million first doses for this week. 

The US administered over 4 million doses this past Friday or Saturday so it is conceivable that by June or July anyone who wants a shot can get a shot.  

 

The problem with NCL's plan is there are still quite a few details missing.  What I've learned just from the 2 or 3 months I've been a member on this site is it takes time to get ships ready to once again accept passengers.   I'm no expert in the cruise industry, but in the airline industry the longer an airplane sits on the ground in storage the longer it takes to get ready to fly again.  Some of these airplanes that have been grounded since last March it is taking 5-9 weeks to get those planes ready to fly again.  In the cruise industry I imagine NCL would need a response back from the CDC by the end of this month if they are serious about restarting cruises on July 4th.   I don't see the CDC responding to NCL's request by May.

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All RC port states offer vaccinations to all 16+ except:

April 15 - Washington (not that that really matters since Alaska cruises are toast), California

April 19 - Massachusetts (also a wash due to Canada's rules)

April 27 - Maryland

May 1 - Hawaii (again, Canada), New Jersey

 

Not sure on Puerto Rico

 

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9 minutes ago, JasonOasis said:

The US administered over 4 million doses this past Friday or Saturday so it is conceivable that by June or July anyone who wants a shot can get a shot.  

 

The problem with NCL's plan is there are still quite a few details missing.  What I've learned just from the 2 or 3 months I've been a member on this site is it takes time to get ships ready to once again accept passengers.   I'm no expert in the cruise industry, but in the airline industry the longer an airplane sits on the ground in storage the longer it takes to get ready to fly again.  Some of these airplanes that have been grounded since last March it is taking 5-9 weeks to get those planes ready to fly again.  In the cruise industry I imagine NCL would need a response back from the CDC by the end of this month if they are serious about restarting cruises on July 4th.   I don't see the CDC responding to NCL's request by May.

Cruise ships have been kept in warm storage though.  It wouldn't take long for the ships to be ready. The issue is crewing the ship and getting supply lines flowing again.

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8 minutes ago, JasonOasis said:

The US administered over 4 million doses this past Friday or Saturday so it is conceivable that by June or July anyone who wants a shot can get a shot.  

 

The problem with NCL's plan is there are still quite a few details missing.  What I've learned just from the 2 or 3 months I've been a member on this site is it takes time to get ships ready to once again accept passengers.   I'm no expert in the cruise industry, but in the airline industry the longer an airplane sits on the ground in storage the longer it takes to get ready to fly again.  Some of these airplanes that have been grounded since last March it is taking 5-9 weeks to get those planes ready to fly again.  In the cruise industry I imagine NCL would need a response back from the CDC by the end of this month if they are serious about restarting cruises on July 4th.   I don't see the CDC responding to NCL's request by May.

It's hard to draw comparisons between airplanes and ships.  Ships are sailing now, their mechanicals are working.  Airplanes are a completely different beast mechanically.   It's not like they took a ship out of the water and left it for 3 months.

In the case of cruise ships it's crew that's the long pole in the tent.  

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IF and its a big IF at this point the CDC goes along with NCL plan, I would be upset if I had a large family with multiple children under 16 and had made a reservation only to have it cancelled because of the proposed vaccination rules. 

I would be hard pressed to want to rebook a cruise with NCL at that point. 

Looking at the data we have now, small children are not a high risk group nor are they major vectors of spreading the virus.

I like what Royal is doing better with their restarts in the Caribbean 

 

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24 minutes ago, UNCFanatik said:

IF and its a big IF at this point the CDC goes along with NCL plan, I would be upset if I had a large family with multiple children under 16 and had made a reservation only to have it cancelled because of the proposed vaccination rules. 

I would be hard pressed to want to rebook a cruise with NCL at that point. 

Looking at the data we have now, small children are not a high risk group nor are they major vectors of spreading the virus.

I like what Royal is doing better with their restarts in the Caribbean 

 

Would you be any happier that it was just outright cancelled because there are no cruises running?

I think NCL is looking at it as "We can sail vaccinated only or not at all".

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30 minutes ago, jticarruthers said:

Would you be any happier that it was just outright cancelled because there are no cruises running?

I think NCL is looking at it as "We can sail vaccinated only or not at all".

I get it. They are bleeding cash and need to get up and running. I just think its a short sighted plan.

Again, as NCL pointed toward data in their petition to the CDC they could have pointed to the data on small children and risk and spread as well. They could have copied Royal plan for those under 16. 

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30 minutes ago, UNCFanatik said:

I get it. They are bleeding cash and need to get up and running. I just think its a short sighted plan.

Again, as NCL pointed toward data in their petition to the CDC they could have pointed to the data on small children and risk and spread as well. They could have copied Royal plan for those under 16. 

Given the CDC’s lack of common sense, NCL decided to play to the CDC’s own guidance that vaccinated people can gather with very little risk. They decided not to muddy the waters by including children under vaccination age.

I agree with your point about the data showing children are low risk but common sense has no place at the CDC’s table. I believe that is the reason NCL is taking the black and white approach.

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5 hours ago, twangster said:

It's hard to draw comparisons between airplanes and ships.  Ships are sailing now, their mechanicals are working.  Airplanes are a completely different beast mechanically.   It's not like they took a ship out of the water and left it for 3 months.

In the case of cruise ships it's crew that's the long pole in the tent.  

But the question no is asking is this, has Royal Caribbean, NCL, or Carnival been able to acquire their own personal stock pile of vaccines or are they partially or totally dependent on crew members getting vaccinated on their own in their own countries?

We are focusing so much attention on the US which is doing a great job rolling out the vaccines, but if we look at the EU and other nations around the world they are clearly struggling in their rollout.  Some countries are just now receiving their first shipment of vaccines.  Also again working in the airline industry I know the CDC and WHO do not recognize Sputnik V and CoronaVac (China's vaccine) as a valid because they did not through all the proper steps during their trail phase. So take for example Iceland (and ther are other countries) which is open no quarantine necessary if you are fully vaccinated.  But they will only accept your vaccination card if the vaccines on the card is a vaccine that has been approved as being valid by the WHO.  We don't have to worry about that here in the US for obvious reasons.  However both Russia and China have started shipping their vaccines around the world because it is difficult for some countries to get Pfizer, or J&J and they would rather take Sputnik V or CoronaVac instead of waiting for Pfizer to have availability.  Another question is this will the CDC allow accept Sputnik V as a valid vaccine for crew members? Now this isn't to say at some point in the future these vaccines will be accepted and prove themselves to be just as effective as for example Pfizer but for now they are not recognized valid vaccines and US airlines can not accept them if a country requires the airline to check for either a negative COVID test or a valid vaccine card.

If crew is the long pole in the tent what does that make the vaccines especially if Royal does not have its own CDC or WHO approved stock pile it can administer to crew members who are not Americans? We are all focusing on America but as we all know crew members come from all over the world. 

When I did the comparision it wasn't meant to be taken so literally each industry has its challenges and while cruise ship might be ready to sail there are other factors that could put a damper on things.

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1 hour ago, JasonOasis said:

But the question no is asking is this, has Royal Caribbean, NCL, or Carnival been able to acquire their own personal stock pile of vaccines or are they partially or totally dependent on crew members getting vaccinated on their own in their own countries?

Yes.

Several weeks ago as crew arrived on Odyssey they were quarantined land side, tested, cleared for the ship, vaccinated and isolated on board for a period before being let loose.  I'm sure they are using a vaccine recognized by Israel, likely AstraZeneca which is approved by the WHO but I don't know that's what they are using for sure.

Fast forward a month and I wouldn't be surprised if they have acquired enough WHO approved vaccines to cover a lot more crew than they need for a limited restart.  That's the thing, they only need a few thousand crew for a couple of restart ships.  By the time restart crew are cycling off their contracts it will be September or October and the vaccine will be given out like halloween candy by that point.

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17 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

All RC port states offer vaccinations to all 16+ except:

April 15 - Washington (not that that really matters since Alaska cruises are toast), California

April 19 - Massachusetts (also a wash due to Canada's rules)

April 27 - Maryland

May 1 - Hawaii (again, Canada), New Jersey

 

Not sure on Puerto Rico

 

NJ updated ours yesterday, we are now April 19 for 16+

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46 minutes ago, Reigert2008 said:

President Biden is moving the deadline or all adults to be vaccine eligible to April 19th.  A lot of states are already ahead of this, but this is still pretty cool.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/06/politics/coronavirus-vaccine-deadline-biden/index.html

That statement sounds a lot like .. President Biden closed the barn door after the horse ran out.

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10 minutes ago, JeffB said:

Yes, but when is Biden going to tell his HHS Secretary to get with the program and can the out dated, burdensome and irrelevant (IVO vaccine success) CDC CSO?

I don't think President has that kind of effect. Trump tried and it didnt work to change CDC policy.

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18 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

All RC port states offer vaccinations to all 16+ except:

April 15 - Washington (not that that really matters since Alaska cruises are toast), California

April 19 - Massachusetts (also a wash due to Canada's rules)

April 27 - Maryland

May 1 - Hawaii (again, Canada), New Jersey

 

Not sure on Puerto Rico

 

I have friends in their 20’s getting vaccinated in PR 

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27 minutes ago, Matt said:

I don't think President has that kind of effect. Trump tried and it didnt work to change CDC policy.

Disagree, it moved us from the NSO to the CSO and might have continued the movement but for a change of leadership. I think the only reason the CSO even came about was pressure from WH.

Admittedly the CSO was a bust but i think thats because the pressure stopped.

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