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Interesting goings on with CLIA and the UK (global travel taskforce)


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42 minutes ago, Ray said:

If as has always been mentioned both shots of vaccine are required for it to work correctly and protect us to the best of its capabilities how can we as a country ( UK ) plan International travel when most people will only have had the 1 shot come june? 

Come June half of uk adults will have had both jabs.  I am also presuming that there will be some sort of vaccine passport as well.  Also, those travelling abroad would be the vaccinated people and social distancing/mask wearing also still required by countries with travelling corridors set up.  I think there may also be a route abroad for this with negative covid tests still (but with differenttravel corridors - you know how the government likes to keep things complicated)

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  • 3 weeks later...

I'm a Brit living in Belgium. I was disappointed at first to see the UK government unsurprisingly opted for UK only cruising to UK only residents this summer.

Given over 50% of EU citizens will be vaccinated fully by start of August I hope it will allow the UK gov to drop this UK only rule and also seeing cruise lines amend their offerings perhaps to go to Iceland or Norwegian fjords. 

 

 

 

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23 hours ago, Morganno said:

I'm a Brit living in Belgium. I was disappointed at first to see the UK government unsurprisingly opted for UK only cruising to UK only residents this summer.

Given over 50% of EU citizens will be vaccinated fully by start of August I hope it will allow the UK gov to drop this UK only rule and also seeing cruise lines amend their offerings perhaps to go to Iceland or Norwegian fjords. 

 

 

 

Seeing as many European Countries infection rate is currently going in the wrong direction not sure how the UK Government could have made any other decision. It's still unlikely that UK citizens will be allowed to travel to many parts of Europe for much of the summer.

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The science is solid on the risk of air travel as a means of introducing SARS2 and it's variants into countries that have obtained low levels of circulating virus. The reality is that an infected person can have a negative COVID test before boarding an aircraft because their viral load was too low to be detectible (the incubation period), then, once in country, develop mild symptoms or be asymptomatic and spread whatever it is that person is carrying. 

Public Health officials around the globe are going to hold off on green-lighting travelers coming from foreign destinations by air, sea or traveling by ground conveyance across boarders, I'm guessing, well into the fall when, it is anticipated, most countries can see a level of herd immunity that (1) is defined by low levels of circulating virus (low R values and positivity in the 3-5% range) and (2) health care facilities have returned to a pre-pandemic baseline of seriously ill patients to include those admitted with a diagnosis of COVID.

This reality is starting to soak in for me. There are simply too many obstacles for Americans who want to cruise from Europe to overcome to make that a realistic hope. There are, of course, a lot of wild cards that could change that circumstance for the good or further toward the bad, but right now cruising from Europe with port stops along the way for Americans isn't looking good.   

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6 minutes ago, JeffB said:

There are, of course, a lot of wild cards that could change that circumstance for the good or further toward the bad, but right now cruising from Europe with port stops along the way for Americans isn't looking good.   

I don't think you're wrong, especially as things stand today. However, once Europe starts getting access to the vaccine like UK and US have had, I think things will rapidly change.

We've been extremely fortunate here in US to get the lion's share of the vaccine first. 

My hope is once vaccine is readily available in many other countries, we can start to see travel barriers come down.

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17 minutes ago, Matt said:

 However, once Europe starts getting access to the vaccine like UK and US have had, I think things will rapidly change.

We've been extremely fortunate here in US to get the lion's share of the vaccine first. 

My hope is once vaccine is readily available in many other countries, we can start to see travel barriers come down.

I agree @Matt, but it is interesting to me that although EU seems to behind the US as far as vaccinations go, they seem poised to start cruising before the US. 

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3 hours ago, FManke said:

I agree @Matt, but it is interesting to me that although EU seems to behind the US as far as vaccinations go, they seem poised to start cruising before the US. 

That's the thing. Almost a contradiction in terms. We have rapidly rising case numbers in most of Europe and plenty of cruising going on out of ports there (an in Asia). Not full on cruising but it's cruising. What's more, is that I read that since large ship cruise lines have been operating on a regular basis there, there have been 19 confirmed COVID cases NINETEEN out of what is being reported as 400K passengers. That's an infection rate of 0.006%

Obviously the safe to sail protocols that are being used apparently consistently among the cruise ships that are operating are working very well. That's all well and good but it doesn't matter to government officials making public health policy. We've been down this road. We know for a fact that SARS2 is much more transmissible than influenza (I've read 4 to 8x). Based on the increased transmissibility of SARS2 v H1N1 concerns, I'm consistently reading a significant amount of worry regarding the potential downsides, from both a health and political standpoint, of greater mobility and the increased human contact that entails. Fear of stoking COVID outbreaks permeates health policy thinking. That's the fly in the ointment right now and I don't see an end to it until vaccines produce the kind of measurable declines in COVID metrics I mentioned above. 

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On 4/2/2021 at 8:22 PM, JeffB said:

That's the thing. Almost a contradiction in terms. We have rapidly rising case numbers in most of Europe and plenty of cruising going on out of ports there (an in Asia). Not full on cruising but it's cruising. What's more, is that I read that since large ship cruise lines have been operating on a regular basis there, there have been 19 confirmed COVID cases NINETEEN out of what is being reported as 400K passengers. That's an infection rate of 0.006%

Obviously the safe to sail protocols that are being used apparently consistently among the cruise ships that are operating are working very well. That's all well and good but it doesn't matter to government officials making public health policy. We've been down this road. We know for a fact that SARS2 is much more transmissible than influenza (I've read 4 to 8x). Based on the increased transmissibility of SARS2 v H1N1 concerns, I'm consistently reading a significant amount of worry regarding the potential downsides, from both a health and political standpoint, of greater mobility and the increased human contact that entails. Fear of stoking COVID outbreaks permeates health policy thinking. That's the fly in the ointment right now and I don't see an end to it until vaccines produce the kind of measurable declines in COVID metrics I mentioned above. 

I will be cruising this summer from many European locations.

Belgium will have enough vaccines to fully vaccinate 50% of the adult population by end June and that is only taking into account 1 out of 4 suppliers who can commit to supply.

 

AZ, J&J and Moderna have not yet given their supply details yet so expect this number to rise perhaps even up to 60% fully vaccinated by end June in time for summer season. I think the Cruise companies might regret moving their ships to cold and wet summer cruises in the UK. 

Not even thinking of two other vaccines about to announce vaccines in Q2, Novavax and Curavax. 

the future looks bright for European Cruises this summer with no CDC to worry about. People might be best hanging fire on UK British Isles cruises to see what's out there in the next couple of months. 

 

Like I have said before if that is Europe wide then we are talking about potentially 200 million fully vaccinated clients in the EU come July.  Cruise lines would be very foolish not to want to tap into that market. 

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15 minutes ago, Morganno said:

I will be cruising this summer from many European locations.

I hope you are right.

When things appeared to be going swimmingly in the UK and generally in Europe and European countries, especially Italy, Spain and Greece, seemed set to re-open airports and cruise ports to American citizens, I booked a Celebrity Reflection cruise out of Amsterdam with a Norwegian Fjord itinerary departing July 11th.

That was then, this is now. I was almost certain cruising would resume in Europe before it would in the US. I have cruises from PEV booked in June (not likely to happen) and August (at risk). The cruises from US ports through July and into early August are almost certainly at risk given the CDC's insistence on executing what amounts to ridiculously complex over-kill given vaccine availability that will render most of the crazy stuff they are requiring unnecessary.  I think this is what parties who have commented in the last 24h appear to be so aggravated about. 

Smokeybandit mentioned that the lawyers will be involved in these contracts the CDC is requiring between the lines and port authorities and that will induce hardships for all parties involved in this phased return. Still, I'm going to wait for a couple of weeks and see what transpires, assuming we get some details regarding progress toward completing Phase 2A from the CDC, port authorities and the major lines. The CDC talks about transparency and honesty with Americans. Fine. Show it to me in the next 2w.  

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