Allure Oversold... Again.

[TexanTwoStep]

14 hours ago, twangster said:

Sooner or later these practices will motivate Congress to get involved and we'll see a bill to protect consumers.  

Congress will do something when it's inconvenient for a Congress person or their family lol

[twangster]

36 minutes ago, TexanTwoStep said:

Congress will do something when it's inconvenient for a Congress person or their family lol

Exactly.

[BMW Hoosier]

17 hours ago, twangster said:

Unless you are booked on a B2B already, or another ship, or have a hip surgery scheduled.   

You have totally missed the point. If some people are willing to give it up voluntarily, then what is the problem? Have we seen mass (or any) cases of involuntarily denied boardings? 

[twangster]

56 minutes ago, BMW Hoosier said:

You have totally missed the point. If some people are willing to give it up voluntarily, then what is the problem? Have we seen mass (or any) cases of involuntarily denied boardings? 

0.1% of cruisers post on internet forums. 

[BMW Hoosier]

3 hours ago, twangster said:

0.1% of cruisers post on internet forums. 

I am not saying it hasn't happened but you don't have any evidence that it has either, do you? And it's not even .1%. 

[twangster]

26 minutes ago, BMW Hoosier said:

I am not saying it hasn't happened but you don't have any evidence that it has either, do you? And it's not even .1%. 

And yet there are stories of "Royal cancelled my cruise!"  that are reported, just not explicitly tracked back to a known oversold scenario. 

[AlmondFarmer]

4 hours ago, twangster said:

And yet there are stories of "Royal cancelled my cruise!"  that are reported

Lots of reports of this from March 2020 into summer of 2021. 
 

Fake news? 

[RafaellaCG]

On 5/9/2023 at 2:54 PM, KristiZ said:

It's just as likely to be far less nefarious than you all are suggesting. 

Airlines oversell, certainly. But I can tell you that a surprising non-zero number of times there was a different reason for a denied boarding. Like someone on the prior flight peed on the seat and the whole row had to be removed from inventory. Or someone stole the seatbelts in a row and there were no spares, so those seats were unusable. (I have more stories -- 14 years as a front-line airline employee!)

Could just be that Allure is aging and there are plumbing issues or electrical problems or whatever, that the onboard maintenance team is struggling to get under control. So some sailings have a block of cabins that are unusable for whatever reason.

I find there are far fewer complex plots and way more examples of general incompetence in the world. Everywhere.

It's happened on three ships in the span of a year (that I counted) on multiple sailings of each. Hard to believe it's just happenstance. 

[twangster]

Honestly I believe it's just that people are not cancelling last minute like they used to.  

Royal is waiting until close to the sail date just in case the cancellations occur.  Some weeks they do, some weeks they don't.  For the weeks when the cancellations don't materialize they are forced to deal with it.  

I suspect there used to be a lot of local, drive to cruise type that are frequent cruisers, maybe casino comps where they don't have a lot to lose by cancelling.  Cruise fares used to be lower so it was easier to accept walking away from a cruise.

Now there are more newbies and people are paying higher rates.  With more skin in the game less people are cancelling at the last minute.  

[Bmac]

On 5/8/2023 at 5:55 PM, Happy Cruisers said:

It is interesting that this is cropping up at a time when the company has apparently rolled out a new revenue management strategy - the text below is taken from Matt's article from last Thursday (5/4/23) summarizing RC's recent earnings call and the emphasis on the new revenue management mention is my own.  If one believes correlation can mean causation, then this overbooking trend does indeed seem to be a feature of the new revenue management model.  To be clear, I think most of the inventory discussion below relates to periods further out than what some are seeing in oversold situations; rather, I think the interesting tidbit is their apparent newly-found sophistication in revenue management. 

A question was asked about how booking and inventory will be handled in the future, and Mr. Liberty talked about their process.

"We used to kind of put everything out there and all the suites would be sold basically right off the bat. And then you would kind of work your way down to the inside cabins," he said in answering the question.

"While now, we we hold back inventory, and we release it based off of our what are much more sophisticated revenue management models that we have today."

 

This is typical of modern business models when the new CEO who was the former CFO takes control of things, especially after a situation such as covid where these cruise lines are all now on their back foot financially. I'm reading new revenue strategy as "let's use a play from the airlines playbook". We'll over book cruises to make sure that we have all the seats filled and then make cancellations at the last minute once we have the full cruise fare. So basically they're increasing their immediate revenue with over sold bookings and then cancelling bookings and offering a percentage allowance or future cruise credit for the inconvenience. Meanwhile they already have your money allowing them to to use it for previous debt or to accrue interest while in their accounts. Every little bit counts when you're watching the bottom line.

[anneglubis]

1 hour ago, Bmac said:

This is typical of modern business models when the new CEO who was the former CFO takes control of things...

I did not know the CEO started in audit into finance into CFO. Now you have my interest. My personal experience with CFOs trying to meddle in customer strategy decisions has been, to be kind, poor.  It's possible a CFO would make this kind of ridiculous model. 

Now, I just need to see some data on involuntary cancellations and customer sentiment/loyalty. I'm headed to vacation today. Maybe I'll have some time to snoop around. But I'd still love for people to share what they have: news stories, I guess, if no real industry data.

[USFFrank]

1 hour ago, Bmac said:

This is typical of modern business models when the new CEO who was the former CFO takes control of things, especially after a situation such as covid where these cruise lines are all now on their back foot financially. I'm reading new revenue strategy as "let's use a play from the airlines playbook". We'll over book cruises to make sure that we have all the seats filled and then make cancellations at the last minute once we have the full cruise fare. So basically they're increasing their immediate revenue with over sold bookings and then cancelling bookings and offering a percentage allowance or future cruise credit for the inconvenience. Meanwhile they already have your money allowing them to to use it for previous debt or to accrue interest while in their accounts. Every little bit counts when you're watching the bottom line.

Yep, I had a feeling something like this along with the higher prices for everything was going to happen. As much as I would like have more cruises listed on my upcoming sailings list, it's getting harder to justify the costs to do that. Same goes for land based vacations.

[anneglubis]

26 minutes ago, USFFrank said:

Yep, I had a feeling something like this along with the higher prices for everything was going to happen. As much as I would like have more cruises listed on my upcoming sailings list, it's getting harder to justify the costs to do that. Same goes for land based vacations.

European RV caravan anyone?

[OCSC Mike]

32 minutes ago, USFFrank said:

As much as I would like have more cruises listed on my upcoming sailings list, it's getting harder to justify the costs to do that.

Amazing how quickly prices have skyrocketed. PC had $129 4-night Indy cruises as recently as October in the GGG sale. I fully expected Wonder to be a bit overpriced as the newest ship (for now), but the other ships are up there too.

Everyone just has to decide if the new prices are worth it to them or not.

[teddy]

I believe the age of cheap cruising is coming to an end.
 

We have two weeks at the end of May/beginning of June where we could take a cruise and were looking for last minute deals.   I think we’re still looking at prices through the “restart lens”.  It’s hard to justify paying both airfare and the cruise prices on such short notice.  Both have jumped substantially.  

[OCSC Mike]

18 minutes ago, teddy said:

I believe the age of cheap cruising is coming to an end.
 

We have two weeks at the end of May/beginning of June where we could take a cruise and were looking for last minute deals.   I think we’re still looking at prices through the “restart lens”.  It’s hard to justify paying both airfare and the cruise prices on such short notice.  Both have jumped substantially.  

Yep. I've moved on from what I used to consider "good" deals to what I now deem "acceptable" deals. Not having to fly certainly helps in my case and we're not ready to stop cruising (I just booked one today for next March) but it's certainly an adjustment.

[LizzyBee23]

In the group for the sailing before ours (5/21), which is the sailing after the one in the news story that started this thread... Apparently cancellation offers also went out for the 5/21 cruise. Seems like this may be the norm for Allure over the summer. Wonder if any of the other ships are experiencing this with such frequency.

[Ampurp85]

I was looking at cruise prices based on restart values. I remember paying $400-500 for solo 4/5 night sailings. Then being from Chicago I wouldn't have to pay exorbitant flights to get to Florida ports. Now its $1k for a solo 4night sailing on a ship like Indy or Liberty and I cannot justify anything. 

To add in that prior to 2023, people were still booking a lot of cruises based on pandemic rules and such. So, the cancellations were more. I do think this is a record boon, not the forward going standard. The financial climate will change and Royal needs to be prepared for that.

[Bmac]

I think the economy will eventually sort things out much like what is happening in the auto sales industry right now. When we had all of those "supply shortages" the dealers were naming their prices on vehicles, some having $50-100K "Market" adjustments. Now with the "supply" issue mostly behind us and interest rates rising the dealers are up against it not being able to sell vehicles at this point due to their own greed and the current economic climate. I think what happened with cruising is that once we were clear of all the covid protocols people wanted to spend their money like drunken sailors (pardon the pun). Im seeing a lot of posts on media sites about how much cruising has become the new way to vacation and a lot of posts of bad behavior on cruise ships. That leads me to believe there are a lot of cruise rookies trying out cruising only to have a bad experience and that will eventually lead to less bookings. The bad behavior I would think are people who have never cruised and think that they can behave on a cruise ship the way that they behave on land. Only time will tell. We booked a 10 day Hawaii cruise back in January and that cruise last I looked was almost double the price. We just looked at booking a short 4-5 day cruise and the prices were what a seven day cruise was six months ago. So our next vacation is an all inclusive resort, the cost for the resort and airfare is in line with what a seven day cruise was months ago. Not giving up on cruising but gonna wait and see what happens in the near future.

[kspam]

We are sailing on Allure in June.  We booked it last year, using our "cruise points" from 2 canceled pandemic cruises.  This one cost us almost nothing.  I think our airfare was more expensive.

 

We usually fly to Florida but I hate the "climate" there now so we chose to leave out of Texas.  

[OCSC Mike]

18 minutes ago, kspam said:

I hate the "climate" there

Oh come on, it's nice here for at least 3 or 4 weeks a year.

[TXcruzer]

On 5/10/2023 at 12:51 PM, BMW Hoosier said:

You have totally missed the point. If some people are willing to give it up voluntarily, then what is the problem? Have we seen mass (or any) cases of involuntarily denied boardings? 

yes, there have been instances of IDB; at lease 2 in the last few months that have been discussed heavily on travel forums.

[kspam]

23 hours ago, OCSC Mike said:

Oh come on, it's nice here for at least 3 or 4 weeks a year.

not weather   The guv

[OCSC Mike]

15 minutes ago, kspam said:

not weather   The guv

My bad, The physical climate is pretty crappy too.

[anneglubis]

I live in Florida and love all the climates . But the cruise ships aren't governed by Florida. Don't let that keep you from coming!  We'd be happy to have you sail from here. 

I can admit, though, that the bad behavior on ships is more prevalent on our Caribbean cruises than I see in Alaska or Europe. 

@Bmac we are considering Hawaii cruise. But we're only interested in the Hawaii portion, not the sail to/from LA. Do you know if it's possible to hop on/hop off at the islands? 

[smokeybandit]

15 hours ago, kspam said:

not weather   The guv

Lightning isn't going to strike you if you step foot on Florida soil. You can make it from the airport to the port before you start to melt 

[OCSC Mike]

1 hour ago, smokeybandit said:

Lightning isn't going to strike you if you step foot on Florida soil.

Agreed. in my personal experience, you have to live here for a decade or so before lightning hits you (or your house at least), blows up your a/c unit, and fries a bunch of your electronics. Fortunately the house itself was OK and our homeowners insurance was incredibly generous in their reimbursements.

[Bmac]

9 hours ago, anneglubis said:

I live in Florida and love all the climates . But the cruise ships aren't governed by Florida. Don't let that keep you from coming!  We'd be happy to have you sail from here. 

I can admit, though, that the bad behavior on ships is more prevalent on our Caribbean cruises than I see in Alaska or Europe. 

@Bmac we are considering Hawaii cruise. But we're only interested in the Hawaii portion, not the sail to/from LA. Do you know if it's possible to hop on/hop off at the islands? 

Sorry I don't know the answer to that. This will be our first time for Hawaii. We're on Brilliance out of Vancouver on September 24. Looking at available cruises it looks like they are all one way either to or from Vancouver. 

[smokeybandit]

The only times RC stops in Hawaii is for repositioning cruises.

[twangster]

10 hours ago, anneglubis said:

I live in Florida and love all the climates . But the cruise ships aren't governed by Florida. Don't let that keep you from coming!  We'd be happy to have you sail from here. 

I can admit, though, that the bad behavior on ships is more prevalent on our Caribbean cruises than I see in Alaska or Europe. 

@Bmac we are considering Hawaii cruise. But we're only interested in the Hawaii portion, not the sail to/from LA. Do you know if it's possible to hop on/hop off at the islands? 

The only mass market cruise ship in the world that can carry passengers between the Hawaiian islands without starting or stopping in another country is the NCL Pride of America.  

There are federal laws that prevent all foreign flagged cruise ships from doing the same.  

[anneglubis]

2 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

The only times RC stops in Hawaii is for repositioning cruises.

Is it possible I'm thinking of another cruise line? I know it started in LA (yuch), went to Hawaii, then back past LA to Mexico (not my cup of tea), then up to LA (and we're back to yuch). It is a free offering, so maybe it's from another place I've been known to gamble .

I'll check when I get back home. A good pal o' mine is a cruise director on Virgin Ocean. I'll ask him about those rules, too. Bbiab with interesting intel.

[smokeybandit]

21 minutes ago, anneglubis said:

Is it possible I'm thinking of another cruise line? I know it started in LA (yuch), went to Hawaii, then back past LA to Mexico (not my cup of tea), then up to LA (and we're back to yuch). It is a free offering, so maybe it's from another place I've been known to gamble .

I'll check when I get back home. A good pal o' mine is a cruise director on Virgin Ocean. I'll ask him about those rules, too. Bbiab with interesting intel.

Norwegian is the only major cruise line that sails Hawaii.  And those aren't cheap since they have to follow US labor practices

[kspam]

a friend of ours did a Hawaii cruise.  Said there was no casino on the ship?

[anneglubis]

Bah. No can join midcruise. 

And apparently there is a casino on this one, because the deal also comes with free play. They might shut it down while in the islands, just gambling in the lower 48 and Mexico. Anyway, it was carnival. 

Ok. Time for sleep here in Italy. Gotta get up good and early to wash the dishes, lug our suitcases from the 3rd floor, get cash for our tourist tax, and take the trash down to some piazza. I'm a bit over VRBO today. But I see I'm way off topic. 

I surely hope I get a good deal to be booted off the cruise this week. I'm not looking forward to 10 days with the SIL.

[steverk]

2 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

Norwegian is the only major cruise line that sails Hawaii.  And those aren't cheap since they have to follow US labor practices

 

2 hours ago, kspam said:

a friend of ours did a Hawaii cruise.  Said there was no casino on the ship?

I took Pride of America in October 2019. As stated earlier,  it's the only ship sailing Hawaii without sailing 4+ days to reach a foreign port. Awesome itinerary.  Not so great ship.

Start with the positive.  You start in Honolulu, overnight in Maui and  Kauai. 2 days on the big island-1 in Hilo the other in Kona. There's simply no better way to see the 4 major islands.

Now the not so good. Everything about the ship is below average. Food, service, decor, amenities and entertainment.  As mentioned,  there isn't a casino on board.

By the end of my cruise,  I really enjoyed Hawaii, but was more than ready to get back on Royal.

[smokeybandit]

Pride of America, the only cruise ship that sunk before it even was launched.

 

https://professionalmariner.com/new-cruise-ship-with-troubled-history-sinks-at-german-shipyard/

[kspam]

On 5/13/2023 at 5:53 PM, OCSC Mike said:

My bad, The physical climate is pretty crappy too.

Texas is not much better but it was closer and cheaper.  

 

Last year we had 2 flights.  My luggage did not make the 2nd flight and I had no shoes and not many clothes the entire 7 days

 

[OCSC Mike]

9 hours ago, kspam said:

Texas is not much better but it was closer and cheaper.  

Last year we had 2 flights.  My luggage did not make the 2nd flight and I had no shoes and not many clothes the entire 7 days

Don't blame you. I won't even drive 3 hours to Ft. Lauderdale let alone fly (unless it's for Alaska). I put significant value in only having to drive an hour to PC.

And props to you for carrying on after that luggage debacle. Sorry you had to go through that.

[twangster]

15 minutes ago, OCSC Mike said:

Don't blame you. I won't even drive 3 hours to Ft. Lauderdale let alone fly (unless it's for Alaska). I put significant value in only having to drive an hour to PC.

One word.   Brightline 

I'm saving $3k on business class to Singapore by flying from Miami instead of MCO.  By then Brightline will be in service so I may use it to fly from Miami.  With $3k in savings I've got some wiggle room.   

[OCSC Mike]

27 minutes ago, twangster said:

One word.   Brightline

It's still not nearly as convenient as hopping in my own car and driving an hour but we have looked into it. It still takes just as long as driving (I have to get to the nearest Brightline station and then the train ride itself isn't lightning fast). Matt lives extremely close to me and has been using Lyft to PC and it costs about the same as parking at PC.  Have considered that too but I'm really fine with my current routine.

All that said, saving 3K as part of a long flight to Asia for a cfruise is, of course, a very different story. My entire 7-night cruise never costs $3k total, lol, even on Wonder.