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1 hour ago, monctonguy said:

Somebody somewhere, please give an update.....we all know you know at this point schedule wise what's going on....

I would guess they know that the inaugural won’t happen. But if they just cancel one sailing, people will rush to book the one after it, and so on and so on. So waiting means they can cancel as many as they need to all at once. 

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He's sneaky like that.  Probably waited for you to post 😉 

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2 hours ago, Andrew72681 said:

I would guess they know that the inaugural won’t happen. But if they just cancel one sailing, people will rush to book the one after it, and so on and so on. So waiting means they can cancel as many as they need to all at once. 

I just hope they cancel before final payment date.

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5 minutes ago, Jill said:

"While other cruise ships due for delivery this year have seen delays due to the pandemic, Odyssey of the Seas’ debut has not yet been affected."

That simply means they have announced the delay. 

So if you can build a ship on the same schedule with 1/3 of the labor why don't they do that all the time and reduce the cost of the ship?

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2 minutes ago, twangster said:

"While other cruise ships due for delivery this year have seen delays due to the pandemic, Odyssey of the Seas’ debut has not yet been affected."

That simply means they have announced the delay. 

So if you can build a ship on the same schedule with 1/3 of the labor why don't they do that all the time and reduce the cost of the ship?

As always the voice of reason. 🙁😉 I’m not on her until October 2021. I feel good about my date. I hope a miracle happens for you @twangster 😀

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2 hours ago, twangster said:

"While other cruise ships due for delivery this year have seen delays due to the pandemic, Odyssey of the Seas’ debut has not yet been affected."

That simply means they have announced the delay. 

So if you can build a ship on the same schedule with 1/3 of the labor why don't they do that all the time and reduce the cost of the ship?

It’s like when analysts claim that Apple’s latest product is delayed, when it’s never been announced so  technically can’t possibly be.

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13 hours ago, Jill said:

Well this still gives me some hope...I would find it strange that a shipyard building massive ships wroth 100"s of millions......would be able to lie/hide the fact they are behind and wont meet the deadline.

 

I know in my business..I cant do that without repercussions…..perhaps the shipyard is above that but for now I will take a glimmer of hope she might be ready.

 

Now, will I be able to get there is the bigger question at this point perhaps.

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During the Royal investor's call a few weeks ago the company clearly stated they expect 2020 and 2021 new builds to be delayed.  

I'm pretty confident that any announcements that Meyer Werft makes are made after checking with their customers - the cruise lines.  Meyer Werft won't make a major announcement declaring a delay that will cause massive disruption and grief for their customer, the cruise line.  If Meyer Werft were to boldly state the actual date any given ship is estimated to now complete it would send guests scrambling to make changes while the cruise line wouldn't be ready for the onslaught and media reaction never mind investor speculation.

Royal's in a tough spot.  If they announce an official delay or new estimated date for completion they instantly have to deal with thousands of impacted reservations and that means refunds for many.  Meanwhile if the virus goes away this summer and they can triple the work effort they could conceivably finish on time.  I know that isn't likely to happen but Royal is ever the optimist.

We've often seen during hurricanes that Royal waits until the last possible moment often announcing changes much later than guests would like.  

I don't expect this to be much different.  The writing is on the wall, everyone acknowledges that something must change but Royal won't make any official announcements until well past what guests who are involved would like to see.   Waiting until after final payment due date means the injection of millions of dollars into the company.  What do you think they'll do?

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1 hour ago, twangster said:

I pretty confident that any announcements that Meyer Werft makes are made after checking with their customers - the cruise lines.  Meyer Werft won't make a major announcement declaring a delay that will cause massive disruption and grief for their customer, the cruise line.  If Meyer Werft were to boldly state the actual date any given ship is estimated to now complete it would send guests scrambling to make changes while the cruise line wouldn't be ready for the onslaught and media reaction never mind investor speculation.

There is one situation where they could not be the case. Often times when issuing guidance for a future quarter a company will reference something happening later than expected that would cause a material decrease in expected revenue in that following quarter. So for a ship that would probably be transferred late Q3/ early Q4 if it were going to cause an adverse change to the balance sheet we might hear of it. 

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Its sad if that's what it comes to and that's how they roll it out...

 

At this point, we will walk away from our deposit rather than pay the full balance and hope/pray/worry that all the other pieces fall in place. And then if they dont, the headache of rebooking hotels and flights etc.....just not worth the hassle...as much as it will suck to miss what was going to be probably our best and most exciting cruise yet for various reasons...:61_sob:

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43 minutes ago, Andrew72681 said:

There is one situation where they could not be the case. Often times when issuing guidance for a future quarter a company will reference something happening later than expected that would cause a material decrease in expected revenue in that following quarter. So for a ship that would probably be transferred late Q3/ early Q4 if it were going to cause an adverse change to the balance sheet we might hear of it. 

Meyer Werft is a private company that doesn't have to issue public guidance.  

Royal did cover it for their investors all but saying it is delayed, instead they stated they expect it to be delayed.  

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3 minutes ago, twangster said:

Meyer Werft is a private company that doesn't have to issue public guidance.  

Royal did cover it for their investors all but saying it is delayed, instead they stated they expect it to be delayed.  

Wasn’t even thinking about them being a private company. There’s so few left. 
So maybe we just need a mole in the board meetings 😎

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5 hours ago, monctonguy said:

Well this still gives me some hope...I would find it strange that a shipyard building massive ships wroth 100"s of millions......would be able to lie/hide the fact they are behind and wont meet the deadline.

It may be written in their shipbuilder contracts that if they can't meet deadlines there are monetarily penalized, i.e. Royal gets a break on the costs.

The shipbuilder may in fact be on time but it will be all the finishing touches that could cause the delay.  Similarly to Allure's AMPlification, some of the interior furnishings and extras could be sitting and waiting for the ship to be floated out so they can begin that step of the process.  If those contractors are impacted by COVID-19 it could take longer to completely finish the ship even after it has left Meyer Werft.  We don't know how much leeway they left between the anticipated delivery date and the inaugural sailing.  I remember from the Oasis AMP that they had contractors still working on the finishing touches as it was sailing back to the US.  Royal may be planning to push back the first sailing because they anticipate those last minute preparations may not be completed and that's why they are alluding to the delays already.  We won't know for sure until they tell us, so all we can do is speculate.  

There's about 50ish days until final payment for the inaugural and that's about the same time that the deadline to CWC for a full FCC for the nonrefundable deposits, so we shall see what plays out between now and then.

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56 minutes ago, AshleyDillo said:

Royal may be planning to push back the first sailing because they anticipate those last minute preparations may not be completed and that's why they are alluding to the delays already.  We won't know for sure until they tell us, so all we can do is speculate.  

Or they may not be ready to click the transfer button and deposit almost a  billion dollars so they've already told MW not to rush and that they wouldn't enforce any penalties for late delivery (which would probably already have been nullified in the contract by a force majeure clause)

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  • 2 weeks later...

Depending on forthcoming cruising regulations Royal might even be happy about a delay. Delivery means the remaining 80% of the price must be paid - also crew and port fees on top of that. P&O and Saga Cruises are currently  doing everything to not have to accept delivery of Iona and Spirit of Adventure.

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38 minutes ago, Johnson84 said:

Two fires in the shipyard where this ship is being built, I'm staying off this ship.

Fires in shipyards happen often.  That's why they have their own fire departments.

When Monarch of the Seas was being built in 1990 a welder's torch caught some insulation on fire.  She was nearly lost.  They ended up taking a section of Majesty who was being built in another slip and replaced the damaged section of Monarch with the section from Majesty.  She went on to enjoy 22 years of service with Royal.  

AIDAnova, Norwegian Joy, Costa Smeralda and Carnival Mardì Gras all recently had fires during construction at the various shipyards involved. 

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