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17 minutes ago, ErinD said:

If you were a gambler such as myself, would you go for booking a Christmas cruise or wait for one over New Years for this year?

I know, I know, it's very likely neither will go...but, again, I'm a gambler ūüėČ

Like many are contemplating, including myself, book a last minute cruise once we know for sure that it's happening.

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4 minutes ago, princevaliantus said:

Like many are contemplating, including myself, book a last minute cruise once we know for sure that it's happening.

My only thought is if they are going to limit capacity, will there be availability once we know for sure?

So many questions. I wish I had a crystal ball.

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4 minutes ago, ErinD said:

My only thought is if they are going to limit capacity, will there be availability once we know for sure?

Definitely a risk but I feel like it's just too wide open to play a game of roulette with what will or wont sail.

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ErinD, here are some things to consider:

You've got more flexibility if you are within driving distance of your embarkation port.

Despite COVID risks there appears to be a lot of pent-up demand to cruise ASAP. If the lines are green-lighted to go on 11/01/20, cabins for December sailings are going to get snapped up.

If there is booking space in the cabin you want now, there's a good chance it will be gone within minutes of any announcement suggesting that ship is going to sail.

Given RCG's current policy on refunds, you have little to lose, more if you have to make air travel and embarkation hotel arrangements  - even then airlines are being pretty generous if you cancel. Hotels usually have free cancellation w/24h notice.

Ask yourself if you and those you're cruising with are completely comfortable with masking, distancing and the rigmarole that the Safe-To-Sail plan will impose on your cruise experience. Cruising in the early stages of a restart is not going to be anything like cruising pre-COVID.

Finally, if you are worrying right now about becoming infected on land or at sea and onboard the cruise you are thinking about booking, even with the layered mitigation measures being implemented, you're probably better off staying home.

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13 minutes ago, JeffB said:

ErinD, here are some things to consider:

You've got more flexibility if you are within driving distance of your embarkation port.

Despite COVID risks there appears to be a lot of pent-up demand to cruise ASAP. If the lines are green-lighted to go on 11/01/20, cabins for December sailings are going to get snapped up.

If there is booking space in the cabin you want now, there's a good chance it will be gone within minutes of any announcement suggesting that ship is going to sail.

Given RCG's current policy on refunds, you have little to lose, more if you have to make air travel and embarkation hotel arrangements  - even then airlines are being pretty generous if you cancel. Hotels usually have free cancellation w/24h notice.

Ask yourself if you and those you're cruising with are completely comfortable with masking, distancing and the rigmarole that the Safe-To-Sail plan will impose on your cruise experience. Cruising in the early stages of a restart is not going to be anything like cruising pre-COVID.

Finally, if you are worrying right now about becoming infected on land or at sea and onboard the cruise you are thinking about booking, even with the layered mitigation measures being implemented, you're probably better off staying home.

Thank you, Jeff. Great response.

I agree with all of your points! Not worried at all about being infected ūüėČ

I've already traveled to Walt Disney World and St. Lucia...just ready to sail again.

Just trying to decide if New Years might have a better chance of sailing since it's a week later...decisions, decisions.

Thank you!

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11 minutes ago, ErinD said:

I've already traveled to Walt Disney World and St. Lucia...just ready to sail again.

You may be interested to know that not a single employee of Walt Disney World has become infected since they reopened and that, to my knowledge, not a single case of C-19 has been tracked and traced to that venue. That's not saying someone didn't get it there but news like that hasn't made it the media who would jump on it if was true.

How do I know this? The NYT published what amounts to a mea-culpa for writing a piece shortly after the decision to re-open the parks in Orlando deriding it and claiming it would turn into a terrible hot-spot of C-109 spread. Well, not surprisingly, that didn't happen and,  credit where credit is due, the NYT apologized for spreading fear.

You can count on the same sort of thing happening if cruising restarts. The media will probably warn us of catastrophe and dire consequences but will more than likely end up with egg n their faces. 

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If you don't mind them holding the money for a few months if/when it doesn't sail, and you're not going to get too upset if you book on a ship that ends up not sailing, I don't see why not.  Think it'll be a long shot that they'll be sailing and you'll pick a ship/sailing that happens, but with the current policies there's not really any downside, and some potential upside to it.

I've got a couple booked for before/during Christmas that I expect will be canceled, I'm holding onto them for the FCC/cruise planner credit boost (even when it cancels it'll be a win!).  Thought about booking a third for New Years...then decided to just wait and see what comes out for 2022 first.

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If you don't have a problem with your money potentially being tied up in case it doesn't happen AND if you can live with the restrictions and mitigation requirements on board then the smart thing to do is book now before the rush that will occur once anything is confirmed.

In the past a Christmas cruise would have seen parades and Santa events.  Those probably won't happen.  In the past a NYE cruise would have seen a huge party on the promenade counting down to midnight.  That probably won't happen.  If you are willing to accept a very different holiday experience from past years on board and those changes won't ruin your cruise then you have the opportunity for a great vacation getaway.  

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20 minutes ago, JeffB said:

You may be interested to know that not a single employee of Walt Disney World has become infected since they reopened and that, to my knowledge, not a single case of C-19 has been tracked and traced to that venue. That's not saying someone didn't get it there but news like that hasn't made it the media who would jump on it if was true.

How do I know this? The NYT published what amounts to a mea-culpa for writing a piece shortly after the decision to re-open the parks in Orlando deriding it and claiming it would turn into a terrible hot-spot of C-109 spread. Well, not surprisingly, that didn't happen and,  credit where credit is due, the NYT apologized for spreading fear.

You can count on the same sort of thing happening if cruising restarts. The media will probably warn us of catastrophe and dire consequences but will more than likely end up with egg n their faces. 

You are correct on all accounts ūüôā

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10 minutes ago, twangster said:

If you don't have a problem with your money potentially being tied up in case it doesn't happen AND if you can live with the restrictions and mitigation requirements on board then the smart thing to do is book now before the rush that will occur once anything is confirmed.

In the past a Christmas cruise would have seen parades and Santa events.  Those probably won't happen.  In the past a NYE cruise would have seen a huge party on the promenade counting down to midnight.  That probably won't happen.  If you are willing to accept a very different holiday experience from past years on board and those changes won't ruin your cruise then you have the opportunity for a great vacation getaway.  

I am willing to deal with all the COVID restrictions, changes. I just want to get out there ūüôā

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From the new SEC filing today:

Quote

Based on the status of our discussions with the CDC and all recent communications with respect to our submitted plan, including consideration of the ‚Äúno sail‚ÄĚ order, as well as the best information available to us as of the date of this prospectus supplement, we remain optimistic that we will be able to commence commercial sailings in 2020

 

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46 minutes ago, Matt said:

From the new SEC filing today:

Quote

Based on the status of our discussions with the CDC and all recent communications with respect to our submitted plan, including consideration of the ‚Äúno sail‚ÄĚ order, as well as the best information available to us as of the date of this prospectus supplement, we remain optimistic that we will be able to commence commercial sailings in 2020

 

But this is missing the other phrase from your article on the main blog -- "however, we can provide no assurance that we will be able to return to service within such timeframe." That part's kind of important, since it gives them their out if they end up having to cancel December.

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4 minutes ago, JLMoran said:

But this is missing the other phrase from your article on the main blog -- "however, we can provide no assurance that we will be able to return to service within such timeframe." That part's kind of important, since it gives them their out if they end up having to cancel December.

"We'll let you know by Dec 31st"

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4 minutes ago, JLMoran said:

But this is missing the other phrase from your article on the main blog -- "however, we can provide no assurance that we will be able to return to service within such timeframe." That part's kind of important, since it gives them their out if they end up having to cancel December.

I don't think they need an out in an SEC filing.  It's for investors, not cruisers.  For investors they remain optimistic they can sail in 2020.  

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3 minutes ago, twangster said:

I don't think they need an out in an SEC filing.  It's for investors, not cruisers.  For investors they remain optimistic they can sail in 2020.  

They need the language in there in case it's cited in something like, I dunno... an investor class-action lawsuit or something equally silly.

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18 minutes ago, JLMoran said:

They need the language in there in case it's cited in something like, I dunno... an investor class-action lawsuit or something equally silly.

"We remain optimistic..." is not committing to a restart.  

IF they had said "We plan to restart in 2020" then they need language to protect that statement.  

Read the entire 8-K filing.

 

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All the language we're seeing reported in the SEC filling information is germane. I thought the most disturbing part of it was the RCG's expressed concern over the class action lawsuit filed by investors. The part about being a distraction and diverting time and money to defend against it suggests, not surprisingly, that RCG is worried about cash. To that end, it is clear they are delaying capital investments in shipboard and land based technology upgrades and further land development projects. Those are cash and debt conserving measures that often predate bankruptcy filings.  Not suggesting RCG is on the brink but it's moving closer the longer the shuttering of this industry persists.

I also thought it noteworthy that crew contracts will be ending, not renewed and then renegotiated when a path forward on restarting operations becomes clear. That is a slam dunk acknowledgement that labor costs are a prime concern and efforts to reduce them, when it is uncertain that cruise operations will restart before the start of the 2nd quarter, 2021, are being undertaken. As I read it, when they do this, it hamstrings RCG's ability for a quick restart once operations are green-lighted. It's not just warm-restarts that take a couple weeks, it's that plus signing crew back-up. A mess.

Interpreting the events in the last week in the context of all three majors bailing on November are just telling me that in order to conserve cash, they've dumped crew. That makes a quick restart impractical. I think we heard from Carnival Corp. that they didn't see anyway that they could restart, as planned out of two ports in FL, in November. That is tacit admission that they probably don't have the crew to do it and that the reason behind that problem is that they have let a good portion of them go.

Instead of optimistic talk about continuing dialogue with the CDC that we heard after the Pence phone meeting last week, I sense some RCG frustration over the statement that the CDC hasn't responded to their STS plan. That's not a good sign and reflective of a hardening of Redfield's position on the risk of congregate settings.

Best case restart at this point is mid-December and I think that is fading fast. Worst case seems to me to be April, 2021. I think industry survival possibly up to and definitely past that date is questionable.

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1 hour ago, JLMoran said:

But this is missing the other phrase from your article on the main blog -- "however, we can provide no assurance that we will be able to return to service within such timeframe." That part's kind of important, since it gives them their out if they end up having to cancel December.

Which may have influenced the sell off this morning.

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4 hours ago, JeffB said:

I also thought it noteworthy that crew contracts will be ending, not renewed and then renegotiated when a path forward on restarting operations becomes clear. That is a slam dunk acknowledgement that labor costs are a prime concern and efforts to reduce them, when it is uncertain that cruise operations will restart before the start of the 2nd quarter, 2021, are being undertaken. As I read it, when they do this, it hamstrings RCG's ability for a quick restart once operations are green-lighted. It's not just warm-restarts that take a couple weeks, it's that plus signing crew back-up. A mess.

Alternate perspective: Ending contracts probably makes it easier to move people from ship to ship.  If someone is contracted to work on Adventure of the Seas, but that ship won't be sailing (for example), then why keep that contract in place?  They can rehire the best workers from across the fleet for the few ships that will start sailing first.  As new ships are added, these workers are then already trained on the new protocols and can be spread back out across the fleet.

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On 10/12/2020 at 2:40 PM, ErinD said:

If you were a gambler such as myself, would you go for booking a Christmas cruise or wait for one over New Years for this year?

I know, I know, it's very likely neither will go...but, again, I'm a gambler ūüėČ

I landed # 17 three times in a row on roulette and wouldn’t take this bet. Keep in mind if they announced today that cruising would resume it would take a couple months to ramp up staff and other logistics. 

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