Scrumps

12 hours ago, twangster said:

Thinking out loud for a moment, the administration has placed themselves in an awkward position.  

If they don't embrace the cruising restart they admit the virus is dangerous and warrants caution. That flies in the face of virtually everything they are saying and doing right now.  

None of the cruise line safety protocols are being used in public schools so how can they say cruise ships with lots of safety protocols are too dangerous but schools, churches and businesses without the same protocols are safe?

100 times this..  FL is a toss up, his argument is that biden wants to shutdown the country. He wants to open it up and jobs.. It would go against everything they are saying to keep cruises shutdown.

Report coming out that Pence says no sail order will expire on Oct 30.

The reason I state this will end up being a political decision is because I do not believe the CDC is going to make it. As we have learned, the CDC director wanted a straight banned through Feb 2021..  he was over ruled by the WH.. that makes it a political decision, not a health and safety one.  I suspect after the meeting on Friday, there will be a joint statement from the Cruise Lines and the WH they are resuming on Nov 1st.   

You can't have a policy of opening everything up and at the same time shutting down an entire industry saying it is unsafe.  Ted Cruz last night blasted the shutdown policy for Disney laying off thousands of workers, not in FL, but in CA where the shutdown is stricter. 

I just don't see how the admin can be saying we need to open up the country and schools and then embrace a decision to shutdown an entire industry until next year.  Added to that FL decision to open up completely.  I am in no way advocating for one side or the other.. just stating what I believe will happen.

This will end up being a political decision.  The admin knows there are a lot of workers in FL who want to get back to, well, work. The CDC just wanted a blanket ban into 2021 with zero consideration for anything or reviewing the plans. The admin wants people back to work.  Announcing a return to sailing for 1st November is going to be a big deal.  I fully expect a decision in the next week that the no sail order ends on Oct 31.

My 2c.. 

• RCL is unlikely to file chapter 11 this year.
• I would be hard pressed to hold RCL stock past the end of this year if things are still bad.
• All bad news has been taken into account at this point and the stock is just bouncing between 45 and 55.
• It is unlikely to change until something happens.
• I would not add to any position at this point since it will likely drop if they announce cancellation of cruises for the remainder of the year.
• The stock will likely rocket to $70+ the moment the CDC announce the no sail order is ending.

At this point, it is going to depend on what comes next..  CDC extending no sail order vs. CDC allowing no sail order to end.

Obviously, news from other cruise companies will effect them all.. so if NCLH or CCL announce bad news, RCL will drop too.
Also, what if RCL, CCL or NCLH start to cruise in Europe?  that would have an impact too.

I also have cruise stock and for now I am comfortable holding it.  I just do not see any good news coming in the next month to change anything.

3 minutes ago, WAAAYTOOO said:

...or defense contractors

Very true.. and I forgot from 2009..

Banks
Auto Makers

Funny thing is, if you truly applied capitalism across the board, few airlines would exist today. 

56 minutes ago, bobroo said:

I would be very cautious about the CDC having an opinion poll of Americans what a reopening of cruising should look like; long time cruisers may not get the results they are expecting.

It is why all cruisers should take the time to submit a response.  You don't have to answer all the questions, just submit a statement.

I can't imagine too many people who want to stop cruising taking the time to find and then respond. 1 out of 22 approved entries so far.

I said this way back in April.. but if I had anything to do with it, I would have invested a hundred million or two into rapid testing. They are getting better each month.

I would streamline a process that enables massive numbers of testing for all passengers and crew before they board.
The crew to be tested every 2-3 days regardless.
Passengers to be tested mid cruise?  why not.. it's a 15-20 minute process and with 60% numbers, would be doable.
Expand the medical area to say, the place where the ice rink is, Increase number of medical staff.
Reduce port visits and concentrate mostly on the private islands.
Passengers to arrive having taken a covid test within the last 3 days so the one done before boarding can give weight to verifying the first one if negative.
Passengers must arrive at the exact time they are allocated. No one is allowed in a waiting area if not within the time frame designated.
Buses must check the arrive time and not allow people to board if their arrival time is later
Checks at the gate to the port for taxis and turn people around if they are too early

The only way to ensure that cruising is enjoyable is to significantly reduce the chance of it getting on the ship in the first place.

LOL.. we waited until one of the 3 turned 18 and was a responsible adult and then we were gone on long vacations on our own.  I absolutely would not wait until they finish college..

We did have one final big family vacation later and it reminded me of how expensive it is to travel with older children.

Interesting to see someone take the time to respond in the negative..

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=CDC-2020-0087-0002

A questions raised in this..  when someone has been identified as having covid. A ship returns docks as normal.. What happens next?

For normal land based issues, you are just sent home and told to isolate. Since you would not be allowed to fly, I guess the options are self isolate in local hotel, or rent a vehicle and drive home?  ie, it becomes the passengers responsibility not the cruise company?

 This and others like this I find frustrating..

What precautions should the cruise line industry take to safely disembark passengers and crew without transmitting COVID-19 into local seaport communities?

A counter question.. what are the airlines doing to safely disembark passengers and crew without transmitting COVID-19 into local airport communities?

I still believe that Oct 1st is going to be make or break for the industry. I know they have cash available until next year, but they are not going to wait until they run out. If the CDC refuses to hear their plans and just extends to 2021, and they lose all the holiday income too, at least 1 of the 3 will reorg, or worse. I just can't see status quo continuing through the end of the year.

What I do not understand is the mixed messages coming from the gov. They want kids in school and parents back to work, but have shutdown an industry that employees hundreds of thousands and brings in billions into the tourist industry. 

We started to purchase TI as we got older and our vacations got more expensive.  We had 2 good experiences in the last year. My wife put her back out on a cruise.. first, the medical experience on board ship was amazing and they gave her the 'good stuff'. We submitted a claim and got reimbursed with no issues.

This year we got a full refund of the TI policy for our cancelled cruise.. took a while but it was nice to get the cost of the policy refunded.

Things I learned working with MEI..  1)  you have to remove the FCC before you try to reprice.. and then add it back on.  2) Don't apply any FCC until final payment to make the whole process easier.

5 hours ago, DunkelBierJay said:

Why isn't mortality being reported with the spiking cases.

It is..  but as we saw in NY and Italy and Spain, the numbers of deaths trail cases by a few weeks. It is why the number of deaths continued to increase in NY when new cases were going down.  Also, as hospitals become full, some will die due to a lack of beds/care.  Lets see were we are in 3-4 weeks with the number of dead.

That the panel has ex CDC people and a former governor of Utah and HHS secretary is going to account for a lot in regards to getting a response from the CDC.

22 hours ago, Mrs. Thomas said:

After reading the new post, I was wondering how many people will actually have a problem with social distancing on a cruise.

We are fine with most of the changes. We will also forgo the theater if needed.  The two items that stops us from cruising any time soon is the possibility that an active covid case will send us all into quarantine and the port may deny us returning on time.  The 2nd item is the 2 week quarantine that my wife's work will impose.  Once the 2nd item is lifted and we get confirmation on how active cases are handled, we will look to cruise again.

I do like that the panel has a lot of ex CDC people. Has to be a way to get a response from the CDC with the people they have on it.

Yes.. but it is always good to see them reiterate the news instead of being quite for several weeks. I guess the next important piece of news will come from the CDC. They are expecting the no sail order to be extended, but will it to be 9/15 or longer..

CDC - Hold my beer..

03:11 PM EDT, 07/06/2020 (MT Newswires) -- Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) said Monday it plans to resume sailing operations on Sept. 16.

However, some of its ships and sailings will have an extended suspension. Canada and Bermuda sailings will be suspended through Oct. 31, and Voyager of the Seas sailings through Sept. 30. Odyssey of the Seas sailings from Nov. 5 through April 17, 2021, will also be canceled.

Separately, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) collaborated in developing improved cruise health and safety standards by creating a group of experts called the Healthy Sail Panel in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The panel will release its initial recommendations by August-end after starting work almost a month ago.