Royal Caribbean Blog

Royal Caribbean Group announced it lost $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020, but its stock price jumped up by 9% and perplexed quite a few people.

How could a company that loses so much money get investors to want to buy that stock?

Many cruise fans openly wondered how this could be the case.

On the RoyalCaribbeanBlog Facebook page, a few readers were curious why Royal Caribbean's stock shot up following the announcement of the loss.

Frank Vogt wrote, "And yet their stock is up $7.88 today...I'm happy but just don't understand why it keeps going up."

Profits and losses aren't everything

The reason Royal Caribbean's stock went up after posting a big loss is a reflection of how the stock market works, and what investors look for in any company.

Dan Kline, lead advisor/host of 7investing Now, explained why stocks do not always go the way you might think based on quarterly results, "Stocks don’t always behave logically after earnings.

"Apple, for example, posted an amazing quarter and its share price went down. In the longer-term, it will go up."

Investors consider a wide range of variables and benchmarks when looking at any stock. Given the information they have access to, investors might make certain estimates on what seems reasonable and/or likely for that company to achieve.

They not only consider the profits and losses now, but also the long-term future of the stock.

Generally, analysts predict a company's earnings per share (EPS) and revenue numbers for the quarter, fiscal year, and future fiscal years.

What did Royal Caribbean do right?

Mr. Kline explains why Royal Caribbean's stock jumped, despite the loss."In the case of RCL, the loss was expected but the picture going forward looks optimistic. People are buying shares based on that optimism."

"This remains a very risky play as lots of things could prevent a return to cruising. I own some RCL and some CCL, but they are less than 2% of my portfolio combined."

Helping Royal Caribbean's cause was a bullish call with investors, where cruise line executives provided encouraging news and a positive outlook on where things are going.

Read more: Royal Caribbean talks vaccine impact, Cruises to Europe in 2021, Cuba and more

Specifically, Royal Caribbean pointed to strong demand for cruises in 2021 and 2022, as well as imminent progress being made with the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC) which could lead to test cruises starting.

The amount of cruises booked for the second half of 2021, as well as 2022, was a good start.  On top of that, executives said bookings are higher than 2019 both including and excluding the dilutive impact of future cruise credits.

Mr. Kline added the company's comments gave him more confidence in the direction Royal Caribbean is going, "I think that I'm confident that RCl won't go bankrupt after what their CEO said."

"They have significant cash on hand and booking trends ae encouraging. I'm surprised that Richard Fain went out of the way to say that it had future bookings from a fair amount of new customers. I would have expected mostly returning regulars like me."

"It's still a lot of risk, but it does seem like a comeback is more possible, even likely, than it was even a few weeks ago and investors are picking that up. This is a very long-term investment, however, as the financial hole is deep."

As the cruise industry inches ever closer to restarting operations, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has asked Royal Caribbean to share some of its safety technology, a cruise line executive revealed Monday.

On a Royal Caribbean Group earnings call, Michael Bayley, president and CEO of Royal Caribbean International, said the CDC has asked the line to share the technology behind two new tools on which it is heavily relying during Quantum of the Seas voyages, which resumed from Singapore on December 1, 2020, with no port calls.

"...that technology development is really, we think, groundbreaking and very sophisticated," Bayley said. "And in our conversations that we had the week before last with the CDC, they specifically asked us to share that technology and what we've been doing in Singapore with them, which we've subsequently done."

"There are two technologies that have come from Quantum that really are game-changing. One is the e-mustering, which completely transforms the whole process of lifeboat mustering," Bayley explained.

Muster 2.0 -- otherwise known as "e-mustering" -- is a system that helps to keep large groups of passengers from congregating for what, previously, was an in-person safety drill prior to sailaway on each cruise.

Now, passengers can simply watch safety briefings via a cell phone app or their in-cabin televisions. They will have a four-hour window in which to do so and then report, in person, to a designated area where a crew member will verify completion.

Read more: Top 10 questions about Royal Caribbean's new Muster 2.0

Bayley then discussed a second innovation used on Quantum of the Seas -- contact tracing.

"The second is, we've really developed technology for contact tracing, using a combination of technologies. One of them is a Tracelet, which basically each guest wears, and you can tell exactly how long they've been in contact with everybody else who's wearing a Tracelet.

"Then, we have artificial intelligence connected into basically CCTV cameras that use facial and body recognition to then double check and verify contact tracing in the event that somebody did have covid onboard the ship."

Although Royal Caribbean filed a patent for Muster 2.0 in 2019, months before the pandemic was declared, the Traclet's patent was filed in October 2020 as a means to help track covid cases onboard.

Read more: How cruising changed on Royal Caribbean's first cruise back

Similar to Royal Caribbean's WOWBands, Tracelets are made of silicone. The latter use tracking technology to determine who came in contact with any person found to test positive for covid during a sailing. This information allows proper action to be taken in terms of isolating and quarantining to avoid further spread.

Royal Caribbean's new rules state the following:

"Contact tracing is an important part of our enhanced protocols to keep all our guests and crew safe. Each guest will be provided with a wearable device that allows rapid tracing in the event it is necessary. If you have found to have come within 6 feet of a covid-positive person, for at least 15 minutes, certain actions may be required for your safety and the safety of your fellow guests."

Currently, cruise lines are implementing a slew of new protocols in line with the CDC's conditional sail framework. They include improved air filtration systems and cleaning procedures, as well as plans for isolating, quarantining and disembarking ill passengers if necessary.

In order to test these protocols, cruise ships will soon be required to undergo test sailings with volunteer passengers. If all goes well, each vessel would then be required to receive authorization from the CDC in order to resume revenue voyages.

There is a new photo of Royal Caribbean's next new cruise ship for all of us to enjoy.

The Meyer Werft shipyard shared a new webcam photo of Royal Caribbean's next new cruise ship, Odyssey of the Seas.

There was a flurry of activity over the weekend as the ship was moved away from the pier, and her lifeboats were tested. 

This is likely a sign that Odyssey of the Seas is being prepared for her journey down the Ems River, which is known as her conveyance.

Read more: Odyssey of the Seas should begin her conveyance soon

The movement of Odyssey of the Seas away from the pier also gave cruise ship photographer Björn Haß the opportunity to give us a closer look at some of the ship's signature features.

Photos by Björn Haß

After her conveyance, the ship will conduct sea trials.

Odyssey of the Seas will be among the largest cruise ships in the world when she launches, but she will not claim the title of the largest.

The 169,000 GT cruise liner has an overall length of 347.1 meters, is 41.4 meters wide and can accommodate more than 5000 passengers.

This means she is smaller than the Oasis Class cruise ships, which currently hold the title for the largest in the world.

Read more: What Is the Biggest Royal Caribbean ship?

Royal Caribbean Group confirmed in its business update yesterday that Odyssey of the Seas will be delivered in the first quarter of 2021, although no specific date has been announced.

Due to the global health crisis, it is likely the handover ceremony will be a virtual one. Royal Caribbean Group held a virtual delivery of Celebrity Apex when it was delivered.

More information: 

• 5 plans Royal Caribbean will and won’t be able to do in 2021
• Beautiful photos of Royal Caribbean's next new cruise ship
• New show announced for Royal Caribbean's Odyssey of the Seas

The one dominant question in the cruise industry is when will cruise ships be able to sail again.

Royal Caribbean Group Chairman and CEO Richard Fain spoke to CNBC following his company's fourth quarter 2020 earnings call about a variety of topics, but when cruises might restart was the primary concern.

While Royal Caribbean Group reported another billion dollar loss, they were quite pleased with strong demand for cruises in the second half of 2021 and into 2022.

CNBC Global Markets Reporter Seema Mody put it bluntly when she said, "all the demand in the world is no help. Richard, if the industry is not given the clearance from the CDC."

Mr. Fain pointed to restarting cruises will take a lot, and both the cruise industry and the CDC are looking at a variety of factors before cruises can restart.

"We just we're in the midst of a huge surge...over the end of last year," Mr. Fain explained. "Nobody was going to suggest that we start operating in that kind of environment."

"But as that's coming down, as the numbers get better, as the prevalence in society gets better, as the vaccine gets out there more, I think that's when we can start having serious conversations to restart."

Read more: Royal Caribbean expecting CDC's technical instructions "any day"

So where is that point, exactly?

Mr. Fain said there is no single percentage or data point to look for, "I think the CDC, and we ourselves and our healthy sales panel, would say no one statistic is the determining factor."

"Unfortunately, there's no one magic threshold that says, 'now is the day. If we reach this point, we can go.'"

Read more: Royal Caribbean talks vaccine impact, Cruises to Europe in 2021, Cuba and more

Passengers worst fear: infection or isolated?

Richard Fain also talked about the distinction between passengers fearing getting infected versus being stuck on a cruise ship as the result of a case.

"People aren't so much worried about getting sick on a ship, they're worried that somebody else gets sick and that that destroys their whole vacation.

"That's why the protocols that we've come up with, a big focus of them, is how do we isolate cases when we have a case because there will be cases on the ship just as there are always cases in society. Our job is to make sure that it stays cases and doesn't become an outbreak."

"That's a lot of our discussion with the with the CDC and others, and that the vaccines are a big part of that."

Can Royal Caribbean borrow even more money?

Seema Mody ended the interview by asking Richard Fain does Royal Caribbean have more resources to borrow if the shutdown continues.

"We have a quiver of things full of actions we could take if we needed."

"We have been methodical about this and always looking fairly far out so that we're not dealing with an imminent issue. We always want to be dealing with if something goes wrong, we have time to fix it."

"And in this case, we've built up enough of our liquidity. We've built up enough of our ammunition so that we have the luxury of not having to deal with the crisis, but to gradually improve our liquidity, our financial health, because we want to get back to investment grade as quickly as we can."

Royal Caribbean held an hour long meeting with Wall Street investors that touched on topics ranging from what the vaccine rollout is doing to help bookings and protocols, booking trends, Cuba cruises and much more.

Financial analysts asked Royal Caribbean Group executives a myriad of questions surrounding their near- and long-term futures that provided interesting insight into what they are seeing and expecting right now.

Here is a breakdown of some of the most interesting anecdotes to come out of the call.

Cruising in a vaccine world

One major change since the last earnings call with investors is the role of the Covid vaccine.  It has gone from theoretical to beginning widespread distribution, and it has fundamentally changed how Royal Caribbean and governments seen cruise ships restarting.

When Royal Caribbean Group produced their 74 recommendations for cruise ships to restart sailings safely, it was crafted without vaccines in mind, but the world is changing.

Royal Caribbean Group Chairman and CEO Richard Fain sees early 2021 as an interim period, where the vaccines are still relatively new.

"They're coming out amazingly quickly, but it still is going to take months to get huge numbers of people vaccinated."

Neither the cruise lines or governments have answers yet on how effective the vaccines are, and what effect they will have on the populous, but Mr. Fain is optimistic based on the results of Israel, where a speedy rollout has spurred a quick return to normalcy.

"We think that the vaccine is, of course, the ultimate weapon and the fact that it is coming out and beginning to come out so quickly and that the pace of that is growing will be a basis for a new set of of approaches."

Mr. Fain admitted no one knows yet what those new vaccine-bolstered protocols will look like.

Read more: Royal Caribbean adds COVID-19 into cruise contract for all passengers

What will cruises in Europe be like 2021?

A lot of attention has been placed with the CDC and cruise lines in North America, but what about cruises to Europe where American regulations do not apply?

Royal Caribbean International President and CEO Michael Bayley confirmed that while their sailings in Europe are not subject to the CDC jurisdiction, he believes they will be guided by the protocols coming from either the Healthy Sail Panel, European Union, or U.K.

"We know that the operations in some of the European countries, particularly Germany, Italy, have been ongoing for the past couple of month... and those protocols that have government operations have basically been based on the Healthy Sail Panel or the CLIA member policies, and then overlaid with specific instructions by the National Health Authority."

"I think what we're going to see is very similar to what we're going to see in the United States, which is as we continue to see infections decline and vaccines increase, then we're going to move to protocols that probably are some kind of hybrid between vaccines and testing."

"We imagine that they'll be very similar to the guidelines that we'll get from the CDC."

Read more: Royal Caribbean expecting CDC's technical instructions "any day"

Correlation between vaccine distributions & new bookings

Perhaps nothing has been more beneficial to Royal Caribbean's bottom line or overall morale than the rollout of Covid vaccines.

Mr. Bayley noted almost as soon as vaccines got approval, bookings jumped, "One of the things that we've seen really after we came out of the holidays early in January, is a proportional increase in the number of guests booking who were 65 plus, and that is continue to increase."

"Our belief is, is that 65 plus are getting vaccinated, then they're obviously becoming more comfortable with booking, and we're seeing that very much in our bookings from about January forward."

"As the vaccine spreads down into the population by age, we'll see that probably accelerate."

Royal Caribbean Group Chief Financial Officer Jason Liberty added that while experienced cruisers have been the backbone for bookings since the shutdown, there has been more recently an increase in new cruisers booking around the same timeframe Mr. Bayely talked about.

"As the vaccines are being rolled out, we're seeing that there's a pretty strong relationship to booking volumes and and vaccines."

"What we have seen more recently, though, it's not back to where it was pretty Covid, there has been an increase in first two crews coming back into the space."

"It's also building confidence that we're getting closer to the other side of this and people are beginning to realize that that travel should be here sooner rather than later."

98% of crew members in favor of getting vaccinated

Royal Caribbean recently announced it plans to get all of its crew members vaccinated, and that has overwhelmingly been met with positivity by the crew.

Mr. Bayley said Royal Caribbean sent out a survey to all of their crew members last week, which totals around 70,000 employees.

Of the 32,000 responses they got within 12 hours, 98% of all of the crew who responded they were in favor of being required to get the Covid vaccine in order to work.

"We also learned that over 4000 of our crew have already been vaccinated at home."

"I think we are very encouraged by the results."

Read more: It looks like Royal Caribbean will vaccinate its crew members

There is at least one ship that can still go to Cuba

As soon as Royal Caribbean announced Majesty of the Seas and Empress of the Seas would be sold, there was immediate concern there would not be a ship capable of going to Cuba if that ever re-opened.

Michael Bayley was equally concerned when the news came there was a buyer.

"We do have a ship, ships, that will fit into into Cuba if that should come back."

He did not specify which vessel that was.

Read more: Royal Caribbean sold two smaller cruise ships with enormous legacies

Will they sell more cruise ships?

Could Royal Caribbean sell more cruise ships? It depends on the opportunity.

Jason Liberty said Royal Caribbean will remain "opportunistic".

"I think we need to remember that pre-pandemic, all of these ships generated quite a bit of cash flow."

"For us typically to test on on a ship is a little bit less about the cash that we would receive; It's more strategic on whether we think this ship, whether it's in its current state or through some moderate investment, fits our brands."

Cruise lines could finally get the critical information they need from the U.S. Center for Disease Control Control (CDC) to get test cruises going.

During Royal Caribbean Group's fourth quarter 2020 earnings call with investors, Royal Caribbean International President and CEO Michael Bayley gave an update on where things stand with the CDC.

Mr. Bayley said that Royal Caribbean has been in "regular communication" with the CDC and expects to get technical instructions on what each ship needs to do in order to prepare itself for test cruises.

"We're literally expecting the technical specifications any day soon," Mr. Bayley told investors.

When the CDC lifted the No Sail Order at the end of October and replaced it with the Framework for Conditional Sail Order, the CDC outlined a series of steps required for cruises to be able to progress towards restarting.

Cruise lines are still waiting for those instructions.

Read more: Everything you need to know about Royal Caribbean test cruises

"It's an intergovernmental process between several agencies within the government that are reviewing the technical specifications."

"But they've assured us as soon as all of these things come together, they want to get us back into operations. So we're just literally waiting."

With dropping infection rates, Royal Caribbean sees higher optimism for test cruises to begin.

"We're waiting and, you know, hopefully we'll get them soon and we can we can start a trial sailings."

The fact all cruise lines are still waiting for technical instructions from the CDC came up in January when Carnival Corp. CEO Arnold Donald told investors during an earnings call that they were still waiting on additional guidelines from the CDC for future phases.

In early February, the CDC confirmed to RoyalCaribbeanBlog that the agency had still not delivered those instructions to cruise lines, but was coming soon.

"We anticipate the next phase of technical instructions (Technical Instructions for Port and Local Health Authorities Agreements) to be released in the next few weeks."

Working with the CDC

The nature of Royal Caribbean's relationship with the CDC also came up during the call, as many in the public point out the different approach the CDC has taken with cruise lines versus other sectors of travel.

Mr. Bayley characterized the discussions with the CDC as "productive".

"They're dealing with an incredibly challenging situation and environment."

"They've assured us on several occasions that when these indicators really start to move in a very positive way, then they'll start working with us to get us back into operation. And that's exactly what we're seeing now."

"My sense is, is that we're getting closer and closer to good news."

In terms of getting a sense of what the CDC or cruise lines are looking for in these statistics, there are still unknowns, but Royal Caribbean Group Chairman and CEO Richard Fain pointed to factors such as how quickly the vaccine continues to roll out, or how the Covid variants will affect numbers going forward.

"I think it's premature for them, or for us, to try and speculate on what threshold the number has to be, because it's so many variables."

"I think we're more encouraged to see the really dramatic drop that we've been experiencing and the really nice roll out, particularly in the United States, in the U.K., in the in the vaccine."

Royal Caribbean Group released its fourth quarter and full year 2020 financial results, along with an update on its business operations.

All cruise lines have been ravaged by the effects of the industry shutdown, and Royal Caribbean Group is no exception.

For the full year, Royal Caribbean Group reported US GAAP Net Loss of $(5.8) billion or $(27.05) per share compared to US GAAP Net Income of $1.9 billion or $8.95 per share in the prior year. Royal Caribbean Group also reported Adjusted Net Loss of $(3.9) billion or $(18.31) per share for full year 2020 compared to Adjusted Net Income of $2.0 billion or $9.54 per share in the prior year.

In the fourth quarter 2020, Royal Caribbean group has a US GAAP Net Loss $(1.4) billion or $(6.09) per share and Adjusted Net Loss was $(1.1) billion or $(5.02) per share. 

"These results reflect the staggering impact that the pandemic brought to our Company and the whole industry during 2020," said Jason T. Liberty, executive vice president and CFO.

"The COVID-19 pandemic is having a painful and profound impact on our world and our business; unquestionably, this crisis is the most difficult in the Company's history. But we have been impressed and grateful for the resourcefulness and agility of our team in responding to these unprecedented challenges. More importantly, we remain confident about the ability of our Company to recover and return to the positive trajectory we were on previously," said Richard D. Fain, Chairman and CEO. "We are encouraged to see the sharp decline in cases and the growing availability of vaccines. We can't wait to get back to the business of showing people the world and making great memories."

Working towards a restart

While much of their operations remain shutdown, Royal Caribbean Group is still working towards getting back into service.

The cruise line said it is working to meet the requirements of the Framework for Conditional Sailing Order issued by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for US sailings, but obstacles remain.

Specifically, Royal Caribbean Group called out the "many uncertainties" that remain regarding the specifics of the plan.  This seems to echo Carnival Corporation's comments that they are still waiting on basic instruction from the CDC on how to proceed.

Read more: What are the chances my cruise will sail?

In addition, the timing and cost of implementing the CDC's requirements remains in question.

Nonetheless, Royal Caribbean Group expects to re-start its global cruise operation in a phased manner with the initial cruises having reduced guest occupancy, modified itineraries and enhanced health and safety protocols.

Read more: Is there a pattern to when Royal Caribbean cancels cruises?

Financial state

In 2020, Royal Caribbean Group raised approximately $9.3 billion of new capital through a combination of bond issuances, common stock public offerings and other loan facilities.

As of December 31, 2020, the Company had liquidity of approximately $4.4 billion, including $3.7 billion in cash and cash equivalents and a $0.7 billion commitment from a 364-day facility

The current cash burn is, on average, in the range of approximately $250 million to $290 million per month during a prolonged suspension of operations.

This range includes all interest expenses, ongoing ship operating expenses, administrative expenses, hedging costs, expected necessary capital expenditures (net of committed financings in the case of newbuilds) and excludes changes in customer deposits, commissions, principal repayments, and fees and collateral postings related to financing and hedging activities. 

Once ships begin to move to restart operations, that spend will increase as it brings the ships out of their various levels of layup, returns the crew to the vessels, takes the necessary steps to ensure compliance with the recommended protocols and gears up its sales and marketing activities.

New ships

A few new ships are still "on the books" for Royal Caribbean Group, with financing committed to it.

Odyssey of the Seas and Silver Dawn should be delivered during the first and fourth quarters of 2021, respectively.

Read more: Odyssey of the Seas should begin her conveyance soon

Wonder of the Seas and Celebrity Beyond both have their financing committed for 2022.

Excluding the newbuild deliveries, the capital expenditures for 2022 will depend on the Company's schedule to return to service.

Cruise bookings update

The good news is bookings for cruises in the second half of 2021 are "aligned with the Company's anticipated resumption of cruising."

In fact, pricing for 2021 bookings is higher than 2019.

Cumulative advance bookings for the first half of 2022 are within historical ranges and at higher prices. Royal Caribbean believes this highlights a strong long-term demand for cruising.

Since the last quarter, approximately 75% of bookings made for 2021 are new and 25% are due to the redemption of FCCs and the "Lift & Shift" program. 

As of December 31,2020, the Company had $1.8 billion in customer deposits of which 50% are related to FCCs. Since the suspension of operations, approximately 53% of the guests booked on cancelled sailings have requested cash refunds.

Hope you are having a great weekend.  Here is all of this week's Royal Caribbean cruise news.

The contract you agree to when you book a cruise now includes additional disclosures regarding COVID-19.

Royal Caribbean has updated its Cruise Contract with new language related to the current global health crisis at some point in the last few months.

Section 4 of the contract used to cover simply "medical care and other personal services" has been updated to now cover "public health, COVID-19 policies and procedures, knowing acceptance of the risks".

Royal Caribbean News

• Royal Caribbean begins dropping visits to Key West following cruise ship ban
• The big questions for Royal Caribbean's 4th quarter earnings call next week
• Luxury cruise line will require everyone to get a COVID-19 vaccine
• Royal Caribbean pushes back final payment date for 2021 Alaska and New England cruises
• Royal Caribbean joins movement to bring shore power to cruise ships
• Norwegian Cruise Line cancels May 2021 cruises
• Is there a pattern to when Royal Caribbean cancels cruises?
• Carnival CEO: "By the end of this year, most, if not all, of our fleet will be in action"
• First look at AquaTheater on Royal Caribbean's Wonder of the Seas
• Royal Caribbean's online check-in requires a negative covid test before arriving to the cruise terminal
• Royal Caribbean opens $40 million funding option for travel agents
• Odyssey of the Seas construction photo update - February 16, 2021
• 10 Things Royal Caribbean does differently from any other cruise line
• What's Included on a Celebrity Cruise?
• A Valentine's Day story from the only Royal Caribbean cruise ship sailing

New RCB Video: What is the WORST Royal Caribbean ship?

Have you subscribed to the Royal Caribbean Blog YouTube Channel? We share some great videos there regularly, all about taking a Royal Caribbean cruise! This week, we are sharing our latest video — What is the WORST Royal Caribbean ship? — and don’t forget to subscribe here.

Royal Caribbean Blog Podcast

The 394th episode of the Royal Caribbean Blog Podcast is now available featuring a look at Teresa's first back to back cruise.

In this episode, Teresa shares her cruise story from Allure of the Seas trying two cruises in a row.

Please feel free to subscribe via iTunes or RSS, and head over to rate and review the podcast on iTunes if you can! We’d appreciate it.

Coast Guard wont fine you for not wearing a mask on a cruise ship, but you will get kicked off

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) requires people on public transportation to wear masks, but what is the penalty if you don't comply?

If you don't wear a face mask on an airplane, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) will fine you, but the Coast Guard will not do the same for cruise ship guests violating the new Federal rules.

A spokesperson for the Coast Guard provided a vague explanation that they intend to ensure cruise ships are enforcing the rules, but stopped short of saying they would fine passengers caught breaking the rules in a similar way that the TSA does.

Royal Caribbean's next new cruise ship looks to be close to taking her next big step forward to joining the fleet.

Based on activity at the Meyer Werft shipyard, Odyssey of the Seas is being prepared to begin her river conveyance.

Cruise ship observers near the shipyard have noticed Odyssey has been moved away from the pier so that all lifeboats can be lowered and tested.

RoyalCaribbeanBlog reader twangster also noted tide tables and notices of dam closures along the Ems River point to Odyssey of the Seas making the trip down the river towards the sea on the 27th of February.

In order to have a succesful conveyance, wind speeds must be 20 knots or less and a full or new moon present.

Neither Meyer Werft nor Royal Caribbean has announced or confirmed when the conveyance may take place. It is believed the conveyance will not be as grand a spectacle as it usually is in order to avoid crowd gatherings along the Ems River during the global health crisis.

Ever since being floated out in November 2020, Odyssey has been docked outside of the construction hall where she was assembled.  

Read more: Why are new cruise ships still being built?

What is a conveyance?

The conveyance is a planned move of the cruise ship from the shipyard to the North Sea.

Meyer Werft shipyard is in Papenburg, Germany, which is considerably inland from open ocean. Meyer Werft was built inland to avoid the impact of storms in the North Sea, and has been sailing ships down the Ems since 1795.

As a result, Odyssey of the Seas will be taken slowly down the 32 kilometer journey during a coordinated move that coincides with high tide.

The conveyance has to occur when the tides are just right so that there is more water below the hull.  In addition, certain dams will be closed to increase the safety buffer.

In some places, there are only a few centimeters of clearance on either side of the ship as it travels from the shipyard to the channel.

Two tugboats on required to guide the ship, and the ship will move at approximately 2-3 knots down the river.

A total of 4 bridges are either opened or removed and power us cutoff to power lines at 3 locations causing them to shrink and rise up so the ship can pass with as little clearance as 1.8 meters.

Odyssey of the Seas will traverse her conveyance backwards down the river in order to optimize control. Going backwards protects the azipods and propellers since the rear of the ship stays in the center of the river when maneuvering in reverse.

It takes about 10 hours to complete the conveyance, although the time will vary based on a variety of conditions.

Each of the Quantum Class ships that came before Odyssey of the Seas have been successfully moved down the river during their conveyance. In most years, the conveyance is as much a celebration as a technical maneuver.

In fact, the Quantum Class ships are one of the largest cruise ships to leave Meyer Werft and travel through the Ems River.

Once the conveyance is complete, sea trials will likely commence, followed by handover of the cruise ship to Royal Caribbean.

No delivery date has been announced yet, other than to expect it in Spring 2021.

Perhaps no other question has been asked as often over the course of the last year as the likelihood of their cruise actually sailing.

Every week I pull a popular question that RoyalCaribbeanBlog readers have been asking to help everyone who might be wondering the same thing.

I have a cruise booked for October 2021 on Harmony of the Seas. What are the chances this cruise will be able to sail? - Rick T.

Rick's question can be expanded to almost any sailing booked this year (or even in 2022), because after a year of no cruises and plenty of cancellations, it's difficult to know when cruises will be able to restart.

Unfortunately for Rick, and anyone else wondering the same thing, there is no answer. 

Nobody knows with any kind of accuracy.

Why is it so difficult to know when cruises might restart?

Essentially, there is not enough information to make any kind of predictions that are not purely random guesses.

We learned earlier this month that the U.S. Center for Disease Control Control (CDC) has not delivered to the cruise lines yet the technical instructions on what each ship needs to do in order to prepare itself for test cruises.

This is a major hurdle for Royal Caribbean to begin implementing new health protocols on its cruise ships and conduct test sailings.

It is generally believed that before any cruise ship can sail again, test sailings need to occur and be validated by CDC observers.  At that point, a cruise line can apply for conditional approval to resume sailings.

Other than canceling upcoming cruises a month at a time, Royal Caribbean has not provided any outlook or prediction on when sailings might restart.

In fact, Royal Caribbean Group Chairman and CEO Richard Fain told travel agents earlier this month he says no one yet knows for certain when cruises will resume en masse.

"My answer is consistently, I don't know. But more recently, my answer has been, I don't know, but that's the good direction to be going in."

Time is on your side

The best answer to Rick's question on the chances his sailing will occur, is to say the further out your cruise is, the higher the likelihood of it occurring.

Right now, the world is in a race to distribute vaccines to help bring down the number of cases that are contributing to there being a public health emergency.

The further out you go into 2021, the more time pharmaceutical companies and governments have to produce and distribute vaccines to the population.

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, co-chair of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings’ and Royal Caribbean Group’s Healthy Sail Panel, said as soon as the end of March the vaccine may be widely available to residents of the United States.

Dr. Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.

Of course, there are lots of conflicting predictions on when "herd immunity" may become a reality, but even conservative estimates put widespread vaccine distribution in the summer. 

All of this means cruises scheduled for summer 2021 and beyond certainly appear to have a higher chance of occurring.

What signs to look for when cruises might restart?

Besides Royal Caribbean actually announcing a firm restart plan, there are likely to be indications things are moving in the direction of cruises being able to restart.

Rehiring crew members is always a positive sign that cruise lines are thinking they want to do something to get closer to restarted. There have been times over the last year when crew were hired, then cancelled their plans to come back, so it is not always a firm indicator.

The best sign will be when test sailings can commence.  In order to get approval to sail, all cruise lines need to demonstrate to the CDC that new health protocols can work.

Test cruises are simulated sailings with mostly cruise line employees onboard pretending to be guests.  Travel agents are also likely to be on at least some of those sailings.

Any test sailings are a very good sign of what to expect.

In addition, comments from cruise line executives may provide context in the next few weeks and months of the direction things are going.

More mailbag questions:

• Why do I have to pay gratuities for my toddler?
• Should I make final payment for my cruise?
• What's worth paying extra for on a cruise?