UNCFanatik

49 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Florida may not win tomorrow, but I don't agree with these reasons why.

 

https://www.cruiselawnews.com/2021/05/articles/disease/why-the-state-of-florida-will-lose-its-motion-for-preliminary-injunction-against-the-cdc-tomorrow/

 

One of the biggest arguments in the lawsuit was the CDC has overstepped its bounds. Just last week a successful lawsuit said the CDC overstepped its bounds in eviction moratoriums.

There's also the argument Alaska has on how ridiculous the shore agreement clause is.

 

Then again reading that author's other articles, it seems he may be a bit biased.

Wow... I went on cruise law news Facebook page and they show open contempt for the cruise industry 

while the author of the article may turn out to be right about the outcome of tomorrow’s hearing, his writings show he is far from an objective bystander 

15 minutes ago, twangster said:

Cool, especially since none of their ships are in the US for the summer.

CDC ain't got nothing on them.  

They don't come to the US until the CSO has expired.

I agree but they do reference the CDC in their guidelines which is a nod to them when they return to US

https://www.azamara.com/booked-guests/before-you-board/explore-well-at-sea/explore-well-faq

This is better but still keep in mind this is a fully vaccinated sailing to start

Masking:

Will I be required to wear a mask while onboard and when going ashore?

All guests and crew will be required to wear face masks when physical distancing isn’t possible including indoor public areas, terminals and during shore excursions in accordance with the Healthy Sail Panel and CDC latest recommendations. Guests will not be required to wear masks in their staterooms, while dining in restaurants or in outdoor areas where physical distancing can be maintained. We’re continually monitoring public health guidelines and will modify masks policies as new information becomes available and standards evolve.

41 minutes ago, Fairlynew said:

I understand your thought process, which is why this is so disturbing to me.  Many people will think like this which may make the next pandemic even more lethal.

You mean like staying inside for a year based on CDC when indoor transmission was the primary means of spread? You mean like keeping kids out of school and watching suicide rates skyrocket? You mean like listening to the CDC while watching your small business crumble that it sends you in a spiral of depression which leads to opioid abuse? And when should we listen to the CDC? The current director had to have her statements walked back 3 times this year. On schools, pregnant women getting vaccines and her statements on vaccinated people spreading covid. Which time should we listen to her? 

Since the CDC is now a political organization, we would be better served looking at the data and science from other sources rather than CDC guidance which is now based on whatever political narrative the administration desires. 

Shutting down playgrounds, beaches, parks, and other outdoor areas only added to the problem. Outdoor transmission has never been a thing. Yet the CDC stills insist on mask wearing outside. Look at their Summer Camp recommendations for children and how downright abusive it is to ask kids in 90 degree weather to wear masks outdoors. 

The CDC is losing the public's trust and downright lost trust by millions in the US and they are to blame because of their incompetence

The CDCs incompetence is keeping 1000s of cruise related jobs shuttered for no valid scientific reason. Its time for their power over the cruise industry is ended and I am hoping for a favorable ruling tomorrow in the hearing 

24 minutes ago, steverk said:

I'm assuming your issue is the need to purchase airfare.  If so, I'd strongly suggest using Air2Sea.  If the cruise is cancelled, I believe you will get your money back.

I agree with your suggestion but the problem I see with Royal being so quiet lately is that people dont want to tie up their funds even if they were to get a full refund. 

Hopefully, Royal will come out with some more information this week regarding Summer cruises so those of us with booked sailing have time to make a informed decision and be able to pivot to other vacation plans

19 minutes ago, JeffB said:

The sad thing about this is that their screw-ups have lead to untoward damage here in the US and globally in that many health agencies elsewhere rely upon and follow CDC recommendations. That so many of them have been wrong, horribly wrong, has spread confusion and over-reaction to the pandemic. The cruise industry's shut down and the ridiculous CSO are a glaring examples.

This could not have become news at a better time. May 12th.

Fully agree and lying and misleading the public has more to do with Vaccine Hesitancy than anything else including trying to pin it all on Tucker Carlson. The "cure" has been truly worse than the virus. Lockdowns havent been proven to stop the virus and have created a myriad of other societal issues that will be around for years long after Covid is management. Opioid abuse and deaths, suicides, mental health issues, early detection of serious diseases, the worst social experiment in history on our children and removing them from schools when not necessary are all a result of CDC "guidance". The current CDC director needs to resign or be fired. 

And when we talk about heard immunity, the talking heads on TV just talk about % of US population vaccinated but yet fail to take into account natural Covid immunity among the populace and people who have recovered from Covid that are not vaccinated. We are much closer to herd immunity than we are being led to believe. There are even some scientists that believe we are there already. 

There is ZERO valid reason why the cruise industry is shut down in the US right now. Even with an abundance of Caution, cruising should have restarted in the Spring at the latest.  I hope the Judge tomorrow sees through all the lies and duplicity of the CDC and declares that the no sail order is invalid and should be lifted. No more trying to appease a political, agenda driven CDC who ignores science and data

15 minutes ago, JeffB said:

Look, I get the two classes of people argument when it comes to vaccines. I don't share that argument. Caveat: I'm both fully vaccinated and in a higher COVID risk category by age.  My view is that if you want to play, you pay. See the success of Israel in returning that country to a post pandemic normalcy among other countries. Frankly, I'll choose a cruise line that requires crew and pax to be vaccinated over one that doesn't. I think if the CSO is enjoined, there will be some lines who won't require vaccination to sail. Until the level of circulating virus is sufficiently low by defined metrics to gauge that, lines who elect to cruise from locales where there is evidence that the virus is still circulating are risking being negligent - grounds for a civil claim for damages that the lines cannot contractually avoid with the typical illness rejoinders in cruise contracts. I think RCG has figured this out already.

As I have mentioned in a previous post(s). I am pro-business. I believe that businesses should be able to set their terms of service on their own provided they are legal. From a business standpoint, it makes sense to codify the CDC and require a high level of vaccinated persons (crew and passengers) on cruises from the US this summer provided that Royal can pull it off in July. IN the long term, I think its bad business to restrict your customer base based on vaccination. Just like you have a preference so do others especially when it comes to children being required to be vaccinated.  Right now it is a logistical nightmare to not only vaccinate crew but for Royal to produce its plans for any US July sailings. We are just over 60 days for mid-july. What is Royal's plan? Will they try test cruises? Will they require the Vaccinated levels suggested by the CDC (98% of crew, 95% of passengers) to bypass test sailings? I have a July 17th sailing on Symphony booked. What will that look like? Will booked guests be offered a chance to be  part of simulated cruises? Will they be told to get vaccinated? And at what % of capacity does Royal break even on a sailing of Symphony? 

And if Symphony does sail on July 17th under the CDC recommended vaccinated levels, then myself and family should be treated as we are vaccinated. You know, follow the science and data. No outdoor masking. No masking during meals. No masking on Coco Cay. The ability to schedule my own excursions and even wander around a port city on my own. The list continues. Otherwise, the CDC and Royal contribute to vaccine hesitancy. When will Royal announce their plan and put out guidance for mid-July start that they say they are planning? I am 68 days out. I get that they are waiting on the hearing come Wednesday and there are a lot of moving pieces to consider but they need to remember the amount of people that have fully paid for July cruises that deserve a plan at this point in order to make alternate plans in a summer with high demand on travel. 

Lastly, I hope that PCR tests that are set to run too high a cycle count are stopped being used to determine Covid infection. Too many false positives have resulted from this method which is then added to the case count of a particular location. 

7 minutes ago, RBRSKI said:

Imagine if the cruise line and the CDC just gave the passengers a choice!  This unnecessary turbulence could be avoided !  They don't want it to be simple, they thrive on controversy.  

Imagine a world where people could assess their own level of risk and be able to chose activities accordingly. 

38 minutes ago, twangster said:

If they said mask while walking inside... I can deal with.  

Mask between bites of food is so outdated.  Think that came from the 1918 pandemic guidance.  

Mask inside are one thing but masking outside is anti-science. And masking on Coco Cay is beyond stupid. 

The CDC just admitted which a lot of doctors and scientists have been saying since last year, that the virus is aerosolized. So all the plexiglass and excessive sanitation is just theater. And how effective do you think a cloth mask is against an aerosolized virus. Lets just say its questionable.

I am all for Royal as a business requiring vaccinations at first but if they do, they should be able to have rules that actually follow the science when it comes to masking and magical social distancing. 

I have a July 17th cruise and if it does sail and requires vaccinated crew and passengers but yet has outdoor masking rules and asinine masking requirements when dining, I will cancel.   

As long as there are spending bills to be passed, the longer the pandemic panic will continue. 

Return to cruising signals end of pandemic in some politicians minds. 

You know the political saying, "never let a crisis go to waste"

56 minutes ago, nate91 said:

Also, why do we treat CDC guidance as gospel this year? No one has had a problem with medium rare steaks or eggs over easy before, and CDC guidance has been against those for years!

YES!! 1000 times yes! and dont eat raw cookie dough with eggs in it!

Just like the travel department makes travel advisories that US citizens can take in consideration and make their own decisions. I have been to Mexico before when the travel advisory said that I was in grave danger from Cartels. And yet....

16 minutes ago, JeffB said:

I'm going to go with two possibilities here:

(1) The CDC actually does have it's head up it's ass and will push for the phased restart as published. Mitigating against this line of thinking is that the thing is laughably outdated. Mitigating for it is that the CDC DOES have it's head up it's ass.

(2) This is an industry smoke screen or a tacitly agreed upon one off- from Del Rio. Mitigating against this is the cruise industry rarely has one spokes person speaking for the collective. Mitigating for it is the line of thought that the industry knows the CSO's phased restart is going to crash and burn under it's own weight of stupid or a Judge is going to enjoin enforcement of it.

Have you seen ANYTHING lately that would indicate that the CDC doesnt have its head up its ass? 

Have you seen the CDC guidelines for Children's Summer Camps? 

Science no longer lives at the CDC address. Politics moved in and kicked it out

26 minutes ago, alamode123 said:

No, safety first. Molecular genetics and molecular immunology degree, so I know the science.

With two different types of vaccines (mRNA and viral), the likelihood of anyone being allergic to both is approximately 0.0006 percent or 6 people for every million. The vast majority of people who aren't vaccinated are doing it by choice.

If you are choosing not to vaccinate, you're also choosing not to cruise. For everyone on board's safety.

Safety? That cuts both ways. There are safety risks one has to assume with getting not fully FDA approved vaccines as well. How well are they doing on VAERS reporting on side effects?  They may be low risk but so is the risk from being hospitalized and dying from Covid if you are not in vulnerable category. And then there is the whole matter of those that have had Covid previously and the % of population that have shown to have natural immunity from Covid. 

7 minutes ago, twangster said:

NCL is not happy

https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2021/05/06/norwegian-cruise-line-ceo-says-july-cruises-us-not-possible

I dont blame them for not being happy. They were the ones that came out in April, as mentioned, for 100% vaccinated plan for crew and passengers. They bent over backwards for the CDC. 

CDC has put out new guidelines that Covid only transmits in a straight line and Zig Zag patterns confuse and dissipates The Covids. 

34 minutes ago, alamode123 said:

I want everywhere possible to require a vaccine passport for entry when they are available. Flights, restaurants, theme parks, international travel.

It's safer for everyone, and would give an incentive for antivaxxers to change.

Before I begin. I am fully vaccinated because of my wife's profession. 

We are still talking about an Emergency Use authorized vaccine. There are still questions out there short term and long term about side effects just look at Johnson and Johnson disaster "handled by the FDA/CDC". The government is contributing to vaccine hesitancy the way they handled the J&J vaccine and messaging regarding what vaccinated people can do. Its insulting to lump everyone into one bucket who has their own reasons for not getting the vaccine and call them an anti-vaxxer. The CDC is driven by politics now. Science and Data no longer drive their decision making and recommendations now. Just look at the madness they are proposing for children at summer camps. Look at the CDC being driven by the teacher's unions to open schools back up. 

And now they are talking about children getting the vaccines. Children are more at risk from the Season Flu than they are from Covid. Study after study shows this. Parents have every right to evaluate whether they should vaccinate their children from Covid especially in this early phase.

To bring it back on topic. I am pro-business. I think businesses should have the right to set the terms of service in their personal establishments as long as it complies with the Law especially in areas of discrimination. With that said, I think Vaccine passports are a terrible idea for business because it affects their bottom line. Do we really want to create a defacto caste system? Where the "unwashed" are discriminated against because they refuse vaccination for whatever reason, be it existing medical conditions or personal risk assessment. If I were in my 20s and in the shape of my life, I would be VERY hesitant to get the vaccine for a .05 or so chance I may get Covid. We don't live in a zero risk world. Zero Covid is never going to happen because the cost of that would be devastating. 

I am old enough to remember that once upon a time, people could make their own risk assessment without the Nanny State trying to dictate unscientific guidelines upon the general populace. The leading comorbidity of Covid is obesity at 70%. 

Yes, Royal is in their right to make vaccines mandatory because they just want to get sailing again and stop bleeding so much cash. They have to appease the CDC Gods. I get it. But in the long run, I think its a bad business move to require vaccines for cruises once the pandemic is declared an end in the year 2309. 

I know this doesnt apply to cruising but it does speak to CDC overreach. Hopefully May 12th, a similar ruling will be found with the CSO in general 

https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/551910-federal-judge-vacates-cdcs-eviction-moratorium

8 minutes ago, Annie kaley said:

 

We have 60 days to go for our cruise. The 4th of July on Allure. We have a back up plan. My son and is girlfriend have started new jobs and don’t know what dates to give for vacation requests. I say if you are going to cancel do so people know how to plan their lives. Not fair to the consumer.

I agree. I have 73 days to go for my scheduled July 17th cruise. Check in is unavailable on the website. I understand the business side of trying to make July cruises happen and not wanting to have another round of cancellations but there is basically radio silence from the major cruise lines on the status of July cruises beyond the boilerplate, they would like to see cruising resume in July. I would love to take my scheduled cruise in July but I hope Royal comes out with some more updates on cruise resumption plans and at least give some tentative plan to let those with July cruises make appropriate plans and schedule other vacations especially in this market for summer travel which has crazy demand and the later Royal waits to give updates, the less fair it is to the consumer who has money tied up in July sailings. 

11 hours ago, Scatmanjack said:

 

Need firsthand accounts on this Ferry from Cozumel to the mainland...

 

Hear all the rumors/talk from Matt describing (in my mind) vomit inducing 20ft swells but how is it in real life?

 

Never had a problem with motion sickness on land or sea and have been to Cozumel enough times already.  Starting to consider options on the shore vs. staying on the island... (not the 8hr trek to Chichen Itza)

Paul

I have vacationed several times and Playa Del Carmen and been to and from Cozumel at least a dozen times and never have experienced anything bad on the ferry. Not to say that it can’t happen but just not my experience 

8 minutes ago, PG Cruiser said:

The news of cruises restarting was made waves almost everyday last week.  Why is it suddenly all quiet now?

For me, with a July 17th scheduled cruise is still the uncertainty of whether my cruise will sail as scheduled.

I am excited about the good news but anxious about when which July sailings may take place out of the US will be announced. 

Just a feeling of being in Limbo 

Better question. When will Royal make a decision about July cruises? We are now in May with July Cruises in limbo and vacation dollars being held up. 
 

when do you think they will announce decision on July cruises? 

34 minutes ago, ChrisK2793 said:

Gov. DeSantis suspends all remaining local COVID-19 orders

NO MORE local mask mandates anywhere in Florida 

https://www.news4jax.com/news/florida/2021/05/03/gov-desantis-suspends-all-remaining-local-covid-19-orders/

The CDC, which has encouraged Americans to get vaccinated, recommends wearing masks in indoor public spaces because “the vaccination status of other people or whether they are at increased risk for severe COVID-19 is likely unknown.”

DeSantis said that sends a message that vaccines don’t work.

“Because if the vaccines worked, that would be your ticket to basically live normally and make decisions for yourself. That would be the message that actually would work with people,” DeSantis said. “So I think that they’ve sent a message to say, You know what get vaccinated, but it really ain’t gonna do anything for you.”
 

 

 

Interesting ... can individual business owners still require masks be worn in their business like shoes and shirts are required? 

DeSantis is walking a fine line here and like others in this thread, I wonder if he is relying on a loophole or special exemption if it comes down to the state of Florida being the hold up. He is playing big government by dictating to business owners how to run their business on one hand while complaining about the federal government overreach. Business owners already have the right to refuse customers as long as it doesn’t violate discrimination laws just like some businesses in Florida still require customers to wear masks even though the state no longer mandate it. 
 

We already have vaccine requirements in the public sector, schools come to mind that can be waived with certain exceptions. Now, what I see is a HUGE difference is companies requiring an vaccine that is not fully approved by the FDA and we still have limited data on side effects, short and long term. And is it too much to ask to have a competent CDC??!! The Johnson and Johnson vaccine debacle has added and created more vaccine hesitancy and a chorus of “I told you so” from the anti-vaccine crowd. The government needs to accept their own responsibility in vaccine hesitancy before blaming the citizenry. I am fully vaccinated and I am no means an anti-vaxxer
 

Back to cruising. Royal is walking a fine line as well. They have to appease the CDC as well as keeping their customer base happy. I understand that as a business they have the right to determine terms for the services. However, and my bias will show now, I have fully paid for a July 17th cruise this summer and I have a 13 year old with some underlying medical considerations that even if the FDA approved vaccine for her age group, I don’t know if I would have her vaccinated right away. 
 

Royal, DeSantis and the CDC would all do well to show some common sense flexibility when creating and enforcing guidelines. 

27 minutes ago, JeffB said:

I agree with this and moreover, think it has legs. I don't think it will be 100% of the fleet sailing as in the pre-pandemic period but I can see a stepwise, 25%, 50%, 75% phase in as crew become available, trained and ships and ports are physically readied.

My news feeds today are full of articles talking a major shift in the Biden administration's pandemic approach. The message coming from "unnamed White House Officials ..... not authorized to discuss this," is that President Biden is shifting from what has been characterized as an overly cautious return to pre-pandemic activity to one where there is recognition that people are burned out on restrictions. Reports offer that the President recognizes this is particularly true for those that have pursued vaccination and therefore messaging should be more focused on things vaccinated people can do as the nation returns to a post pandemic normalcy.

A lot of us have been calling for this shift in messaging from the COVID boogey man approach, such messaging intended to keep the masses from being to cavalier about the virus, to here's how to get back to normalcy safely and, oh, by-the-way, if you get vaccinated you can do MORE! It's the right message and one I've been advocating for since mid-March when it became blindingly obvious that the vaccines worked better than expected.

So, what could happen? Clearly, the cruise lines are in the get ready to go mode. What amounts to testing of safety protocols has been on-going for months outside the US and the data from this testing is very encouraging. Chatter about the love-fest between the cruise lines and the CDC is noteworthy. Crew movement is obvious.  It is unmistakable that RCG is shifting it's itineraries from the 3-5d range to 7-8d range. While popular, shorter cruises are less profitable unless there's tons of volume. My sense is that cruisers are less interested in 3-5d itineraries right now when the longer ones are already appearing on offer. I would also bet that of the RCL and Celebrity cruises on the books for July, there's more than a few B2B bookings. If one is going to fly to Europe, shorter cruises are less appealing than longer ones.

So, yeah, I like the fluorescent light bulb analogy. There's pressure from multiple directions on the Biden administration to start easing restrictions and talking up a return to a post pandemic normalcy. I think the FL lawsuit is a factor. It's not a major player but could Justice Department staffers be telling White House staffers that it is likely FL will prevail in it's law suit and the CDC and HHS are going to look bad if they do? I think that is entirely possible and the President, who often doesn't get the nitty-gritty but rather has it filtered, is getting the picture on the downsides of this CSO/NSO nonsense as it pertains to jobs and a troubled cruise line industry struggling because of heavy handed US government policy.

Good news today.   

I hope you are right with the shift in messaging because the current messaging combined with the botched handling of the J&J hold and then restart is adding to vaccine hesitancy among those who are already on the fence about getting vaccinated. The administration cant complain about the unvaccinated while sending out mixed messaging on vaccine efficacy. Outdoor masking recommendations will be dropped soon as they should have been a year ago....but i digress. 

From a political standpoint, maybe the tone on Covid messaging will shift as well because of Bidens approval ratings that were released this week. 

Either way, I hope we see some movement before the date of the hearing in May. 

I will stay cautiously optimistic that many factors will move the needle but realize its a Herculean Task to get the CDC to back down at this point

28 minutes ago, JeffB said:

This is a good forward looking point. For the here and now I would prefer an expeditious ruling on FL's suit by the federal judge hearing the case by the end of this week. If we go past that time frame, the likelihood of sailings resuming from US ports in July dims considerably.  It's then that we'd have to rely on Congress getting one of the bills going or HHS canceling the PHE. That implies an August restart at the earliest and more like a September restart if the PHE expires sometime in July. 

WRT the Public Health emergency Declaration, when I started watching this late last year, The Secretary of HHS renews it on a 90d rolling basis. I've not seen a date certain for those renewals in the last two iterations. The PHE is issued under Section 319 of the Public Health Services (PHS) Act. The HHS Secretary can issue a PHE when he determines that an infectious disease or bioterrorism attack endangers the public's health. I've read that section and there is no specific definition of what constitutes a PHE or limits on the time frames or authority of the HHS Secretary. https://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/legal/Pages/phe-qa.aspx#:~:text=Under section 319 of the,%2C or 2) a PHE%2C

This is one of the complaints in the FL suit that alleges that only Congress has the authority to suspend commerce in US ports, the net effect of the NSO/CSO. That is also behind the two bills that have been introduced to try to return the cruise ship industry to operations from US ports. 

I'm not a lawyer but the arguments in the 5 articles in the FL complaint seem to me to be very strong. I mentioned early on within this blog that I suspected the extended time frame for the judge hearing this complaint could indicate that he is trying to get the parties to agree to a settlement rather than hear the case, rule for the state of FL and embarrass the Biden administrations and specifically CDC/HHS. Normally, this issue would not be present but obviously, a return to cruising is a political hot potato - we know this because one Senator was able to object to one of the Bills and hold up the entire thing. That's unfortunate because the grounds for it - jobs - was pretty on-point. 

So, we wait. 

IN another thread, it is stated that the hearing is now scheduled for May 12. As mentioned by others, I dont see how July cruises would happen given a May 12 hearing even with a favorable ruling unless Royal is being proactive and optimistic and gearing up for July cruises from US ports but from a business perspective that is a big risk unless Royal is privy to some inside info that would lead them to believe the May 12 hearing will go their way.