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With the new Vaccine information when it will be possible to cruise normally


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This is how the CDC cruise ship task force interprets that graph...  

Vaccine news (spoiler they are working 🙂 ) Another research was published iin Israel , this time with population of  1.2 Million  , 600 K of people that got the second shot already and 600 withou

Key thing I've come to learn and understand about the J&J vaccine over the weekend is that, while it's only 49%-72% effective (depending on the region you're looking at and how widespread variants

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  • 2 weeks later...

Vaccine news :

J&J vaccine found to be 66% effective in the global trail with 85% preventing severe disease 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/29/health/johnson-coronavirus-vaccine-results/index.html

Although not as good as Moderna and Pfizer but still good news considering it requires only single shot and easy to transfer.

Regarding the biggest Pfizer real time test (AKA Israel vaccine program) 3 M got the first shot and 1 M got the second one (30% of all population and 83% of people above 60) .

First results of people which are one week after the second shot shows that out of 250K people only 0.04% got infected and more important no one needed to be hospitalize.

Out of 750 K people that got the second shot but are not yet passed the 7 days point  315 were infected and only 16 needed to be hospitalized. (much better than the general population) 
That still should be verified for longer duration  to see the real impact of the vaccine but its going the right direction

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@Traveler, very good news indeed. Unfortunately, the new variants from the UK, South Africa, and Brazil are reported to have multiple mutations in their spike proteins that appear to make them all at least somewhat resistant to antibodies produced against the "original" strain. There are newly reported results from a Novavax vaccine trials in the UK and South Africa showing the same kind of ~90% effectiveness against "original" and UK strains (UK trial), but only 49% against the new variant (South Africa trial, which is reported to be smaller and less-definitive). Tried to find a direct link, but these results are as reported in the link I shared on the separate thread about the new travel bans for UK, Brazil, and South Africa:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/28/south-africa-variant-south-carolina/

Lots of talk about possible booster shots, and new vaccines made to fight these variants that share the same mutation in spike protein. While getting everyone vaccinated against the original strain is still of paramount importance to eliminate spread as much as possible, it looks like we're going to still have a slog ahead of us while we deal with the emergence of new variants.

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55850352

 

The BBC report that the Novavax vaccine was 60% effective against the South African variant, not brilliant but better than the seasonal flu jabs we get each year.

"The Novavax jab, which is given in two doses, was shown to be 89.3% effective at preventing Covid-19 in participants in its Phase 3 clinical trial in the UK, and around 86% effective at protecting against the new UK variant.

The Phase 3 trials - the final stage before a vaccine is looked at by a regulator - enrolled more than 15,000 people aged between 18-84, of whom 27% were older than 65, US firm Novavax said.

In the South African part of the trial, where most of the cases were the South African variant of the virus, the vaccine was 60% effective among those without HIV."

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38 minutes ago, JLMoran said:

@Traveler, very good news indeed. Unfortunately, the new variants from the UK, South Africa, and Brazil are reported to have multiple mutations in their spike proteins that appear to make them all at least somewhat resistant to antibodies produced against the "original" strain. There are newly reported results from a Novavax vaccine trials in the UK and South Africa showing the same kind of ~90% effectiveness against "original" and UK strains (UK trial), but only 49% against the new variant (South Africa trial, which is reported to be smaller and less-definitive). Tried to find a direct link, but these results are as reported in the link I shared on the separate thread about the new travel bans for UK, Brazil, and South Africa:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/28/south-africa-variant-south-carolina/

Lots of talk about possible booster shots, and new vaccines made to fight these variants that share the same mutation in spike protein. While getting everyone vaccinated against the original strain is still of paramount importance to eliminate spread as much as possible, it looks like we're going to still have a slog ahead of us while we deal with the emergence of new variants.

Agree , the mutations are the extra parameters that need to be take into account.

In Israel the UK is now very common , the South African one although less common also exist, that is the reason that the new cases is not dropping as fast as expect, few more weeks and we will know. 

More important , if the vaccine will still be less effective to prevent getting the C19  but will still prevent  severe disease its also something , after all , no one stops  the cruise industry when people get a flu ...

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I think people and this includes me kinda miss the point with these vaccines. Its not just about preventing Covid-19 altogether, its about not getting severe sickness, hospitalization and death most importantly.  If it can turn it basically into a common cold you get over in a few days that is a huge win obviously. I have shortsighted on this fact myself. The J&J vaccine is very, very intriguing. One shot and done, easily transported and stored. J&J can manufacture at an incredible pace and capacity. 

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1 hour ago, cruisellama said:

We'll probably find out we need this thing every year just like an influenza shot.  But this first round of pokes are key to getting travel allowed.

It just may turn into that because of these new strains or variants. I already get the flu shot so it won't be a huge deal but rather not get it every year.

Speaking of the flu shot. I hear Moderna is working on mRNA vaccines for a better flu shot and that would be very welcome. 

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8 minutes ago, RCIfan1912 said:

It just may turn into that because of these new strains or variants. I already get the flu shot so it won't be a huge deal but rather not get it every year.

Speaking of the flu shot. I hear Moderna is working on mRNA vaccines for a better flu shot and that would be very welcome. 

mRNA is big.  Not just for COVID 19.  Cancer, flu and even the common cold is in its sights.  Too soon to tell, but very promising.  I am glad to be alive in the 21st Century, and not the 16th Century.

😉

Curt from Canada

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5 minutes ago, Curt From Canada said:

mRNA is big.  Not just for COVID 19.  Cancer, flu and even the common cold is in its sights.  Too soon to tell, but very promising.  I am glad to be alive in the 21st Century, and not the 16th Century.

😉

Curt from Canada

Yes, cancer too. Now that would be something. I'd like to see that gone in my lifetime. My dad passed away from colin cancer that spread. No family should have to go through that. 

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5 minutes ago, RCIfan1912 said:

Yes, cancer too. Now that would be something. I'd like to see that gone in my lifetime. My dad passed away from colin cancer that spread. No family should have to go through that. 

This is not necessarily a topic for a cruise blog, but your words have touched me.  This is not a cheery topic, but an important one.  My grandfather passed away from colon cancer as well (long ago ... I am not a young man).  It affected me significantly, and hurts over 40 years later.

mRNA (and some other similars) have the ability to energize our immune systems against the cancer "invaders".  It still is not proven, but it may be the best bet we have (currently).  I pray for the day these game changers save millions.

Curt from Canada

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5 minutes ago, Curt From Canada said:

This is not necessarily a topic for a cruise blog, but your words have touched me.  This is not a cheery topic, but an important one.  My grandfather passed away from colon cancer as well (long ago ... I am not a young man).  It affected me significantly, and hurts over 40 years later.

mRNA (and some other similars) have the ability to energize our immune systems against the cancer "invaders".  It still is not proven, but it may be the best bet we have (currently).  I pray for the day these game changers save millions.

Curt from Canada

And I'm sorry for your loss. It never fully goes away. He was only 61. Had a lot of life to live. That was 2008. 

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On 1/20/2021 at 3:55 AM, S0nny said:

2nd dose of the Pfizer vaccine received on 1/19!

I have injection site pain (I didn't have any on the first one), but that's it so far. Too bad they canceled my April cruise 😭 I was hopeful this little card would be my golden ticket to normalcy ... at least if only for a week or two... 

willy wonka and the chocolate factory GIF

I'm number 214,897 in my county.

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Key thing I've come to learn and understand about the J&J vaccine over the weekend is that, while it's only 49%-72% effective (depending on the region you're looking at and how widespread variants are there) at blocking infection, it has been 100% effective at preventing death due to the disease and over 90% effective at preventing the disease from becoming serious enough to require hospitalization. And those latter stats include all the people in the trial who've had the various variants. That's on par with the other vaccines, and as others here have noted it's a game changer when combined with the fact that it's stable at standard refrigerator temperatures, only needs a single dose, and can be produced in much larger quantities.

@WAAAYTOOO, this vaccine still isn't what you'd call a "traditional" vaccine based on a dead or weakened version of the virus. It's delivered using an Adenovirus (i.e., cold virus) that has been genetically modified to carry the DNA for producing the spike protein, but also modified so it can't reproduce itself. Same end result -- "infected" cells at the injection site produce just the spike protein, which gets secreted from the cells into the blood, and an immune response is triggered.

This is a newer approach to vaccine design that's been researched for decades, although the first such vaccine was only approved last July (for Ebola) -- see this article from the New York Times that explains it all at a high level.

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33 minutes ago, JLMoran said:

over 90% effective at preventing the disease from becoming serious enough to require hospitalization.

Just a pedantic point here: it's actually also 100% effective at preventing hospitalization per the trial data. Severe disease is classified as low oxygen (below 95% saturation) with or without hospitalization (and a bunch of other criteria)... Pfizer also had a case of severe disease classified this way that also didn't require hospitalization. So even better news!

I think you and I have discussed this earlier, and we seem to be in agreement that if the bar is no nCoV-19 anywhere on a ship, then cruises will never sail again. If the bar is instead a much more reasonable metric based on cases of severe covid, then once we have decent, population level immunological resistance to disease via the vaccines and natural infection then we should be good to go.

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I think the bar for the vaccines should be decreased hospitalization and death. People still can get flu after a flu vaccine but most will have mild symptoms and not require hospitalization.  That’s why I’m pretty excited about J&J vaccine. One shot = quicker availability for the public.  I’ve already received 2 shots of Moderna and would’ve signed up for J&J if I didn’t have earlier access 

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