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CDC Conditional Sailing Order


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18 hours ago, JeffB said:

Not to be argumentative but, since we're speculating, I think RCL and Celebrity know with some level of certainty which cruises will sail and on what dates those sailings will occur.

I'm not so sure.   The CDC hasn't changed it's position on cruise ships.  The CDC does not them want sailing with passengers.

The CDC was directed not to extend the NSO.  Okay fine.  So they came up with the CSO where they have numerous checkpoints they need to approve on a ship by ship basis.  If anything they have strengthened their grasp on cruise ships and have taken it from yes or no on a global basis to finite control on a ship by ship basis with elusive verbiage and no clear path forward.  

As this game starts to play out not only can the CDC "move the goalposts" but they can change the sport being played on the field mid-game.  Cruise lines show up with a football team ready to play only to discover at half time it's now a lacrosse game and they lose.

I think the CDC is buying time hoping for a new administration that will accept their findings without interference.  

As a result I don't think cruise lines know what ship will be allowed to sail or when.  

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Or at least refrain from posting the same negativity on multiple threads. 😉

Where do I sign up to be a test cruiser?  I can be at Port Everglades in 20 minutes

It sounds like the CDC actually listened to the comments submitted by the public While CDC bases its public health determinations on the best available science and not on public opinio

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8 hours ago, twangster said:

I'm not so sure.   The CDC hasn't changed it's position on cruise ships.  The CDC does not them want sailing with passengers.

The CDC was directed not to extend the NSO.  Okay fine.  So they came up with the CSO where they have numerous checkpoints they need to approve on a ship by ship basis.  If anything they have strengthened their grasp on cruise ships and have taken it from yes or no on a global basis to finite control on a ship by ship basis with elusive verbiage and no clear path forward.  

As this game starts to play out not only can the CDC "move the goalposts" but they can change the sport being played on the field mid-game.  Cruise lines show up with a football team ready to play only to discover at half time it's now a lacrosse game and they lose.

I think the CDC is buying time hoping for a new administration that will accept their findings without interference.  

As a result I don't think cruise lines know what ship will be allowed to sail or when.  

So true.  I just posted this on the facebook page:

the biggest lack of clarity is in terms of what will be considered "cruising safely." Will the CDC view one case of Covid-19, a statistical "outbreak", or failure to adhere to meet the standards as the end all be all. Clearly, not following rules will result in one line being shut down but will it shut down the industry? Will one "outbreak" on one ship out of 10 mean anything for a particular cruise line? Is one Covid case too much for the CDC? None of this has been made clear and this is problematic. Trying to kick a field goal with moving goal posts is impossible. I think these things need to be set out in advance in a very clear manner so passengers, cruise lines, and other industry partners understand what is at stake.

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37 minutes ago, Tanner said:

So true.  I just this on the facebook page:

the biggest lack of clarity is in terms of what will be considered "cruising safely." Will the CDC view one case of Covid-19, a statistical "outbreak", or failure to adhere to meet the standards as the end all be all. Clearly, not following rules will result in one line being shut down but will it shut down the industry? Will one "outbreak" on one ship out of 10 mean anything for a particular cruise line? Is one Covid case too much for the CDC? None of this has been made clear and this is problematic. Trying to kick a field goal with moving goal posts is impossible. I think these things need to be set out in advance in a very clear manner so passengers, cruise lines, and other industry partners understand what is at stake.

Deliberate ambiguity allows for control.

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5 minutes ago, cruisellama said:

Deliberate ambiguity allows for control.

Well stated. And the changing goalposts that a few have mentioned. I refrain from politics here, but the fact remains that much of this cruise shutdown and pandemic in general, has become more politicized than a health related situation should be. I have seen many organizations, governmental or otherwise, use this as an opportunity to gain more power, and I'm afraid the CDC is one of the organizations that sees the pandemic as allowing them to have broader powers than they had before 2020.

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1 hour ago, mattymay said:

Control the virus, then the CDC has no say.

 

Yes, and to me it seems the number one inhibitor to controlling the virus is freedom of movement. Lockdowns work in controlling the virus but cripple the economy at the same time. Plus the greater opposition to the lockdowns result in a lockdown that lasts longer and is less effective.

Who knows where the balance needs to be.

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This morning I see on RCI page that cruises are now suspended through December 31, 2020. After reading the CDC protocol I suppose it will take a while to satisfy those requirements. Twangster, I appreciate you’re solid updates and insight into the world of cruising and let’s all hope 2021 is a good and safe year for cruising. 

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49 minutes ago, BarbieBell said:

This morning I see on RCI page that cruises are now suspended through December 31, 2020. After reading the CDC protocol I suppose it will take a while to satisfy those requirements. Twangster, I appreciate you’re solid updates and insight into the world of cruising and let’s all hope 2021 is a good and safe year for cruising. 

Indeed and more cruises in early 2021 may cancel simply because the restart will begin with a very limited number of ships.  For guests not booked on one of them, they may find their cruise is cancelled. 

Twenty six ships in the fleet, one or two will begin to sail at some point "sooner".   That leaves twenty four ships not sailing until some later time after that.  So there will be more cancellations coming.  

This will be a process but we will get through it.  

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4 hours ago, twangster said:

Indeed and more cruises in early 2021 may cancel simply because the restart will begin with a very limited number of ships.  For guests not booked on one of them, they may find their cruise is cancelled. 

Twenty six ships in the fleet, one or two will begin to sail at some point "sooner".   That leaves twenty four ships not sailing until some later time after that.  So there will be more cancellations coming.  

This will be a process but we will get through it.  

Right on..   Q4 is another write-off, they wouldn't sufficiently move the needle in Dec, might as well use the time to prepare for a safe,  but limited restart.

 

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I was just looking at Grandeur cruises remaining on the website.  Only one, Jan. 2, 2021 is 7 nights or shorter which is a condition of the CDC's CSO.  She has nothing on the calendar beyond March and nothing else currently available for Grandeur satisfies the CSO.  I can't see Royal making Grandeur an initial start up ship.  

This ship may have sailed her last Royal cruise.  The CSO may be the end of her unless Royal comes up with a new plan for her.

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Trying not to be negative.. I want to get back to the US as much as anyone, but with a 100,000 new daily cases, how is the CDC going to justify letting these ships sail? Correct me if I am wrong, but it’s worse than when the original no sail order was put in place? And if they do allow real passengers, well this framework could have been put in place from the beginning.

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1 hour ago, mattymay said:

Trying not to be negative.. I want to get back to the US as much as anyone, but with a 100,000 new daily cases, how is the CDC going to let these ships sail? Correct me if I am wrong, but it’s worse than when the original no sail order was put in place?

They won't.  That's the point of the CSO.  

The milestones have yet to be detailed to the point that any cruise line can determine what they actually need to do.  That will take 30 - 60 days.  Then cruise lines can continue to progress towards the first step of many in the CDC qualification process.  That will be in 60 - 90 day window.  Then the CDC will be under a new administration that will support them.  

The CDC will drag its feet and allow ships to advance toward CSO certification at a snail's pace.   It will just so happen that the CDC will allow cruise ships to sail once the pandemic numbers are down - at some future time.   2021?  Perhaps.  2022?  2025? 2030?  Only time will tell when the CDC will let cruise ships sail.   

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32 minutes ago, twangster said:

They won't.  That's the point of the CSO.  

The milestones have yet to be detailed to the point that any cruise line can determine what they actually need to do.  That will take 30 - 60 days.  Then cruise lines can continue to progress towards the first step of many in the CDC qualification process.  That will be in 60 - 90 day windows.  Then the CDC will be under a new administration that will support them.  

The CDC will drags its feet and allow ships to advance toward CSO certification at a snail's pace.   It will just so happen that the CDC will allow cruise ships to sail once the pandemic numbers are down - at some future time.   2021?  Perhaps.  2022?  2025? 2030?  Only time will tell when the CDC will let cruise ships sail.   

Thank goodness the CDC doesn't have any control over cruise ship operations in any place outside the US. Hopefully by late 2021 / early 2022 there will be a widely available and effective vaccine, and US citizens will be allowed to travel to Europe, Asia, Australia / New Zealand, or countries for cruises and vacations as long as they have proof of vaccination.

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On 11/2/2020 at 12:35 PM, twangster said:

I think the CDC is buying time hoping for a new administration that will accept their findings without interference.  

 

Looking at the election results, it appears that CDC will have a different administration.

I could see the new administration flexing their muscles and locking down everything they can. 

On the other hand, I could see the tone of COVID reporting in the American media taking a radically different tone (i.e. "look how far we've come.  Deaths and cases are down by X number of cases).  If this happens, the new administration may open things up even though nothing has fundamentally changed, but people will feel better about it.

We shall see how this plays out.

Always remember the ancient Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times!"

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22 hours ago, twangster said:

They won't.  That's the point of the CSO.  

The milestones have yet to be detailed to the point that any cruise line can determine what they actually need to do.  That will take 30 - 60 days.  Then cruise lines can continue to progress towards the first step of many in the CDC qualification process.  That will be in 60 - 90 day window.  Then the CDC will be under a new administration that will support them.  

The CDC will drag its feet and allow ships to advance toward CSO certification at a snail's pace.   It will just so happen that the CDC will allow cruise ships to sail once the pandemic numbers are down - at some future time.   2021?  Perhaps.  2022?  2025? 2030?  Only time will tell when the CDC will let cruise ships sail.   

Will there be an industry beyond 2021 if no sailing?  Maybe non-US operations can keep things afloat, but a lot of US port cities who support the industry would feel the sting.

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12 minutes ago, cruisellama said:

Will there be an industry beyond 2021 if no sailing?  Maybe non-US operations can keep things afloat, but a lot of US port cities who support the industry would feel the sting.

Yes there will be a cruise industry after the pandemic in my opinion.  I don't see the entire industry disappearing.  The pandemic has caused massive disruptions to many lives, economies and industries around the world.  Like there have been airlines that have disappeared we have seen some cruise lines disappear.  The impact to the cruise industry may not be over yet.  Only time will tell but the sting isn't over, the virus didn't disappear on Nov. 4th as some projected it would.  

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Well a little bit of good information.  Looks like some conditional provisions have been met.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/crew-disembarkations-commercial-travel.html

 

Currently Grandeur of the Seas is the only ship marked as "Red"

Personally I see the timeline for stuff to be something to the effect of having all the facilities and such onboard and in order by the end of December, then being allowed to do some "test" sailings in early to mid January.  Not sure from what I have read but I am thinking the CDC will require each ship to go through a test and do simulations where all crew have the ability to deal with the simulation directly and not just observe.  Then the 60 day window starts which would kill everything till at least mid March if not further with the new administration in the drivers seat.  

 

Then again with the new admin in place I can see attempts at forcing nationwide shelter orders in place.  IMHO that will cause a major revolt and some things could change even more drastically after that.

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19 hours ago, MuttMutt said:

Well a little bit of good information.  Looks like some conditional provisions have been met.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/crew-disembarkations-commercial-travel.html

 

I think this requirement has been established for many months.  It has been the mechanism that allows crew to be coming and going through the U.S. over the past several months.  You may recall a big flap in the spring when some cruise line CEO's didn't immediately sign the acknowledgement that held them responsible for any misstep.

While it's relevant in the sense that they can't move crew without the signed acknowledgments, this marking of ship green or red pre-dates the CSO.  

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On 11/2/2020 at 1:35 PM, twangster said:

I think the CDC is buying time hoping for a new administration that will accept their findings without interference.  

It doesn't look good with the new administrations plan.

Biden's plan says it will be used as more of a "dial" approach that will determine the risk of spread using evidence-based guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Biden on Monday is slated to announce his coronavirus task force, which will be headed by Vivek Murthy, the former U.S. surgeon general, and David Kessler, the former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration.

In addition, another member of the task force expected to play a key role will be Dr. Zeke Emanuel, an adviser to Biden and the architect of the Affordable Care Act. Emanuel told MarketWatch in an interview that it could be as late as November 2021 before the United States will be able to get out of the pandemic.

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5 minutes ago, mworkman said:

It doesn't look good with the new administrations plan.

Biden's plan says it will be used as more of a "dial" approach that will determine the risk of spread using evidence-based guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Biden on Monday is slated to announce his coronavirus task force, which will be headed by Vivek Murthy, the former U.S. surgeon general, and David Kessler, the former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration.

In addition, another member of the task force expected to play a key role will be Dr. Zeke Emanuel, an adviser to Biden and the architect of the Affordable Care Act. Emanuel told MarketWatch in an interview that it could be as late as November 2021 before the United States will be able to get out of the pandemic.

Doesn't mean we can't sail safely with protocols in place.

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