LizzyBee23

I think we agree, but Singapore has single digit cases of detected community transmission right now (maybe double digit, but you get my drift). It would be disingenuous to say "we have zero cases in Singapore because of these protocol" when it likely isn't causative. And like you said, we don't need it to be! I think the cruise lines obviously get this, but as members of the thinking public I think it's kind of our duty to pre-empt the idea that we're willing to wait for zero cases to claim victory... I see the notion that a single case (or even dozens of cases) will derail the return of cruising too often.

I'm not suggesting the CDC should wait for zero in the community.  We are rapidly approaching the point where two lines on a graph will cross making it safe to resume cruising very soon.  As community cases continue to drop and vaccinations continue to climb their lines cross on a graph and it's safe enough to cruise.   

An interesting question, but probably moot as the two vaccines being used in the US will probably have all of the data they need to file for full approval by April and May.

It's also that Singapore has aggressively contained the virus and has a fraction of the incidence rate we do.

My comment isn't about cruising in general so much as what states are doing in response to the CDC refusing to budge on guidelines. It is a quagmire for private businesses right now, even though there haven't been any big lawsuits yet.

My comment isn't about cruising in general so much as what states are doing in response to the CDC refusing to budge on guidelines. It is a quagmire for private businesses right now, even though there haven't been any big lawsuits yet.

Today that is correct but no one is saying cruising in the US should resume 9am tomorrow morning in the US.
One day soon the US will also have low enough rates like Singapore does today to allow cruising.  We can begin to prepare for that and that begins with the CDC issuing technical details for the cruise lines so they can begin to prepare, train and acquire any equipment required.  
Once the cruise lines know what they must do it will take months for them to get ready.  

Would love to see Florida try but Federal law supersedes State since Federal law is the controlling factor of U.S. boaders, ports and aviationn.

I don't know, I think we're a week or so removed from the the technical guidance being released, and I truly expect it to be underwhelming relative to what RC's healthy sail panel is already recommending. The fact that the CDC asked for details about RC's tracelet reads to me like they're copying their homework so to speak. I think things will move relatively quickly from that point. 
Also, the CSO expires at the end of October... There will be mounting political pressure for things to go back to normal before the holidays, no matter what the experts are calling for (not saying that to discredit them, but the world doesn't exist in a test tube). It's possible we'll be a lot closer to normal, even though that seems so far off now.

You're probably right, I think both of the outcomes are within the realm of reason. I think our perpetual election cycle also helps here... No one is going to want to run on ruining two Christmases in a row in 2022, and red states are starting to up the political pressure, having apparently been vindicated by falling case numbers (not commenting on whether that's right or wrong, just a note).
Florida is also racing to pass an immunity bill through its legislature that would essentially render the CDC guidelines legally toothless within the state. If they continue to be so out of touch, it's not impossible to imagine their influence waning even further.

I don't know, I think we're a week or so removed from the the technical guidance being released, and I truly expect it to be underwhelming relative to what RC's healthy sail panel is already recommending. The fact that the CDC asked for details about RC's tracelet reads to me like they're copying their homework so to speak. I think things will move relatively quickly from that point. 
Also, the CSO expires at the end of October... There will be mounting political pressure for things to go back to normal before the holidays, no matter what the experts are calling for (not saying that to discredit them, but the world doesn't exist in a test tube). It's possible we'll be a lot closer to normal, even though that seems so far off now.

I agree and optimistic that there will be some type of sailing from U.S. port but I HIGHLY doubt it that the entire fleet will be sailing. The earliest I see anything happening is around Labor Day and that's hoping that the CDC will soon get their act together.

Look!  A cute baby!

I touched on this problem in my original post above. On Friday, the NYTs did a surprisingly apologetic piece on the damage being done by journalists (and scientists) contributing to the the nihilism you speak of. It carries over to anti-vaxer thought as well, that is to say, "if the vaccines have so many caveats about effectiveness, possible side effects, and worst of all the potential for re-infection by a variant even if you have been vaccinated, why bother."
First none of this stuff - and it's coming out of the mouths of respected sources like Fauci, for example we're making great progress, the vaccines are working ..... but, but, but, are factually accurate. It's also misleading. These "experts" (and they are) send a message that we aren't sophisticated or knowledgeable enough to understand details.
Here are the facts: the vaccines already in circulation to include Pfizer's, Moderna's, AZ's and as far as trials go, J&J, all have efficacy v. all three known and studied variants (there are actually over 200 of them but the variants being studied the most are ones that have mutations in the spike proteins and demonstrably increase rate of transmission or R0).  I can't speak for the Chinese, Russian or Indian vaccines. Casual and cursory looks indicate these vaccines are working too.
What large scale studies being conducted in Israel by apolitical, public health agencies have already demonstrated or early and small scale studies point to is that NO ONE is getting seriously ill or dying regardless of the genomic structure of SARS-2 that is the infecting agent. NO ONE! There are RARE occasions (although the press will make you think it's in the millions) of vaccinated people that get re-infected. Serology studies of these people indicate that SARS-2 viral loads are very low (reduces shedding) and that symptoms on re-infection are similar to the common cold - this is a coronavirus after all. You'll catch a cold by the same means that people were catching COVID a year ago. Vaccinated people just aren't getting sent to the ICU and dying anymore
There is also considerable evidence that vaccinated people - even after the first shot - are protected, don't need to mask or distance in all circumstances and many of the state and local patch-work mitigation measures can be safely ignored. That doesn't mean its a free-for-all. All levels of Illness from seasonal Influenza have been significantly suppressed. That is because of human behaviors being followed for COVID by a lot of folks. It is one of the reasons, along with the normal trends of viruses and the introduction of vaccines that every COVID metric is on the decline and downward trending and not just by a little. Those kinds of sensible measures should continue to be followed - wash your hands, even wearing a mask in enclosed, poorly ventilated spaces where people gather is a good idea that we should continue to practice as most Asians do.

I believe yes, but I also think I'm pessimistic about a COVID free future, meaning in my view the virus is here to stay. The best vaccines (mRNA for now, though Sputnik and Novavax are close and may be just as good) seem to knock down OG COVID and the B117 variant by about 90% across the board (researchers have even started postulating this is the case for asymptomatic spread).
Buuuuut, there is almost no feasible solution that gets the mRNA vaccines into every arm, and even so we know there are some variants they aren't as effective against. We also know the threshold for herd immunity is probably north of 80% given how transmissable it is. All of that taken together, to me, means there will be dry tinder, so to speak, even on a fully vaccinated cruise ship that skews older (consider that a 90% reduction in hospitalization and death means a 60 year old has roughly the same relative risk as an unvaccinated 20 year old, which is still 2x higher than the youngest children). I think any solution that hinges on a perfect performance in mitigation of viral spread on a cruise ship is going to include the full gamut of social distancing protocol with or without vaccination for all adults, and can only set sail when the epidemiological data suggests virus transmission is low (which, since most experts now believe we're headed for seasonality could mean no fall or winter cruising)
Orr... We learn to live with it.

With the kicker being (as I understand it) "that the cruise lines can access" it. 

What would be too much???
To book a cruise knowing of all the restrictions and measures RC and governments of ports of call have implemented then have to listen to fellow guests who signed up agreeing to all of the measures constantly complain about it.

We get the same cards... The unblinded participants who were in the initial vaccine arm can either pick them up at the 6 month follow up or earlier from the trial sites if needed. I think they'll have 50% of their enrollment at +6 months in April, so that might be about when you see an extension of the 3 month mark to 6 months (helps that we'll have the big general population data at 3 months around then, too).
This is all in reference to Pfizer, btw. Moderna is a week or so behind.
Edit: it just occured to me I have no idea what happens to the phase I or II participants, who like you said, have a good chance to receive a much different product. I'll ask tomorrow (when I get my second shot! *Happy dance*).

Those were symptomatic cases, so while amazing news it doesn't answer the question of to what degree asymptomatic spread is deterred. I think the only vaccine we have good info for is AZ, which IIRC showed no change in the rate of asymptomatic infection even while showing good reduction of symptomatic infection. Given most of the world is going to have to rely on that vaccine at least partially, I don't think we can be confident the vaccine (whoops, "virus") won't continue to spread.
Just going to drop one more time that this is all still great news. Another exposure to a coronavirus doesn't mean much if all you get is the sniffles and not a 7 night stay in your local hospital with lung scarring.

Feeling crappy is supposedly a sign of a well-tuned immune system, so there's that as a silver lining.

I'm hopeful that if we make it to next fall without another major spike in cases that may not be the case. Who knows though. We'll be making a trip to Canaveral to either watch some rockets launch and pay homage to the mouse, or to get onboard our ship in November. Either way, we've got more than enough masks to make it work.

I think welcome to most of the rest of the country, if the trends are to be believed. About Florida specifically, an epidimeologist there predicted COVID will have burned out to a minimus by the end of June. He held back on predicting what the fall and winter would look like.

I agree. It’s amazing how numbers have gone down. At my hospital we had 65 COVID patients 3 weeks ago, today 6. Fingers crossed we don’t have another surge.

Hydroxychloroquine and Zinc for everyone !

Sitting on a balcony if the neighbor forward of you is also sitting on their balcony likely means you are breathing some of their air.  
When neighbors light up a cigarette it's very evident even at cruise speed.  If I can smell the smoke they exhale, could I not inhale the odorless virus they exhale?
Is being maskless on your own balcony a risk or not?  Interior and OV cabins don't sound so bad after all.
Ugh.  Vaccines for everyone.