LizzyBee23

10 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

So what about kids below 11?

Mr. Bayley said that age range is not enormous, "obviously we carry a lot of kids 11 and under, but relatively speaking, as a percentage of our total guest counts, it's quite a small number. So we're not overly concerned with that."

 

What does that mean? Not concerned with the numbers of under 11 affecting the 95% threshold? Or not concerned if they have to ban those kids?

I read it as they won't push it over the threshold, which seems true. I imagine the guidelines will be something like require everyone who can be to be vaccinated, otherwise they must show up with a doctor's note saying that they 1.) can't be vaccinated and 2.) are fit to sail. I can tell you that the number of doctors willing to write such a note will be infinitesimally small. That would reserve the remaining 5% for those that legitimately need an exception but are otherwise healthy and kids under 12. I don't share Mr. Bayley's or Mr. Fain's optimism that a vaccine will be approved for children under 16 in time for the summer, though.

7 minutes ago, karl_nj said:

And they may have a point.  According to The Economist a 15 year old male who tests positive for COVID-19 has under a .01% chance of death and a .6% chance of hospitalization.  

See how age and illnesses change the risk of dying from covid-19 | The Economist

 

But I don't want to drag this into covid politics, so I won't comment further.

 

 

 

I agree completely, and do think they have a point. The analysis that I think is relevant here wrt to kids cruising again is that you have two very risk-averse organizations coming to a head over this issue: FDA doesn't want to approve a vaccine for kids under EUA, and CDC is pushing for population vaccination levels that aren't achievable (especially without pediatric vaccines) to mitigate risk to their satisfaction (I think we can all agree that's an order of magnitude lower than what we find acceptable - signed someone who thinks it's criminal to cook a steak above med-rare).

15 minutes ago, karl_nj said:

 

Dealing with the J&J stuff has probably also been taking up everyone's time.

Plus, until now, there has been enough demand for the vaccine from those 16+.  Only recently has demand slowed down.

I listened to the entire VRBPAC meeting for the Pfizer EUA... I'm a huge nerd, had some free time back then, and was part of the Pfizer trial so had a vested interest in what they were discussing re: unblinding. There were pediatricians on the panel who voted against approval because of the language including 16 year olds, citing their belief that there is no pediatric emergency which could justify authorizing a vaccine under EUA for children.

EDIT: And to add, this was in the Nov-Dec timeframe of last year, when cases were climbing as fast as they ever have to the tragic peak we all remember.

14 minutes ago, karl_nj said:

I believe Pfizer completed trials for 12-15 and has submitted them to the CDC for approval. 

They submitted at the beginning of April, and no word on when the necessary panels will convene to discuss approval. Contrast that with meetings announced within 72 hours for the first round of EUA's. Reads to me like the relevant parties are doing the requisite nemawashi and coming up short, so no meeting has been scheduled. 

50 minutes ago, JeffB said:

Here's another one ....... Greece is a CDC designated Level 4 - don't travel there country. Greece just opened to international travelers including Americans today. If you can show proof of vaccination or a negative COVID test you can travel to Greece and don't have to quarantine. Are Greek public health officials idiots? Nope, the Greek government has correctly ascertained that the cost of restricting tourism in Greece, fearing SARS2 transmission from travel associated mobility, is higher than the cost of dealing with the low risk that vaccinated or even unvaccinated tourists with proof of being COVID free will spread SARS2.

This is rational and pragmatic. The Greek government could stand as a shining example to the US government and the irrationality of the US CDC driving the Biden Administrations irrational public health policy that is locking down the cruise industry.    

I think you've said before the bureaucrats and scientists at CDC cannot properly bound their perception of risk. "One can never be too careful" is practically their motto, and I'm concerned that people are beginning to adopt that old axiom into their own lives to an unsustainable degree... We used to consider people who were several degrees of "too careful" beyond normalcy as having some sort of obsessive disorder.

What I've been looking for lately is what the FDA is going to do with Pfizer's request to expand the EUA into adolescent children given the apparent success of a very small trial. Pfizer submitted the request 10 days ago and I haven't heard anything from FDA. If you'll remember, during the first VRBPAC meeting that led to Pfizer's EUA, four pediatricians voted against approval because of the inclusion of 16 year olds. To them, putting the entire vaccine on hold for a few more weeks to resubmit without 16 year olds was more important than the alternative (and keep in mind we were at the peak when thousands were dying every day). Their justification was essentially that there is no emergency for 16-17 year olds that could justify giving them the vaccine under EUA instead of waiting for full step-down trials or full approval. Now the ball is back in FDA's court, where they essentially get the chance to say "there's no emergency for kids" again while CDC pretends like the sky is falling and no one can get back to normal until little Susie gets her shots.

11 hours ago, steverk said:

I agree that legal action wouldn't help July cruises.

Call me paranoid, but I'm increasingly worried that CDC will find some way to extend the ban past November.  Legal action might help on that one.

I don't think that's paranoid... COVID isn't going to be eradicated, and thus if it follows typical cold/flu patterns we'll see higher case counts in the fall/winter. It shouldn't matter to us independently of hospitalizations and deaths, but the goalposts have been shifting tremendously and it could very well be what the CDC uses to justify another round of public health measures right before the holidays.

On 4/2/2021 at 5:13 AM, Traveler said:

4. The number of people who are allowed on the ship will be calculate by the fowling simple formula  length of the ship divided by the number of floors multiply by the integral of the ship stern multiply by square root   of -1/2 +   but no more than 10.5 including the crew.

I'm just happy to see the Navier-Stokes equation on a cruise forum.

Edit: and used appropriately, since as far as I know, there's still a millennium prize out there for anyone who can solve it (meaning as far as we know, it's unsolvable).

I, for the most part, agree with tiered distribution strategies orchestrated by the government... However, it should be rigorously . measured by the ability of the system to deliver on one metric and one metric alone: the number of shots delivered to a state successfully going into arms. Perhaps you make a small allowance for the fact that it is in some ways harder to reach the elderly and at risk people sitting in their homes who may struggle with making online appointments, but not much of one. If a state doesn't get 75 or 80% of the doses delivered to them in an arm within 7 days of delivery, well, they've failed and should be required to open up vaccinations to more people until they can get things moving properly or let someone else take it over. I have faith in the government's ability to execute a plan if they can demonstrate that if is efficient... Otherwise, get out of the way.

The stories about arduous hurdles being put in place in some states when there are leftover doses in bottles makes my blood boil. You can intuit why those rules are in place: some state public health officials felt any system which carved out exceptions would be abused. And you know what? They're probably right to some degree, but at the end of the day that just doesn't matter. If one or two pharmacists out of ten open an extra vial of vaccine at the end of the day to get their friends and neighbors vaccinated, well, so what... 10 people who needed to be vaccinated got vaccinated, if a little out of order. If even half of the other doses that would have been disposed get used up it's worth it in my book... 4-5 more people vaccinated and a bit of gravy on top.

Corruption is bad, don't get me wrong, but most people will do the right thing and we can sort out the rest later.

4 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

And that process could take up to a year. With it already having EUA, there's no rush to give it full approval

"Pfizer and BioNTech are planning to submit a Biologics License Application (BLA) during the first half of 2021 to secure full regulatory approval for BNT162b2," reads a statement emailed to Fox News. "Once filed, we expect the FDA to make a final decision in the second half of 2021."

19 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

It won't be until at least 2022 for full approval.  That's something they won't speed up, which is why they have the EUA path.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN28K2Z5

6 hours ago, Marlena said:

I'm interested to see what health policies / procedures they will do on a fully vaccinated ship...

I bet the full gamut of them initially... Interested to see how they (and we) respond to the inevitability of cases in board. Hopefully without hysteria.

1 hour ago, RickinSTL said:

I had one as a kid.. When I enlisted in the Army they tore it up and gave me everything all over again lol

Ha! Same... The nurse laughed when I tried to hand it to her. I'll never forget that.

1 hour ago, gabeb848 said:

Only Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk could afford that much champagne.

Maybe Royal can start selling at-home beverage packages to help me subsidize the cost a bit!

12 hours ago, PG Cruiser said:

I will just put my head in the sand for now and pull it out when cruising is back.

I'm going to buy a case of champagne and pop one every time a round of cancellations gets announced to try to trick my brain into thinking it's good news, at least temporarily.

10 minutes ago, twangster said:

I'm not suggesting the CDC should wait for zero in the community.  We are rapidly approaching the point where two lines on a graph will cross making it safe to resume cruising very soon.  As community cases continue to drop and vaccinations continue to climb their lines cross on a graph and it's safe enough to cruise.   

I think we agree, but Singapore has single digit cases of detected community transmission right now (maybe double digit, but you get my drift). It would be disingenuous to say "we have zero cases in Singapore because of these protocol" when it likely isn't causative. And like you said, we don't need it to be! I think the cruise lines obviously get this, but as members of the thinking public I think it's kind of our duty to pre-empt the idea that we're willing to wait for zero cases to claim victory... I see the notion that a single case (or even dozens of cases) will derail the return of cruising too often.

15 hours ago, twangster said:

Today that is correct but no one is saying cruising in the US should resume 9am tomorrow morning in the US.

One day soon the US will also have low enough rates like Singapore does today to allow cruising.  We can begin to prepare for that and that begins with the CDC issuing technical details for the cruise lines so they can begin to prepare, train and acquire any equipment required.  

Once the cruise lines know what they must do it will take months for them to get ready.  

Sure, but we can't write the same criteria Singapore can today and expect to succeed, nor should we. Zero covid is not possible on land, why should it be required on the sea?

I think a reasonable criteria would be just to make sure the ships aren't "accelerators". If they're not, and medical facilities on land and at sea can provide for the background level of disease, then get those "boats" *cringe* sailing.

6 hours ago, Jill said:

According to the article the FDA grants approval based on the outcomes of the trials. These trials won’t end for about 2 more years. 
 

Hopefully by then this dang virus will be well under control

I'm not proving you wrong to be snarky, just to correct the misconception:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idINKBN28K2Z5

It's easy to get confused about this... The efficacy trials have what you could call "no later than" dates associated with them to determine efficacy (which would only come into play if there were very few cases and the effect was hard to determine, ie the vaccine wasn't effective), and generally speaking companies will continue to collect safety data and anything else deemed relevant during that time even though it isn't necessary to grant full approval (though the FDA may require it, if that makes sense). Pfizer is planning to file for full approval this April.

An interesting question, but probably moot as the two vaccines being used in the US will probably have all of the data they need to file for full approval by April and May.

1 hour ago, JasonOasis said:

You bring up a really good point 35,000 passengers have sailed without a single positive case.  One part of that is also do to testing the day of embarkation, that is a key difference between RCCL in Singapore and what CCL proposed a few weeks ago where they would allow a person to board with a 5 day old negative test. 

This is encouraging news at least the CDC is talking with cruise lines so at least they realize they need to get the ball rolling.  

It's also that Singapore has aggressively contained the virus and has a fraction of the incidence rate we do.

My comment isn't about cruising in general so much as what states are doing in response to the CDC refusing to budge on guidelines. It is a quagmire for private businesses right now, even though there haven't been any big lawsuits yet.

14 minutes ago, princevaliantus said:

I agree and optimistic that there will be some type of sailing from U.S. port but I HIGHLY doubt it that the entire fleet will be sailing. The earliest I see anything happening is around Labor Day and that's hoping that the CDC will soon get their act together.

You're probably right, I think both of the outcomes are within the realm of reason. I think our perpetual election cycle also helps here... No one is going to want to run on ruining two Christmases in a row in 2022, and red states are starting to up the political pressure, having apparently been vindicated by falling case numbers (not commenting on whether that's right or wrong, just a note).

Florida is also racing to pass an immunity bill through its legislature that would essentially render the CDC guidelines legally toothless within the state. If they continue to be so out of touch, it's not impossible to imagine their influence waning even further.

23 hours ago, princevaliantus said:

Just being realistic. They can't get mock cruises going as we are all still waiting to hear back from the CDC (a.k.a. The Croods) and to have a whole entire fleet by year end sailing??? I have a better chance buying & owning an Oasis class ship!! 

I don't know, I think we're a week or so removed from the the technical guidance being released, and I truly expect it to be underwhelming relative to what RC's healthy sail panel is already recommending. The fact that the CDC asked for details about RC's tracelet reads to me like they're copying their homework so to speak. I think things will move relatively quickly from that point. 

Also, the CSO expires at the end of October... There will be mounting political pressure for things to go back to normal before the holidays, no matter what the experts are calling for (not saying that to discredit them, but the world doesn't exist in a test tube). It's possible we'll be a lot closer to normal, even though that seems so far off now.

18 hours ago, monctonguy said:

Nightmare waiting to happen.....

 

How would you ever prove that? Good luck if any official from the airport to the port to the cruise company to any of the destinations you want to travel with have any concerns about hand written vaccination record!

Oh, I know. All you would need is a piece of white cardstock and a duplex printer.

Our state has an easily accessible (by patients) registry, and there is a reporting requirement to the fed, though I don't know how much specific information they get versus just general demographic info.

3 hours ago, MikeK said:

We got a Covid-19 Vaccination Record Card with a CDC mark on it.  There is a place on the bottom of the card that a sticker with name of manufacturer, lot number and date of vaccination that the vaccination site will put on your card when you get vaccination.  Got both vaccines so obviously we have two stickers.

Ours were just written in.

To add an anecdote @JeffB, conversations I've had with friends in my age group (mid 30's) who are close to the end of the line for vaccines have started to trend toward this doom and gloom version of the future and are approaching a nihilism that I don't share but do understand... Namely if it is really as bad as Fauci et. al. say with regard to variants, then why bother continuing with caution until their group comes up for vaccination. One friend of mine is particularly hung up on something Fauci said which boils down to "once we've got 80% of the population vaccinated we can talk start going back to normal", which is a mathematical impossibility until mid-way through next year, and hinges on the idea that the vaccines we have are effective (which other experts seem more than willing to express doubt about). Some people are looking at the year they've sunk into this while listening to statements like that, and essentially saying "firetruck it", as my grandmother would say.