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bobroo

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Posts posted by bobroo


  1. 6 hours ago, princevaliantus said:

    Reminds me of when I was  a kid and I used to build tall structures with my Tinker Toy set and then thought I was Evel Knievel trying to jump over the structure with my Evel Knievel motorcycle!!!

    The Evel Knievel rev-up motorcycle.

    Let me tell you how big of an idiot I can be.

    You jumped Tinker Toys? I tried to jump my sister once. And even worse than the real life Evil Knievel at Cesar's Palace, was my toy Evil Knievel not making the jump over my sisters head down our bedroom hallway. Evil and his cycles spinning rear wheel landed in my sisters hair. Hair that had been trimmed, but never cut. Past the middle of her back kinda hair.

    There was screaming, there was yelling, there were tears......and there were scissors involved.

     

    45 years later and I'm sure I'm still not forgiven. (But she did allow me to pay for her trip down the Dragon's Breath zip line in Labadee last March...so maybe???)


  2. I am guessing that maritime GPS isn't always 1,000% accurate and that's how these type of accidents happen.

    I've asked a few times during bridge tours but always get brushed off answer, so I assume it must be Royals policy not to talk about accidents, even if they are recent and widely known or involve a competitor.


  3. I'm glad you brought up fuel cost @twangster. I'm assuming that there is contract pricing for most of Royals' diesel needs. As these types of contracts are often written, Royal would have to purchase a certain amount per week/month/quarter...whatever. This type of cost is reflected in the operating cost per month during shut down and is likely to be a big component. I'm guessing so big that once contracts expire, the monthly cost of operating a non-revenue generating fleet dramatically goes down.  <fingers crossed> Like maybe....it's cut in half??? I dunno...

    I would like to hear some analyst ask about fuel contracts during the next earnings report conference call. How much might they make up the monthly cost, contract potential duration, and are these fuel companies requiring delivery? It would also provide insight to the plausibility of passengers paying for a fuel surcharge during a future cruise.

     


  4. 12 minutes ago, twangster said:

    Airplanes, trains and buses don't have medical teams on them who are required to report illness on board.  Neither do grocery stores, churches, schools or sports stadiums.

    It's difficult to track the movements of someone who flew domestically but stood in a line to get a coffee with someone who just got off a plane from China.  Three minutes in that line in close proximity they now touch the credit card machine right after that passenger from China and now they have it without even knowing.  Next they board a plane for a short flight within their country and by the time the plane lands 6 more are infected.  

    On a cruise ship every visit to the medical center is logged and documented.  Upon arriving from being away a ship is asked about any health issues and they are required to report it.  A local ferry boat might see one infected person board and 20 minute later there are dozens of infected COVID-19 passengers but no one knows it so it goes unreported.   Some of those now go to church or school or a grocery store but no one knows so it goes unreported.

    The fact is that community spread was occurring as passengers boarded cruise ships around the world but nobody knew it at the time.  Guests unknowingly brought it on board a cruise ship but they caught COVID-19 on land and introduced it to the ship - the ship didn't make the virus out of thin air.  At that same moment community spread was occurring at hundreds of social gatherings from school to church to bars to neighborhood card games but there is no way to capture that and document it like there is on a cruise ship.

    The media can't report that which is undocumented yet we all now know was occurring.  It's unproven theory even though it's accepted within the scientific community.  Hard counts in documented reports from ship medical logs are facts that are easily picked up by the media.  "Seventeen guests with flu like symptoms" is a hard fact that a journalist can write an entire story around.  

    Banning churches and school would be a hard sell for any free society to accept so they quietly get included in stay at home policies.  Calling out and banning a luxury vacation industry is an easier sell that makes it look like governments are doing something despite the fact that it doesn't really do anything at this point and those same stay at home policies already cover the cruise industry.

     

    @twangster I wish I could hug you, this post is absolutely spot on!!!

     


  5. @JLMoran that’s great due diligence! Thanks for sharing.

    I agree, it’s all of Celebrity that is being pawned.

    “Wholly owned vessel-owning subsidiaries” ? I don’t think that’s Azamara, I think they mean Pullmantur. Example, Monarch of the Seas was retired and brought to Pullmantur. I’m guessing Royal still owns the boat but somehow leases it’s use. I don’t believe Royal has any say in the day to day Pullmantur management.

    Perhaps Royal expects to replace these recent loans with Federal money? Federal money that is cheaper and not a lot of strings attached? If so, I hope they get their brand-new best friends to repeal the Hatch Act because maybe a good way to get back online is to have short sailings that don’t go out of country.


  6. 1 hour ago, Baked Alaska said:

    I suspect that RCL and the bank can re-write the line of credit terms when nearing the two years and extended it out over mannnnnnny years. Banks love that. Agreed, glad I haven't bought stock. Prefer to invest in companies with no debt on their books. 

    Completely correct and your beginning to touch on a potential big problem in the future.....RCL has had excellent financials for all these bankers and investors to sign up for future endeavors. In the future when the financials are less than stellar, at what price are they going to write the loans?  Nobody in the history of the world has called a banker “compassionate”, “understanding of the circumstances”, or.....”forgiving.” What has occurred here over the past month and a half is going to have a big impact for rates of interest for years to come on many of the new ships or for what ever else they receive loans.

    Companies with no debt? There is only one that I know of; Berkshire Hathaway. I hope you have Class A shares!

     


  7. You and me JL are of the same thinking, limited in depth of knowledge as well.

    So I could be wrong but am I understanding the following correctly???:

     

    We are talking about Royal Caribbean and all it related brands (Azamara, TUI, Pulmanteur, Celebrity, etc.)

    Last year RCL made $5 B profit, After all expenses they were $5 B to the good.

    Two weeks ago, RCL agreed to a line of credit for $500M "for liquidity". Basically, the opportunity to take $500M if they need it.

    Today they take out a $2.2 B loan "for liquidity" to be repaid in a year, or extendable to be repaid over two years. This means they have received the funds and owe them back. Matt's article kind of says these funds are to keep the ball rolling on all the new ships and upgrades. (Incidentally, there are 17 new ships across all brands in the works). So......this $2.2B is a loan to make sure the already agreed to loans still work out???

     

    Big business is different than personal finance but if this were a conversation between me and my father he would say the following:

     

    Dad: Last year you had $5 billion in the bank?

    Me: Yep

    Dad: Then the bad thing happens...

    Me: Really bad thing....

    Dad: So I agree to make available to you $1/2B just to get you through.

    Me: Yes

    Dad: Then a week later you go take out a short term loan of $2.2B, so that your other future loans will still be available?

    Me: Yeppers

    Dad: So.....It's March 23rd; since January 1st you have taken in nearly $8B, of which you only have $3.6B today? In 82 days you have blown through $4.4B....AND......have no firm or reasonable expectations of when you will be making money again???? You have loans to cover other loans??? You are still hell bent on essentially buying things that you already own??? Is thrift a word in your vocabulary??? 

    Me: Yeah but... I want, I want, I want.....

    Dad: Follow me to the woodshed   <takes off belt>

     

     


  8. 1 hour ago, Hutcherl said:

    How did you do that?? You nailed my situation and thought process exactly.  

    I'm glad that makes some sense, I've used that approach many times myself. I was really reacting to the common threads of many other posters here.

    Online trading today is super cheap if not free. There are a lot of similarities between a brokerage account and an account on Amazon or e-Bay. Many big banks offer trading and it's quite convenient to go online to see how much is left in your checking account and alongside that is the status of your brokerage account. Maybe that's the first place you look?


  9. A couple personal thoughts:

    RCL is in a tough spot. Share price is free falling and they have huge overhead costs with little income. I can not imagine a current  shareholder that would not call it a distressed asset. 

    If you want to pick up 100 shares in expectation to receive future OBC for "cruises I'd be do'in anyway"  Ummmm..... distressed assets don't give away free things to customers. I would NOT buy RCL expecting that free $50/$100/$250 on my sea pass. Wrong answer.

    Dividends? Not anytime soon.

    Near term increase in stock price? I think the share price will go down further the next time they announce earnings. Like, Staples doesn't have enough red ink toner cartridges for me to print out the report. 

     

    But.......

     

    If you are a Royal fan and have never opened a brokerage account and bought some stock. I think this is a great opportunity to do so. Look at it this way: If you feel "Yeah, the financial world is very confusing. So confusing, I want to avoid the whole thing. I have no idea what the mumbo jumbo means." But.... you do have a relationship with Royal. An intimate knowledge of their day to day. Whether it's reading this blog or being onboard and seeing with your own eyes how well their brand is doing. 

    I would endorse someone in the above circumstance going to a Fidelity, Charles Schwab, TD Ameritrade, Chase Bank....whatever, there are a ton of brokerage outfits. Open and fund your account ( this takes a few days for your funds to become available for trading BTW) and buying some RLC. And then watch it. Learn from it. And perhaps most of all, become a better cruiser in the future because you have some skin in the game. You'll be prouder of whatever ship you are on. It won't be imposing to say "Hey kiddo, get off the railing!" 

    RCL needs your support. 

    You don't have to spend thousands of dollars. You can spend $100. Just know you are buying a very volatile asset and don't have expectations that this is going to pay off anytime soon.

    I think in years down the road, Royal will be back as strong as it was.

     


  10. Ummm.....I'm hoping it's real apparent that it's not the time to re-decorate something you already own. But rather, it is a golden opportunity to maintain those assets.

    It should be expected that every ship for the next 30 days is completely repainted, re-carpeted, and re-gasketed.

     

    New water slides and restaurants? Wrong answer.


  11. I have been concerned for months about the continual RCL spending and bragging they use as advertisement:

    $250M for Coco Cay

    $300M for a new corporate headquarters

    $250M to make a new terminal in Miami and make the dock 100 feet longer

    $165M to revitalize Allure

    $116M to amplify Freedom

    $300M for an existing hotel and dock in Freeport

    and on and on and on........

     

    I mentioned this today on the Insiders FB group and it's worth stating here;  I think Royal is in serious trouble because this elephant does not dance to slow music. 

    I think they will dock all the ships until at least September. It will be cheaper to cease operation than try to combat the hostile environment.

     

    I think this could very well happen in the next 30 days.

     

     

     


  12. 2 hours ago, Zacharius said:

    I think we may have to disagree about rural. I've been to Cap-Haitien and it's really about 200,000 to 250,000 people, and is literally only 10 kilometers of winding roads from the gate to Labadee. Yes, you aren't getting anyone in Labadee who isn't a worker, and it may seem like you're in the middle of nowhere when you come in on a ship, can't leave, and head out on a ship without seeing anything else, but I personally wouldn't call Labadee "in the middle of nowhere". 

    This is absolutely true. I know the use of Google Maps is pretty much an unknown skill for Royal Caribbean passengers, but give it a Goog and find out for yourself.

     

    Also absolutely true is that you as a passenger are absolutely forbidden to leave the Labadee compound unless you are on a Royal excursion or going on the zip line. Which is also weird, because there are passengers who would like to visit family in the area who are declined leaving. There is also the occasional freak like myself who would like to venture outside the gate and they are quite serious about the “you can not leave” while hold a large semi automatic weapon.


  13. 2 hours ago, Bee-rad said:

    What company will rent a jeep for $50??

    Ernestos Tortilla Factory (a restaurant just north of the cruise terminal) and it’s neighbor Gateway Car Rental both will rent you a Jeep for about $50 for the day. Probably manual transmissions only.

    Again, unfortunately renting a dune buggy is no where to be found.


  14. 1 hour ago, DDaley said:

    I just looked into this and you can, actually! From HTL Rentals. $55 for the day. I was toying with getting one but the savings are minimal over the tour once you add Punta Sur admission and wouldn't include a guide or lunch or free tequila! So ended up with the tour after all. 

     

    Good for you! I think you’ve had a good lesson in vacation planning. 

    My last time in Coz I rented 5 vehicles from HTL for close to $300. We did essentially what I said above. <cue Banana Splits theme>


  15. Bobroo's Cozumel Private Destination Plan:

    (You'll need American dollars, bug spray, a wristwatch, and a bathing suit.)

    Rent 2 mopeds for about $50 for the day. Or a car or Jeep for about the same price (unfortunately you can not rent a dune buggy). If you arrange it ahead of time they will meet you just outside the port.

    Take the C-1 around the island. A good 1st stop is San Gervasio. Many will tell you the ruins are not that impressive; in fact they are not. They would be much better with hieroglyphs. Having your own wheels, you can bail at anytime. Give your left over bug spray to someone just walking in.

    Next stop Bee sanctuary. I have not gone but the apiarists I was with on my last visit called it a dud. Worth doing some research.

    Continue on the C-1. There are plenty of bars on the beach that serve food. Also along the route, just pull over someplace and get in the water! There is something very fun about spontaneously going to the beach to wave hop. No towels, no beach bags, no frisbees---and no cost.. Just do it. 

    Punta Sur and the Lighthouse is kinda your halfway point. This area is where you need the wristwatch. This area has no cellular service and most of the bars don't have electricity. Relying on your phone for it's maps program or to use it as a watch might not work out. If you have to postpone a visit to this stop till the next visit to Coz, it's because of all the right reasons!!!

    There are bars along the final leg for "just one more margarita", but no where near the view as the east coast so you'll kinda be slum'in it.

    There is a gas station just before you get to the port to fill up and then finally return your vehicle(s).

     

    Save your manatee experience as part of a pre/post cruise fun thing to do when you are in Florida. Wildlife experiences are always better when the animals are not captive.

     

    You can easily do the above for $200 a person. I'm guessing a taxi will want $100 an hour but you might talk him down to $80 an hour (?). I'm guessing Royal's Private Destination will cost you $1,000- $1,200 a person. 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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