VACruiser

I really liked Key West on a stop I had on a Carnival ship. But, if you happen to be there during one of their interesting festivals in the fall you will be in for an eyeful of things you wish you’ve never seen. ?

I wonder what the profit margin is for a full ship versus a well socially-distanced ship say around 50% capacity? A company has to make money to operate and I’m quite sure operating a Oasis class ship is an extremely expensive venture. They may start like this, just to get going, but as time goes on, money must be generated heavily to pay back all these loans cruise companies have been borrowing to stay operating. I know this is a cruise blog, and people on it have a high level of tolerance for cruising under extreme conditions just to get going, but I have to think it’s still a minority portion of the ship. To get back to making money they need new people to try cruising and getting the ships back to a high profit margin. Either more people cruise or they raise the prices for cruising. Something has to change in order for the company to become profitable again and that’s going to be tough with social distancing which probably equates to lower people numbers on ships. We shall see but I do love the business aspect of how this is going to work.

I think all this refund/FCC shenanigans is Royal winning a battle but overall may just lose the war. I’m still waiting on a cruise refund and some FCC. It’s on my count, day 45, and it’s been all quiet on the Russian front. I’m frustrated with what they are doing but I do understand it. They are hemorrhaging money with no revenue incoming so they are trying to hold unto the money for as long as they can as that is their near term target; but, it angers me as a consumer that they are doing this and it makes me question my need to go cruising in the future. How many people are like me that are thinking the same thing. I spend 7+ thousand on cruises all together so add lots of my mind-set up and they we lose loyal cruisers who will find other ways to spend their money. There are lots of resorts and vacation places vying for that money. I used to look forward to emails from Royal announcing new sales but now I just delete them knowing that all they want is more money to hold unto and not return in a reasonable fashion if it gets cancelled. They have hurt their loyal base. It’s to bad they have chosen this route - understandable, but not prudent.

push me ^^^^^ and all will change!!!!

I’m still waiting on a refund for a cancelled cruise and I’m in the 40+ days mark. But, 90 days is just criminal in my mind. How would it be if I took a cruise and paid RCI 90 days after the cruise - I don’t think that would work but it sure seems to work in the opposite direction. No where else would this be allowed in commerce. I can add all kinds of analogies but I’ll leave it with - criminal! I have a cruise scheduled for November 2021 but I’m hanging by a thread here and extremely disappointed with RCI on this issue. I’m about to scrap it all and just start doing land based vacations...I’m still hanging in there but some days it is just an irritant.

I imagine their driving factor in any of these decisions is about preserving as much money as possible. The thing that will change that is the backlash their decisions get; the blowback factor. And, this got one so they modified their rules to accommodate these changes. In the end of the day they still need to preserve the company as well as some thread of customer satisfaction. In normal times that is hard, but under these circumstances, almost impossible. Their customer service was spotty to begin with and this situation it has shown how poor it truly is. I’m still waiting for my money back on a cancelled cruise - I think I’m in the 40 day mark now - that is a bad company practice and it leaves a terrible taste in my mouth and there are thousands of people just like me.

Reading these items makes me sad. I cancelled a cruise and I’m now at day 40 for a refund - my calculation and I’m sure not theirs. They did refund the excursions and I think insurance money within 3 weeks but the bulk of the money about $2.5k is sitting in crazy RCI limbo world. What this has done to me is taken the shine off a company I once used to give money to readily for a cruise vacation. Now I can’t trust them with any money and I am questioning if I should ever go cruising again. I’m very new to cruising and I liked it the four times I have travelled but this has really dampened my cruising mindset. It’s time to start looking elsewhere for my vacations. And, I’m sure I’m not the only one with this mindset. RCI may well weather this storm but loyalty has taken a hit on cruisers and they will lose valued customers.

I’ve already cancelled a cruise for later this year because I wanted to see what happens. My caution is waiting to see which ports are accepting travelers. I cruise for destinations so if my itinerary changes that would be a deal breaker for me. Wearing a mask on vacation also does not make me want to go cruising; just doesn’t seem like a vacation to me and makes it too surreal. I don’t have a cruise for 18 months so I’m in the wait and see mode. I hope it comes back but...who knows.

I can sympathize with the crew a little bit. It’s not the situation per se that is frustrating, it’s the not knowing and where it ends. I’ve been out of work since March 16th and at first it was ok, but it’s really dragging on now and irritating as we wait for word when we can go back to work. You know it’s coming , but it’s the not knowing that is bothersome and irritating. And, add on that being stuck on a ship and not everyone is going to be happy about that. To the crew it’s a job and not all fun and games like travelers that sign up for a week of travel. I’m sure if you are stuck on a ship as other travelers with COVID cases and quarantined for weeks on end you might feel differently about your captivity. I know I would!

My concern is not if it goes, but what itinerary will it be? I know a lot of the Caribbean islands are not open for tourism so maybe Coco Caye and maybe Labadee. Some people are happy to just be on the ship but I’m not that person. I don’t like sea days and I like to go to places and do things on land. I would not be happy if I didn’t get to go on the itinerary I signed up for but that’s just me.

As you’re losing sleep (oh awesome sleep) I would probably Future Cruise Credit it and look for something down the line. Cruising out of NJ in August could be difficult all by its self. Between New Jersey and New York they are the epicenter for the US in regards to COVID numbers as they have the highest numbers in the US. The chances of the cruise getting cancelled is probably high, but if waiting for more information is causing you mental anguish, it’s not worth the agony. I am getting ready to cancel my cruise in December 20. Not that I think it won’t go but because of the lack of unknowns involved and I don’t want to worry about itinerary changes...I worry a lot so I don’t want to have to care about it so I’ll move it to the next year.

I know cruising will come back this year what I’m worried about is what countries will allow tourists? I can see lots of changed itineraries. If you pick cruises based on islands you want to visit you may be disappointed.

”The company expects to use the net proceeds from the offering of the Notes to repay its $2.35 billion 364-day senior secured term loan agreement with Morgan Stanley“ When you have to borrow money to pay off previous debts that’s not a good thing. I’m not sure what it means exactly but it’s got to do with burn rates they are using to stay a going forward concern.

It has/is interesting to see how a challenged industry is working their financials in a zero income environment. The banks are doing everything they can to keep it a float (intended pun). The CFO’s are really making their salaries now. No one wants to see a huge money making industry go down the tubes but the travel industry is in for lot of problems in the coming years. Older and younger Americans may not frequent the industry as much as in the past so as older cruisers pass away; younger cruises may not want to try the “floating pertri dish” as has been stated over and over by the press. The cruise industry is going to have to pay a lot of money for advertising going forward as it has to fix the curse that has been thrust upon them with bad press. I believe that the future innovation in the travel/cruise industry will be hindered going forward so as to shore up their financials. This COVID situation will be imprinted on the minds of CFO’s for years to come just as much as it was for people in the 1930’s. We will remember it for years as 2020 is a year to remember for the rest of our lives.

I’m with you there - I worked my way up from a Junior Suite on a cruise, that I had to cancel due to the flu, and moved the cruise to December, then moved to a Grand Suite, and under the recent sale, moved to a Crown Loft Suite for not too much additional money. Crazy but that’s what occurred.

My wonder isn’t that cruising will start sometime this summer or early fall, it’s more the thinking of which countries will let you in for travel purposes and will employers require a 14 day quarantine upon your return. I think there is going to be some major changes to itineraries as this starts back up depending on which countries will accept guests. I think Coco Caye is going to get a lot of guests and visits but it can only handle so many ships per day. Think of the mainstays of ports visited - Western Cruises - Cozumel, Mexico, Falmouth Jamaica, Labadee Haiti, and Easterns of St. Thomas, St. Martin, St. Kitts...All different countries with their own Government to work with. They need the travel money so it will be interesting to see the balance between their people and travel money.

I totally agree with this. I was able to upgrade to an L1 CLS from a Grand Suite on Harmony of the Seas for my December cruise for about 1k. This is my second RCI Cruise so I’m going from a Balcony to the CLS 17th floor. I’m ruined!

I actually got a refund on a drink package that I canceled a month ago. I wish I could have just told them to put against my cruise balance but I guess it doesn’t work that way. Oh well, once I got it I just put on the cruise balance before the credit was even cold.

@WAAAYTOOO You don’t know how bad it’s become...for instance, this year’s Dec 20 cruise is in a Grand Suite on Harmony and my Nov 21 cruise is the worst yet - a Crown Loft Suite on Oasis, 17th floor baby!!! This place is bad for starting you down that road!

@Kcusack89I was on the IOS last year in a hump balcony room and I met my neighbor who had a Junior Suite next to mine...I was in 9340 and they were in JS 9338. They were kind enough to allow us into their room to take a look at the differences and it’s a much larger room and bathroom. The balcony room can feel squished, especially in the bathroom area and shower, but the JS is much larger and more like a living room feeling. No jumping around the bed as there is plenty room to walk around in the room. The bathroom is also much larger. The size of a JS is about a balcony and a half room. If the cost is close I would definitely take a Junior Suite over a Balcony hands down. You get double the points and priority embarkation. And, never forget the walk-in closet.

I have a cruise out of Miami on December 6th on Harmony of the Seas and I’m 75% sure it will happen. Not sure of much else, or where it ultimately will go, but as of now it’s Coco Cay, St. Thomas and St. Kitts. Two of the three RCI can’t control but maybe we will go to Coco Cay for three visits ?.

They’ll survive. It will just slow down innovation for the future. Revenue will be down for a couple of years as they pay off debt. New ships won’t come out as quickly or get cancelled and new play areas in the Bahamas will be put off. Cruises work off selling tickets to people with disposable income, and we had lots of it, but now the number of people with that level of income will drop for awhile as we get back to work. On the good side, if you have the money, there should be some great sales for 2021 and 2022 as all the future cruise credits make their way through the system and what’s left is lots of rooms chasing few people that have money. I’m thinking that new cruisers will not come to cruise unless the prices are really tempting - you know the floating petri dish viewpoint that everyone talks about. Most of my non-cruising friends have said those words to me in the past month - like why would you ever go back to that floating Petri dish? That’s what cruise lines are up against going forward. They had some bad publicity and it’s going to be hard to get past that sentiment in the near-term.

Depends on how you look at revenue. RCI has been getting loans to sustain itself, so as potential buyer of stock, you have to look at how much debt they are taking on versus incoming revenue. Will they be able to pay the debt back with interest, pay off bond holders, and Saudi Sheiks, to be able to remain solvent. RCI was making 5 Billion a year before the pandemic occurred which brought us such things as Coca Cay, new ships, and future research and development. How long will it take to get back to that - that is the question? When a stock drops 80% of its value it’s normally for a reason. You have to figure out how bold you and try to capture a falling knife. They always say it is good to buy when the crowd is running in fear and sale when all are extremely happy. Hard to do as we are fear based people. It’s either terror or being over joyed . Look at their earning statements going forward and really no one knows what’s going to happen next in revenue. I wouldn’t want to the CFO trying to forward forecast revenue.

Honestly that’s when I checked in. @JLMoran is speaking in-depth financial discussions and he makes a lot of sense. I am still monitoring but will stay on the sidelines and wait it out or look for stabilization.

The old adage goes - don’t try and catch a falling knife because it will cut you. Wait until it stabilizes along support levels which it blew through all the support levels so there really isn’t any left. It’s in free fall with daily trading at five - six times its normal volume. That’s never a good sign on the falling side. Lots of sellers and few buyers around. Be careful at the moment with money that you need. If it’s disposable income and you want to try, than by all means go for it. We are not done with this situation and April 10th can come and go quickly without resumption of cruises. Be wary if you are a new investor. I thought $30 was going to be a support level but it went right past and never stopped on it’s decline.