DD474

Why is the Points Guy wrong about calling the number one thing to watch to signal a restart of cruising is new case numbers. Well. he's right in one sense since too many simply don't understand the science and the facts. But Public Health Officials deciding on what metrics should guide easing of mitigation measures should look at R(0) or the number of people one infected person then infects others. When that number is <1.0, the virus is receding, circulating and increasing when it's > 1.0. This is a graphic depiction of R(0) by state followed by a listing of each state's R(0). If I counted correctly, 3 states have increasing numbers of cases (R-0 >1.0) https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-states/
If you want to dig into this and see national data current through today go here: https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-states/
A couple of take-aways from these charts: R(0) at the second link shows a real and forecast upward trend - this is where Fauci and Walenski are getting information to suggest that new cases may not be declining as fast as 2 weeks ago or are rising. There are multiple caveats to the data. If the testing circumstances change (e.g., less aggressive testing, more aggressive testing) it affects the reliability of the data sets rendering forecasts unreliable. So, I take with a grain of salt Fauci's and Walenski's warnings on Friday and Biden's pessimism on Saturday evening.
That is because, in the US, as vaccines become available, public health resources are being diverted from testing sites and moved to vaccinations sites - less testing is happening. As well, fewer people are requesting to be tested. I'm more inclined to look at data 7-14d ago as being more reliable than the last 7d. IOW, the trend in virus circulation is downward and will stay that way as long as getting vaccines into peoples arms is front and center.   I'd add that augmenting the R(0) metric with hospitalizations and deaths - both declining in absolute terms and trending downward in rate terms - supports the take that the virus is receding not that it is accelerating or will accelerate. 

I don't see the point about complaining that public areas are being disinfected more often.  There are certainly other diseases and problems that could be mitigated by excellent sanitation (hello, Norovirus).  

I absolutely agree with you.  I think I get just as much pleasure out of planning....and then the cruise comes and it goes by SOOOO fast.

We recently booked the Voyager TA from Copenhagen to Boston (Iceland, Greenland). Yesterday we booked Jewel R/T from Amsterdam going to England, Scotland and Ireland. We will spend 4 days in Northern Europe getting from Amsterdam to Copenhagen and turn those into disjointed S2S.  We will stay on for the first Voyager Canada/NE in Boston.  

Royal did a survey among crew at home 2 weeks ago and found ~4,000 already have been vaccinated.  Voyager class normally has ~1,200 crew so depending on the breakdown of who is vaccinated they could in theory go a long way towards staffing two Voyager class ships.  That 4k number has probably already grown a bit and will continue to grow week by week.  Is every role on board covered?  Probably not.  But then again they aren't sailing tomorrow so it's not hard to envision them putting a plan together. 
Maybe they ask some management or senior lead positions to fulfil the role of a bartender temporarily for example, a job maybe they had 8 years ago.  Michael Byley was a purser once.  They probably won't put him back onboard but there are others like him that could dust off their old crew uniforms and get back on a ship in the name of returning to service until they can vaccinate every role on board.
Royal has a long history of their employees going beyond the call of duty, volunteering on land after disasters, helping the community in times of need, etc.  It's not hard to imagine long time employees eager to do whatever is needed to get a ship sailing if they are vaccinated. 
At some point a company from Liberia may be able to buy the vaccine on the open market.  They may already have their order submitted waiting for fulfillment.  Absent of the US invoking the defence production act on US based vaccine facilities I imagine there are private companies that can acquire vaccine as that is a transaction between private parties.  Royal getting their hands on a thousand doses within a month isn't a stretch to conceive.  They aren't crewing the entire fleet in 30 days.  They may only need a few hundred doses to fill the roles that aren't already possible with crew already vaccinated to get two ships sailing.

Johnson and johnson vaccine was just authorized for use just about an hour ago. We are headed in the right direction. Astrazenca is next I hope. We could be flooded with vaccines soon. 

RCL will require vaccines for all employees.  The captains are almost always from Europe so they have access to the vaccine.  For the rest of the staff, RCL may have to purchase their own supply for the balance of the employees, if there is any real chance of cruising any time in the near future. For example the Philippines is supposed to receive there FIRST shipment of vaccine on Monday 3/1.  Saga cruises (50y/o +) will requires everyone to be vaccinated 14-days prior to sailing, although most of the vaccine companies seem to represent that the vaccines are fully effective 28 days after last dose.  The way I look at it, if my next ship is not staffed 14-28 days prior to embarkation - its probably going to be canceled. Many experienced staff may not come back which may delay a full restart. 

We have a November cruise booked for Oasis -  fingers crossed the world is healthy by then.
 

Yes... Same Here... I enlisted back in the 70s..?  Seemed like a good idea at the time. 

Not sure what I am missing here, but my Cruise Planner looks the same as always.  No new format....

My bookings are still in the old format but I can open two tabs - one showing the current cruise planner and the other showing my order history - and then toggle between the two.
Not ideal I know but hopefully the same will be possible with the new one to show you what you need to see.

From reading the "other" thread, the biggest thing coming out of this change is that fact that you will no longer be able to price compare items that you have purchased in the Cruise Planner.  It will just show that you have already purchased this item and there will be no current price available.  According to "authorities" on the other site, even CSR will not be able to look up current prices for you as they [apparently] can only see the same thing that you can see.  This totally sucks !

OMG... You're totally ready for a cruise ship. ?  
The best part will be going through security.  ?
No need to take your temp. 

Just in case anyone thought I was kidding ?

This board has gone in so many directions.?

I agree but didnt mention it due to the fact any time requiring vaccines, wearing masks or social distancing are mentioned it starts the old " im not getting a vaccine or wearing a mask" debate or my other favourite " i may as well stay at home if i have to do that" 
As i said previously what will be will be and we either follow the rules and get on with things best we can or we stay at home 

My wife and I are booked on Allure of the seas this December.  Still looks good. 

My wife and I are booked on Allure of the seas this December.  Still looks good. 

I've been so optimistic for so long....we're scheduled for 8/1 on Allure and I may just literally die if it gets cancelled.
One thing that I'm concerned about is whether we will be able to go into port on our own.  I'm doubtful, but hoping 
that at least in the closed-off area we'll be able to.

Wow, that’s awesome! 
I’m not optimistic about my August Alaskan cruise but very optimistic about the two December cruises.
 

Definitely.  Back up to 20+ cruises booked. 

I know we have all been at points "optimistic" about cruises restarting. I don't think any of us thought it would last this long but I feel things are finally starting to turn. Its gonna be a bit longer but I feel we are moving, slowly moving in the right direction and cruises will start. I'd say some time in the summer, July/August. Of course that doesn't mean all our cruises will sail off. I'm pretty sure my August Oasis cruise is still in trouble even with my optimism. Anyone else getting a hint, just hint of optimism about cruises finally?

Correct..  You can't fly into the USA without a negative test, yet you can walk across the boarder into the USA by the thousands with no social distancing, mask and no covid test.  So much inconsistency.  ?

Correct..  You can't fly into the USA without a negative test, yet you can walk across the boarder into the USA by the thousands with no social distancing, mask and no covid test.  So much inconsistency.  ?

Now that I think about it. ?
Wearing A Mask on Allure this December would be the coolest way to cruise. ?
(unless I'm misunderstand what the CDC is recommending ) ?