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Purely a guess.  I will go with 1 July 2020

Personally, I do not believe a single word of anything coming out of China.  I think the chances that they have -0- new cases is -0-.  They've just quit testing.

Or maybe Royal will do a good thing like DCL and push back final payment dates by 30 days. 😉

13 hours ago, Crazycruiser50 said:

We just cruised with him the first week of March and are supposed to cruise again on that ship on May 2nd, so trust me I am not happy.  Luckily we have an Oct and Nov cruise scheduled too, so hopefully we can roll a FCC over to one of those.  

Does your friend think they will have Med cruises if cruising doesn't start until August?

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I'm more optimistic:  Based on China's cases, the virus started about mid January and on about Feb. 4th the upward curve started to head downward. 

So maybe from about  a month from when it started in USA, it will start declining. My prediction is May 1st for Royal Caribbean to start sailing. But April 11th would be wonderful!

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I'm just hoping that if they do extend their resumption of cruises, they'll push out FCCs or refunds quickly. I'm really trying hard not to cancel my original June sailing and go full-on with my July sailing (Canada/New England), but I worry if I wait too much longer, I won't get the FCC quickly enough, and I'll put a bit of extra financial strain on myself. 😕

I'm not very good at this whole patience thing. 😛

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2 hours ago, Chadster said:

I'm just hoping that if they do extend their resumption of cruises, they'll push out FCCs or refunds quickly. I'm really trying hard not to cancel my original June sailing and go full-on with my July sailing (Canada/New England), but I worry if I wait too much longer, I won't get the FCC quickly enough, and I'll put a bit of extra financial strain on myself. 😕

I'm not very good at this whole patience thing. 😛

Or maybe Royal will do a good thing like DCL and push back final payment dates by 30 days. 😉

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I have no idea when it will resume, but I fall around the Labor Day camp. While we currently have a May 2020 cruise booked, I’m 80% sure that will be cancelled so we booked 2 diff refundable options to lock in prices before FCCs drive up prices more. We have Aug 30th and Nov 29th booked. Nov was my idea and August my parents. Holding both to see who (if anyone) is right. 

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September or later, while definitely possible, would be particularly tough for the cruise industry -- not only would they miss out on the summer travel boom, but...the entirety of the Alaska cruise season would be gone except for a cruise or two. That would be a huge blow. 😕

Here's hoping it doesn't come to this!

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3 hours ago, spiralqueen said:

I have no idea when it will resume, but I fall around the Labor Day camp. While we currently have a May 2020 cruise booked, I’m 80% sure that will be cancelled so we booked 2 diff refundable options to lock in prices before FCCs drive up prices more. We have Aug 30th and Nov 29th booked. Nov was my idea and August my parents. Holding both to see who (if anyone) is right. 

We're hoping our 5/31/20 sailing doesn't get cancelled, but we too plan on booking one in late SEPT or OCT with a refundable deposit just in case!

We just have to think about how the potential FCC (if we wait for Royal to cancel to get the 125%) and final payment due date for the newly booked cruise will work!

I believe it's currently 30 days from cancellation until we have access to the FCC. Hmmmm.... it may be a tight timeline for us if Royal waits until the last minute to cancel!

The other thing that stinks is that we will likely loose out on the better CP sales and dining time slots, etc., the longer we wait to book! 😞

71 days... hopefully! :27_sunglasses:

 

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I heard that RC is starting to send crew home until the end of July. Chris Wong’s vlog on YouTube and someone in a Symphony group on Facebook knows 2 crew members on Oasis that also have said this. 

I just put a deposit down on an October Symphony in the event my May 2 Symphony gets cancelled which I’m expecting it to be at this point. 

Anyone else hear this? 

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So Illinois is a stay at home state as of 5pm on Saturday March 21st.  On March 19th we only had 230 cases and 1 death. Today we have 770 and 6 deaths. We had been asked to limit gatherings to 10 or less on March 14th. Sure those who could started working from home and events were cancelled. But lots of people hung out at the malls, shopping centers, grocery stores and fast food places that were deem essential. There are lines for stores out to the parking lot, nobody is keeping their distance. I don't know why its so hard to head instructions.

I was convinced that we would be back to our new normal by late May. I am sorry but we probably won't be cruising until late summer or maybe even Labor day.

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Here in Maryland, we've had 41 cases announced since yesterday; we're up to 190 as I type this. Two deaths. My school extended our spring break an extra week, and we're starting online coursework this week; they've officially ruled out any return to on-campus learning for the spring semester. Thankfully, I've only got one class to deal with...most of my other work consists of writing.

Still no word on when they'll reopen the Cruise Maryland terminal, though I don't sail out of Baltimore until December; my upcoming cruise is from Cape Liberty in either June or July.

Trying to stay upbeat (I really feel uncomfortable saying "positive"!) about my chances, but I'm also a realist. If there's ANY risk to people still present when cruise time comes, I'll give up sailing for the good of the public health...though I really hope it doesn't come to that.

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My issue is the lack of awareness. My 79 y/o grandmother and her friends went out to vote this past Tues. Same for venturing out to stores even though they all watch the news, several times a day, and had been warned. My 36-44 year old friends have been hanging out at Starbucks, Chipotle, home depot and anything that is open. Crowds and crowds of people have more than doubled our cases...known cases...in a mere two days. We could have flatten the curve and be cruising by May imho....but things are getting worse. I am frustrated because very few people are taking this seriously, yet are the same ones who seem to be the biggest complainers.

Dog Kitten GIF

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10 hours ago, Ampurp85 said:

We could have flatten the curve and be cruising by May imho....but things are getting worse.

 

Flattening the curve is the opposite of what you are describing, the intent of flattening the curve is to lessen the peak number of cases and deaths to lower the load on the medical community ... the trade-off is that the entire "process" last much longer.

Either way things were going to and are going to get worse, its just a matter of a high peak or a long arc.

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So here is what I think is going to happen. Time frame obviously unknown.

The new cases and active cases of COVID-19 must get to ZERO (0) before things restart. Right now we are still in the upward arc of new cases (the US had 1254 new cases from 7:43pm to 7:43am overnight per JHU). When the new cases start to drop that should be the top of the curve and an equal time period down for the cases to get to ZERO (0). However, the down time will probably be less due to newly approved medical reasons. 

So assuming (a bad thing to do) a January 2020 start and a July 2020 peak then Feb. 2021 is not out of the question, but more realistic time would be November 2020. Then another month or so for repositioning, restocking, recalling crew and disinfecting (again) the ships.

That said my best guess is around the Spring of 2021.

 

 

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My guess: By mid April, cases of the Mexican Beer Virus will be trending down dramatically, both in the US and worldwide.  

How long after that until the bureaucrats and authorities decide it is safe to go outside? I don't know.  However, Royal will start sailing as soon as they can afterward.

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With a vaccine more than a year away I am thinking that cruising of the past is at least 2 years away.  However once an antidote is developed and distributed may be limited cruises would start.  I would think startup will be made up of short (5 days or less) duration cruises. I also would think that Oasis class size ships will be used for sea day and private island excursions.  Most “itinerary” destinations will be hesitant for these ships to dock in their ports until a proven vaccine/cure for the virus is found.    

With all of the unknowns – when will drugs be developed to prevent/cure the virus, how fast does the virus mutate, is this going to be a seasonal event  - all bets are off until more answers are found.

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If this lasts 18 months all of these cruise lines will be completely out of business. They can't survive that long. If this late 18 months to 2 years we are gonna wish we were dead because there will be absolutely nothing left to the economy with about 80% unemployment. This will end much earlier or be under control much earlier than. If only the adults had been charge from the beginning this would look much different than it does now. 

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Without a crystal ball, we can’t know definitively how long this will last. I definitely believe the summer sailings are in serious jeopardy of being cancelled.

When they do start up again, hopefully sooner than later, I’m sure there will be fewer sailings and/or very limited itineraries until these closed ports start to open up again. Hey, I’m game for only sea days, Labadee and Coco Cay for now!

 

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@jticarruthers Exactly what I meant, notice I said we could have.......If people had headed the warning we could get down to fewer cases in 2 to 3 months. But people aren't doing what is being asked to slow the virus. Which will lead to a desperation to get things back to normal and will cause more problems in the long run. We are very much still in the dark, cold and flu season starts back again in late October. This virus appeared in November so who is to say it won't repeat itself? That could mean no cruising or traveling for 18 months+, I don't want that at all.

Best case we end up with only "local" itineraries for a while. I don't mind cruising to only Cococay or the Bahamas but that can get old real fast.

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