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steverk

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Posts posted by steverk

  1. 51 minutes ago, JasonOasis said:

    Since this thread is already about project Discovery I have some questions.

    Virgin Voyages which has been carving out its own path in the cruise industry just announced that its 4th ship Brilliant Lady will be delivered in September 2025.   They also revealed they made purposeful and intentional changes to Brilliant Lady's design so the ship will be able to sail through the Panama Canal and also the ship will enter the already crowed Alaska market. 

    I know Virgin only has 4 ships but what kind of pressure if any pressure at all does Virgins entrance into the Panama Canal market put on Royal to get Project Discovery right so that class of ship can fit through the Panama Canal?  Or is the Panama Canal market not that important of a market to Royal?

    Also for a few weeks in 2026 Virgin will offer sailing out of Los Angeles but I think Royal is already ready or anticipated this move as Quantum OTS arrives in Los Angeles in late 2025.

    https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/virgin-voyages-news

    Since nobody here has access to Royal's internal decision process,  all we can do is guess how much they worry about Virgin Voyages. 

    With that in mind, my thoughts are Royal doesn't really pursue the Panama Canal market.  They reposition through the canal,  but that's not the same thing.  What other lines do is really irrelevant.

    Therefore,  Royal will have to balance the economy of scale that can be achieved by  going larger than new Panamax vs. The operational flexibility they get by being new Panamax class.

  2. 3 hours ago, HeWhoWaits said:

    Throw us the five D+ vouchers and there's absolutely no need to purchase the upgrade to the premium package (we would just use the vouchers for anything not covered by the base package). If you're going to purchase them, the wi-fi and drink package made the Celebrity option LESS expensive.

    I hope you realize that you don't get the drink vouchers while sailing on Celebrity.

  3. 16 minutes ago, dr martini said:

    Vision class is 70-80k gross tons, Radiance class is 90k and fits those places, voyager 140k.  obviously this is all speculation and would depend on how wide/tall they settle on going.  will also need shore power capability and fuel cell or natural gas burning to meet strict emissions rules, still at such an early stage.  like, drawing on a napkin in the bar stage.   

    Project Eagle that led to the voyager class started in 1995 and Voyager entered service in 99.  in that project the ship famously (infamously?) grew 40% from their first projected size.  I think the same inevitable growth happens here, there's just no way they go as small as I've seen some people here talking after all the success the mega ships are bringing them.  this is a business decision.  Icon will be icon, this is a replacement for the tonnage they will lose as vision/radiance/voyager all get retired in the next 15-20 years, think of discovery as a newer, more efficient hybrid of those classes that royal can probably also build a discovery plus of as they evolve and/or share the frame with celebrity.  royal is not an expedition line, they THE mass market big ship, big fun big family line.  

    sure vision class still exists and is paid for, but how much EBITDA are they really kicking off vs the newer half of the fleet?  what's the repair/maintenance cost as a % of total net profit that they return and how does that compare with the newer ships?  these are the considerations Royal is weighing much more than "do we still need a ship that fits in new orleans or tampa or every other place?"  We don't have to listen to what they say, look at what they're already doing.  Royal wants to run more, bigger ships out of big port facilities that they control for a better, more efficient experience for the passengers and for suppliers and staffing.  Royal wants to then send those passengers to island/port experiences that they control and can also profit from and on and on.

    2,500 passengers with very limited opportunity for upcharge items vs 6-7k passengers on newer classes spending alllll of the extra money on shopping/dining/play.  it's going to become a very simple equation and it's not going to be a 'small' ship in any sense, it's going to need space for the bells and whistles and space for the people needed to pay for those amenities.  

    I agree with most of what you say. Bigger ships are Royal's focus and probably their future. 

    However, there is one big reason why the size mentioned today is likely in the cards. That is the Panama Canal.

    Royal has been repositioning the radiance class ships through the canal as the Alaska season begins and ends. If they want to continue to do that, then there's a very strict size limit.  If they decide that isn't really important then discovery either gets cancelled or grows to 300,000 tons.

  4. 1 minute ago, baltodave said:

    Would that make it small enough for Tampa, Baltimore, Panama Canal and some European Ports (e.g. Montenegro)?

    Assuming they're careful with the dimensions,  it should be able to go through the new panama canal locks.

    I doubt Tampa will be possible. 

    Idk about Baltimore. 

    Europe is going to depend on the port.

  5. I just left the Captain's Corner and asked about Project Discovery. 

    I was surprised when the Captain deferred to the hotel director for an answer, but the answer was interesting. 

    1. There was a large brainstorming meeting held in January.  It included hotel directors, Captains and cruise directors. He stopped short of saying he attended, but it is my impression that he did.

    2. The ship being discussed would be a little smaller than Voyager class. "About 120 to 130 thousand tons"

    3. We should expect to be sailing on this class in 2029.

    Based on this, I am even more convinced there will be some kind of announcement before the end of 2024.

  6. 51 minutes ago, Last Lion said:

    Okay sports fans what happens in a loyalty program merger in this case?

    You’re Diamond Plus on Royal. You are closing in on Elite Plus on Celebrity.

    Way up on both lines so a lot of points earned on a lot of cruises on both brands.

    If a merge were to happen, would loyalty to both brands be recognized by adding 

    up both point amounts to put you at or near Pinnacle level? Or would you be kind

    of shortchanged and given a Diamond Plusy level?

    Asking  for a friend!

     

    All I can do is guess. But hey, here goes!

    My bet is that the program is combined in name and in levels.

    However,  the exact benefits will differ based on which line you are sailing. The points to reach each level will be increased, but all of your existing points with either line will be recalculated, giving many a higher number of points. Even if you fall below the threshold for your current level,  you'll stay at that level anyway.

    The tricky part is how to make the points consistent across the 2 lines. Royal rewards getting on the ship. Celebrity rewards booking a suite. IDK how they'll address this problem 

  7. 51 minutes ago, Last Lion said:

    Okay sports fans what happens in a loyalty program merger in this case?

    You’re Diamond Plus on Royal. You are closing in on Elite Plus on Celebrity.

    Way up on both lines so a lot of points earned on a lot of cruises on both brands.

    If a merge were to happen, would loyalty to both brands be recognized by adding 

    up both point amounts to put you at or near Pinnacle level? Or would you be kind

    of shortchanged and given a Diamond Plusy level?

    Asking  for a friend!

     

    All I can do is guess. But hey, here goes!

    My bet is that the program is combined in name and in levels.

    However,  the exact benefits will differ based on which line you are sailing. The points to reach each level will be increased, but all of your existing points with either line will be recalculated, giving many a higher number of points. Even if you fall below the threshold for your current level,  you'll stay at that level anyway.

    The tricky part is how to make the points consistent across the 2 lines. Royal rewards getting on the ship. Celebrity rewards booking a suite. IDK how they'll address this problem 

  8. 1 hour ago, Lovetocruise2002 said:

    Well if Royal and X are going to merge, I sure hope it's effective immediately. I have a sailing on Reflection in August. 😉

    My earlier post was speculating that they will announce it in about 2 months. I'd expect it to take effect immediately after the announcement. 

    We'll know soon enough if I'm prescient or just a old fool with a big mouth!

  9. 1 hour ago, smokeybandit said:

    But even that can be misleading since half the crew on the ship a typical passenger never sees. And that crew's jobs can be highly dependent on that ship's technology.

    Now if they published the front of the house crew numbers/passenger ratio, that would give a better picture.

    Any objective, numeric measure can be misleading.  So much of the feeling that a ship gives is subjective that no measure will be perfect. Regardless,  a ship that has a low passenger to crew ratio and a high gross tonnage per passenger is likely to feel much more spacious and relaxing than one with the opposite metrics. 

  10. 49 minutes ago, Mikei31 said:

    It’s simple.  The big, new ships are directly made for and marketed to families and young adults.  They are simply amusement parks on water.  The amenities aren’t intended for older people.  Therefore you are going to be disappointed and feel left out.

    I’m no cruise line genius but id have to imagine its a lot more profitable getting a family of 5 with young kids on board rather than 2 old people.

    Families and kids will spend money on extras.  Older people are generally conservative.   There’s a reason why Icon has been marketed as the “ultimate family vacation.”   Nowhere does it say cruise and that’s on purpose.
     

    With that said, I saw an article recently that said the average age of cruisers has come way down.  So the efforts the cruise lines are making are clearly working.

    I think this might be part of the reason RCG has hinted they'll combine the celebrity and RCI loyalty programs.  If they can get the old timers to graduate to Celebrity,  that will leave RCI to concentrate on families and younger people. 

  11. Different strokes for different folks. I too prefer "smaller" ships. For me that's Freedom or Voyager class.  For you it might be something different. 

    As far as how crowded a ship feels depends on a lot of things.  Cruzely.com used to have a ranking of gross tons per passenger.  Since gross tonnage is a measure of volume,  this gives some idea of how spacious the ship will feel.  Carnival was among the worst on that measure. 

    But tonnage per passenger isn't the only thing. More nebulous stuff like how well people are distributed and how well traffic flows are also important. 

  12. 2 hours ago, Ryan79 said:

    @mom2mybugs San Juan is one of the VERY few ports that is known to strictly enforce check-in times. Just a nugget of wisdom that I wanted to pass along since many of us are in the habit of just showing up whenever! 

    Wow. That hasn't been my experience.  I've sailed out of there twice and I have never seen them check the time 

  13. 18 minutes ago, Floski said:

    I've been trying to talk myself into another late Feb cruise next year, but I just can't justify the ridiculous prices.

    Then, when you add in all the other stuff you have to pay for (don't think the local hotels aren't aware), it's jut too high.

    And we just turned Diamond on our Wonder cruise last month.  I may never see those benefits.

     

    Maybe it's time for us to take that trip back to Germany that we've wanted.  

    I never try to justify the cost. That sounds harsh, but there really isn't any way to justify it the same way you might justify a car repair for example. 

    I look at the cost and decide if I can afford it and if I want to go.

    Unfortunately,  all travel us now outrageous. Therefore,  choosing a different type of vacation never reaches the savings I anticipate.

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