Morganno

Still showing vaccine requirement for cruises out of Cyprus for me. I presume Barcelona will be the same. 

I'm so enjoying Matt being speechless. Amazing if I was watching live I would definitely have chipped in the odd 5 bucks lol

hahaha that would be a good cruise 

On 4/12/2021 at 3:23 PM, JeffB said:

There's mounting evidence from Michigan, among other states, that teens and kids are becoming infected with the more transmissible UK variant at fairly high rates. Fleshing out the actual numbers and comparing them to a baseline in the under 20 age group though is hard.

I've accessed several data bases and what is being said by Governor Whitmer in MI and echoed by Dr. Walenski of the CDC isn't precisely born out in the data I'm looking at. Youth sports, for example, is being touted by Governor Whitmer as a prime source of viral spread and increased new cases in MI. But, from a baseline, it's not under 18s - I would suppose that's who participates in youth sports programs -  that this increase is being seen. It is predominantly in the 20-39 yo group. So????? I've become very skeptical of COVID related pronouncements coming from politicians and the CDC. 

The issue for cruise lines and kids is not one of increasing disease burden in this age cohort (hospitalizations and deaths), it is one of the risks of undetectable viral loads in early infections that get missed by molecular (PCR) or antigen testing as part of a pre-boarding health screening process and then asymptomatic transmission aboard ship as the infection progresses. It's also one of the lines evaluating the risks versus the benefits obtained of allowing families with kids under 18 to sail in the current environment.

My take is that allowing under 18s to sail without vaccination (or 16s if you want to include soon to be available Pfizer vaccines) and with only a negative PCR test to board, does increase the risk of a shipboard COVID outbreak but probably only among other kids who boarded. It's still an outbreak, it should be a medical concern worthy of trying to avoid even though it's not likely to be one that produces serious illnesses. I also believe that the risk of transmission from an infected kid to a vaccinated older adult is very low. However, on any re-start scenario approved by the CDC and within the next few months the best strategy is to not take that risk of allowing kids to sail.

So, if I were providing input to the Healthy Sail Panel that involves decisions about sailing in the current circumstance, I'd say vaccines should be required for al. passengers. At some point, COVID will be a manageable infectious disease similar to influenza, norovirus or the common cold. Kids can sail then. That point gets moved up as kids and everyone else gets vaccinated. But until either of those points are obtained, I'd advice against unvaccinated persons being allowed to board regardless of a pre-boarding  negative test result.  

This is a great resume about vaccinations and sailings but did you know in Europe and Asia cruise lines have been sailing with unvaccinated guests for many months now?

Royal Caribbean has now passed more than 100 000 passengers in its cruises from Singapore and MSC and TUI have been sailing from Europe for many months with only one or two family break outs which were swiftly contained.

RC is sailing from Cyprus this summer on Jewel and kids are allowed on already with a negative PCR test. I fully expect there to be the usual temp checks testing and social distancing rules in place and I don't see any problems arising on their sailings. I think the American cruise industry is doing too much hand wringing about all of this and hope this bill to limit the CDC in cruise ship protocols works as they really have went far beyond their remit as far as cruising is concerned. 

3 hours ago, PG Cruiser said:

Glass half full or half empty?    Safe answer:  It's at the halfway mark

That never bothers me as I always something to top it up  

Do you think that the rest of European summer cruises will be cancelled? 

MSC is the only major cruise line in the med at the moment and they are cleaning up most balconies on their ships are gone and suites are gone as well. I'm surprised that Royal have Harmony of the Seas still sitting idling while Anthem is already announced.

On 4/2/2021 at 8:22 PM, JeffB said:

That's the thing. Almost a contradiction in terms. We have rapidly rising case numbers in most of Europe and plenty of cruising going on out of ports there (an in Asia). Not full on cruising but it's cruising. What's more, is that I read that since large ship cruise lines have been operating on a regular basis there, there have been 19 confirmed COVID cases NINETEEN out of what is being reported as 400K passengers. That's an infection rate of 0.006%

Obviously the safe to sail protocols that are being used apparently consistently among the cruise ships that are operating are working very well. That's all well and good but it doesn't matter to government officials making public health policy. We've been down this road. We know for a fact that SARS2 is much more transmissible than influenza (I've read 4 to 8x). Based on the increased transmissibility of SARS2 v H1N1 concerns, I'm consistently reading a significant amount of worry regarding the potential downsides, from both a health and political standpoint, of greater mobility and the increased human contact that entails. Fear of stoking COVID outbreaks permeates health policy thinking. That's the fly in the ointment right now and I don't see an end to it until vaccines produce the kind of measurable declines in COVID metrics I mentioned above. 

I will be cruising this summer from many European locations.

Belgium will have enough vaccines to fully vaccinate 50% of the adult population by end June and that is only taking into account 1 out of 4 suppliers who can commit to supply.

AZ, J&J and Moderna have not yet given their supply details yet so expect this number to rise perhaps even up to 60% fully vaccinated by end June in time for summer season. I think the Cruise companies might regret moving their ships to cold and wet summer cruises in the UK. 

Not even thinking of two other vaccines about to announce vaccines in Q2, Novavax and Curavax. 

the future looks bright for European Cruises this summer with no CDC to worry about. People might be best hanging fire on UK British Isles cruises to see what's out there in the next couple of months. 

Like I have said before if that is Europe wide then we are talking about potentially 200 million fully vaccinated clients in the EU come July.  Cruise lines would be very foolish not to want to tap into that market. 

I'm a Brit living in Belgium. I was disappointed at first to see the UK government unsurprisingly opted for UK only cruising to UK only residents this summer.

Given over 50% of EU citizens will be vaccinated fully by start of August I hope it will allow the UK gov to drop this UK only rule and also seeing cruise lines amend their offerings perhaps to go to Iceland or Norwegian fjords. 

11 hours ago, JeffB said:

I live in FL. I like most things Desantis does, not all, but most. Threatening to sue is political posturing and that's not to say this isn't the place for it. About a month ago I did some research on this - I'm not a layer so, take it for what it's worth. But I understand the legal basis upon which CDC recommended and HHS promulgated the NSO  and subsequently the CSO. Both of these engaged multiple agencies and relied on taking action through complex, existent legislation. It is very difficult to know who is in charge and who are the decision makers. IMO, it's Becerra of HHS but that is not altogether clear.

The questions posed by the Alaska delegation to Director Walenski (see Matt's post on the home page) highlight the complexity of what is keeping the cruise industry banned from operating from US ports and who, in government can grant relief. On review of this a couple months ago, I didn't find anything that the US Government is doing with the CSO that it is not authorized to do under a PHE that was declared in January of 2020 and has been continually renewed every 90d. Last renewal was on January 7th with the next renewal due before it's expiration on April 21st. I posted elsewhere that it is likely the PHE will be extended for another 90d. That does not mean, however, that nothing can be done to get cruise ships sailing from US ports.

There are two legitimate gripes but neither of them form a legal basis upon which a violation of US code or law or a tort claim upon which an injunction might be granted: (1) The failure of the CDC to timely release the "technicals" everyone is talking about that tell the cruise industry how to move through the 4 phases CDC laid out in October last year. (2) Those phases have been overcome by events. They're simply not relevant and neither is the CSO now that vaccines are out there and proven to be effective in mitigating both the disease burden and spread of SARS2.

The real stumbling block to legal action though is jurisdictional. Who would hear the complaint even if one could be brought. So many obstacles that talking about legal action, IMO, is no more than good theater.       

Hi Jeff, for us Non US readers can you tell me what HHS, NSO, PHE  and CSO mean? 

thanks,

John

@J_KeebleAlso tempted but I need to wait to see what kind of vaccine I get.

I'm due to be vaccinated mid-june if I get one of the 3 week ones Moderna or Pfizerm or the one shot J&J I will be ok for August. If I am unlucky and get AZ it will take another 3 months for me to be fully vaccinated. So I cannot book anything at the moment which sucks. 

19 hours ago, DTMCD said:

Excited cruising is coming back - great news! However, as @JeffBhas said out-with UK and Israel, Europe as a whole is having a disaster when it comes to vaccinating, due to various issues, behind the scenes politics being a big one. Worried Greece/Cyprus and Turkey (the main countries I have seen specifically targeting UK tourists) will end up with their own variants of the virus and further infection of UK and US citizens if either are allowed to travel to Greece and surrounding countries. Worried that on the US mainland side the CDC are watching with bated breath to see how things go in countries like Greece and Bahamas where vaccination isn't as good as UK/US and when it goes the wrong way they can point to their November 1st deadline and say told you all so... Hope I'm wrong, but you can't blame my pessimistic attitude after the last 12 months!

The Q2 April - June period should see 50% of EU citizens vaccinated as the numbers really ramp up.  Q3 July-September predictions show that the EU will have supply to fully vaccinate all citizens by end of September. I have a feeling this date will be lower as the US will eventually stop it's export ban and allow pharma companies to fulfill their legal contracts with other countries. So I wouldn't be so concerned about EU vaccines. 

If 50% of EU citizens are vaccinated by end June that is a HUGE  number of people to sell cruises to roughly 223 MILLION adults . RC would be completely insane not to tap into that market.  Let's say they don't meet their target and only 40% are done. that is still  180 MILLION adult customers. 

19 hours ago, FionaMG said:

Exciting news.

Hopefully we should know quite soon what they're planning for Harmony. I really hope you're not going to need a Plan B for your wedding @J_Keeble... fingers, legs and eyes crossed!

Yes I hope Harmony sails from Italy or Spain this summer. 

Cyprus is a lovely place to start a cruise from I will be following this with interest. 

I think RC will abandon Europe this year. Which is a shame as most EU countries will have 50% of their population and 100% of their retirees fully vaccinated by end June. Plenty of people capable of proving vaccination for the summer. 

Great news, but what about children and more importantly teens.

My boy will be 16 this year in May. So far our country has not approved vaccines for 16+ although Pfizer has recommended their vaccine for 16+

Europe will begin to vaccinate all adults beginning Q3 with vaccines exceed supply by 200% in Q4. This is guaranteed.

So we could look at Halloween cruises having been fully vaccinated. I presume the incidence of covid at that stage would be virtually 0 so a negative covid test for non vaccinated kids should be an option I hope. 

On 1/9/2021 at 5:36 PM, Dad2Cue said:

I'm not sure how it works in the Europe.  Here, there isn't any need to cancel your existing reservation and receive a FCC and then make a new reservation.  Several times I have kept the same reservation number and "rescheduled" the cruise to a  future cruise.  It doesn't even need to be a future cruise.  You just say you want to do another cruise instead of the cruise you currently have. Currently, the change fees are waived with cruise with confidence.  I do this before the final payment date so I don't pay any additional money.   There is no price protection like a L&S.  Your current deposit is used for the new cruise but the reservation number stays the same. You can do this even if you booked nonrefundable.  If you booked refundable, you can always do this without a change fee anytime before the final payment date.

You can also cancel your cruise and receive a FCC but I takes awhile.  You can use the FCC for the deposit under the current rules.

Ha why didn't I think of this.  makes prefect sense.

However I can't find another cruise that suits my son's school schedule at the moment.

I'm waiting for school to announce next year's holiday schedule.

Booked for May 21 but thinking of cancelling and rebooking for the October of the same year. 

If I cancel and they give me £600 in FCC can i use the FCC to make a deposit on the October cruise? 

thanks,

John

On 12/12/2020 at 8:11 PM, RickinSTL said:

If we can get over this junk by September through Vaccinations then I see no need for a mask. Or those that aren't vaccinated should have to wear a mask.. 

 

 It is not yet proven that with the vaccine you can't catch or spread the virus sadly. Perhaps by September more studies will have been done. Still even with a vaccine 10% of those vaccinated will not be immune and can infect each other. It's wait and see but don't expect masks to go away this year even with mass vaccination programmes.

I'm just hoping that their use outdoors on a ship can be relaxed as I really don't want to wear one sitting outdoors. 

On 12/10/2020 at 10:45 PM, melmar02 said:

I might, but DH would not. I'm not allowed to cruise without him, so I guess I am out.

Not allowed 

On 12/10/2020 at 9:22 PM, bhageerah said:

At this point I really do not want to wear one while on a cruise, but if it meant that I would be able to relax on a cruise ship again, I would wear one.  I will say that the requirement would make having a balcony room far more important than before! Being able to grab some food and go back to the room (or have room service deliver it) and just sit out there and relax would be good enough for me.  I would spend some time around the ship and would wear a mask but I would also truly appreciate the time away from the public and on the balcony.  

I agree I would definitely cruise with a mask requirement but I would also definitely avail more of room service for my meals. For us we have spoiled ourselves with a Balcony so would not cruise unless we can afford one. 

I think a lot of studies have shown that the chance of infection in the open air is very limited and people would have to be inches away from you with no wind,  therefore I think that once seated outside the mask requirement should be dropped. 

Also can we keep covid posts specifically in relation to cruising if possible, otherwise it quickly descends into political arguments. 

Happy sailing everyone, when it comes. 

On 12/5/2020 at 3:40 PM, Jim S said:

I’ve just booked that same cruise from Barcelona. Hope it does not get cancelled.

Nice one Jim. Hope to see you on board... 

On 12/1/2020 at 12:51 PM, J_Keeble said:

bloody better be! im getting married on her voyage in september 2021. 

 

i see allure is still in south England but dont want to go on her! i want an AMPED ship damn it ! aha!

Congrats on your future wedding... 

HoTS 9 May 2021 

Hope so I've booked to go on her in May 09' 2021  

Really looking forward to have something booked going from Barcelona on Harmony, the ship I was on from Florida last August.

Don't have to make the final payment until 13th March so we can see how it's progressing by then.

However I did opt for the drinks package already as it was only £38 per night. Never seen it that low before. 

Anyone else feeling more upbeat since the vaccine announcements. 

Did they say US sailings only? I must have missed this part.

I'm hoping European sailings begin also in March 2021.

Good morning all from a sunny Belgium it's been 515 days since I disembarked from Explorer of the Seas in Southampton.

I like RC blog for it's reliable no nonsense information but I am finding it quite US centric.

Where can I find reliable information on possible start dates for European sailings.

Are RC only starting in Europe when the US government says its ok?

From what I can read they are starting worldwide on 1st December. 

Any reason to think this won't happen?

Thanks

J

16 hours ago, twangster said:

The French charters are complicated in that there are French nationals departing from Italy and visiting Italy and Greece.  They are 14 day charters.  They may have tried to return to normal too quickly rather than sticking to Italians cruising to Italian ports.  

With the situation in France appearing to spike it's possible additional travel restrictions may be put in place within the EU.  Much like Americans aren't welcome right now, possibly neither should the French.  At some point the border between Italy and France may close again.  If the ship has 600 French nationals on board but they could be in a position where they can't return home to France that places Costa in a very awkward position.  The safe thing to do is get those French nationals back to France ASAP and cancel additional French charters.

Seven of six hundred guests tested positive and were isolated all being asymptomatic.  I am curious what the false positive rate is for the types of tests being used.  No test is 100% accurate.    It doesn't say if additional testing was performed for the seven guests that tested positive on board.  No crew tested positive. 

It appears like the protocols worked but they tried to go big, visiting multiple countries on longer cruises.  That or the 1.1% positive test rate contains some false positives.

I fully agree however as a committed European I think we need to stop closing borders.

There is frankly no evidence to suggest that me travelling from one location to another helps spread the virus.

The virus is everywhere and people travelling will not make any significant difference.