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State of Florida Sues CDC Over Cruise Shut Down


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10 minutes ago, steverk said:

Regardless of how the lawsuit plays out, I'm convinced that much of the progress that has been made with the CDC is a direct result of the CDC trying to stay ahead of the lawsuit so they can claim it is unnecessary.  In other words, the lawsuit is already having the desired effect of getting cruising started. 

If the lawsuit hadn't happened, I don't think the CDC would have budged and we'd still be looking at November for the earliest possible start date.

Valid point. Something had to happen to spur the CDC to make the changes that they have

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15 minutes ago, steverk said:

Regardless of how the lawsuit plays out, I'm convinced that much of the progress that has been made with the CDC is a direct result of the CDC trying to stay ahead of the lawsuit so they can claim it is unnecessary.  In other words, the lawsuit is already having the desired effect of getting cruising started. 

If the lawsuit hadn't happened, I don't think the CDC would have budged and we'd still be looking at November for the earliest possible start date.

I agree this has spurred the CDC into action. I was afraid before this that the CDC was going to extend the CSO. 

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17 minutes ago, UNCFanatik said:

Valid point. Something had to happen to spur the CDC to make the changes that they have

It's not just the FL lawsuit. It is a host of pressures from various quarters on the HHS/CDC. What is frustrating to me is that given the CSO's absurdity that these "smart" people with in the CDC haven't figured out a graceful way to back out of it. While the whole issue of the HHS's/CDC's approach to the pandemic has been questioned, it's absurd approach to the cruise industry and the risk of outbreaks on cruise ships is so obviously flawed, it stuns me that congressional inquiry and action isn't ongoing.

When I think about it, nothing new, actually. On multiple issues not related to cruising legislative action from the federal level gets mired in politics and other priorities. It's easier for politicians to punt to the courts and hope a federal judge sorts this out. In case you haven't noticed for over a decade, this has been the modus operandi of our elected officials. It's not a good thing.

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15 minutes ago, JeffB said:

It's not just the FL lawsuit. It is a host of pressures from various quarters on the HHS/CDC. What is frustrating to me is that given the CSO's absurdity that these "smart" people with in the CDC haven't figured out a graceful way to back out of it. While the whole issue of the HHS's/CDC's approach to the pandemic has been questioned, it's absurd approach to the cruise industry and the risk of outbreaks on cruise ships is so obviously flawed, it stuns me that congressional inquiry and action isn't ongoing.

When I think about it, nothing new, actually. On multiple issues not related to cruising legislative action from the federal level gets mired in politics and other priorities. It's easier for politicians to punt to the courts and hope a federal judge sorts this out. In case you haven't noticed for over a decade, this has been the modus operandi of our elected officials. It's not a good thing.

I fully agree. The CSO should have been dropped in May at the latest as vaccinations were on the rise. 

It will be interesting to see if the PHE which was renewed in April will be renewed again in July. Excuse my ignorance, but if the PHE is lifted will that mean the CSO by default will be lifted or two separate matters?

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9 minutes ago, UNCFanatik said:

I fully agree. The CSO should have been dropped in May at the latest as vaccinations were on the rise. 

It will be interesting to see if the PHE which was renewed in April will be renewed again in July. Excuse my ignorance, but if the PHE is lifted will that mean the CSO by default will be lifted or two separate matters?

It is my understanding (from the La Lido Loca youtube channel) that the CDC had to have a PHE in order to have the authority to issue the CSO.  Therefore, if the PHE goes away, so goes the CSO.

This leads to another interesting question that is above my pay grade.  The CDC has argued in court that the law allowing sailing to Alaska depends on the CSO. So if the PHE goes away, the CSO goes away. Does that mean no sailing to Alaska? Surely that wasn't the intent of Congress when they passed the law!

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12 minutes ago, dv70 said:

From the text of the CSO:

image.png.b22fbc56fea0efff5ee66590a18a7342.png

 

So, presumably if the Public Health Emergency declaration is allowed to expire, so too does the CSO?

 

Thats not likely to happen anytime soon.  It is the basis for a lot of federal funding and programs related to Covid 19, including the vaccination program.

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10 minutes ago, steverk said:

It is my understanding (from the La Lido Loca youtube channel) that the CDC had to have a PHE in order to have the authority to issue the CSO.  Therefore, if the PHE goes away, so goes the CSO.

This leads to another interesting question that is above my pay grade.  The CDC has argued in court that the law allowing sailing to Alaska depends on the CSO. So if the PHE goes away, the CSO goes away. Does that mean no sailing to Alaska? Surely that wasn't the intent of Congress when they passed the law!

That's a legit question and one that is raised by the HHS/CDC attorneys in one of their filings. They claim just that. FL's reply in a subsequent filing calls that claim absurd. And, no, Congress did not intend to define the CSO as a law. As pointed out in a FL filing to make the CSO lawful would require separate legislative action. OTH, that the claim is made by HHS/CDC attorneys leaves it to Merryday to rule on that claim - legally I think it is weak not to mention it makes the CDC look foolish.

Our collective view that if the PHE ends, the CSO ends is probably correct. Like @wordell1I don't see that happening in the short term though. The US will probably go along with the WHO and we're along way from the end of a global PHE. 

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13 minutes ago, nate91 said:

Now the judge will have to make a decision. Anyone know any ETA on this? I saw that Royal expected it soon...soon has kind of become my least favorite word in the last year. ? 

Soon...As in before the next century! ?

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1 hour ago, nate91 said:

I saw that Royal expected it soon...soon has kind of become my least favorite word in the last year. ? 

Soon ... as soon as there are ZERO cases in the whole wide world!

 

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3 hours ago, TXcruzer said:

Mediation has failed, cruising public thrust back into the unknown.

This is absolutely ridiculous that these government agencies can't come to any type of agreement that gives this industry a green light.

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27 minutes ago, JasonOasis said:

This is absolutely ridiculous that these government agencies can't come to any type of agreement that gives this industry a green light.

You know how these government agencies would come to agreement and give the industry a green light?   I think it's very simple!   Give the people a choice to be vaccinated or not!   They know it can be done on a ship, but one side always has to butt heads with the other.  So Sad.   

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Not to start a conspiracy theory, but I wonder if the cruise lines are not taking advantage of the "no test" cruises so as not to weaken this case, because if they were able to cruise under the existing rules, it would weaken the economic impact argument.

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1 hour ago, MrMarc said:

Not to start a conspiracy theory, but I wonder if the cruise lines are not taking advantage of the "no test" cruises so as not to weaken this case, because if they were able to cruise under the existing rules, it would weaken the economic impact argument.

I think it’s more likely because (according to today’s White House briefing) only 52% of American adults are fully vaccinated with only 63% have had even 1 dose.  it’s not even approved in children under 12.  I looked but am struggling to find vaccination data on teens but Missouri today reported that only 13% of teens 12-15 had received even 1 dose and they’re “hitting a wall” vaccinating additional. I know several families, including mine, where the adults are fully vaccinated but are either not vaccinating their teens or taking a “wait and see” approach especially after last week’s Israeli reports linking the vaccine to higher rates of myocarditis in teenage males.  I think fully vaccinated cruises just aren’t going to be feasible especially for cruise lines servicing family markets. 
 

edited to add:  just found it 2.5M of 17M 12-15 vaccinated 1st dose as of 5 days ago, so 15%

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We may be thinking about vaccines the wrong way just like most, and even the experts, thought as the pandemic burst onto the scene that everything and everyone needs to be locked down. Well, that was wrong headed thinking for a number of reasons that have become more and more apparent as time passes and data gets refined....... not everyone needed to get locked down to mitigate the pandemic.

Likewise, not everyone needs to get vaccinated to control the pandemic. SARS2 will never be eradicated and it is a fools errand to try to do that by vaccinating everyone. We are not trying to obtain zero risk of getting infected. We should be trying to control it so that we can medically deal with people who will get infected reducing the risk of serious illness and death.

The data:

  • Death rates and hospitalization rates have plummeted (regional exceptions pertain - I'll get to that). What that means is that the vaccines, even with a global average of around 30-40% receiving at least one jab, are more effective in preventing serious illness and death than experts thought they would be.
  • Death rates in the US from COVID are very close to pre-SARS2 pandemic death rates experienced from seasonal influenza.
  • New cases of COVID have decreased dramatically (regional exceptions). What this means is that vaccines slow, do not stop, transmission even at the low vaccination rates some regions, US states and countries are experiencing.
  • It is important to remember that only a small portion of the word's population (3-5%) is at risk for serious illness or death. The rest may get flu like symptoms but can essentially go about life normally ...... that reality was completely lost early in the pandemic and catastrophic economic and social damage have been wrought because of that.
  • As more people get vaccinated R0 (R naught) for that population trends well below 1.0. Remember that metric? It was king as a measure of "dire consequences" way back then when the virus was spreading rapidly. The media used it incessantly - above 1.0, the virus is spreading; below 1.0 it is receding and therefore controlled. I don't believe a single US state or county in the US has an R(0) > 1.0 - its not even reported any longer for that reason.
  • Another less used metric these days, % positive, was also used to scare people. At it's height, some regions/states had % positives ranging from 10-20%. It's not scary anymore so the media doesn't report it.  Below 5% is considered as an indicator that the virus is not spreading/is controlled; below 3% is ideal. In the US and EU, it's hard to find a sustained % positive > 5%. In fact, many US counties don't have any new cases or deaths and haven't for weeks

Regional exceptions are occurring with the impact of disease burden in those regions varying. The primary underlying cause is a lack of vaccines and poor medical infrastructure in India, and countries in Asia and Latin America. We can't do much about that individually. Collective plans to deal with that are emerging. It will take time. Meanwhile populations in poor countries are going to suffer.  In the US, vaccine hesitancy plays a part in what amounts to small scale local outbreaks with little to no impact on disease burden (hospitalizations and deaths). We can live with this and that is the point.

My take is that at the point around 50-60% of any selected cohort becomes vaccinated, the virus will be controlled. Not eradicated but controlled to the extent that disease burden is nil. .  

IOW, we are already at the point where a return to normalcy in the US is underway. While vaccinating more people will help keep case numbers very low and the risk of serious illness and death right along with that, not getting that final 40% probably isn't all that necessary.  

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with the approval of dozens of ships for test sailing, the case for Florida to overturn the CSO gets weaker every day.  The CDC can now say they have a plan and this plan is working, they are well on their way to getting the cruise industry up and running in a safe an effective manner.  The abundance of the approvals for test sailings also makes it much harder on any effort to overturn or change the Florida law banning vaccine passports for cruise ships and with the threat of Texas following suit, that will push the industry to the new norm of putting ships back in service via test cruises.

What I am waiting to see is how fast CDC turns around the approval to sail after these first few test cruises and what if any old standards they intend to modify or eliminate (ie masks required indoors).

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10 hours ago, JeffB said:

We may be thinking about vaccines the wrong way just like most, and even the experts, thought as the pandemic burst onto the scene that everything and everyone needs to be locked down. Well, that was wrong headed thinking for a number of reasons that have become more and more apparent as time passes and data gets refined....... not everyone needed to get locked down to mitigate the pandemic.

Likewise, not everyone needs to get vaccinated to control the pandemic. SARS2 will never be eradicated and it is a fools errand to try to do that by vaccinating everyone. We are not trying to obtain zero risk of getting infected. We should be trying to control it so that we can medically deal with people who will get infected reducing the risk of serious illness and death.

The data:

  • Death rates and hospitalization rates have plummeted (regional exceptions pertain - I'll get to that). What that means is that the vaccines, even with a global average of around 30-40% receiving at least one jab, are more effective in preventing serious illness and death than experts thought they would be.
  • Death rates in the US from COVID are very close to pre-SARS2 pandemic death rates experienced from seasonal influenza.
  • New cases of COVID have decreased dramatically (regional exceptions). What this means is that vaccines slow, do not stop, transmission even at the low vaccination rates some regions, US states and countries are experiencing.
  • It is important to remember that only a small portion of the word's population (3-5%) is at risk for serious illness or death. The rest may get flu like symptoms but can essentially go about life normally ...... that reality was completely lost early in the pandemic and catastrophic economic and social damage have been wrought because of that.
  • As more people get vaccinated R0 (R naught) for that population trends well below 1.0. Remember that metric? It was king as a measure of "dire consequences" way back then when the virus was spreading rapidly. The media used it incessantly - above 1.0, the virus is spreading; below 1.0 it is receding and therefore controlled. I don't believe a single US state or county in the US has an R(0) > 1.0 - its not even reported any longer for that reason.
  • Another less used metric these days, % positive, was also used to scare people. At it's height, some regions/states had % positives ranging from 10-20%. It's not scary anymore so the media doesn't report it.  Below 5% is considered as an indicator that the virus is not spreading/is controlled; below 3% is ideal. In the US and EU, it's hard to find a sustained % positive > 5%. In fact, many US counties don't have any new cases or deaths and haven't for weeks

Regional exceptions are occurring with the impact of disease burden in those regions varying. The primary underlying cause is a lack of vaccines and poor medical infrastructure in India, and countries in Asia and Latin America. We can't do much about that individually. Collective plans to deal with that are emerging. It will take time. Meanwhile populations in poor countries are going to suffer.  In the US, vaccine hesitancy plays a part in what amounts to small scale local outbreaks with little to no impact on disease burden (hospitalizations and deaths). We can live with this and that is the point.

My take is that at the point around 50-60% of any selected cohort becomes vaccinated, the virus will be controlled. Not eradicated but controlled to the extent that disease burden is nil. .  

IOW, we are already at the point where a return to normalcy in the US is underway. While vaccinating more people will help keep case numbers very low and the risk of serious illness and death right along with that, not getting that final 40% probably isn't all that necessary.  

Translation - Its basically "under control" (not gone but it never will be) so lets go on with normal already ... (My translation not putting words in your mouth)

 

 

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2 hours ago, jticarruthers said:

Translation - Its basically "under control" (not gone but it never will be) so lets go on with normal already ... (My translation not putting words in your mouth)

 

 

KISS (Keep It Simple Silly)  You can exchange the Silly for something else but I might be censored!  

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24 minutes ago, 0_0 said:

Hearing scheduled for 6/10/2021 10:00AM. Looks like we're not going to get any ruling until ANOTHER hearing is held. ?

https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/59804600/state-of-florida-v-becerra/

Great June 10th. Just gives Royal another reason to hold up any announcements for July/August sailings because some Royal Exec thinks the CSO may be struck down 

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