danv3

I have one on July 3 I'd honestly rather have them cancel before I have to decide about final payment. Based on Carnival's action, I'm guessing Royal will also cancel only until late June for now.

You're correct, though it's largely an academic debate. CDC can easily shorten the 100 days or lengthen the 100 days. No one should be assuming that a cruise scheduled to depart on April 15 + 101 days will proceed.

Actually the more I read it, the more clear it gets. The last paragraph of the order (on page 9 of the PDF) is pretty much dispositive. It's 100 days from the publication of "this Order" in the Federal Register and that hasn't happened yet. Best case, today is day 0 of the 100 days; more likely it's day -3.

Unclear when the 100 days starts to run. It was set to be re-published in the Federal Register (re-starting the 100 days) but it seems that it has possibly been withdrawn (meaning they may be further revising it): Editorial Note: The agency has requested this document be withdrawn from publication after placement on public inspection. The document will remain on file through close of business on April 13, 2020. A copy of the agency's withdrawal letter is available for inspection at the Office of the Federal Register. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/04/10/2020-07677/no-sail-order-and-suspension-of-further-embarkation-notice-of-modification-and-extension-and-other

Got my RCL dividends today (sold the stock one day after the dividend record date).

I have a final payment coming up soon for a short cruise on July 3. I'm highly likely to cancel rather than pay. I doubt I'll feel comfortable sailing then, but I think it's at least possible that some cruises could start operating in early July. Even though I could "cancel with confidence" just before the sail date, I figure I'd rather have less money tied up in an FCC than in my own bank account. Of course, it's also possible that RCI will cancel that cruise and I'd have the possibility of a refund, but as for me, I don't think I want to pay now to wait to see what RCI does.

Got to say, I'm not remotely confident that cruise lines will "get back to normal" and return to "past results" any time soon. By 2025? Maybe. But how does RCI fill its *growing* capacity in 2020? 2021? First-time cruisers aren't going to be giving cruising a try any time soon, and even diehards can only afford so many cruises a year. I could see them selling off ships (assuming anyone would buy them).

I suspect that some number of employers will require a 14-day quarantine after cruises for the foreseeable future. Many of us here would probably consider that to be unfairly judgmental or even irrational, but given the generally negative impression of cruising among the public at large, I believe such restrictions are likely.

If they declare bankruptcy, I would assume that FCC is as good as gone. You'll be in the position of an unsecured creditor.

Sadly, it's hard to be optimistic about the future of the cruise industry right now. When people, who might otherwise be first-time cruisers, think about cruising, this is what they're now thinking about: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/us/zaandam-cruise-ship-sick-passengers/index.html I have no idea how RCI comes even close to filling its existing ships for the next 18-24 months.

Aft cabins are outstanding.

I think a lot of people at work, neighbors, etc. are going to look at anyone who goes on a cruise pretty suspiciously for a while to come. I wouldn't be surprised at all, for example, to see workplaces insist on 14 day quarantines for anyone returning from a cruise. Lots of people had a very negative impression of cruising before this crisis. Now that will be taken to an extreme.

Up > 17% today. Investors must be hopeful about the potential of a bailout.

These are the only ones I can see happening. Prohibiting self-service in the buffet is a near certainty.

Best case June 1. More realistic July 1.

Now under $20/share. If you're trying to time the bottom (hard to do in any circumstances, let alone these unprecedented circumstances), it doesn't seem like we're there yet.

Many industries are going to be impacted by this and will come looking for a bailout. I think the government is going to make hard choices about who gets saved and who doesn't. Airlines (as one example) are far more critical to the nation's economy than cruiselines. So don't be surprised if the cruiselines don't get a bailout, or don't get as much of a bailout as they might hope for. It's hard to predict what the cruise industry will look like in the long-term. Do all lines survive this? We don't know...but I don't think it's certain that all do.

Well FWIW, according to marinetraffic.com Explorer is currently in Miami with her next destination listed as Freeport.

The market just got a timeout so you have some time to think about this great deal ?

Welp. Princess has suspended operations for 60 days now.

Not sure how strong of a company it will be on the other side of this. I think cruising is going to take a real black eye here. Cruise fans like the people who post on this website will still cruise, but first time cruisers might be hesitant for a while, and RCL has a lot of capacity to fill. I can’t count the number of times I’ve heard the phrase “floating Petri dish” in the past couple of weeks. Whether that’s deserved or not, it’s the impression a lot of people have.

Down 25% today! ?

Personally I’m planning some tax loss harvesting with my RCL. I got in very near the peak. Oops!

Personally, I have never tipped one penny more than the RCI expected amount.

Does Coco Cay still offer the beach loungers/clamshells? It seems like they used to exist, but not sure if they survived all of the changes, particularly to South Beach. Can't see them in our cruise planner for a July 2020 sailing.