VACruiser

I’ve already cancelled a cruise for later this year because I wanted to see what happens. My caution is waiting to see which ports are accepting travelers. I cruise for destinations so if my itinerary changes that would be a deal breaker for me. Wearing a mask on vacation also does not make me want to go cruising; just doesn’t seem like a vacation to me and makes it too surreal. I don’t have a cruise for 18 months so I’m in the wait and see mode. I hope it comes back but...who knows.

I can sympathize with the crew a little bit. It’s not the situation per se that is frustrating, it’s the not knowing and where it ends. I’ve been out of work since March 16th and at first it was ok, but it’s really dragging on now and irritating as we wait for word when we can go back to work. You know it’s coming , but it’s the not knowing that is bothersome and irritating. And, add on that being stuck on a ship and not everyone is going to be happy about that. To the crew it’s a job and not all fun and games like travelers that sign up for a week of travel. I’m sure if you are stuck on a ship as other travelers with COVID cases and quarantined for weeks on end you might feel differently about your captivity. I know I would!

My concern is not if it goes, but what itinerary will it be? I know a lot of the Caribbean islands are not open for tourism so maybe Coco Caye and maybe Labadee. Some people are happy to just be on the ship but I’m not that person. I don’t like sea days and I like to go to places and do things on land. I would not be happy if I didn’t get to go on the itinerary I signed up for but that’s just me.

As you’re losing sleep (oh awesome sleep) I would probably Future Cruise Credit it and look for something down the line. Cruising out of NJ in August could be difficult all by its self. Between New Jersey and New York they are the epicenter for the US in regards to COVID numbers as they have the highest numbers in the US. The chances of the cruise getting cancelled is probably high, but if waiting for more information is causing you mental anguish, it’s not worth the agony. I am getting ready to cancel my cruise in December 20. Not that I think it won’t go but because of the lack of unknowns involved and I don’t want to worry about itinerary changes...I worry a lot so I don’t want to have to care about it so I’ll move it to the next year.

I know cruising will come back this year what I’m worried about is what countries will allow tourists? I can see lots of changed itineraries. If you pick cruises based on islands you want to visit you may be disappointed.

”The company expects to use the net proceeds from the offering of the Notes to repay its $2.35 billion 364-day senior secured term loan agreement with Morgan Stanley“ When you have to borrow money to pay off previous debts that’s not a good thing. I’m not sure what it means exactly but it’s got to do with burn rates they are using to stay a going forward concern.

It has/is interesting to see how a challenged industry is working their financials in a zero income environment. The banks are doing everything they can to keep it a float (intended pun). The CFO’s are really making their salaries now. No one wants to see a huge money making industry go down the tubes but the travel industry is in for lot of problems in the coming years. Older and younger Americans may not frequent the industry as much as in the past so as older cruisers pass away; younger cruises may not want to try the “floating pertri dish” as has been stated over and over by the press. The cruise industry is going to have to pay a lot of money for advertising going forward as it has to fix the curse that has been thrust upon them with bad press. I believe that the future innovation in the travel/cruise industry will be hindered going forward so as to shore up their financials. This COVID situation will be imprinted on the minds of CFO’s for years to come just as much as it was for people in the 1930’s. We will remember it for years as 2020 is a year to remember for the rest of our lives.

I’m with you there - I worked my way up from a Junior Suite on a cruise, that I had to cancel due to the flu, and moved the cruise to December, then moved to a Grand Suite, and under the recent sale, moved to a Crown Loft Suite for not too much additional money. Crazy but that’s what occurred.

My wonder isn’t that cruising will start sometime this summer or early fall, it’s more the thinking of which countries will let you in for travel purposes and will employers require a 14 day quarantine upon your return. I think there is going to be some major changes to itineraries as this starts back up depending on which countries will accept guests. I think Coco Caye is going to get a lot of guests and visits but it can only handle so many ships per day. Think of the mainstays of ports visited - Western Cruises - Cozumel, Mexico, Falmouth Jamaica, Labadee Haiti, and Easterns of St. Thomas, St. Martin, St. Kitts...All different countries with their own Government to work with. They need the travel money so it will be interesting to see the balance between their people and travel money.

I totally agree with this. I was able to upgrade to an L1 CLS from a Grand Suite on Harmony of the Seas for my December cruise for about 1k. This is my second RCI Cruise so I’m going from a Balcony to the CLS 17th floor. I’m ruined!

I actually got a refund on a drink package that I canceled a month ago. I wish I could have just told them to put against my cruise balance but I guess it doesn’t work that way. Oh well, once I got it I just put on the cruise balance before the credit was even cold.

@WAAAYTOOO You don’t know how bad it’s become...for instance, this year’s Dec 20 cruise is in a Grand Suite on Harmony and my Nov 21 cruise is the worst yet - a Crown Loft Suite on Oasis, 17th floor baby!!! This place is bad for starting you down that road!

@Kcusack89I was on the IOS last year in a hump balcony room and I met my neighbor who had a Junior Suite next to mine...I was in 9340 and they were in JS 9338. They were kind enough to allow us into their room to take a look at the differences and it’s a much larger room and bathroom. The balcony room can feel squished, especially in the bathroom area and shower, but the JS is much larger and more like a living room feeling. No jumping around the bed as there is plenty room to walk around in the room. The bathroom is also much larger. The size of a JS is about a balcony and a half room. If the cost is close I would definitely take a Junior Suite over a Balcony hands down. You get double the points and priority embarkation. And, never forget the walk-in closet.

I have a cruise out of Miami on December 6th on Harmony of the Seas and I’m 75% sure it will happen. Not sure of much else, or where it ultimately will go, but as of now it’s Coco Cay, St. Thomas and St. Kitts. Two of the three RCI can’t control but maybe we will go to Coco Cay for three visits ?.

They’ll survive. It will just slow down innovation for the future. Revenue will be down for a couple of years as they pay off debt. New ships won’t come out as quickly or get cancelled and new play areas in the Bahamas will be put off. Cruises work off selling tickets to people with disposable income, and we had lots of it, but now the number of people with that level of income will drop for awhile as we get back to work. On the good side, if you have the money, there should be some great sales for 2021 and 2022 as all the future cruise credits make their way through the system and what’s left is lots of rooms chasing few people that have money. I’m thinking that new cruisers will not come to cruise unless the prices are really tempting - you know the floating petri dish viewpoint that everyone talks about. Most of my non-cruising friends have said those words to me in the past month - like why would you ever go back to that floating Petri dish? That’s what cruise lines are up against going forward. They had some bad publicity and it’s going to be hard to get past that sentiment in the near-term.

Depends on how you look at revenue. RCI has been getting loans to sustain itself, so as potential buyer of stock, you have to look at how much debt they are taking on versus incoming revenue. Will they be able to pay the debt back with interest, pay off bond holders, and Saudi Sheiks, to be able to remain solvent. RCI was making 5 Billion a year before the pandemic occurred which brought us such things as Coca Cay, new ships, and future research and development. How long will it take to get back to that - that is the question? When a stock drops 80% of its value it’s normally for a reason. You have to figure out how bold you and try to capture a falling knife. They always say it is good to buy when the crowd is running in fear and sale when all are extremely happy. Hard to do as we are fear based people. It’s either terror or being over joyed . Look at their earning statements going forward and really no one knows what’s going to happen next in revenue. I wouldn’t want to the CFO trying to forward forecast revenue.

Honestly that’s when I checked in. @JLMoran is speaking in-depth financial discussions and he makes a lot of sense. I am still monitoring but will stay on the sidelines and wait it out or look for stabilization.

The old adage goes - don’t try and catch a falling knife because it will cut you. Wait until it stabilizes along support levels which it blew through all the support levels so there really isn’t any left. It’s in free fall with daily trading at five - six times its normal volume. That’s never a good sign on the falling side. Lots of sellers and few buyers around. Be careful at the moment with money that you need. If it’s disposable income and you want to try, than by all means go for it. We are not done with this situation and April 10th can come and go quickly without resumption of cruises. Be wary if you are a new investor. I thought $30 was going to be a support level but it went right past and never stopped on it’s decline.

Out of sheer curiosity, and envy, how many years are the cruises spread out?

Cruising is about disposable income and it used to be just for the rich. Since we are in a time where the middle class has more money than anytime historically the cruising industry has answered the call and has developed huge ships to meet the need. RCI is a for profit company with publicly traded stock and has to answer to stock holders. This time is a historic period in our lives and they have to figure out a way to stay profitable. As I look above and read the posts I don’t understand the conversations about price increases and being upset. RCI and other cruise companies have to figure out a way to make money and so there is no choice but to raise prices to make up for lost revenue. The only way to counteract that is don’t cruise and they will have to lower the price to entice people to return to cruising. It is about supply and demand...it’s about the elastic part of the economy. As a product is demanded beyond its ability to supply the price increases. When demand exceeds existing stock they build more ships. That’s why we have Oasis class ships. There was a demand so they built them and they have to price the voyage to make a profit. I have no problem with the pricing structures and it seems to me RCI is operating as they should. If cruising returns to normal the Allure of the Seas will get upgraded. That’s capitalism at its best.

As a relatively new cruiser do you mind expanding on your statement I’m not sure I understand the between the lines discussion?

I gave her the Dr’s note in a PDF and she worked the magic but I don’t believe she actually had to use it. At this point the mere mention of the flu will have them giving a future cruise credit to get you off and away from the ship. I can’t say I blame them with all the bad press. Just look at this months RCI stock price and you will see why they are so worried.

I did get a doctors note indicating the positive test for Influenza- Strain A. My MEI TA Michelle Cunningham did all the work while I slept and took tamiflu. And, that is why a TA is worth their weight in gold when it comes to these issues. I also had insurance for the trip too.

As someone who is getting over the flu, and had a cruise set for this Sunday, 8 March 20 on OAS, I can tell you they moved our cruise to Dec 20 without much of a fuss. I got the flu on Tuesday, 3 March and I bet I could pass those medical tests easily so it doesn’t provide much comfort to the fellow passengers. I never had above a 99 fever and the major symptoms were gone within 48 hours leaving me with a bad cough and very snotty nose. But, the doctor told me to stay away from people for 7-10 days as I could be still contagious.

Good thing you looked it up I was too scared to. ?