Percent allowed to sail on first cruises

[Schuler]

When cruising starts back up do you think it will be at 50% capacity? maybe 40%?   So let's say a cruise is going with 40% and they are currently 80% sold. when do you think the 40% getting left on shore will be notified? 

[Baked Alaska]

19 minutes ago, Schuler said:

When cruising starts back up do you think it will be at 50% capacity? maybe 40%?   So let's say a cruise is going with 40% and they are currently 80% sold. when do you think the 40% getting left on shore will be notified? 

I've been wondering the same thing. This is especially troubling when flights are involved. I've two sets of flights for my family that are both future flight credits. If we end up walking the plank as it were, those flight credits will eventually expire. Those cannot be claimed on the CFAR insurance, as I have found out. I'm sure there are many others wondering the same.

[Schuler]

Our cruise for early June canceled so I switched airfare to late july for a cruise that was also canceled. currently have airfare for July 25th to August 5th.  thinking of booking Aug 2nd to Aug 9th cruise and changing airline tickets again. but I'm gonna wait for now.

[Ampurp85]

I think it will be maybe 60-70% depending on ships, given the Allure fiasco, I'm thinking new bookings. I doubt they will just kick people off. More like announce new sailings and allow people to book. That way they can avoid some backlash, not all.

[YOLO]

7 minutes ago, Ampurp85 said:

I think it will be maybe 60-70% depending on ships, given the Allure fiasco, I'm thinking new bookings. I doubt they will just kick people off. More like announce new sailings and allow people to book. That way they can avoid some backlash, not all.

That's what I was thinking.  If/once they determine the sail capacity per ship, will they need to have everyone re-book just for the ships currently booked over their new max capacity?  Or will it be like the air lines (doubt it) where they offer you additional future incentives if you back out?

[Ampurp85]

@YOLO If we go with the theory of cancelling and rebooking I would say booking the new sailing just a smidgen over capacity, i.e 75%. They are already cancelling ships and offering refunds or higher FCC, so they probably wouldn't offer too many incentives......other than being one of the first to cruise or extra OBC. I cannot see them keeping any of the current Itineraries as is and sailing...unless they are perfectly stacked with pax at 50% or less.

[Baked Alaska]

I would hope that they are not booking ships past the 60 - 75% mark. I don't think it is possible to tell by looking at the RCL booking page. If they are going to bump passengers (using airline terminology here because that's what it seems like) I think that they should leave those that booked with FCC or Lift & Shift on the manifest and bump the regular booking. Still not optimal, but it will be better for RCL (can't believe I'm saying that) trying to figure out the math again. My Lift and Shift started with moving a cruise last year (scheduled for this summer), paying the change fee, applying some FCC from another canceled cruise from this year, then applying more FCC from our canceled March cruise, then finally, Lifting and Shifting to Dec 26 202. AND! I would add that they've probably done some other math in there that I don't know about.   

[sk8erguy1978]

I would imagine the percentage would also need to be determined by ships capacity at double occupancy or max; 60% at double is close to 50% at max.

An example of Oasis using these numbers: https://www.royalcaribbeanpresscenter.com/fact-sheet/21/oasis-of-the-seas/

5606 at double capacity: 60% = 3363

6699 total: 50% = 3349.50

Of course this is only one example.

Edited June 16, 2020 by sk8erguy1978
fix / clarify / add

[Mrs. Thomas]

They may not have to "bump" too many people if any at all from the first sailings as to be at less than max capacity. I'm sure there are people cancelling their cruises in advance as to not get caught up in the delay of refunds. I would hope that RCCL would be honest with people, but they could easily say to guests that they are running at a certain percentage of capacity and be lying about it. The guests wouldn't really know the difference between 75% and 60% as the Oasis class (which is thought to be the first ships to run) are so big. I honestly wish that if the idea is to run at a certain capacity that they stop letting certain cruises be booked after reaching that percentage. I don't know if they are doing this, but there are lots of cruises still on the site that I would think is at a high capacity already. However, they may surprise us and sail at 80%+ capacity and just say that people need to wash their hands and wear a mask.

[Jill]

I would imagine one reason for lift and shift was to get people off these late summer/fall cruises to reduce capacity. If they still need to reduce the numbers, my guess would be offering a healthy FCC to move. I don’t think they would bump people off. It’s not like the airlines where you can just catch a later flight that day. I think that would really upset people. For those that work, some companies aren’t flexible moving your vacation time. 

We’ll all have to wait and see....

[Ampurp85]

@Jill  That was my thinking too, L&S was designed to gauge interest in sailing. If a bunch of people rushed to cancel a ship or itinerary, then they would be able to reason away that sailing. We have been speculating, since they said they would start with limit ships at a certain capacity, for awhile. My guess would be other than holiday cruises, none are more than 80%.