LizzyBee23
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Posts posted by LizzyBee23
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28 minutes ago, TXcruzer said:
I think the timing of ending the PHE will be directly linked to the FDA approval of at least one of the vaccines. Once the PHE ends, the EUA is null and void, and vaccines must stop unless full FDA approval has been granted.
I've heard this before, and just want to set the record straight: you don't have to be under a PHE for the FDA to authorize an EUA. THE HHS secretary can give the FDA permission to issue an EUA outside of the PHE. Not clear what that would mean for existing EUA's, but one would assume it's a relatively trivial matter of shuffling paperwork to get new signatures. There are a few therapeutics in work that may also justify EUA's over the time frame of a waning public health emergency.
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On 5/23/2021 at 9:05 PM, WesKinetic said:
I think you hit the nail on the head. IMHO, this is the key thing the cruise lines are looking at. We can debate COVID numbers and vaccine efficacy until we’re blue in the face. But we all know that some journalist out there already has their “Pandemic on the High Seas” article written and is just waiting on the name of a ship to plug in. The first time there is a COVID transmission on a ship, it will make for sensationalistic international headlines. As unfair as that might be, it’s reality. So I think the cruise lines are really looking at how best to minimize the chance of that PR nightmare coming to pass and requiring vaccines seems the best and simplest way.
They published it yesterday (outbreak onboard ship before cruises even began!!1!). Wherever there are humans, there will be SARS-nCoV-2 (and maybe COVID) from now on.
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https://www.thecut.com/amp/2021/05/4-royal-caribbean-crew-members-disembark-cruise-with-covid.html
Another hyperbolic take. Just in case anyone has any lingering thoughts that the media can be managed if cruise lines somehow manage to toe the nearly impossible line.
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12 year olds have twice the risk of 7 year olds, which is to say 4 in 1,000,000 instead of 2 in 1,000,000 of succumbing to the disease. Beyond absurd.
- Ogilthorpe, Neesa, HBCcruiser and 1 other
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1 hour ago, smokeybandit said:
This will go nowhere for reasons totally unrelated to covid, but at least they're trying
I'm not so sure... Biden doesn't really have any options. I'm assuming that public pressure will swell to end the emergency before the next holiday season, absent major changes in the disease. Also betting the virus is headed for an endemic, seasonal cycle. So that gives the following options: End it now while cases are falling, but before a vaccine for young kids has been approved under EUA (if one ever is). End it toward the end of the year, when cases are inevitably rising (the burden of which is hopefully mitigated by vaccines) but bet the farm on a vaccine for kids being approved under EUA that gives you cover. Or end it next Spring when cases are back at a low but you've taken the political hit from extending it for so long.
I wouldn't be surprised if this measure makes it (it gives Biden an out when he would otherwise have to make a precarious choice), but I think the chances are slim. I think even a successful summer for the cruise lines doesn't necessarily bode well for a stable future until the public health emergency is lifted.
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7 minutes ago, Matt said:
Mediation scheduled for 9:30 a.m. on May 27, 2021.
1 week! Eek.
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1 hour ago, smokeybandit said:
Actually, I've never been there (until Adventure in July happens). We're always partial to the western/southern stops
Same! Never had an interest in going until the kids came along, and we were never really the type to do a short cruise just to do it (not that we have the means to do so, either). Our first time was supposed to be in Aug 2020 on Mariner (now Nov 2021 on Indy and then heading back in Dec on Harmony)
Buuut, we were cleaning and I was going through some of my husband's old college stuff (at his request), and found one of those souvenir pictures of him at Coco Cay while on a short cruise aboard Enchantment (I think). This after he let me gush about taking the kids there and nary a word that he had already been. I suppose I can't fault him for that given how much it has changed recently.
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The ASTA filed their amicus brief and it makes for a good read. No idea who's site this is, but it can be found here:
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46 minutes ago, CruisinForABruisin said:
You wanna put politician's, some of whom believe that Jewish space lasers started the California wildfires, in charge of public health decisions?
Insofar as making policy is their job, yes. They're abdicating their responsibility by letting bureaucracies claim what should be the responsibilities of the legislature. Politicians do it to give themselves political cover, and it eventually leads to an electorate that gives them free passes by treating them like idiots instead of cynical professional politicians.
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It looks like Merryday also said ASTA can file their amicus brief today, and must do so by 5/21. A small victory, but good to see nonetheless.
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11 minutes ago, UNCFanatik said:
I hope he is right. Too much of this state of Limbo crap. They wouldnt need mediation at all if CDC was a competent agency. But I am hoping this doesnt drag out to the deadline of June 1st. CDC needs to make concessions and then its done.
I also think the CDC needs to be put in check. It should be on politicians to implement such sweeping measures for this long... We don't get to vote for the CDC, and it's hard to argue we're in a true public health emergency anymore.
- UNCFanatik, Baked Alaska and coneyraven
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8 minutes ago, Phoenix said:
In a nutshell, the State of Florida wasted their time in a futile move to out-do the CDC as the Courts have thrown it back to "two children having a sibling spat to work it out amongst themselves."
It's kind of hard to argue that's the case when one option was for the judge to just rule in HHS/CDC's favor.
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So mediation must occur before 6/1 (must be scheduled by this Thursday) with the mediator's report due 7 days after that (6/8).
I have no idea what to expect... It doesn't seem like this is targeting at resolving a single issue, so I would presume the entirety of the case is on the table.
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On 5/13/2021 at 5:50 PM, DunkelBierJay said:
let it all play out...segregating and division won't work for anyone.
Finally some sense.
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2 hours ago, Matt said:
One thing cruise ships have going for them that MLB teams don't is multi-tiered approach.
Yankees rely only on vaccines. Based on what I've seen on TV, mask use is a joke among staff/players.
Cruise ships will have testing of every single person coming onboard, contact tracing, etc.
So I don't believe what MLB is seeing will be an apples-to-apples with cruises.
Something that the cruise industry has been telling the CDC, and the CDC has kind of relented on, is cruises cannot be a zero risk scenario. So yes, cases on a ship should be met with quarantine, treatment, contact tracing, and proper care. But as they show in the entertainment industry, "the show must go on".
In a world where COVID just isn't as deadly by virtue of population immunity (either derived from vaccines or from prior infection) and an improved standard of care, I would argue everything other than ensuring a ship is ready to provide urgent medical care (which let's be honest, cruise ships were lacking in this regard prior to COVID) and follow typical respiratory virus protocol (ie confining to quarters for a positive, symptomatic case) is theater. We are making no effort to contain the virus on shore, why would on a ship be any different, unless you are at risk of not being able to provide medical care if things go south?
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8 minutes ago, twangster said:
Not a big deal. My understanding is that vaccinated shouldn't have a rough go of it and probably won't need hospitalization. It will be interesting to see if that proves true.
If you're operating with a "no cases on board cruise ships" mentality it's a pretty big deal.
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10 minutes ago, twangster said:
Don't follow the Yankees. Are they only allowing vaccinated fans in right now?
They had seven people pop positive among their fully vaccinated coaching staff.
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4 hours ago, twangster said:
Once you lose credibility or the appearance of losing credibility it's 100 times harder to gain it back.
This new messaging of "vaccinate and you are free to go back to the old normal" has to roll down to cruising at some point. We'll soon see retailers eliminating their mask policies, then planes and trains will follow and with each step it's harder and harder for the excessive ship policies to be upheld by the CDC.
I have an interesting anecdote about that: we have a new double a team in town with a new stadium to boot. Had their home opener on Tuesday with masks everywhere and people actively trying to enforce it. Today, not a single mask in sight (except for on the staff) and we were told at the gate they were optional... Even though today was the branded mask giveaway day so they clearly weren't planning on that being the case. In states that have already done away with mandates, today was the beginning of the end with the new CDC guidance.
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6 hours ago, twangster said:
More hurried half baked legislation much like the vaccine passport ban.
Cruise lines can't afford one case. That outcome is unlikely when vaccines can't be required until the public health emergency has been declared over.
The media will quickly shift back to hating cruise ships upon the first "outbreak" of more than one case.
There will be cases on board cruise ships though, vaccines or not... that's not really a question. Look at what's happening with the Yankees right now. If you accept this problematic framing, you lose.
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8 minutes ago, twangster said:
As we all know the flu and this virus are not the same. The flu is well known, as much as it can be. The long term effects of SARS-CoV-2 is not well known nor has the flu produced anything close to the death tally.
In this case an attorney could argue that a prominent public health agency published extensive material regarding the dangers of cruise ships and SARS-CoV-2 yet a sweet innocent child will now suffer an entire lifetime of misery due to becoming infected on a cruise ship.
It's almost like if the cruise lines don't follow the CDC all way into Crazytown with protocols they expose themselves to frivolous lawsuits claiming they didn't do enough to mitigate SARS-CoV-2.
If a grandparent can drop a child out a window and then sue the cruise line for having windows just imagine the coming tidal wave of lawsuits against the cruise lines.
At least during an initial restart there has to be something to protect companies that are not allowed to leverage vaccines to mitigate risk. If the government is going to ban vaccine requirements then they should protect the companies from related litigation in the same stroke.
Sure, it's not the flu, but life with pathogens isn't new and that's the point. Neither is someone trying to sue after catching one. I don't know of a case where it's been successful, and on the other hand there is actually precedent against it.
This is akin to some of the fears early on in the pandemic, that sent states into a flurry to "protect" employers and businesses by passing broad immunity legislation. I believe Florida was one of them.
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14 minutes ago, twangster said:
If cruise lines are exempt from litigation over virus infections. Unfortunately what will happen is a 9 year old will get the virus somewhere, parents will claim it was on a cruise and they'll seek millions using a FL based ambulance chasing lawyer.
If a law that prohibits asking for proof of vaccination also removes virtually all virus related liability we'd have a winner.
Does that kind of thing happen for noro or the flu now? A vaccine is available for one of those, which occasionally is as effacious as J&J.
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9 minutes ago, LovetoCruise87 said:
What in the world is DeSantis doing calling NCL, "not one of the bigger" cruise lines. Seems he really doesn't care if they stay or not.
I think he's calling their bluff... And I think Desantis is making the right long term move here. Vaccine requirements in the US for a virus of this type should be a non-starter.
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9 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:
Epidemiologists are rare birds though. Events like covid are what they've lived their careers for. They're almost biased by their very nature against these activities.
There's nothing on that list that I haven't done since covid that I would have done prior to covid.
That's kind of Nate's point... They're too removed from what the rest of us consider normal to properly bound risk.
US cruises could restart soon with 'passenger voyages by mid-July,' CDC says
in Royal Caribbean News and Rumors
Posted
From a susceptibility standpoint, even with the vaccine those over 65 are more likely to be hospitalized with symptomatic COVID than unvaccinated kids. If you take that to also mean there are plenty of people in that cohort walking around with asymptomatic or lightly symptomatic disease, then it makes sense to test and require additional protections for that age group as well if your goal is to eliminate the possibility of any virus transmitting on a ship.
I would venture that the first cases of transmission detected on board will be among the older group, as they make up a bigger percentage of the passengers on Alaska sailings and it doesn't seem like they will be asked to socially distance onboard by virtue of having had the vaccine. It's also far.more likely someone in that group brings the virus onboard as they are unlikely to mount a fully sterilizing immune response and won't be tested (you could also say the same for anyone who mounted a less than ideal immune response for some reason, or who got J&J without a natural infection to boost). To my mind, that's just a consequence of life in a world full of pathogens and good medicine, but if that breaks your success criteria you may need to work on a new definition. Also, given that, it seems needlessly punitive to ask more from children.