JeffB

Let me clarify ....... when I say "negotiate" and then suggest they might arbitrate, recall that is what Merryday wanted to happen at the gitgo and the parties did that but could not agree. This time around, at least in the Trial Court, I would expect Merryday to ask the parties to "try harder." With the CDC having the US COA's ruling in their pocket, they may have achieved some leverage but aren't home free so to speak. Merryday's rulling was convincing and powerful. Until Friday the CDC's position was on life support. Both sides can claim support for their positions. So, FL negotiates, gets some reasonable concessions form the CDC on the CSO, who were on the ropes, making it look more like the HSP and both sides claim wins. That's how these things go down when both sides have legit arguments in the narrower case and I think they do. What I'm saying here has nothing to so with these larger issues that are becoming obvious. I don't think the lawyers care about that right now. They want to survive the 15 round match with a draw, the CDC more than the state of FL.

Understood the former but, it is my understanding that the US COA essentially reversed Merryday's ruling that rejected the CDC's request for a stay. Ipso facto the CSO remains in effect instead of expiring - maybe that's what your saying and I'm misreading your post. Oh, I don't think there is any question that the involved federal judges know that striking down the CDC's authority to issue the CSO and labeling it as unlawful and an abuse of executive authority granted in the US Constitution and more narrowly in this case codified in U.S.C 42, section 264, which is exactly what Judge Merryday did in his written ruling, would be a big deal. I'd argue that the US COA wants this pushed up to the USSC becasue it is a big deal and that may be what happens when all is said and done. Two points: (1) What those that have cruised recently have experienced is cruise operations dictated by the SARS2 pandemic. Personally, I'm fine with that .... for the time being and until all of this sorts itself out, and it will. The mitigation measures are inconvenient on a scale of somewhat to a whole lot depending on a cruiser's circumstance. It is going to take a while to sort out the pandemic's ongoing and future impacts. So, get used to it. (2) Given (1) the larger issues and what you are talking about here are the implications on government regulatory authority that the court's rulings on this singular FL law suit might have going forward.

And, so what. As I posted up thread, the CSO is now baked in to restarts from US ports. The lines are adapting to health care policies in foreign ports. These seem, for the most part, more or less mirroring the US CDC's guidance via the CSO. What's important in regards to that is that the lines have almost uniformly adopted the provisions of the HSP and have clearly demonstrated those recommendations are kicking COVID's ass. Sure, they aren't making cruising risk free wrt infectious disease and the highly transmissible variants of SARS2 but what the lines are doing is reducing the risk of bad outcomes aboard all cruise ships (ala, the Princes Cruises, Diamond Princess of 2020). From the record, I'd say the risk of a really bad COVID related outcome on cruise ships following HSP (and I'll reluctantly add CDC's) guidelines and recommendations is about zero What's important to watch from here on out is how the various involved judges/courts rule on FL's initial claim of unlawful government over reach by HHS/CDC. I have no gut feeling of the outcome. Tough one to all.

I think we have a glimpse of FL's position on this. On Friday last, the CDC filed a request for an extension of the date required for their response to the Trial Court (Merryday's domain). The new deadline for the CDC's response would now be delayed until August 12th. The CSO, as per Merryday's ruling, therefore did not expire today. FL did not contest the request and it was granted. The CSO is still in effect. That leads me to believe FL wants to know how the US COA feels about the CDC's case. The liberal US COA court make-up leads me to believe they support the CDC's arguments to uphold that the CSO is lawful and within their authority to act in a PHE. IOW, this court is more likely to favor a liberal view of government authority (I agree with FL's position that its overreach) to protect PH interests. The US COA's written ruling is not yet in the public domain. I doubt FL's lawyers have had a chance to look at it either. I'd expect that after a careful read of the US COA's written ruling, if FL thinks the US COA is likely to side with the CDC in any appeal of the trial court's (Merryday's) final ruling, i.e., reverse it assuming Merryday will shoot down the CDC's rewrite of the CSO and the CDC will again appeal that ruling, FL may negotiate with the CDC (arbitration). If FL thinks that the US COA will send any further CDC appeals back to Merryday's court, essentially gut punching the CDC, they won't negotiate and will go for the walk-off homerun against the CDC. I think the trends in the USSC are instructive, Among that court's conservative judges, they nevertheless have made rulings this summer that are clearly based on liberal interpretations of the law. That the US COA seems to be more liberal, one would hope that the dissenting conservative judge may have some influence over the two liberal judges. But, I agree with @MrMarc, the outcome and now this thing tracks is interesting.

Thanks for looking this up @CGTLH. In revealing the US COA's likely political leanings, one can see why this case and subsequent opinions by involved federal judges highlights political trends in the US either toward or away from government control of who we are and what we can do. The long term outcomes will definately affect the cruise industry operations from US ports. The debate is not black and white say, for example, it's not only about powerful, liberal authoritarian governance v. Laissez-faire conservatism. For reasonable conservatives it is more about how much regulatory authority is necessary to promote the public's interest. For reasonable liberals it is about the positive role that government can play in obtaining equity and justice. Both sides have good arguments. As I have opined, the immediate and short term outcome of the FL law suit will have little impact on cruising (the short term outcome of the NCL suit will). It's the long range trends in either a liberal view of expanding government authority in the public's best interests or a conservative view of not limiting or restraining what government, in the form of the HHS/CDC, can regulate (or over-regulate) the cruise industry.

Just got back last night from an 8n Celebrity Apex cruise from Athens Greece. We sailed on the 4th sailing of Apex from Athens that started in late June. The 4 cruises have had 300, 500, 600 and 800+ pax respectively. Staff aboard Apex I spoke with think Apex will be at full capacity (around 3K guests) by October. Celebrity sailings from Greece don't have to deal with the CSO or FL vaccine bans. Viral prevalence is low in Greece, though trending up in terms of new cases but not in terms of hospitalizations and deaths. That's the trend just about everywhere. There are rising vax rates in Greece (overall, around 35% and climbing, ahead of the EU average. >65% in over 65s). Greece has been open to tourism since June of last year (with restrictions) and since May 15th of this year with most restrictions removed. You have to be vaxed to enter the country. 100% of crew and 99% of passengers were vaccinated. No surprise, somewhere around 2000 passengers have sailed on Apex since it's first sailing in Late June without a single COVID+ test as far as I know. (they are administered by an agency hired by Celebrity to perform the rapid antigen tests before you board and the day before you debark). Celebrity is trumpeting this and rightfully so. Greece appears to be a trend setter globally in how to help the travel and leisure sector recover. My point is that in light of the industry's mostly uniform implementation of the HSP's recommendations the CSO is an unnecessary burden on the cruise industry with questionable benefits and significant costs. But that is not the most important point to be made here and is now irrelevant. Arguing about the effectiveness or appropriateness of the CSO and CDC's role in regulating health and safety policies on cruise ships has been beaten to death. No longer worth the key strokes or time. I've not seen or read the US COA's 2-1 ruling to reverse Merryday's refusal to stay but I think there is a fundamental view among the consenting judges that looks like this: The implications of setting the precedent Merryday would establish if his ruling stands is a precedent setting matter of complex maritime law better left to Congress to sort out going forward. I personally think this will happen in the aftermath of the pandemic so, I'm sanguine about both this US COA ruling and the apparent agreement from what are probably liberal US COA judges with a tendency to grant government more and more power over our lives. There is strong support across the isle to implement better oversight over both executive and CDC actions in a PHE. Its likely that the US Congress will effectively establish limits to executive (the president and other executive branches of government (HHS/CDC) authority to prevent the spread of communicable disease. Even though the ongoing legal action by the state of FL involves the narrow context of U.S.C 42, section 264 (denying free pratique where the CDC concludes allowing it presents a threat to the pH), ruliong in favor of FL would have wide implications in case law. IOW the US COA judges aren't saying either party's arguments are wrong. It is saying we don't think it is the place of the courts to make or change the law (interpret is another thing so there is some hair splitting here). What's the impact? Nothing really. The industry has more or less gone along with the CSO for restarts from US ports. It's now baked in to their restart plans.. The legality of FL vaccine passport concept ban, when it is resolved in the coming days (or weeks) by the filing of the NCL suit alleging it is unconstitutional (probably) and wrongly trumps appropriate federal authority of the EEOC (that it does isn't debatable, except in Ron Desanti's mind)), will have an impact. As long as we don't have an over-reaction by PH policy makers to the upward trends in new cases in the US and abroad, ameliorated by steady hospitalizations and deaths, normalcy will return to cruising ...... with minor inconveniences in US state's and foreign ports involving ship-board COVID mitigation measures, e.g., masks indoors. There will be exceptions where countries like Japan (and other Asian sovereigns), Australia, NZ are pursing zero COVID through lock-down strategies. Still, there's a definite global trend toward "learning to live with SARS2." I call it an accommodative approach. There are sill loud voices calling for elimination strategies and these are not without basis. Australia is a good example where geography makes it a reasonable approach. Here's the thing: the pandemic will take one of two courses. (1) it will run out of places on the spike protein to mutate and will self extinguish, (2) it will find reservoirs of unvaccinated and/or naïve hosts, continue to mutate into more problematic forms and be more than a seasonal nuisance like influenza presently is. We don't have enough data yet to definitively say which of the two pathways SARS2 will travel down. I can make a good argument for caution but only involving PH policies that correctly balance costs of implementation with PH benefits derived therefrom. Happy cruising.

TBH, I've stopped reading most pandemic metrics reported - summarized is a better word because those summaries can be terribly misleading - by the press. There are data bases available on line that report dozens of different metrics. The good ones don't try to interpret them. One really has to look at what's available and do your own interpreting. I have some knowledge but not the expertise to roll what's available into meaningful conclusions about any number of things having to do with the pandemic. That PH officials and virologists dance around what the data means and speak in frustratingly vague terms is because these people know how difficult it is to make authoritative statements based on the data that is available. I've posted here previously that reporting rising case numbers, without other background data, is not an indication of a worsening pandemic situation. But that is uniformly the conclusion that the press often implies or the reader/viewer of those reports concludes. As well, politics have been folded into interpretations and this is just another factor that makes most interpretations flawed. The best way to proceed is to reject almost everything that is reported in the press and on social media platforms, find data bases that reliably report raw numbers (there are many), study them and draw your own conclusions. Then, assess your own risk tolerance and proceed accordingly. It's too bad that most governments and businesses take liability into account when making policy and that produces various restrictions - inconveniences - that sometimes we just have to deal with.

Yes, they'll make an itinerary to fit your needs. They call these "curated" explorations. I will say this. We booked two ship's tours out of 6 ports and got our money's worth. I'd be hard pressed to pay for one of these curated tours. If you want privacy, I'd check out tours by locals and do your own depending on circulating virus conditions We just did the second one today. First the prices were reasonable for what was delivered. Especially today. This one was a "small group" tour of Rhodes. I think there were 15, maybe 20 people. This was a 4.5h tour of Rhodes that included a tour of the Knight's castle (weirdly destroyed in a explosion and fire in 1856 and completely restored by the Italians 1936-1943 by none other than El Duce, Benito Musilini. The highlight was a "brunch" in a shaded park inside the fortress that surrounds the castle. Three courses with red or white wine - as much as you wanted. Fabulous. The guide went through an impressive 3000y history of Rhodes dating back to 1000 BC. Both guides were really good. First time with a serious effort to book tours through the ship. I was surprised how high the quality of them was ..... the days of a day trip in a cab or hire for $60 are long gone. Good guides that are licensed know there is demand and arranging a tour on your own is both risky for a you pay for what you get standpoint and pricing. Ce;ebrity markets their tours as vetted and high quality. Celebrity delivered. I will probably book another if I still can.

Apex Day 3: We were in Limmasol Cypress today. It is a very popular vacation spot for Brits and EU citizens. Americans visit this city via cruise ships. Its economy is tourism and from the looks of it, pre-covid it was very developed and making lots of money. It's slowly coming back but I'd say it's only about 50% back. Life with COVID protocols aboard ship: Celebrity has a policy of everyone over 15/12 has to be vaccinated to board.Local masking policy in Greece dictates on board masking requirements. All the time inside (except cabins and the usual exceptions). No masks outside - and this was just recently changed about 2w ago. Before that masks were required indoors and outdoors. Case numbers are rising again in Greece after months of declines. Deaths and hospitalizations continue dow trending. The Greek government is considering require masks outdoors again. Aboard ship, no staff are telling guests who are unmasked to mask. I'd say 30% don't wear mask indoors. There is ample signage about spacing. They ask elevators be limited to 4 - one person in each corner. That seems to be pretty well adhered to. I don't mind the masking so, it's no big deal to me. With the protocols, ship life still seems about normal. What's really nice is the pax load - about 800. Nothing is ever crowded. There are no lines. We haven't taken a cruise ship tour since the nearly 2000s when we first started cruising. We booked two on this cruse and finished one yesterday in Lammisol. 16 people on a 3h walking tour. Guide was a PhD Greek art history professor that is based in Cairo Egypt and teaches at university there. She was excellent. Ship tours are reasonably priced with three tiers: Normal Group, Small Group and Private Journeys. Private Journeys are very expensive and involve things like balloon rides, private yacht sailings, helicopter tours are mainstays. Not ever port has the Small Group which is a group under 10. Rhodes, where we will be on day 4, is one. Its a 4h tour with lunch included. Around $90pp. Not terrible, Could probably get for less but during COVID feel better about using ship tours. More later.

Edge class ships are different and Celebrity, learning from Edge, created a better design for Apex. There's a better balance of wood (although most of it is engineered) and plastic so Apex feels more "shippy" than Edge did. Beautiful color schemes, both modern and traditional decor, overall beautifully decorated and appointed. Easy to find your way around with everything marked. There were around 800 guests (up from 300, then 400, then 600) on Apex's 4th revenue sailing. I'd guess maybe 25 kids under 18. Pretty sure this is "managed" - IOW Celebrity wants "fully vaccinated" sailings and bookings are controlled in some way to keep it like that. We felt like we were getting luxury level service - exceptionally attentive and welcoming staff at every venue. Celebrity is like this anyway but this was a different level. Certainly that the ship had less 1/3 of it's capacity (around 3200) made staff attentiveness, lack of lines, exceptional service possible. My advise is to go on these early sailings even though getting there and getting aboard can be a PITA. So far, it's totally worth it. One of the differences in the Edge class ships are the dining venues. There are 4 "main" dining rooms, all aft and stacked on top of each other, port and starboard, decks 4 and 5. There's a buffet (Ocean View Cafe) all the way aft, a burger grill on the pool deck and 6 specialty restaurants with different themes. The premiums to dine in each of these varies but it's expensive. On this sailing (8n) there are 8 dinner seatings. We purchased the dining package for 4 specialty restaurants deeply discounted (each dining venue costs around $30/person instead of the usual $45 - $55 if you booked separately and aboard. The Celebrity Edge class ships are perfectly suited to do this. We will dine in all four of the complimentary main dinning rooms and 4 of the 6 specialty restaurants. One of the specialty restaurants is on the top deck and outside. It's a steak place featuring outdoor grilling. There's also an outdoor movie theater up there. The pool deck is divided into indoor (Solarium) and outdoor pools. The indoor pool area has a cafe serving coffee and healthy stuff for breakfast only. The spa and fitness center is forward on the deck above. Big and well equipped including a spin and HIT studio. Another different sort of thing is what is called Eden. Like a garden with lots of live foliage, it is a bar, entertainment and restaurant (2 of them - one complimentary and one specialty)) area that takes up decks 5 and 6 and a good portion of the entire aft 1/4 of the ship on those two decks. Adjacent to it is a small theater with an adjoining bar. Full production and acrobatic shows are done here along with single performer acts. As a guest, you are right on top of the performers, feet away on the ground floor, 50 feet away on the second level. The main theater is, as in the case of most ships, all the way forward and on two decks, 4 and 5 aboard Apex.

Apex, 8n Greek Isles Itinerary, July 9th to 17th. Quick update Day 2. Airport Arrival: We were nearly 4h late to Athens. Airport Customs and Immigration were highly organized and went smoothly. As you lined up and entered immigration, two airport officials checked that you had your passports, vaccination records and Greece Entry forms you filled out in advance and received a QR code in your email. Our QR codes were easily retrievable in my G Mail Account without an internet connections (stored - nice feature of G Mali for off line access). We arranged for airport transfer to the ship - normally we don't because we don't like to wait for the bus to fill up. Celebrity was prepared for our late arrival, we picked up our bags pff the carousels, cleared immigration (no customs), easily ID'ed Celebrity Reps, went straight to a waiting bus with 5 other couples and off we went to Piraeus. IOW, no wait for the bus to fill up. You can hire a limo or get a cab easily but that's going to cost upwards of 60 euro. Because of COVID, we felt better using Celebrity provided transport ($75). It was a good call. Athens airport is new,clean, everything is well marked and also in English, and nice. Trip to Piraeus took about an hour in heavy late afternoon traffic. Celebrity Check-in. After getting off the bus, lots of Celebrity staff pointing where to go. The check in facility is a tent - fancy but still a tent. There were fans and industrial style AC units that blew cool air but it was still quit warm but not uncomfortable. To enter, you show your passport and express pass as usual. The new part is the pre-boarding antigen testing. If you downloaded the Trust One App (the company that is doing the antigen testing), you registered, received a confirmation email and QR codes. I took pictures of these and saved them on my phone - good thing because to retrieve them for check-in, from the app you need an internet connection. After showing the QR codes we went to an area where there are several lines and staff with tablets )there's no check-in desk. You again show your passport that gets scanned to the tablet and your express pass gets scanned - your checked in. Not so fast. Next, we were directed to the antigen testing area, got tested (nasal swab), waited about 15 minutes in a designated area within the tent and in front of a big TV screen that flashed your QR code number. Took about 15 minutes for the number to show on the screen. Went to the people signing you off and got a sticker so you could proceed to the ship ...... after you went through security. To complete the entire check in process, your dealing with your phone, where you stored testing QR codes on it, your hard copy passport and your express pass. I had every thing I needed on my phone and printed out for back-up. Used both. The whole process was different, more complex and took longer. Normally an Edge class check-in takes about 10 minutes. This took about 45. It was very well organized though. I'll post a ship review next. Apex, the second edge class ship is brand new. It was supposed to start revenue sailings in Europe in May/June of last year. She had been floating around with minimum crew in the Med. I was surprised to learn that Celebrity started bringing staff back aboard 2 months before the first sailing in late July, 2021. Almost 100% of key engineering and departmental supervisory staff were brought back. Enough hotel, kitchen, spa and fitness staff brought back to allow the ship to practice full operations. Crew were moved to guest staterooms, were scheduled to drink at all the bars (there are 7 of these) and dine in all shipboard restaurants - there are 9 of these - the ship, for all intent and purpose, was fully operational as a practice sailing. I was told the crew had a ball. By the time that the first revenue sailing took place, most of the kinks of a restart were ironed out. We were the 4th revenue sailing from Athens.

Headed to Athens to board Apex tomorrow. We are flying out of Miami via Newark to Athens. This is a same day arrival. They're risky. I booked with Celebrity Air so, it's up to them to get us there. We live about an hour N of Miami International Airport. We booked a hotel and stayed there last night with short shuttle to airport. Way too much risk/stress getting stuck in traffic same day with am departure. The hotel I booked has free parking for 3d then $6/d after that. Airport parking is $16/d. I experienced some mild URI symptoms the 3d prior to our flight. I'm vaccinated but still didn't want to get to the cruise terminal in Athens and get a positive antigen test there administered pre boarding be X. If that happens you'll be denied boarding and quarantined by the Greek government. So we went to the airport early and I did an antigen test there.Took 30m. It was negative. As a result we checked in with United about 3h early. The airport was quiet, TSA a breeze and there was no line at the UAL counter. The agent reviewed all our docs that included passports, vaccination record and a pre-arrival form required by the Greek government. That took longer than the antigen test! Tips for international trave: check country entrance requirements and make sure you complete pre-entry forms. Print copies. Book flights with plenty of time between connections Arrive at airport earlier than you would for international travel. Arrive at least 3h before your flight leaves to check in. That is taking longer than usual as staffing is short. Better to get through check in and TSA then sit than be rushed and in a hurry. On COVID testing: Greece requires proof of vaccination or PCR. My recommendation is that even if you've been vaxed and if you have URI symptoms pre travel get tested. Why? URIs, mostly absent for the last year are on the rise. Chances are that's what you have. However, even if you've been vaxed, you can get COVID. An unmasked high dynamic indoor area exposure to a Delta variant can be problematic. I had one of those. Don't set yourself up to get quarantined on international travel. Test.

The last time I sailed on Celebrity over a year ago, they have an iLounge. It's full of Macs. There is some free access and airline web sites might be included. If not, you can create an account and you may be able to pay by the minute or hour or however your ship runs things. There will be a solution for you to check in. I feel pretty confident about that.

Correction: In my post above I incorrectly sequenced how the USCA will review the defendant's appeal. The first step is to review the request for a stay of the injunction pending a review of the appeal. Reverse those two steps. The motion for a stay gets reviewed first The CDC's basis of the motion for a stay is that things are going along smoothly with regards to the cruise lines restarting in compliance with the CSO, i.e., the cruise lines operations make the case for the CSO. The CDC bolsters this claim with their continued claim that cruise ships are inherently riskier, wrt disease transmission, than other forms of public conveyance. The emerging facts don't bear that claim out. Other than those stubborn facts that keep arising and causing the CDC's lawyers problems, there is nothing fundamentally wrong with this basis or documentation that bolsters it. Where there is another obvious problem is the restrictions on full cruise ship operations both in the past (the FL lawsuit notes that harm was done to the state and Meryyday concurred) and going forward. These will continue under the CSO with the attendant loss of revenue to FL unless that document is enjoined according to Merryday's ruling. More precisely, if the cruise lines had been able to restart almost 6 months ago under the guidelines of the Healthy Sail Panel - which have very obviously worked outside the US - none of the economically costly cold and warm storage of cruise ships would have happened. None of the staggering global impact on the economic engine that the cruise line industry is would have happened. A more robust and less expensive, less complicated cruise ship restart under the Healthy Sail Plan alone, without the CDC riding herd, would have occurred. More cruises from FL, the more the tax revenue. More cruise ships that restart the quicker the cruise lines reverse the global economic and unemployment nightmare created by the CDC's unnecessary and unlawful NSO and subsequently the CDC's CSO. A stay continues that unfair and costly happenstance until the appeal is reviewed and acted upon. My previous argument that the CDC's appeal is weak and will fail on it's own makes a successful appeal on review by the USCA unlikely. For heavens sake, don't grant a stay to prolong this craziness.

Certainly your guess is as good as mine. But I don't think the stay will be granted. Remember, this is not a re-trial. The defendant moves for an appeal in the district USCA (step one). They submit documents supporting the request for the stay to the court (step 2) Either the entire court or a single judge can review the material and make a decision sequentially on both steps. Based on what I know of that submission, I've already argued it is a weak appeal (step one). On that basis alone and if I'm correct about the strength of the appeal, the USCA will defer to Judge Merryday's ruling and not entertain step 2. While the defendant can submit documents and testimony to support a stay, I don't think the USCA can move ahead to consider that if the Judge(s) rule that the grounds for an appeal that I listed in my previous post are not satisfied and I don't think they will be. I disagree with this argument. Let's take a look at the argument that congress has recognized the (CDC's) authority by adopting a law that relies on the CSO as part of the law. Judge Merryday shot this argument down when the CDC's lawyers presented it. Why he did that is contained in his ruling. There was some case law cited on this specific argument in Merryday's ruling. The precedent was established in several other cases where similar arguments were presented to the court and the rulings did not support them. Let's look at your scope of authority argument. You are correct. He provided a history lesson in his ruling but that was for the purpose of illuminating the precedent setting case law that limited the CDC's authority. Merryday ruled that precedent certainly did not authorize the CDC to shut down an entire industry's shipping operations for the period of time that they did. This was one of the five claims FL made in it's original law suit and it was firmly supported in Merryday's ruling. I will grant that the USCA's roll is to determine if the law was interpreted and applied correctly so, Merryday's ruling in this specific instance is subject to review. Next you ask, " they don't have the authority unless they use it in a way he agrees with?" Yes, the role of a federal judge is to do precisely what he did....... interpret the law using precedent, where it is available, to determine, in this case if the CDC has the authority to do what they did. Merryday ruled they did not and what they did do was, in fact, create law, the CSO, that only the US congress has the authority to make. This is a classic, and entirely correct, interpretation of the separation of powers provisions in the US Constitution and laws between the 4 branches of government. I'm arguing that: Defendant's haven't presented sufficient evidence that the Merryday trial wasn't fair and/or he interpreted the law incorrectly to grant the appeal (step one). Pretty sure they have to cross that bar before a judge will entertain and review documents supporting the CDC's request for a stay Failing that, a request for a stay can't be granted (step 2) The clock is ticking on FL's request to Judge Merryday for an emergency hearing. For all intent and purpose, that was granted. Since the CDC gave Merryday the finger, refusing to rewrite a CSO that comported with existing law, and filed an appeal with the USCA, if the appeal is denied, and I think it will be, and a stay not granted, the CSO becomes unenforceable recommendations in 11 days on July 18th. TBF, my argument has no more or no less value than @MrMarc's. JMO, YMMV.

You can't make stuff like this up. If it weren't so detrimental to one of the globe's major economic engines and provider of good jobs in countries where nothing like that is available and your typical cruise line, service level employees come from, it would be absolutely hilarious.

OK, great. Not unexpected although I thought the Merryday ruling was lock tight and I think the US Court of Appeals (USCA) will say the same thing and defer to the lower courts decision. An apeal isn't a new trial. Becerra cannot introduce nw evidence or add addtional testimony. Reading the documents, they did just that. It is entirely possible that the appeal, once it is reviewed by the USCA, is heard and the defendants are told, sorry no dice. The Merryday ruling is affirmed. So, what's the time lime? Lets go back to the original suit filed by the stat of FL. You'll recall that FL moved and was granted an expedited (emergency) hearing. That was more or less granted. The CDC lawyers presented their arguments, Merryday considered them in light of the state of FL's submissions and arguments and sent the CDC packing. Subsequently Merryday said you have until July 2nd to submit a rewrite of the CSO that conforms with your authority granted under U.S.C. 42, Chapter 264. Then the CDC asked for an extension and Merry day gave them until 7/22. The clock is still ticking on that original FL request for an expedited hearing. I'm not entirely sure but I think submitting an appeal makes everything Merryday instructed the CDC to do (rewrite the CSO) moot. It now moves to the USCA with the clock ticking and if the appeal fails, and I feel confident it will, Merryday will default to enjoin the CSO. This will turn oout to be a failed last ditch effort by the CDC in all or nothing sort of circumstance. The CDC will get NOTHING. You'll recall Merryday's ruling included the conclusion that the FL suit would prevail on it's merits. Only a successful appeal can change that. No way to predict but it is such a weak appeal, technically flawed (more testimony and more evidence submitted - can't do that) and the FL request for an exeditied hearing clock is still ticking. I suspect if it is a possibility, the USCA simply won't hear it..... I think that's how it works. The USCA can do that. It shuts down the CDC and invites Merryday to move forward with enjoing the CSO Given this chain of historical events in the case and what I think is the outcome of the appeal if it is even heard (see above) - go directly to jail, do not pass go - the CSO gets enjoined. It could be a couple of days, weeks or months and I think the former - in weeks rather than days - is more likely. Look, this is typical legal maneuvering so, fine. Becerra wants to drag this out until the CSO expires and he and the CDC don't have egg on their faces. But on the merits, its's ridiculous and a waste of the court's time. Gut feeling tells me the judge sitting on this case at the USCA will see that. Let's move along here people.

To further understand the two sides of the issue - mask up or don't - have a look at what amounts to a pretty significant shift - and one I think is long over due and needs also to come from the BIDEN administration - in the UK's official position on COVID ......"we are going to have to live with the virus." Boris Johnson is saying we're going to remove most COVID mitigation measures and restrictions on July 19th with an update to that plan on the 12th. As is typical here in the US, Conservative MPs in GB have been urging Johnson to do this while Labor MPs are calling it reckless. I can make a case for both mask-up or don't. There are facts that support both positions. Right now, the UK is dealing with an increase in new cases due to the Deltas but not an increase in hospitalizations or deaths. That is what vaccines promised to do and are delivering. They never promised to reduce transmission or mild illness although they seem to do a pretty good job at that too. Johnson went on to say in this announcement that we can't just keep closing everything down when cases rise. Its too costly on many levels. We have to keep reopening British society and life and deal with the virus spread as best we can. And don't believe for a minute he doesn't have some solid facts to support that position. That the virus is peaking - running out of spike protein places to mutate - means it will recede on it's own with some help from vaccines and our own human immune systems capacity to learn about and fight the virus over time. That's exactly what happened with the Spanish Flu and then there were no vaccines. That has a happened with every pandemic or endemic causing virus in history going back to the Bubonic Plague in the 1300s. https://apnews.com/article/europe-coronavirus-pandemic-business-health-government-and-politics-650b09e7babe362e1777606e6b1a369b

Here is the wording within CDC's January 21st order requiring the wearing of masks by people on public transportation conveyances or on the premises of transportation hubs to prevent spread of the virus that causes COVID-19. Later in the original order, cruise ships are identified as a transportation conveyance. The following is found at the long and cumbersome verbiage that is the basis of the shipboard mask mandate (indoors only) released 01/21/21: *CDC also plans to amend the January 29, 2021, Order, as soon as practicable, to grant cruise ship operators subject to the Conditional Sailing Order with greater flexibility regarding how mask requirements are implemented on board cruise ships. Until it can amend the Order, CDC will exercise enforcement discretion regarding mask requirements applicable to operators of, and crew and passengers on board, such cruise ships and will view cruise ship operators as in compliance with the January 29, 2021, Order provided the operators continue to follow the requirements of any technical instructions and the operations manual available on the Cruise Ship Guidance webpage. This order was ISSUED 6 MONTHS AGO!!! ARE THEY STILL PLANNING? I would assume that RCL management knows the CDC is about to release the promised update that will allow cruise ship operators some flexibility to determine when and where masks need to be worn. What might reasonably happen is that the CDC will say something like on sailings with X% of vaccinated passengers, no one needs to wear masks at all indoors. If all we were dealing with was all vaxed guests, then it would follow and be consistent with CDC's latest mask guidance for vaccinated people - you don't need to mask. I believe that is the protocol for sailings out of everywhere else from US ports except FL. The few FL sailings that have occurred so far are hitting 93%-99% vaxed. No mask wearing in a 70% vaccinated crowd is reasonable and consistent with the CDC's guidance so far. I'd guess that will be the number that the CDC sets ..... it's an easy bar to get over and everyone sailing from FL ports will be happy.

Trip insurance is complicated. There is no simple answer to your questions. I provided a link below that helps explain "trip costs." The link is to a popular web site for pricing insurance called InsureMyTrip. There's lots of helpful information within the web site. I've used if forever. Handy. https://www.insuremytrip.com/travel-insurance-policies-and-claims/trip-cost/ Figuring out what your pre-paid trip costs are is the key to getting the insurance you need, no more, and determines your cost for the insurance. Here's a link that discusses this very important area: https://www.insuremytrip.com/travel-insurance-policies-and-claims/trip-cost/ An important thing to do is purchase your insurance plan to cover whatever advance/prepaid costs your shelling out to start with. You can add new costs later, of course, at a price. There are disadvantages to waiting until you are past the insurance companies "buy by" date. Those are explained at InsureMyTrip. Basically, you loose some benefits if you don't buy the plan by the company's "buy by date." Assess your medical risk. If you have one, assess what your existing health insurance policy covers. Most US based insurance plans won't cover medical costs you might incur outside the US. You can't predict injuries that require medical care. You can predict (estimate is a better term) your health risk from chronic disease. These are higher as you get older. Smaller at younger ages. It would be nice if you could buy "only what you think you need on medical coverage." That's not how it works. You have tiered coverages for medical expenses, e.g., $10K, $20k $100K, etc. The younger and healthier your family is, the less coverage you need - to a point. It's not unusual for a complicated fracture to cost upwards of $10K. Without question, the most expensive thing that can happen to you on a cruise is if you become ill or are seriously injured and have to be medivaced. TBH, the chances are small but they exist and increase with age as stroke and heart attacks become more likely. Those two events are likely to exceed the capability of the medical department aboard to care for you. Sepsis (really bad infections) is another. You are going to get transferred, possibly by air, to a hospital that can provide the appropriate level of care. a bill for that for $250K isn't unreasonable. There is tiered coverage here also. If it fits in your budget and you evaluate your risk of something happening requiring you to be air-lifted off a ship is high don't get coverage under $250K. If you risk of that happening is low, you can go with less. I'd recommend not less than $100K for medical evac but seek out other views on this from professional agents. TBF, if you have a questions, the selling insurance agents from reputable insurance companies will provide good information. Spend some time looking around the web for information. Forget social media, you are more likely to get misinformed. Another option is to find an independent travel insurance broker in your area. They're around and can help guide you through the process.

Correct. The Desanits ban and the line's choice to not challenge it created the issues attendant to the hybrid pax manifest. If it were not for that, vaccinations would be uniformly required for guests over 16/12. At present it is only sailings from FL ports that unvaccinated guests have to deal with imposed inconvenient mitigation measures. Whether these are justified or not from a purely health standpoint is debatable. That the microscope that the cruise lines are under making these measures justifiable is not. I'm completely empathetic with the conundrum families with unvaccinated kids or guests who chose not to get vaccinated face. For those who love the cruising life and after nearly 2y forced official government denial from it - some of it highly questionable as to its constitutionality - there has to be some aggravation with the RCL policies and chomping at the bit. Still, it does come down to choice ..... which it seems is what everyone I see posting here on this subject have. When I think about this from the perspective of the corporate view, you have to know that the legal teams looked at all the applicable law, the finance teams looked at the costs and the operations teams looked at the impact on the guest experience and landed on this approach. You can bet it was well thought out and planned.

Hmmmmm ...... not sure. Certainly the CSO expires 10/31/2021 but it's not the CSO that is directing this policy. It's RCL. To my knowledge there isn't any language or protocols in the CSO that direct guests to have travel insurance. I just did a quick review of the CDC's Technical Instructions and didn't see anything doing this. The best information from RCL is going to be we will continually monitor, yada, yada and update protocols as necessary. It's not much to go on but if you're sailing before October 31st and are traveling with unvaccinated pax, per RCL, you'll need travel insurance. It is a PITA. I think we are all finding that as we plan for and then embark on a cruise ship in this era, there are a lot of hoops to jump through and inconveniences like masking on board. I posted this in the Celebrity thread but will repost it here. It's a chart that lays out pre-boarding hoops, terminal and shipboard health requirements (including the wide array of vaccination, mask or no masks required protocols) in an easy to locate and learn what you need to know and do. (link below). https://www.celebritycruises.com/content/dam/celebrity/pdf/Celebrity-Healthy-At-Sea-Protocols-v2.pdf To sooth nerves of those having pending cruise plans, I'm sailing on Apex from Paireus (Athens) on July 9th. I am receiving regular updates that include everything an arriving, then boarding guest needs to have done in advance or will be subject to at the cruise terminal. I'm obsessive about not encountering surprises so, i''ve been checking and rechecking stuff daily (we fly out of Miami on Thursday July 8th, fortunately a couple of days after Elsa passes through!!!) Everything Celebrity sends me via email is a repeat of what I already know on my own but it gets reinforced and reaffirmed as official and is nicely presented in clear language and illustrations. The whole thing is too big to capture and paste but I did paste the first page to demonstrate how Celebrity (and I assume RCL) will present what you need to know and/or do before you go and during all phases of your travel/cruise. Following this header, each of the tabs in the header are fleshed out in detail.

I too had to read the language twice. My first read was the same as yours then I read it again and, although not as straight forward as one might like it, it says any EOs and all local COVID related restrictions will expire on July 1st. I read this to include the state's PHE under which all this stuff was issued. At that point the provisions of SB2006 - and these cover all manner of emergency preparedness of which a PHE is included - take effect. The body of SB2006 and the announcement of Desantis' signing of it make it very clear that its intent is to prohibit government overreach, the kind of which occurred during the SARS2 Pandemic, in the state of FL. The language in SB2006 also lays out the steps that are required for the Governor to declare a future PHE making it clear that balancing the costs of mitigation measures with the potential public health benefits is required. It also lays out who participates in deliberations and final decisions on these. Participants include both state public health officials, Commerce and Transportation Department officials. It is a model piece of legislation that the US legislature needs to look closely at in coming up with legislation that more clearly limits the authority of the CDC to shutter an entire industry as it did to the Cruise Lines. I think in light of the Merryday ruling, th US Congress cannot duck responsibility to do that. Pretty sure something is already in the mill and has sponsorship that includes FL's TX's and AK's congressional reps.

It does not matter what the the Desantis EO says. That is because Senate Bill SB2006, among other things, made it unlawful in the state of Florida for a business or school (I did not realize schools were included until I read the bill) to ask for proof of vaccination. The Bill was passed by both houses of the FL legislature, forwarded to the governor to sign and he signed it on May 3rd, 2021. Also in the bill was a provision that cancelled all previously issued emergency orders effective July 1st, 2021. Here's the wording for banning passports: 381.00316, F.S.; 141 prohibiting a business entity from requiring patrons 142 or customers to provide documentation certifying 143 vaccination against or recovery from COVID-19; 144 prohibiting governmental entities from requiring 145 persons to provide documentation certifying vaccination against or recovery from COVID-19; 147 prohibiting educational institutions from requiring 148 students or residents to provide documentation 149 certifying vaccination against or recovery from COVID150 19 A couple of references: the bill itself (42 pages) and an announcement of the signing of the bill and it's intent (a lot clearer than the bill itself). https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2021/2006/BillText/er/PDF https://www.flgov.com/2021/05/03/governor-ron-desantis-signs-landmark-legislation-to-ban-vaccine-passports-and-stem-government-overreach/

So what does this mean vis-a-vis the questions about ship's COVID protocols and how strict or how lenient they should be? Right now, not only in the cruise industry wrt to protocols for handling COVID cases that show up as you described them - the 65yo who has been vaccinated, and who is just emerging as detectably COVID positive, is asymptomatic but is spreading virus particles - but everywhere. We are at a tipping point. The higher the global vax rate, the more quickly this thing ends and the less time SARS2 has an opportunity to mutate, become more transmissible or more lethal. At the level we are discussing this - the risk of COVID becoming wide spread aboard ship - because of the current mutations and the risks attendant to these, I still support a more aggressive COVID protocol approach ..... for now. I have a subscription to the Economist. I just finished reading an incredibly interesting article that detailed exactly how mutations form and why the currently known mutations seem to grow in their capacity to be more transmissible. The article is pay-walled so I'll provide some takeaways: SARS2 has demonstrated some unique properties in the way viruses mutate. These include multiple substitutions and deletions in a specific protein - the "spike proteins" that bind to ACE2 cells in bats and humans. Bats have many more ACE2 cells and that makes them a perfect reservoir for viral evolution to occur. Humans have relatively less ACE2 cells than bats but humans are still a good reservoir for mutations and that includes asymptomatic people who have been vaxed but get re-infected like the guest you describe. Has that guest been exposed to and been infected by a SARS2 variant that has an R(0) up to 8X more transmissible than the original SARS2? I'd be overly cautious with this guest. The good news is that SARS2 may have run out of places on the spike proteins to evolve. The point is made that the behavior of all viruses become limited by this phenomena. While SARS2 has demonstrated its capacity to evolve into more transmissible and potentially more lethal forms, like all viruses, they run out of room to evolve and eventually recede. At some point, this will happen. Right now, as I said, we're at a tipping point. For now, be aggressive. In humans, the immune system also evolves when it encounters a new threat like SARS2. So, it's a battle that involves SARS2 becoming limited in it's ability to evolve and the human immune system continuing to get better at fighting it and surviving. In the end, humans win. That is a historical perspective that goes way back to when this sort of thing was first recorded and studied, the Bubonic Plague in the mid 1300s. Indeed, it takes a while for this to happen. We aren't there yet. Be aggressive.