Scrumps

Even in cases where the airline cancels and rebooks you on other flights, they rarely give a refund for non refundable tickets. At best, they will put the funds into a some thing like FCC. I kept telling them that the new flights were bad and none of the ones available were acceptable. In the mist of them being slammed, somehow they got cancelled and provided me with a link to request a refund. I had to enter a reason and I received the refund just a few days later.

12 hours ago, KJ1231 said:

I have $3K in airfare invested with American Airlines on 4 tickets

I feel that. We had $2,400 in non refundable airfare with AA for our June cruise out of Seattle. Then they cancelled the original flights a few weeks ago and put us on some crappy redeye where tickets were nearly 50% less. So I push and got a full refund for the non refundable tickets in the mist of all the confusion and free change/cancel period. I figure if the cruise does go ahead and we actually go, it should be easy to snap up some cheap tickets.

Right now I doubt we are going anywhere. The tickets I paid for are currently $1,300 less and I am just waiting for them to cancel so we can get a refund instead of FCC.

Travel insurance also sent something out allowing you to cancel the travel insurance for full refund. 

So I totally missed that Canada has closed all its ports to cruise ships larger than 500 people until 1st July.. and we know that the RC ships must dock at a foreign port. Also that there is a shortage of foreign ports in the area

My assumption is that RC will wait because things change and Canada could open up the ports earlier if things get better.. but I assume if not, then even if cruises start up, the Alaskan cruises will be cancelled.. ?

If they are expecting to be down for 3 months, I can see the logic and it confirms that they do not believe they will be cruising in April or even May. There is just no way you are getting a full crew back on board on 26 ships by the 1st of May. There is also the possibility that not all will come back and I would be surprised if they would be fully staffed. I think we will likely see a staggered approach when they start. 10 ships to begin with etc..

1 hour ago, SpeedNoodles said:

I do know that non-medical 911 calls are down in numbers, but after a week of being stuck at home I expect the domestic calls to soar.

I can understand that. I work from home often and have set myself up in the living room. My wife is now home for 14 days and yesterday she sat next to me and started watching Chicago Fire or some crap like that and I about lost it  

22 minutes ago, basil said:

Do you think with the 14 day quarantine, that RCL will cancel more cruises? 14 days puts a new spin on cruising.

I don't believe for a moment that any ships will be taking passengers in April..

Europe has been added to the list so anyone coming from there is required to self isolate for 14 days. My wife's company also imposed a 14 day quarantine for anyone coming back from anywhere outside the US.

I thought it said advisory, not ban

80% of international flights have been cancelled.. those non American staff are not coming back anytime in the next 30 days. With so many ports closed, there is no way cruises are boarding passengers in early April.  My thought is that they know nothing is moving before June since we are at least 2-3 weeks away from it getting really bad in the US. The original projections had cases doubling every 6-10 days. I think it is currently 3-4 days. That doubling of cases will hit massive numbers in mid to late April.

I think RCL stock will be in single digits come April and the first cruise will not be until at least June, maybe July.. and I think we will see only a small number of cruises starting, not all of them at once.

I am following the market all the way down. I saw the prices in 2009 but had no money available to buy anything and I hate that I lost out on such opportunity. This time I have cash on hand to buy.  My concern with RCL is what I asked in another post, that is, the possibility of bankruptcy.  That does not mean they 'go' bankrupt, but that they file chapter xx and ask courts to reorganize and protect from creditors. This is the important part.. most, if not all, common stock becomes worthless at that point.

RCL could come out the other side and become profitable, but your stock is gone.  I suspect several hard hit companies could go this route.  I know RCL just pulled 500 million in cash, but I find it hard to believe that anyone is cruising in April. Most ports are closed and this virus has not even really got started yet in the US. We are pretty much where Italy was 3 weeks ago.

I believe we will be lucky to see cruising restarted until at least May, and I would not be surprised if it's June. What would that do to RCL stock or the company?

My point is that although RCL stock looks attractive, there are many other companies out there at the moment with great low stock prices that are not in danger of the stock becoming worthless. This is just my thought process and wanted to ensure those who have not purchased stock before understand you might lose it all..  However, once it gets down to single digits, you are not losing much..

I think the best advise someone gave was do not buy stock until cruising restarts.

With a 30 day shutdown, I agree.. but this thing is only just starting. I'd be shocked if anyone is cruising before June.. and then the question is, how long before they get back up to capacity. I agree that we could see RCL down in the 20's soon.

I have been looking at RCL stock too.. but I have a couple of fears..   1) I think recovery is going to be very very long and I question if the cruise industry will ever return to the highs on recent times.. and 2) there is a chance that RCL goes into bankruptcy protection if this goes on for several months and I believe common stock becomes  worthless then..

Thoughts? 

Just a bit of advice on FCC. Don't have it applied when booking a new cruise. It becomes a PIA.  Instead of your invoice showing the original price and then the FCC remove, they apply the FCC at the beginning. It makes comparing prices later looking for a price drop a pain.. and if you do rebook due to a price drop, you have to remove the FCC, rebook and then re-apply the FCC..

My advice..  book normally and then apply the FCC as part of final payment.