twangster

It's only simple if the CDC agrees with that approach. Cruise lines don't get to make up the rules. They have to play by the rules the CDC is allowing.

I completely appreciate your perspective and understand your choice. If my kids were still kids I would be right there with you. Cruise lines are dealing with the cards that are being dealt to them. They want a royal flush but the best hand they have to play is a pair of deuces. Staring at that pair of twos and wishing they were other cards isn't going to change the cards in their hand. So they are going back to the dealer, in this case the CDC, and making sure they understand all the rules in the game to see if there is anyway to make it work. The outcome is not inevitable. We need to wait until the CDC clarifies the rules of the game.

I don't need a mask yet I'm required to wear one to enter a store right now. Not because I am a risk. Not because I am at risk. Because unvaccinated folks are a risk. Their actions are causing requirements to be imposed on the rest of us just as they will be with cruising. There will be no need for me to wear a mask on a ship but if unvaccinated are allowed to sail I'll be required to wear one.

If we are all forced to wear masks because some choose not to vaccinate or a cruise is forced to end early and every one must quarantine in their cabin because one unvaccinated became infected.

They are all doing it. MSC Yacht Club, Celebrity Retreat, NCL Haven and now Wonder's eighth neighborhood. Beyond's Retreat is two level, growing bigger. The olden days are coming back. You have your first class passengers and steerage. The two never mingle, except in the movies.

Bayley commented on the vaccine culture of the crew. Royal has long offered but not mandated flu vaccines. Crew adoption of flu vaccines is historically mid-90% he stated. They recently surveyed crew about their thoughts on COVID vaccines. Bayley has suggested the responses follow flu vaccine acceptance trends which he attributed to the long time flu vaccine culture that crew have demonstrated. Basically this is a crowd that tends to accept vaccines. Now that vaccines are available on a walk up basis securing them for crew will be a matter of which one do you want?

Richard is pulling a lot of those strings too, this isn't just Lisa, I suspect it's his master plan, she is just the executioner. There are a lot of people willing and able to spend money to be bourgeoise. They are simply being the outlet for this demographic. This demographic doesn't want true luxury as in SS, that's too old and stuffy. I suspect Beyond may be very successful even if they lose some long time X base.

Including drinks and wifi does not equate to luxury. We'll see if Beyond changes the equation but true luxury requires better crew:guest ratios. I've long said you can't scale luxury into mass market but maybe X can prove me wrong. A smart exec at one of those lines would introduce a status match program.

I do see why they got rid of Azamara more clearly now. They needed to create space for Celebrity to move it's pricing model into. With Azamara in the fold it was too compressed and hard to differentiate. Now X has its own little place between RCI and SS to sail free within.

That's likely a worse case scenario for the cruise lines. It puts them in a position of operating with no vaccine requirement which will lead to a case of COVID-19 at some point, or the illusion of a case and the media goes hysteric. Even thought that alleged case will likely be mild and most likely not involve death, that doesn't matter. The fact that the case can't actually be traced to the cruise won't matter. The CDC imposed vaccination requirement gives them a cleaner and safer (from media hysterics) path forward.

One possible outcome is to follow the NCL model. 100% vaccines, no kids if not vaccinated by then, through the extent of the CSO, currently until Nov. 1. The CDC gives them a place to point the finger when guests object. I do believe more kids will become eligible for a vaccine at some point. Until then, the CDC made us do it.

I have a 2023 booking on the Silver Dawn, also their newest ship that hasn't carried guests yet. 7 nights Caribbean $5,690 including airfare and excursions in a mid-level suite (not the lowest one available). For that money I get Concierge Class on Beyond, same week in the Caribbean, but no airfare or excursions. True luxury or faux luxury? Hmmm. Plus the itinerary on the Dawn is much more appealing.

I'm just surprised to see them approach SilverSea rates on select sailings. Granted that isn't all ships, all sailings, but Beyond moves Celebrity closer to SS compared to the gap with RCI.

That's me! Last week I had the same on four different cruises. This latest price drop puts $100+ in my pocket over a two week period. And that's before any cruise planner price drops. It's only one hundred dollars, but with a few more like this it'll pay for a DX on a short cruise.

From an investor's perspective (since this was an investor call) it should have negligible impact on company financials. There will be some that take the comments out of context but it's important to remember the question and answers were with large investment firms seeking to understand how to advise investors about the potential of the company's financial performance.

https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2021/04/29/royal-caribbean-talks-about-cdc-letter-and-what-it-means-kids Both he and Mr. Fain cautioned the letter is new, and there are follow up questions to determine, but Bayley felt kids are not out of the question, "We really do have to sit, study and and discuss with the CDC and understand all of these these different nuances." Mr. Bayley believes the age restriction for kids, which now stands at 16, will be lowered shortly, "We've been told that in the coming weeks and months that that age limit will likely drop to 12. And and we're encouraged by that."

Bayley suggested there are two pathways to a restart. One when vaccination requirements are met. One when vaccination requirements are not met. It's not that simple and they have questions submitted to the CDC for clarification but on first glimpse and highly simplified that's the gist of it.

In my case I am comparing it to a 2023 Star Class booking. I looked at that pricing again today. I can sail in a Star Class suite in 2023 for 80% of a balcony on Beyond on a similar sailing in the same region. So apparently the high demand, low supply is only a Celebrity thing.

Fain confirms a letter was received last night, still reviewing.

The spin will be... "We are a family cruise line and we want you to sail with your children, but the CDC won't allow us to"

What’s orange and sounds like a parrot? A Carrot

I'm cautiously optimistic this might come to be something big but we've been lied to and misled by the CDC so many times it's hard to commit any level of believing this might be an actual restart. They've lost all credibility in my eyes, so... Waiting to learn more before I jump on the bandwagon.

And Canada. And India. And ....

Earnings call today. This has got to come up.

https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2021/04/29/report-cdc-says-cruise-ships-could-restart-mid-july-95-vaccinated-passengers