Will a 12 night cruise sail April 2021

[Atsea824]

I see as of now cruises of more than 7 nights are on hold at this time. Do you think they will cancel them for 2021?

[Matt]

Not sure. They could simply shorten them to 7-nights.

[Atsea824]

I was thinking the same thing Matt. 

[JeffB]

Questions like this have been addressed many times in different threads but it is still relevant because about every 72 hours, things change! Right now, it appears that when cruising does restart from US ports, itineraries will be in the range of 3-7 days.  Porting will be limited and if it does occur, it will be at private island facilities for a while to come.

If you're keeping up, you'll have seen the Safe to Sail Plan that RCG, among other lines and organizations (e.g., CLIA), collaboratively developed. These were in response to CDC concerns about congregate settings common on cruise ships and the attendant risk of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within them. In turn, the CDC then lifted the cruise ship ban on sailing from US ports on October 30th and released a 70 some page document stipulating what cruise ships had to do to resume sailing from US ports. Well, nobody is cruising yet from the US and even cruising in Asia and Europe has been only on a limited basis. There are some lines that have already cancelled or stopped booking cruises in March, 2021 and even beyond that.

The cruise line's ability to meet all the gating criteria contained in the most recent CDC guidelines will determine when cruising can resume. Even if they do that, there's wiggle room for the CDC to say, nope not yet, based on such things as disease prevalence, for example, in FL ..... or Galveston, New Orleans, where ever cruise ships operate from. So, restarting sailings out of US ports is going to be hard as long as there is a level of community spread of the virus that is currently being experienced.

I've already offered that I don't think that in the early months of vaccine distribution that we're going to see a decline in disease prevalence. In hospitalizations and deaths? Yes. So, if disease prevalence remains high in FL, for example, even though RCCL and Celebrity may have implemented protocols that will meet the CDC's requirements for mitigation measures and gating criteria, the company itself or the CDC may not allow a restart.

Having said that and to answer your question, I think the survival of the cruise ship industry, including RCCL, depends on being able to re-start revenue deriving cruises by the end of the first quarter of 2021 - that would be March. I do believe that federal level decision makers are aware of the economic costs to the cruise industry of continuing to prohibit operations. There is plenty of evidence that shuttering businesses does not produce the public health benefits wrt the pandemic that are greater than the economic and social costs produced by them. There is some recognition of this starting to surface everywhere on the planet that is dealing with the pandemic. As well there is strong resistance to unregulated re-opening. There's a definite tension between these two pathways with trends toward fewer lock-downs or shuttering of businesses. There are exceptions, of course, and there are governors and local officials who have the authority to do so to order both varying forms of lock-downs and business closings. 

I think cruising can be done safely with layered mitigation measures. To demand zero risk of viral spread aboard a cruise ship is unrealistic. The industry has to convince regulating entities in the US that it can reduce the risk of spreading the virus and if there is an infection aboard ship it can be addressed and dealt with without endangering other passengers or crew or placing undue burden on local port facilities when they are asked to assist in the handling of infected persons.

The blueprint is in place to do that. There is evidence from Asia and Europe that similar blueprints work. The hardest part, the biggest barrier to a restart from US ports right now, and seemingly in Europe and Asia, is viral prevalence. I think regulators and local officials involved in decision making are going to want viral prevalence  - percent positivity of administered testing within counties hosting cruise ports - to be at or below 5% maybe a little higher. Broward county, the FL county that contains Port Everglades, for example, has been hovering between 6% and 10% over the last month.  In addition, cruise ships will have to demonstrate that they can create as much of a bubble as possible before deciders will green light sailings out of any particular US port. That should come once the planned practice cruises start taking place.

Does that shed some light on your question? I'm with Matt, "we just don't know yet." Stay tuned.

[twangster]

For a 12 night April 2021 cruise I'd start preparing mentally for it to be cancelled.  

[Hagar]

As a travel agent I want this question answered as a top priority.  B2B cruising piggbacks on this same issue and I was just speaking with regional manager from Royal about this yesterday. I think they get the mounting frustration but the CDC owns the shoe that contains the cards we are dealt. I don't think the CDC is going to respond very soon since the sailing cancellation period extended until the end of February. Naturally this has delayed the test sailings from US ports but I do think Royal could be more flexible on final payment due dates on cruises they know may be a "no-go." 

 

Just throwin' my 2 pennies "out there,"

Hagar the Horrible

[princevaliantus]

2 hours ago, JeffB said:

Questions like this have been addressed many times in different threads but it is still relevant because about every 72 hours, things change! Right now, it appears that when cruising does restart from US ports, itineraries will be in the range of 3-7 days.  Porting will be limited and if it does occur, it will be at private island facilities for a while to come.

If you're keeping up, you'll have seen the Safe to Sail Plan that RCG, among other lines and organizations (e.g., CLIA), collaboratively developed. These were in response to CDC concerns about congregate settings common on cruise ships and the attendant risk of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within them. In turn, the CDC then lifted the cruise ship ban on sailing from US ports on October 30th and released a 70 some page document stipulating what cruise ships had to do to resume sailing from US ports. Well, nobody is cruising yet from the US and even cruising in Asia and Europe has been only on a limited basis. There are some lines that have already cancelled or stopped booking cruises in March, 2021 and even beyond that.

The cruise line's ability to meet all the gating criteria contained in the most recent CDC guidelines will determine when cruising can resume. Even if they do that, there's wiggle room for the CDC to say, nope not yet, based on such things as disease prevalence, for example, in FL ..... or Galveston, New Orleans, where ever cruise ships operate from. So, restarting sailings out of US ports is going to be hard as long as there is a level of community spread of the virus that is currently being experienced.

I've already offered that I don't think that in the early months of vaccine distribution that we're going to see a decline in disease prevalence. In hospitalizations and deaths? Yes. So, if disease prevalence remains high in FL, for example, even though RCCL and Celebrity may have implemented protocols that will meet the CDC's requirements for mitigation measures and gating criteria, the company itself or the CDC may not allow a restart.

Having said that and to answer your question, I think the survival of the cruise ship industry, including RCCL, depends on being able to re-start revenue deriving cruises by the end of the first quarter of 2021 - that would be March. I do believe that federal level decision makers are aware of the economic costs to the cruise industry of continuing to prohibit operations. There is plenty of evidence that shuttering businesses does not produce the public health benefits wrt the pandemic that are greater than the economic and social costs produced by them. There is some recognition of this starting to surface everywhere on the planet that is dealing with the pandemic. As well there is strong resistance to unregulated re-opening. There's a definite tension between these two pathways with trends toward fewer lock-downs or shuttering of businesses. There are exceptions, of course, and there are governors and local officials who have the authority to do so to order both varying forms of lock-downs and business closings. 

I think cruising can be done safely with layered mitigation measures. To demand zero risk of viral spread aboard a cruise ship is unrealistic. The industry has to convince regulating entities in the US that it can reduce the risk of spreading the virus and if there is an infection aboard ship it can be addressed and dealt with without endangering other passengers or crew or placing undue burden on local port facilities when they are asked to assist in the handling of infected persons.

The blueprint is in place to do that. There is evidence from Asia and Europe that similar blueprints work. The hardest part, the biggest barrier to a restart from US ports right now, and seemingly in Europe and Asia, is viral prevalence. I think regulators and local officials involved in decision making are going to want viral prevalence  - percent positivity of administered testing within counties hosting cruise ports - to be at or below 5% maybe a little higher. Broward county, the FL county that contains Port Everglades, for example, has been hovering between 6% and 10% over the last month.  In addition, cruise ships will have to demonstrate that they can create as much of a bubble as possible before deciders will green light sailings out of any particular US port. That should come once the planned practice cruises start taking place.

Does that shed some light on your question? I'm with Matt, "we just don't know yet." Stay tuned.

Wouldn't have it been easier just to say 'I'm with Matt, "we just don't know yet." Stay tuned.'