UNCFanatik

23 minutes ago, Phoenix said:

Odyssey will be testing end of June.

When was this announced? I must have missed it. When are test cruises?

And there goes Royal's website!

10 minutes ago, ConstantCruiser said:

New Odyssey sailings announced to travel agents.

Starts July 3, 8 nights.

Sat 03Jul2021    Fort Lauderdale, Florida    -    05:00 PM    Boarding
Sun 04Jul2021    Cruising    -    -    Cruising
Mon 05Jul2021    Cruising    -    -    Cruising
Tue 06Jul2021    Oranjestad, Aruba    09:00 AM    11:00 PM    Docked
Wed 07Jul2021    Willemstad, Curacao    07:00 AM    05:00 PM    Docked
Thu 08Jul2021    Cruising    -    -    Cruising
Fri 09Jul2021    Cruising    -    -    Cruising
Sat 10Jul2021    Perfect Day At Cococay, Bahamas    09:00 AM    06:00 PM    Docked
Sun 11Jul2021    Fort Lauderdale, Florida    06:15 AM    -    Departure

She will doing an 8/6 rotation.

Cruisers are just starting to become partially visible to travel agents.

How? Are they going the vaccinated route? 

Havent seen test cruises announced

15 minutes ago, NickNafster79 said:

 

see the latest announcement hot off the press from Royal President

13 minutes ago, NickNafster79 said:

Let's say Option 1 happens (which I highly doubt, but am holding onto any shred of hope I can at this point).

Do you think there would be a chance that cruises that were in limbo (i.e. not canceled yet) due to recently announced testing cruise dates might be back on again?

Still a matter of timing. At some point, Royal going to have to make a decision on its July sailings. 

We know that the next hearing will be on June 10th now. How long will it take the Judge to rule? June 10th is a Thursday, so unless he just dismisses the case on the spot, will the hearing be just one day? Will it be two days? If so, it heads into the weekend. So then we get into week on June 14th for Judge to deliberate. Will Royal really wait that long to announce the fate of July sailings and continue to have people in Limbo. Which each passing day, people become more upset with Royals lack of communication.

Then there is the issue on % of passengers required to be vaccinated. Will Royal even be able to meet those on a given sailing with the amount of children under 12 plue the 12-16 year olds that parents may not want to have vaccinated. 

as they say, anything is possible but probable is another story.

8 minutes ago, JeffB said:

It's important to remember that mediation reached an "impasse." The two sides couldn't agree on a settlement. To me, that signals FL is going for an all or nothing ruling. It also implies that FL's attorneys feel that HHS/CDC exceeded it's statutory authority with the NSO and subsequently with the CSO.

My take is that in a PHE, HHS/CSO probably acted within the provisions of U.S.C 42, section 264 that deals with the VSP. But that is definitely debatable. The law is complex and there is overlapping federal and state regulatory authority. Merryday will rule on this. It's hard for me to imagine he'll deal with the CSO in parts. I think the state of FL already knows he won't and are very confident in their position - all or nothing.

HHS/CDC lawyers haven't helped themselves with their recent motion that FL has called absurd. I think Merryday will agree with FL's position (because it's an end run and entirely absurd, IMO) but it's up in the air how he will rule. Good stuff. 

It will interesting to watch because Judge Merryday has a  chance to strike down the CSO the first go round put punted and sent to mediation. What is the chance he will strike it down now? I mean did anyone really think mediation would have been successful? And last time, how many days did it take him to decide to send to mediation? 

Do we expect a quicker ruling from the June 10th hearing? 

8 minutes ago, WesKinetic said:

So just thinking ahead to best/worst case scenarios (and I mean that purely in a "fastest vs. slowest" sense, not a value judgment of what I personally want to see happen), here's what I've come up with, but I'm sure I'm missing something. 

Fastest:
1. Court sides with FL, rules the CSO invalid.
2. Either cruise lines opt not to require vaccines or some kind of compromise is reached on Florida's vaccine requirement.
3. At that point, cruising (at least out of Florida) could theoretically start as soon as the cruise lines are ready to go.

Slowest:
1. Court sides with CDC, CSO remains in place. 
2. CDC slowly approves test cruises. 
3. Cruise lines say they still plan to require vaccines for those eligible.
4. Florida digs its heels in and files suit to prohibit vaccine requirement.
5. Cruises are put on hold until a court ruling on Florida's case. 
6. Whichever way the court rules, things remain on hold pending appeal. 
7. Supreme Court ultimately rules in Florida's favor.
8. Cruise lines have to come up with new on-board protocols before they are finally ready to resume cruising.
 

Love him or hate him, DeSantis deserves credit for finally getting CDC off of high center. But his rhetoric on the vaccine law has kind of painted Florida into a corner. It was Florida's suit that finally moved CDC to (slowly) start taking action, and they're to be commended for that. But, ironically, they could win their suit against the CDC but then have a court fight over their vaccine law grind the process to a halt. I hope it doesn't come to that and that cooler heads will prevail. But I'm not optimistic about that anytime politics gets involved. 

Not to mention what effect the ruling will ultimately have on Alaskan cruises with the assertion from the government that Alaskan cruises were given exception to sail without porting in another country was based on the conditions of the CSO. 

If FL lawsuit results in CSO being struck down does that cause chaos with Alaskan cruises?

8 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Based on the Carnival president's comments about working with the CDC to get the vaccination percentage rule tweaked (my interpretation), I wonder if the CDC does that which then allows flexibility in how the cruise lines seek majority vaccinated cruises without "requiring" a vaccination, and this all goes away then.

Yes, I agree because it will be interesting to see how Carnival handles their early July sailings because i dont see a schedule for their simulated sailings. 

Still too much uncertainty in the air to have confidence that there will actually be any early July revenue cruises. Less than 30 days now and a lot has to happen 

As I mentioned in another thread, the June 10th date gives Royal more reason to delay any announcement of July cruises because some Royal Exec is holding onto the hope that the CSO will be struck down

24 minutes ago, 0_0 said:

Hearing scheduled for 6/10/2021 10:00AM. Looks like we're not going to get any ruling until ANOTHER hearing is held. 

https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/59804600/state-of-florida-v-becerra/

Great June 10th. Just gives Royal another reason to hold up any announcements for July/August sailings because some Royal Exec thinks the CSO may be struck down 

9 minutes ago, NickNafster79 said:

Once again, my foolish optimism has me hoping for something that isn't likely, but thought I'd throw it out here first.

My cruise on the Allure is July 18. From what folks have said, RC would be doing test cruises regardless of the Florida vaccine passport ban because they want kids/families to be able to board their ships.

There also has been talk (based on local reports and Forbes) that work is going on behind the scenes to let the 95/98 vaccine passport threshold happen for cruises while allowing DeSantis to save face politically by saying there's nothing he could do stop federal regulation of ships that sail in international waters. 

With the Allure doing a test cruise on July 27, is there a snowball's chance in hell that my July 17 cruise could still happen with the 95/98 vaccine requirement beforehand?

Overall, I would say there is no chance

But if we are speaking theoretically, lets say that they wanted to sail with the vaccine requirement. Like you mentioned, they would need to get past the DeSantis hurdle with the Law.

THEN, what is the makeup of your July 17th cruise, is 95% even attainable with the amount of kids under 12 on board AND the amount of 12-16 year olds where parents do not want to vaccinate their children. 

SO, what would need to happen? Cancel that cruise and rebook only vaccinated people? Cancel the families with children under 12? No easy answers there

Let me drag out my dead horse here and again say, THIS is why Royal needs to announce plans with July/ /august cruises TODAY cause people still believe their July cruises will sail because of no official cancellation announcement yet 

10 minutes ago, wordell1 said:

I used to respect the CDC.  I don't think the CDC has been following the science for a long time.

Too much politics with the CDC these days. You know if the cruise lines were based in the US and had a powerful union they could have written their own rules with CDC like teachers unions did… lol

9 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

CDC is ignoring science with the 95% rule. It should be a 75% rule

Agreed. No other business is this required. A Vegas casino/hotel is closest in comparison to cruise ship in my mind and they are just wide open!

10 minutes ago, Matt said:

Regarding the tone deaf comments....

I don't think anything Bayley did is a problem. In fact, I think it's a public service because we'd know nothing about test cruises without it.

 

Point well taken. And you are right about knowing about the test cruising but I think he could have done both announcing test cruises and expressing regret for the cruises that will have to be cancelled. The way he did it, makes some people still think their July cruise is sailing

12 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

 

Wait, I wouldnt take this as Gospel yet because they are just basing this info on Royal's website and what can be booked. That doesnt necessarily mean that the July 24th sailing will sail prior to test cruise

10 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

 

Interesting. How are they leaving the July 24th sailing which is before test cruise?

13 minutes ago, Traveler said:

I think RCL will cancel only when they have the new sailing dates so people can switch quickly.

That will be August. There is only a 2 week window for most families in August before school and by that time people will have already taken alternate vacations. They should not wait to do this.

AND there will be several people that want refunds not FCC. Cant assume everyone will want to rebook

30 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

PR is a fickle thing.

 

The good PR from announcing test cruises, even if it has a negative impact on some booked passengers is a better approach than the larger negative PR from cancelling more cruises up front.

But they have to announce more cancellations anyway. Just a matter of time now. We all know it

10 minutes ago, NickNafster79 said:

I know this is a long shot, but is there any chance that the test cruise announcement will end up being nullified by the upcoming agreement between Florida and the cruise industry to allow vaccine passports?

The CDC guidelines state the cruises with the 98/95 ratio do not need to do test cruises--maybe I'm absurdly hopeful/optimistic, but I really don't want my honeymoon cruise on Allure next month to be canceled

The challenge with summer sailings to Caribbean is that its prime family season and those vaccinated thresholds may not be able to be met on those sailings that are already booked with the amount of children 12 and under plus the hesitancy of parents who may not want to have their 12-16 year olds vaccinated. I think that is why Royal chose the test sailings route

I will say this. They need to fire whoever is in charge of Marketing/PR.

Michael's Bayley FB post was tone deaf. Yippee!!! is how he starts? Does he not realize how that will be received by customers on July/August sailings that for the first time they realize that their sailings will be cancelled?? Not every cruiser keeps up with cruise news and boards like this. They trust Royal and what they are told. Bayley's FB message was totally tone deaf and put TAs in a terrible position today not to mention those poor customer service reps that man the phones who are now being instructed to outright lie to paying customers. This is a PR nightmare. It would have been better to announce cancellations FIRST and then announce test cruises. I get it, Bayley is rightfully excited about test sailings but did he even run this by his fellow execs and Marketing/PR departments before he announced on FB? If so, did no other exec stop and give him some pause as how this would be received by passengers on July/August sailings? 

This is truly an unforced error by Royal in customer relations and PR

13 minutes ago, Jill said:

Sorry @UNCFanatik See if you can move it to October/November. 
 

I’m hopeful my late October symphony will now sail. Hopefully the CDC won’t drag its feet approving revenue cruises. I guess Freedom will be our first clue how fast they approve. 

Thank you!

November 21 sailing on Oasis was always backup plan. 

I would think your October sailing would be good. Hopefully when cruising restarts across multiple ships, October will be good!

18 hours ago, OutToSea said:

June 10th is my day

10 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

There it is. Symphony of the Seas cancelled for July sailings

15 minutes ago, JeffB said:

It's not just the FL lawsuit. It is a host of pressures from various quarters on the HHS/CDC. What is frustrating to me is that given the CSO's absurdity that these "smart" people with in the CDC haven't figured out a graceful way to back out of it. While the whole issue of the HHS's/CDC's approach to the pandemic has been questioned, it's absurd approach to the cruise industry and the risk of outbreaks on cruise ships is so obviously flawed, it stuns me that congressional inquiry and action isn't ongoing.

When I think about it, nothing new, actually. On multiple issues not related to cruising legislative action from the federal level gets mired in politics and other priorities. It's easier for politicians to punt to the courts and hope a federal judge sorts this out. In case you haven't noticed for over a decade, this has been the modus operandi of our elected officials. It's not a good thing.

I fully agree. The CSO should have been dropped in May at the latest as vaccinations were on the rise. 

It will be interesting to see if the PHE which was renewed in April will be renewed again in July. Excuse my ignorance, but if the PHE is lifted will that mean the CSO by default will be lifted or two separate matters?

10 minutes ago, steverk said:

Regardless of how the lawsuit plays out, I'm convinced that much of the progress that has been made with the CDC is a direct result of the CDC trying to stay ahead of the lawsuit so they can claim it is unnecessary.  In other words, the lawsuit is already having the desired effect of getting cruising started. 

If the lawsuit hadn't happened, I don't think the CDC would have budged and we'd still be looking at November for the earliest possible start date.

Valid point. Something had to happen to spur the CDC to make the changes that they have