UNCFanatik

In 2009-2010, there was 60 million reported cases of H1N1 in the US. About 27k deaths attributed to H1N1.

Imagine, if we tested for H1N1 in 2009-2010 like we do for Covid today. How many cases and deaths would have been attributed to H1N1?

There is no way to stop Covid from being on cruise ships, vaccinated passengers or not. Just like everywhere else. Zero Covid should not be the goal. 

There is still debate about asymptomatic spread. If someone had the vaccine and a breakthrough case happens with no symptoms, does that person even have enough viral load to spread it to others? 

Covid is on its way to being endemic and our society needs to come to terms with that. Stop testing vaccinated people with no symptoms. 

19 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Were they given a second test to rule out false positives?

 

The odds of false positives when testing that many people at once is quite high.

I agree. Said they were asymptomatic as well. 

I will not debate this issue anymore on here but I would like to see antibody test results being accepted because that would serve the same purpose of requiring passengers to be vaccinated. 

It will be interesting to see how this plays out and how well the CDC can accurately enforce these vaccinated thresholds. 

I remember flying to Rochester NY in February this year and the State of NY requiring airline passengers to fill out health declarations that we were instructed to just place them in a box at a table in the airline terminal. No verifying identifies or anything. And you cant tell me that some government employee was pouring through 1000s of forms and entering info it some contact tracing system

I think a level of the enforcement by the CDC will be a matter of theater. 

13 minutes ago, JeffB said:

Good questions. I'll try by offfering my two cents:

1. When someone books with Celebrity on a 95% vaccinated sailing, are they asked about their vaccination status?

No, not as I understand it. I think that kind of approach runs afoul of the FL law which RCG (all brands sailing from FL ports) seems to want to comply with - or at least avoid a confrontation with Desantis (the not a hill I want to defend approach). I remain 99% certain the law would fail a court challnge but as I've also opined, why challenge it in a costly and time consuming court battle. Maybe Delrio wants to do that - fine - let him. RCG? Nope.

2. Will there be a CDC or health official  in the terminal on embarkation day verifying that the sailing is indeed 95% vaccinated? 

Probably not but I suspect there will be federal PH officials there to observe operations as the CSO allows for. There will also be CDC health officials on board during the sailing to inspect records the CSO requires. Among those are going to be a record of passengers who did not volunteer their vaccination status. Total Pax, minus that number, divided by 100 determines if Celebrity achieved what they said they would ..... if not it won't end the cruise but the CSC could be revoked preventing future revenue sailings on Edge out of PEV.

3. If so, what is the criteria to authorize a sailing to commence to verify 95% of passengers are vaccinated? 

No red-light, green light at the terminal. See above.

4. How will CDC/health officials verify at the terminal if the cruise passengers are truly vaccinated? Do they take the word of Celebrity? Will they require guest to show vaccination record at the terminal when checking in? Without verifying vaccination status of guest, can the CDC actually confirm that Celebrity is meeting the vaccine threshold? 

Not at the terminal but aboard ship and during the sailing verification. I don't think the CDC (or FL State Troopers!) will be there to play bad guys. See above.

5. what happens if the sailing is 90-94% vaccinated for instance, game over? 

After the fact. See below.

In summary, regardless of what Celebrity does, how does the CDC enforce and verify the condition of the CSO is being met? How does the CDC enforce this in the terminal prior to sailing without running afoul of FL vaccine passport law? 

Determining the actual count of unvaccinated pax aboard isn't difficult given records that the ship is going to have and are available for inspection by CDC officials sailing with Edge. It is clearly in Celebrity's interests to accurately know whether or not the ship reached the 98/95% threshold. That is because their application for and approval of Edge's CSC is dependent on proving that they reached that threshold. Since any CDC enforcement action would likely be after the fact, terminal enforcement isn't necessary. After the fact enforcement would be in the form of revocation of Edge's CSO and a need for Celebrity to reapply for one potentially under a test cruise pathway.  

Thanks for the response!

Interesting that there will be no CDC enforcement of vaccine thresholds prior to sailing only post cruise penalties

Yes, I agree its in Celebrity's best interest to comply fully with the vaccine conditions that the CDC has granted them. 

I have many thoughts about the comment section on Matt’s blog post but I will keep them to myself…lol

But this has raised a few questions for me that may have been answered before:

1. When someone books with Celebrity on a 95% vaccinated sailing, are they asked about their vaccination status?

2. Will there be a CDC or health official  in the terminal on embarkation day verifying that the sailing is indeed 95% vaccinated? 
 

3. If so, what is the criteria to authorize a sailing to commence to verify 95% of passengers are vaccinated? 
 

4. How will CDC/health officials verify at the terminal if the cruise passengers are truly vaccinated? Do they take the word of Celebrity? Will they require guest to show vaccination record at the terminal when checking in? Without verifying vaccination status of guest, can the CDC actually confirm that Celebrity is meeting the vaccine threshold? 
 

5. what happens if the sailing is 90-94% vaccinated for instance, game over? 
 

In summary, regardless of what Celebrity does, how does the CDC enforce and verify the condition of the CSO is being met? How does the CDC enforce this in the terminal prior to sailing without running afoul of FL vaccine passport law? 
 

The Oasis sailing on Nov 21,2021 is no longer on sale on Royal’s website. 
 

what could that mean?

Even without FL law, they know that they might not be able to meet CDC 98% crew & 95% passenger threshold instead of test cruise option 

and if Royal set their own vaccine threshold of 95% passenger, could that even be possible with summer sailings with amount of children under 12 and 12-16 year old whose parents don’t want to vaccinate children. It would be a challenge even without FL law. They know the amount of children on board.  What would Royal do, cancel those without vaccinations? Rebook cruises in a short turnaround in an all ready shortened summer season? 
 

And when guest were surveyed, that survey is only good as who was sampled and who replied. But even at 80% guests saying the prefer vaccinated cruises that still leaves 20% unvaccinated if those numbers play out in a real cruise but we know they won’t 

I did find it interesting he didn’t mention the start of Odyssey on July 3rd

13 minutes ago, livin-the-life said:

we are so excited now! feels like we hit the jackpot! we were scheduled on 3 back to backs on the independence weeks of july 11th(6), july 17th(8), and july 25th(6 day) and we recieved an email stating we will atomatically be booked on the Odyssey of the seas! on the same dates too!  we are happy to be on the 2,3, and the 4th cruises on this wonderful new ship. looking forward to going back to aruba and curacao, along with everything else. after having 14 cruises cancelled since march 2020, we are more than ready.. love the fact we had lift and shifted into independence from other great cruise deals we already had. after looking at current pricing, im so glad we are price guarenteed into this expensive ship!! 10 more scheduled between dec21 and april22!!  

Thats awesome! But now I hate you as I had a July Symphony cruise that was cancelled but not moved to the Odyssey. I kid, I kid. 

In all seriousness, I will give credit where credit is due, this was a VERY smart move by Royal to move sailings from a ship with cancelled sailing to the Odyssey. 

20 minutes ago, JeffB said:

I write cautiously on this information because vaccination is a touchy subject here and we've been cautioned but this news is important because it is already getting sensationalized by the MSM after percolating for a week or so, mostly unnoticed. It is talk of a "surge" in new cases in the UK secondary to the Delta strain from India (new naming convention for SARS 2 variants). Here are the takeaways from the news and the scientific data I've looked at:

• New cases are rising in the UK and the increase is attributable to the Delta strain. The increase is tiny.
• Hospitalizations and deaths continue to decline in the UK and there has been no change in the trajectory of either.
• There is the possibility that vulnerability to Delta is increased by the path the UK chose to delay 2nd shots to insure more people got at least one thus, reducing immune response to variants. This circumstance may not apply to countries that stuck to a two dose regimen for most shots. At this point this is purely speculative.
• The number of new cases in a region or cohort by age, et.al, up until a few weeks ago, was considered a reliable metric to assess viral spread. It's no longer believed to be a good metric to do that or measure control of the virus or lack of it. What remains a good measure is that old R(0) because it measures trajectory and is more sensitive gauging spread/control, increases/decreases in prevalence. R(0) in regions of the UK being watched remains below 1.0. The press isn't reporting this metric.
• The debate among research scientists and epidemiologists involves issues of prevalence, that is, will SARS2 prevalence sustained by variants remain in the long run but be entirely manageable with respect to disease burden on both individuals and health care systems. Data is not yet sufficient to draw any conclusions either way. Anecdotally, this seems to be the case over the few months that vaccines have been available.  
• This debate is the kind of reasoned approach to decisions on introducing mitigation measures that involve restrictions on human behavior - shutterings, and such. IOW, if the disease burden remains manageable, if R(0) doesn't rise significantly above 1.0  or shows a pattern of small increases and decreases, there is no sense in imposing draconian mitigation measures such as heavy handed restrictions on movement and contact.

 What might be the impact on global and north American cruising should PH officials take mitigation steps toward restricting movement and contact? Cruising in Europe ( a bit less so in Asia and South America) becomes increasingly baked in - i.e., governments are becoming less likely to restrict travel and leisure activities - as time passes and vaccine roll-outs improve.

There is a direct relationship between the rate of vaccinations in a region and governments easing/not re-implementing restrictions.  More restrictions in the face of rising yet manageable case numbers does not seem to be the typical government reaction to this when outbreaks occur. The public, in general, voices loud opposition to increased restrictions these days.  The chance of shutdowns of ports becomes an unpalatable alternative ....... but, cruise ships remain in the crosshairs of the hyper-cautious, uninformed public. Government officials take in what PH scientists tell them and add that to political calculations. So, there's still a risk of a shut down of cruising. The risk will rise or fall over time depending on how the lines do on start-up.

Bottom line: insure your cruise bookings and/or take advantage of cruise line air and programs that will refund in some form the cost of a cancelled cruise.   

  

 

I read a story in The Morning from New York Times and in this snippet, it summarizes how we should view cases of Covid to keep in proper perspective and context moving forward:

"Three, caseloads are no longer as important a measure as they used to be. Before the vaccines were available, more cases inevitably meant more hospitalizations and deaths. Now, the connection is more uncertain. As a recent Times story put it, paraphrasing British scientists, “upticks in new infections are tolerable so long as the vast majority do not lead to serious illness or death.”

And keep in mind, we keep hearing about variants and they have yet to live up to their breathless panic porn advertising. 

But I agree with Jeff's advice above

15 minutes ago, Matt said:

Let's say you had a July cruise, and then let's say Royal did kind of what you wanted and cancelled July a month or two ago.

Now, let's fast forward to this past week. Royal announces July cruises and the ship you had booked is back on the table!

However, the rate and room you had are gone, because it was cancelled. So you could re-book, but maybe it would be a different price? Or not the exact room you had before?

You've solved one problem but a new one comes out, and in my experience, this would annoy a lot of people as well.

---

To be clear, I'm not saying you're right or wrong about what they should have done. Just pointing out the other side of the decision.

I understand the complexity and fluidity of the situation but I do not believe that Royal should have waited less than 30 days from the earliest July sailing to announce. 
 

I never thought Royal should have cancelled July sailings 2 months ago. I thought that they should have cancelled mid-May. Canceling people’s sailings under a 30 day mark and then announcing test cruises sending TAs in chaos while people still believed that they would sail somehow on a ship before test cruise is not acceptable and I’m sorry shows a disregard for the peripheral plans that needed to be cancelled and changed in a summer with higher demand for travel. Prices rose for alternate options while Royal delayed announcements and had customer service reps lie to their customers especially on last Thursday when Bayley announced tear sailings. 
 

I appreciate you pointing out other side and I agree with you to the extent of the timing of the July testing and cancellation announcements. It could/should have been handled much better. 

22 minutes ago, alamode123 said:

While there have been no peer reviewed articles specific for COVID, adding plexiglass as part of a multi faceted approach does reduce covid contact.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200908/can-plexiglass-stop-covid

Lol.. you are a funny one. You dismiss Smokey’s studies as not being peer reviewed yet you post some link that is not peer reviewed. I’m sorry… I can’t take you seriously. And the link you posted says nothing about the virus being airborne 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/jvchamary/2020/10/23/covid19-coronavirus-aerosols/amp/

it’s ok… I used to believe in magic as well… 

11 minutes ago, alamode123 said:

Nothing in this vaccine has any material that could potentially cause side effects down the road. It produces a protein found on the surface of the covid-19 virus, and is out of your system within a week. (Molecular ganatics and molecular biology degree)

All that doesn't mean you shouldn't have a choice in taking it, but there should be ramifications if you choose not to, one of which is businesses choosing to allow only vaccinated patrons.

Lol… no side effects. I guess we will just forget that the J&J vaccine had to be paused and they are currently investigating heart inflammation for ages 12-16 that have had vaccine 

You are funny for someone to talk about science and yet ignore it. 

17 minutes ago, alamode123 said:

Then there's science. Science isn't an opinion. It's true whether you trust it or not. 

If you choose to cruise, or go anywhere for that matter, without being vaccinated, you are dramatically increasing the threat of infection to others.

Since the cruiseline chooses not to insist that everyone is vaccinated, they must treat everyone as unvaccinated. That means masks 100 percent of the time out of your cabin, plexiglass everywhere, social distancing etc.

Plexiglass is not science. Plexiglass does not stop virus that spreads through air. 

25 minutes ago, Josh C said:

I agree.. but the media doesn’t care about that - nor does a public wanting to resume life as normal and “cruise ship covid outbreak) is the leading and trending stories.. saying nothing.. about the CDC saying.. I told you so. One case or 1000.. doesn’t matter when it comes to cruise lines unfortunately. I don’t like it, and I don’t think it’s fair but it’s what we have - I would be ecstatic if I’m wrong.  

I don’t disagree with you at all. 
 

when it happens, and it will, it will be a test for all. If only we had a responsible, fact driven media that cared more about actual reporting than pushing a given narrative. 
 

what would be good when the first Covid case appears on a US based ship is for media to report it, put it in context and having an expert on explaining why it’s not the end of the world and cruising shouldn’t be shut down again. 
 

I dare to dream….but alas it’s just a dream 

10 minutes ago, Josh C said:

This right here is the issue. Regardless of if it’s fair or not, ONE case.. and the media will go bonkers, which will provide those that aren’t knowledgeable about cruising an incorrect narrative and create public pressure to halt cruising. We’ll see replays of Ruby and Diamond Princess non stop. The risk, of allowing unvaccinated adults who CAN get the vaccine on a cruise ship far outweighs any potential benefit IMO

But…it’s not a matter of “if” but “when” there will be Covid on a ship.

Panic porn and click bait are good for metrics and ratings and unfortunately the general population fails to put cases of Covid into context because the media never provides details as to the case of Covid 

And sadly, it’s ignorant public pressure because of the conditioning done by the media. People need to be told that Covid is here to stay and is on the way to being endemic and is treatable in 99.90% of cases 

I am not happy with Royal either with their communication more specifically lack thereof. 
 

I get they are in a fluid situation and they have been shutdown for over a year now but to wait so long to announce their plans for July/August sailings is unacceptable. Especially, when the president/CEO of company gets on FB and announces test sailings on cruises BEFORE cancelling said sailings was truly a PR blunder and bad business move. 
 

AND, I see that no test sailing for Odyssey has officially been announced but selling July 3rd sailing. Less than 30 days out and they are very presumptuous that test sailing will happen and approved all within 30 days. No much room for error if the CDC identifies issues 

2 hours ago, CruiseGus said:

Much like masks were never to protect myself as much as it was to protect others

I’m sorry but if you were not sick and wearing a mask, you were never protecting others especially if you previously had Covid or vaccinated

Unvaccinated does not necessarily mean one does not have same level of immunity as one who is vaccinated. People are conflating this issue. 
 

People who have had Covid have some form of immunity. There is still a debate on how long it lasts.

Also, there is a % of people who have natural immunity 

lastly, there are small children who have not been shown to be vectors of virus spread

And it’s ridiculous to think the unvaccinated are a threat to vaccinated crew like the ones who “drive” the ship. As if they were to get a breakthrough case of Covid, they would drop dead in an instance. 
 

the biggest issue I see as others have said is disruption of the cruise, being confined to my cabin, having the cruise being cut short, etc 

BUT, an 100% vaccinated cruise is unrealistic. Even if FL didn’t have its vaccine law, the cruise lines are faced with a hard business decision. As a business that caters to families, how long do you want to limit your customer base? How much are you willing to anger your loyal customer base who are families with small children? Especially if a major competitor is allowing what you disallow? 
 

Mixed vaccinated cruises are going to be the way things will happen with the restart from FL. The cruise lines have weighed the business risks and have decided. 
 

The biggest test will be when the first case of Covid on a cruise ship happens. It’s going to happen regardless of how many ppl are vaccinated on a given cruise 

16 minutes ago, Josh C said:

But how many of these families would be willing to risk their children on a ship with a mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons. I think Fain's previous statements encouraged families that vaccinations for everyone eligible would be required and therefore would make the environment safer. I know several families that are now seriously re-considering going on their cruise this summer, solely because of this. 

At the end of the day, Royal has painted themselves into a no-win scenario. Their question now is, which decision costs them less current and future passengers.

Definitely a no win situation for Royal with no easy answers for sure which DeSantis made it even more difficult in the short run. Government ruins everything from the CDC to the state of FL

You are right… limit your business to a portion of potential customers vs losing customers by making same decision. Hard to know which is more risky for business long term 

People also need to keep in mind that royal has seen the amount of children under 12 on their booked summer sailings and realized that 95% vaccinated passengers was not going to happen and if they wanted to obtain that % they would have had to cancel even more cruises and then rebooked with vaccine requirement. Just one more logistical nightmare to deal with in an already challenging summer 

AND there is still a game of chicken with the FL law which may take awhile to be resolved. So as a business, do you really want to roll the dice that DeSantis “blinks” and carves out an exception for cruise lines. Celebrity is already taking that gamble when DeSantis is still digging his heels in and posturing.

lastly, royal wouldn’t be spending the amount of cash they are for test cruises if they had confidence in

a. That the could meet the CDC thresholds for summer sailings from FL. Alaska cruises are easier to meet because of less children 

b. That the FL law issue could be resolved in time for early July cruises

This is a matter of business now and of course, Royal wants to get cruising as fast as possible and can’t afford lose the month of July when they can take alternate measures.

but as mentioned, the biggest risk now with unvaccinated is an outbreak that would be an end to all cruises this summer 

1 hour ago, Josh C said:

I would think so, I know October bookings on Indy are being moved to Odyssey - but Royal is sending emails with all the details.. ymmv on how fast you get it tho. 

Just curious, what were the itineraries on the Independence? 7 night sailings? Ports?

I wonder how they picked the independence for moving people to Odyssey vs other ships 

you know like moving a certain July 17 sailing of the symphony to a July sailing in odyssey… lil

13 minutes ago, Kaitlyntk said:

This might be a dumb question, but is it possible to switch from the Symphony July 3rd sailing that was cancelled today to the July 3rd Odyssey? I wasn't sure if that was possible or not.

8 minutes ago, caitlynambrai said:

Not a dumb question. I'm hoping to jump over from my Allure sailing on the 25th.

I would think that you couldnt automatically switch over because of lift and shift pertains to sailings in 2022

What i think you would have to do, and I will yield to other posters who have more experience, is to book the Odyssey sailing. I dont think you could get refunds or FCCs in time to apply to new Odyssey sailing.

And i heard a rumor that admittedly I havent seen confirmed that Royal is already switching certain sailings over to Odyssey. Dont take that as Gospel. 

I booked my Symphony cruise for a party of four

Me, Wife, Step Daughter #1, 13 years old, Step Daughter # 2, 20 years old

Of course the wife and I paid for all passengers on this cruise.

Reading Royal's FCC rules, my understanding is that each person of my party will be issued individual FCC if I chose 125% FCC

However, step daughter #2 will be studying abroad starting in the Fall. 

From what I read, each person in cabin must chose same option, either refund or 125% FCC. Is this true, can i not chose refund for step daughter #2 and FCC for the rest of us?

Lastly, is it still the case that FCCs are not transferrable unless over 70 or under 12?

I dont understand that if I paid for whole party then why are refunds/FCC treated separately?

7 minutes ago, Phoenix said:

Online and you notice it on the app.

I saw it in the app previously but I never saw it announced. Looking online now. 

Interesting